Is it time to start to be worried about Scoot being a bust?

TheDraftGuy · Post #41 » by **TheDraftGuy** » Thu Dec 7, 2023 10:07 am

Bust is a strong word.

I'd say he doesn't look like a superstar. People shouldn't make excuses for him because there is no precedence for a modern superstar PG to be drafted at 19 years of age and not show 'superstar traits' from Day 1.

Trae, Kyrie, Wall, Rose, Ja....all drafted at 19 y/o as they entered the league. All of them put up better numbers and showed more flash in the first 10-15 games.

Scoot can still be Baron Davis, Deron Willliams, Chauncey Billups but I think the expectations of AI, Rose, Morant should be tempered.

Waynearchetype · Post #42 » by **Waynearchetype** » Thu Dec 7, 2023 5:04 pm

Eh, Lamelo, Fox, Jamal Murray all looked real bad their first half of the year. I think Fox according to most advanced stats was the worst starter in the NBA for his rookie season.

His shooting is real bad but seems to keep getting a little better every game. His defense is way better than advertised, even with the foul trouble which will clean up. His turnovers are slowly getting better as well.

He's definitely not going to be a superstar offensive player, but I'm not sure he was ever going to be. He might be an elite facilitator and I am pretty confident he will have impactful defense. I think instead of superstar your looking more at a peak Rondo or Jrue. Is that a bust? Maybe if you got caught up in the hype during the draft. I don't think so though.

Blazinaway · Post #43 » by **Blazinaway** » Thu Dec 7, 2023 6:57 pm

Waynearchetype wrote:Eh, Lamelo, Fox, Jamal Murray all looked real bad their first half of the year. I think Fox according to most advanced stats was the worst starter in the NBA for his rookie season.

His shooting is real bad but seems to keep getting a little better every game. His defense is way better than advertised, even with the foul trouble which will clean up. His turnovers are slowly getting better as well.

He's definitely not going to be a superstar offensive player, but I'm not sure he was ever going to be. He might be an elite facilitator and I am pretty confident he will have impactful defense. I think instead of superstar your looking more at a peak Rondo or Jrue. Is that a bust? Maybe if you got caught up in the hype during the draft. I don't think so though.

I mean if he's peak Rondo or Jrue I think we'd be very happy with that, I don't see superstar but I see potential to be a very solid PG and I will take that. If he is a good defender and distributor and adequate scorer then we are set at PG.

monopoman · Post #44 » by **monopoman** » Sat Dec 9, 2023 2:39 am

I still think he has the potential to be an all-star the real test will come how he looks in the second or third season. I am blown away at how much trouble he is having finishing around the rim and it seems like a slight adjustment there could work wonders.

People keep worrying about his outside shooting and while that needs work I am blown away at how many times he ends up missing when he drives the lane.

m0ng0 · Post #45 » by **m0ng0** » Sat Dec 9, 2023 5:50 am

give him time, he will be damn good

taufblazers33 · Post #46 » by **taufblazers33** » Sat Dec 9, 2023 2:47 pm

Sinobas · Post #47 » by **Sinobas** » Sat Dec 9, 2023 3:27 pm

I think so, because his most glaring issue is something so fundamental: he's a terrible shooter, and not just from 3, but from all over the court.

Would be interesting if someone could pull stats on what the average rate of 3pt improvement is for an NBA player over the course of their career. I don't think it's anywhere near enough to make Scoot a non bust. In other worse, we're banking on the long shot that he takes a quantum leap, one most players don't make, even if they come into the league very young (remember Telfair, Webster, Outlaw...)

Scoots TS% is 40%. Compare that to any number of guards that are considered to be not good offensively. It's really really bad.

BlazersBroncos · Post #48 » by **BlazersBroncos** » Sat Dec 9, 2023 10:57 pm

Sinobas wrote:I think so, because his most glaring issue is something so fundamental: he's a terrible shooter, and not just from 3, but from all over the court.

Would be interesting if someone could pull stats on what the average rate of 3pt improvement is for an NBA player over the course of their career. I don't think it's anywhere near enough to make Scoot a non bust. In other worse, we're banking on the long shot that he takes a quantum leap, one most players don't make, even if they come into the league very young (remember Telfair, Webster, Outlaw...)

Scoots TS% is 40%. Compare that to any number of guards that are considered to be not good offensively. It's really really bad.

Becoming even a league average shooter will be a monumental task for Scoot - especially from 3. When a guy late blooms into a 3PT shooter - I like to use the classic example of Brook Lopez - its generally correlated w/ being a historically good FT shooter (Brook was always in at least the high 70's from the line).

Right now the guys that Scoots rookie season statistically, both in raw and advanced stats, is close to are Muiday and Exum. Its not good company.

Norm2953 · Post #49 » by **Norm2953** » Sun Dec 10, 2023 2:49 am

One has to wonder if ultimately Scoot will have to start for lots of guys just have to start
in order to be mentally into the game.

GreenRiddler · Post #50 » by **GreenRiddler** » Sun Dec 10, 2023 9:29 am

A.M Hoops had a great video on this topic. It is really just indicative of how poorly the G League develops guys more than Scoot being a bust. He has shown great flashes and does facilitate and put pressure on NBA defenses to collapse. He is a great facilitator and will probably top off at 9asts a game as a season best eventually. Garland and Fox are great examples of guards who really struggled their first year.

The PG position is tough to learn as a rookie more so as a 19 year old. Scoot will be fine and I still think he ends up all-star caliber once he adapts to the NBA.

I actually think him coming to us is great for him since we have 2 top of the line 3 point threats in Ant and Shaedon he can focus on rim pressure and being a facilitator while developing his touch on floaters and mid range shots to keep the defense honest. I can see him topping out at a below average 34-35% three point shooter ala Fox.

Watch on YouTube

GreenRiddler · Post #51 » by **GreenRiddler** » Sun Dec 10, 2023 10:20 am

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=de%27aaron+fox+averging+in+his+first+12+games

Was it time to start worrying about Fox being a bust his first 12 games?

Sinobas · Post #52 » by **Sinobas** » Sun Dec 10, 2023 1:52 pm

It's incredibly rare for a player to develop into an all-star calibur player, after having as poor of a rookie campainge as Scoot is having. How many times has it even happened in NBA history? Gerald Wallace? Players improve sure, but Scoot is pond scum bad right now.

Of course, his rookie season isn't over, but we've seen enough to be worried certainly.

Dame Lizard · Post #53 » by **Dame Lizard** » Mon Dec 11, 2023 4:46 pm

I'm concerned at his inability to get to the rim. I'm less concerned at his inability to finish at the rim, as I can definitely see that improving (Dame was poor his rookie season - testament to him not facing many elite defensive big men in Weber State's college conference).

His handle needs improving big time. Shaedon has improved significantly from his rookie to sophomore seasons, so hopefully Scoot sees a similar jump.

And yeah, that jump shot is bad. He keeps shooting them though. I think he's trying to play too much like Dame, Chris Paul and Steph relative to his skillset.....

monopoman · Post #54 » by **monopoman** » Tue Dec 12, 2023 1:04 am

I saw the stats for rookie Westbrook and Scoot after 12 games and the numbers were eerily similar. We are talking down the board they were almost identical.

So yeah writing him off is way too early and he has looked better since coming back from injury and getting the contacts, sure he still has a ways to go but he has been more effective since then. Westbrook also came in at age 20 meanwhile Scoot is 19 so that first year Westbrook had more basketball experience.

Post #55 » by **The Sebastian Express** » Tue Dec 12, 2023 4:54 am

monopoman wrote:I saw the stats for rookie Westbrook and Scoot after 12 games and the numbers were eerily similar. We are talking down the board they were almost identical.

So yeah writing him off is way too early and he has looked better since coming back from injury and getting the contacts, sure he still has a ways to go but he has been more effective since then. Westbrook also came in at age 20 meanwhile Scoot is 19 so that first year Westbrook had more basketball experience.

He just needs reps and to continue to learn to adjust his insane speed. I think my biggest concern about Scoot is his pull-up shots, you see his lower base twist a lot. Which is so different than his catch and shoot. I think that's fixable over time. I think he truly loves basketball and has a great work ethic, so I imagine this summer is going to be spent on left-hand development, lower base and footwork on pull-ups and touch around the rim (which imo is also fixed as he learns to truly use his speed in the nba- sometimes he's just going so fast he's got all this momentum in him).

Shem · Post #56 » by **Shem** » Thu Dec 14, 2023 5:15 am

Watch on YouTube

mighty_duck · Post #57 » by **mighty_duck** » Thu Dec 14, 2023 7:41 am

His athleticism is good, but not elite. It was enough for him to finish in the g-league, but he can't simply expect to get a clean shot in the NBA by athleticism only. He will have to dedicate himself to finding other ways to finish - fakes, quick change of speed and direction, using contact to freeze or push off his defender, mastering unpredictable angles. Both Dame and CJ were really good at that, even if both were inferior athletes to Scoot. These are skills he can learn.

His 3 seems to be streaky - either hot or ice-cold. In the 8 games since his return from injury, he's had 4 games where he shot 0% from 3, while the other 4 he shot -75%, 75%, 66%, 40%. Small sample size of course. The optimist in me hopes he will eventually learn to can what worked in the hot games.

Waynearchetype · Post #58 » by **Waynearchetype** » Thu Dec 14, 2023 5:30 pm

Theres nothing pushing players in the G-League to excel. Before the draft I thought that going up against grown men would accelerate their growth. After watching Scoot play, and looking into other G-league-to-NBA players, I'm realizing that the competitive drive to collegiate players is just so much higher. They have to perform, the crowd won't let them half ass it. The coach needs them to perform because his job depends on it.

Theres so much about Scoot that looks elite. He's fast as flip, he's huge, he has great court vision. But it often looks like its his first game in front of a crowd, dealing with pressure. He plays scared, or timid, or plain indecisive.

So yeah, i'd agree that G-league kind of set him behind on the development curve. But everything that made him an elite prospect is still there, theres still hope for it. And he shows that in his play in some games. So I'm still hopeful.

Skybox · Post #59 » by **Skybox** » Sat Dec 16, 2023 12:23 pm

He’s a star…it’ll click. Hopefully, Billups doesn’t break him down. Imo, he’s done nothing to show he’s a good coach. Their “partnership” will determine this team’s ceiling, imo. Calling him #3 is an insult…he would’ve been #1 in a lot of drafts. The shame is that all the top picks are children, so the vast majority face serious developmental delays and growing pains that even a 2-year major college player wouldn’t experience, to the same degree. The G league and its lesser knockoffs is not showing the developmental promise that it was supposed to…it’s glorified AAU. I’m old enough to remember when rookies were expected to be good.

I like POR’s young core…a couple more picks and a couple of good moves…

Skybox · Post #60 » by **Skybox** » Sat Dec 16, 2023 2:18 pm

The more I see of Sharpe - I get SGA vibes...one of those guys that won't be rushed and gets what he wants. That's a Fire & Ice backcourt with Scoot's Ja vibe. It's coming.