Is it time to start to be worried about Scoot being a bust?

[Shem]

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[monopoman]

Scoot is starting to really make some nice strides, putting together his first real stretch of consecutive strong games. He’s aware of it too… calling it “stacking good days”. Here’s a link to an article about it in The Oregonian:

https://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/2024/02/trail-blazers-scoot-henderson-continues-stacking-days.html?outputType=amp

One thing Billups mentioned in the article was how Scoot’s decisiveness was key in his last 30 point game. I can’t believe I’m saying this… but I agree with Chauncey.

Scoot has looked a step or two slow all year. Not athletically as much as mentally (telegraphing passes, dribbling into help defenders, taking awkward shots at the rim against collapsing bigs, etc…). He’s clearly still processing the game and adjusting to how fast the NBA is played, especially by more experienced players who are used to the speed at which decisions are made at that level.

Given that he’s a PG tasked with running an NBA offense, it’s understandable this will be a major learning curve area. It’s very nice to see that he seems to be adjusting to the pace of the game. He will look like a whole different player when he instinctively anticipates what to do versus reacting to what to do.

I think the kid is gonna be just fine in the long run.

Consistency is a huge issue for most rookies, even great ones typically have trouble stringing together good games over a long stretch.

Even if Scoot is having issues doing that he is in very good company when only like 10-15 guys in the history of the NBA looked like true superstars in their rookie season. I bet if we look at 19 year old rookies only that number drastically goes down.

[Shem]

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[JasonStern]

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[zzaj]

I bet if we look at 19 year old rookies only that number drastically goes down

I’ve been mulling this…that list HAS to be very small. The only two PGs I could come up with in recent memory are Starbury and Kyrie…who IIRC both came in at 19.

[monopoman]

I bet if we look at 19 year old rookies only that number drastically goes down

I’ve been mulling this…that list HAS to be very small. The only two PGs I could come up with in recent memory are Starbury and Kyrie…who IIRC both came in at 19.

Well I meant even in general 19 year old rookie that looks like a superstar in his rookie season. Even if you expand this to every single position you are talking like 4-5 guys at most. When I mean superstar I mean they have to look extremely good so good they are almost a shoe in for the all-star game as a rookie.

So for instance I would not count say Dame in this category he was quite good in his rookie season but nowhere near as good as Dame 3 years later. I realize Dame was not 19 in his rookie year, just pointing out when I mean superstar I mean a rookie season at that high of a level.

[zzaj]

I bet if we look at 19 year old rookies only that number drastically goes down

I’ve been mulling this…that list HAS to be very small. The only two PGs I could come up with in recent memory are Starbury and Kyrie…who IIRC both came in at 19.

Well I meant even in general 19 year old rookie that looks like a superstar in his rookie season. Even if you expand this to every single position you are talking like 4-5 guys at most. When I mean superstar I mean they have to look extremely good so good they are almost a shoe in for the all-star game as a rookie.

So for instance I would not count say Dame in this category he was quite good in his rookie season but nowhere near as good as Dame 3 years later. I realize Dame was not 19 in his rookie year, just pointing out when I mean superstar I mean a rookie season at that high of a level.

To your point, if people are worried about Scoot not putting up monster/superstar numbers as a 19 year old rookie--don't be. Not many superstars put up huge numbers their rookie seasons, no matter their age, and most of them are bigs. This includes players like Jordan, Dirk, KG, Tatum, Harden, Tmac, Kobe, Kawhi, etc...And there are like 2 or 3 in history at 19.

Luka, Shaq, Zion, Lebron, Duncan...those are a few that come to mind that did, but I think only Luka was 19.

[GEE]

More than half-way through the season, and I think Scoot's development is going along quite well. I think he got humbled at the beginning of the season, but continues to be coachable and is learning how to become a baller in this league. I hope to see him get lots of minutes closing out this season. If healthy, I like what we have with Simons, Sharpe & Scoot getting all of the future PG & SG minutes. Brogden can mentor if he wants... or Cronin can trade him if HE wants, but I like what we have (And potentially could have).

Starting: Simons / Sharpe / Grant / RW3 / Ayton

Bench: Scoot / Thybulle / Walker

Solid Deep Bench: Too lazy to list

With good picks, Brogden's contract, several good young (expendable) players and plenty of time to upgrade before next summer...

[Perishable517]

I’m pretty legit concerned at this point. It’s still so early, but I’m not seeing any signs of him being a premier player in the league or anywhere near the DRose level talent he was comped to predraft. Not seeing anything special he brings on the floor, even in a glimmer of where it could be.

At this point, I think his ceiling is probably somewhere in the DeAaron Fox level? - maybe that’s too much even?…. Which would still be acceptable but a pretty far cry from what was hyped and wouldn’t be the best PG in this draft class.

My hope for Scoot is Chauncey gets him back in the starting lineup. You’ve gone this far investing in him with that pick, don’t half ass it now.

No. Not at all.

Sent from my CPH2417 using RealGM mobile app

[Norm2953]

It'll be interesting to see how Scoot fares in the remaining 28 games left in the season.

How he fares might drive what Portland does this off season for his fit with Simons is already
showing the defensive limitations in Portland's BC if Simons is his backcourt partner

[GEE]

This reminds me exactly of how Simons got the reins, when Dame went down with his injury. I imagine Simons will be racking up the DNPs from here on out, which should be great for Scoot. What he does with the opportunity... we'll see.

[Norm2953]

I keep thinking of how Ant played in his breakout season when he smart pros like Hart and Winslow to
help him, if he had to play PG.

Scoot like Ant might be helped with a vet front court player as opposed to more youth, especially if
the Blazers trade Brogdon this off season

[mighty_duck]

I keep thinking of how Ant played in his breakout season when he smart pros like Hart and Winslow to
help him, if he had to play PG.

Scoot like Ant might be helped with a vet front court player as opposed to more youth, especially if
the Blazers trade Brogdon this off season

In related news, Justise has just been released by the Raptors. He seemed to have recovered from the season ending injury he had last year, He's played 19 games with their G league team, averaging 17 and 7 on 27 minutes a night.
Not a bad locker room guy to have around...

[DusterBuster]

I’m pretty legit concerned at this point. It’s still so early, but I’m not seeing any signs of him being a premier player in the league or anywhere near the DRose level talent he was comped to predraft. Not seeing anything special he brings on the floor, even in a glimmer of where it could be.

At this point, I think his ceiling is probably somewhere in the DeAaron Fox level? - maybe that’s too much even?…. Which would still be acceptable but a pretty far cry from what was hyped and wouldn’t be the best PG in this draft class.

My hope for Scoot is Chauncey gets him back in the starting lineup. You’ve gone this far investing in him with that pick, don’t half ass it now.

No. Not at all.

Sent from my CPH2417 using RealGM mobile app

Huh?

[m0ng0]

My God this 19 great old is not Magic Johnson yet.... what a friggin bust, let's trade him because clearly at 19b he does not have it. Thank you genius

[m0ng0]

So what is his deal this week? Its getting concerning

[HoopsFanAZ]

1. Scoot is young and did not get developed in the GLeague. IMHO, he makes me think of Billups as a PG. I’m squinting to see it.

2. Simons can show some “want to” on D, but becoming a neutral effect on D is a HIGH bar for him. As a bucket getter at 3 levels, he’s perfect for a contender or wanna-be contender. I don’t want the Blazers’ PG as their high scorer but a negative on D. And I just don’t see him as the leader of the team. Scoot may become the leader.

3. Sharpe is the starting SG next year. It’s Scoot vs. Ant. Drafting Scoot meant DAME was gone. I hope Brogdon is the starter to begin next year and Scoot is by the end.

Trading away their high scorer before the battle with Scoot is done seems too early. It’s currently in Simon’s favor; HOWEVER, I hope Ant is traded during the draft and the Blazers get a good return. Grant’s value is stable, and he’s the next I want traded — he’s 30. Thybulle will be getting passed up, soon. Time Lord needs good health.

[Wizenheimer]

I don't think Scoot will be a bust. He's fast, athletic, and strong. But clearly, all the pre-draft yappity-yap about Scoot being the #1 pick in any draft that didn't have a Wemby or Lebron was insane

there was some talk about who would be a better player: Scoot or Amen Thompson. The early returns clearly favor Amen, and it's not close at all in the rookie comparison:

FG%: Amen .539....Scoot .372
3ptFG%: Amen ..157....Scoot ..295
2ptFG%: Amen .611....Scoot .409
FT%: Amen .664....Scoot .822

eFG%: Amen .551....Scoot .420
TS%: Amen .577....Scoot .477
FG% at Rim: Amen .739....Scoot .491
points/shot: Amen 1.32....Scoot 1.07

PER: Amen 17.5....Scoot 8.6
FT Rate: Amen .333....Scoot .283
Reb Rate: Amen 15.4%....Scoot 6.4%
Assist Rate: Amen 16.1%....Scoot 27.0%
Turnover Rate: Amen 15.8%....Scoot 18.5%
Winshares/48: Amen +.139....Scoot -.051
BPM: Amen +1.7....Scoot -6.6
VORP: Amen +0.9....Scoot -1.5

Amen has demonstrated the flaw(s) we pretty much knew about and that's shooting touch. He's been terrible at shooting three's and his FT's needs a lot of work. But for a rookie, even with those flaws, he has posted pretty good shooting efficiency: 53.9% FG's; 61.1% 2ptFG's; 55.1% efG and a 57.7% TS. And he absolutely crushes Scoot in FG% at the rim; a 73.9% conversion rate is excellent for a wing, especially considering that's where he takes half of his shots

Amen's PER would rank 2nd on the Blazers behind Ayton. His rebound rate of 15.4% is quite solid...better than Josh Hart last season. AND, he's showing the defensive ability that was predicted as his strength. He leads Houston in DBPM at +2.6; and his defensive rating is 5.7 points better than his team. That's exceptional for a wing. Meanwhile Scoot ranks 13th on the Blazers in DBPM among 'rotational' players, only ahead of Simons. And his defensive rating is 3.5 points worse that the team

Amen's defense might become even more valuable if the NBA follows thru on the intention of giving more leeway to defense

I was actually surprised to see Amen's marks. I guess I assumed he was still struggling like he did his first month or so. Other than his 3p and FT shooting, I think Amen is posting really good marks for a rookie. If I was a Houston fan I'd be really happy with him

I still hold out hope for Scoot but I will admit I have a hell of a lot more doubts about him than I did 4 months ago

[JasonStern]

The player comparison argument between Scoot and Amen is inherently flawed due to their difference in positions. I think we're back to the Ayton dilemma. If Scoot and Ayton weren't hyped as generational talents, nobody would be hating on them. But the hype made expectations unrealistic, and now we are dealing with two young but flawed players. I truly hope their games evolve, but don't view them as failures at this point.

[GreenRiddler]

I still think Scoot will be fine but Amen on the wing with Ant and Sharpe would’ve been amazing.