Bucks picks

[GreenRiddler]

How valuable are Milwaukee’s picks?

2028 (pick swap)—impacted by pick owed to Chi.
2029
2030 (pick swap)

All unprotected.

With Milwaukee collapsing under itself. Dame getting really old and Giannis probably leaving for another team on a year or two. We are looking at another bottom feeder Bucks team with multiple years possibly being in play for a top 3-5 pick. That would be at the mid to late part of the decade.

If Scoot Sharpe and whoever we draft this year are still here and good they’d all be from 23-26 years old not yet in their primes. Ant and Ayton would be in their primes (29-30).

[Dame Lizard]

How valuable are Milwaukee’s picks?

2028 (pick swap)—impacted by pick owed to Chi.
2029
2030 (pick swap)

All unprotected.

With Milwaukee collapsing under itself. Dame getting really old and Giannis probably leaving for another team on a year or two. We are looking at another bottom feeder Bucks team with multiple years possibly being in play for a top 3-5 pick. That would be at the mid to late part of the decade.

If Scoot Sharpe and whoever we draft this year are still here and good they’d all be from 23-26 years old not yet in their primes. Ant and Ayton would be in their primes (29-30).

I've always thought that they were excellent assets.

I'm scared about the Chicago pick robbing us of a high 2028 draft pick though. I'd give strong consideration to trading the 2024 GSW pick to Chicago this year to waive the future pick liability.

[Norm2953]

It would be horrible if the Blazers were still tanking in 2027

[Wizenheimer]

the pick could be pretty valuable. Most of the current Bucks players will have aged out. But 2029 is a long ways away and a lot can happen between now and then

as far as the pick swaps, generally I don't think they are worth much. They don't have high trade value and there is no guarantee at all that Portland will be a better team in 2027-28. And if Portland is, it could be that Chicago would own Portland's pick

IIRC I read somewhere that only about 30-35% of swaps actually convey

[tester551]

How valuable are Milwaukee’s picks?

2028 (pick swap)—impacted by pick owed to Chi.
2029
2030 (pick swap)

All unprotected.

With Milwaukee collapsing under itself. Dame getting really old and Giannis probably leaving for another team on a year or two. We are looking at another bottom feeder Bucks team with multiple years possibly being in play for a top 3-5 pick. That would be at the mid to late part of the decade.

If Scoot Sharpe and whoever we draft this year are still here and good they’d all be from 23-26 years old not yet in their primes. Ant and Ayton would be in their primes (29-30).

I've always thought that they were excellent assets.

I'm scared about the Chicago pick robbing us of a high 2028 draft pick though. I'd give strong consideration to trading the 2024 GSW pick to Chicago this year to waive the future pick liability.

Agreed.

If/when the Portland pick conveys, it would likely be for a pick in the 15-18 range. So the question becomes is the #17 pick in '26 or '27 a better asset than the #13 this year?
I would say most likely yes....

[BlazersBroncos]

I would love to give the Bulls the GSW pick for our own - this draft is really poor overally.

I always thought the MIL future picks were going to be worth a ton. Their core is aging, even Giannis is ticking over 30, and its going to be hard for them to replace their upper tier talent in FA due to cap issues and being a generally PDX caliber small market when it comes to attracting FA.

[DusterBuster]

I would love to give the Bulls the GSW pick for our own - this draft is really poor overally.

I always thought the MIL future picks were going to be worth a ton. Their core is aging, even Giannis is ticking over 30, and its going to be hard for them to replace their upper tier talent in FA due to cap issues and being a generally PDX caliber small market when it comes to attracting FA.

Why? I get it's a poor draft, but if we're all being honest with ourselves, the chance that pick ever conveys to the Bulls as a 1st rounder is rare at this point.

I know Norm said it would be horrible if the Blazers were still tanking in 2027, and while I won't say they'll be "tanking" per say, I don't currently see how they have a path to being a playoff/playin team by that year right now.

For there to be any chance of that Scoot has to improve by leaps and bounds, the team needs to stay healthy, they need to get a better coach in asap so he/she can have a year or two to unwind all the bad habits I think Billups has inadvertently put into place with his inexperience, Ayton needs to be doing what he's doing for a full season, they probably need to trade one of Sharpe or Simons and they need to hit on at least one more of their lottery picks this year or next for a player who's going to be something high-level more immediately than Scoot turned out to be.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I doubt team owners have an appetite for many more years in the lottery but I also don't believe in trading a certain outcome for an uncertain one. I think one is more likely to over think things and hurt themselves than they are to call it 100 and come out ahead, especially when looking at the managerial history of this team's leaders.

We are never in danger of giving Chicago a lottery pick so I don't know why we would voluntarily hand them one. Yeah the top of this class is pretty weak but there is some depth and nothing to say that depth in the mid first round will be any better in some uncertain number of years in the future. Maybe that class ends up being top heavy but drops off fast after that. Way too early to start overthinking those outcomes IMO.

And if the cards fall exactly as some of you fear, where the Bucks can swap us a super high pick in 2028 but that is also the first year we get out of the lottery, then we can probably find a way to work a deal and still capture some of that value then (even if we have to overpay Chicago to free up our pick) but that requires things to fall in such a precise way that it would be silly to hinge our current decision on that unlikely future.

[Brandon-Clyde]

We have plenty of second round picks. Offer up one of our seconds this year and a future second which is basically what Chicago will likely end up anyway. They just get the seconds earlier and at least one that is fairly decent.

[BlazersBroncos]

We have plenty of second round picks. Offer up one of our seconds this year and a future second which is basically what Chicago will likely end up anyway. They just get the seconds earlier and at least one that is fairly decent.

Would you take that deal from Chicago if we owned their LP FRP until 2027? Hell no would be my response.

Teams are not trading a owned FRP, regardless of protection, for a few SRP today.

[tester551]

We have plenty of second round picks. Offer up one of our seconds this year and a future second which is basically what Chicago will likely end up anyway. They just get the seconds earlier and at least one that is fairly decent.

Would you take that deal from Chicago if we owned their LP FRP until 2027? Hell no would be my response.

Teams are not trading a owned FRP, regardless of protection, for a few SRP today.

Agreed...

But the pick is owed/protected until the 2028 draft. 4-more seasons.

[Brandon-Clyde]

We have plenty of second round picks. Offer up one of our seconds this year and a future second which is basically what Chicago will likely end up anyway. They just get the seconds earlier and at least one that is fairly decent.

Would you take that deal from Chicago if we owned their LP FRP until 2027? Hell no would be my response.

Teams are not trading a owned FRP, regardless of protection, for a few SRP today.

At the moment I would value that pick as a pair of second round picks since that is what they are likely to receive. What people keep offering is a guaranteed first ( last year people were suggesting the pick that became Murray) and now the Golden State pick for a pick that may become two seconds. So in other words a first for two seconds. And if it ever does convey the highest that pick could be is 14th and the Golden State pick is higher than that. I just don't see giving up a first for a maybe first but also maybe seconds. If Chicago holds out for a first I hang up the phone and keep the guaranteed first. If Chicago is reasonable I might include an extra second or some other small value but that's it. Chicago can either take current value or they can hope that future value is greater but at the risk of only receiving similar value to what is being offered today.

[Blazinaway]

a question, can we unprotect that pick any time we want without Chi's approval. I mean totally unprotect and when would it have to be done? Before or during the season?

[DusterBuster]

We have plenty of second round picks. Offer up one of our seconds this year and a future second which is basically what Chicago will likely end up anyway. They just get the seconds earlier and at least one that is fairly decent.

Yeah, if the Bulls want to cash out early on that pick, this is the path for them doing so. Blazers at this point have no more pressure to pay off that pick in a hurry like they did pre-Dame trade demand.

[DusterBuster]

a question, can we unprotect that pick any time we want without Chi's approval. I mean totally unprotect and when would it have to be done? Before or during the season?

I would suspect whatever the Blazers do with it has to be OK’d by the Bulls since they own the rights.

[DusterBuster]

We have plenty of second round picks. Offer up one of our seconds this year and a future second which is basically what Chicago will likely end up anyway. They just get the seconds earlier and at least one that is fairly decent.

Would you take that deal from Chicago if we owned their LP FRP until 2027? Hell no would be my response.

Teams are not trading an owned FRP, regardless of protection, for a few SRP today.

Agreed. The perceived value of “a FRP” to make a deal look more palatable to the public even (if that pick is pretty weak) is probably worth more than cashing out early for them. If the Bulls were to make a “big” trade that required a couple of firsts going out, this is an easy way for them to throw that in and conversely an easy way for the other team to claim victory because they got “multiple FRPs”.

I will say also tho, the NBA is making a big push for the Second Round to be more of an event and for teams and fans to pay attention. Not saying this negates our previous point that I don’t see the Bulls trading it back to Portland, but I will be interested if the value of SRPs takes a noticeable bump in the coming seasons.

[BlazersBroncos]

Ya, I will say having control of this pick owed to CHI would be much more important if we were a good team wanting a full 3 picks / 3 swaps option avaliable should a star come on the market. As it stands as others have noted its pretty unlikely we are any good for a few years and clearly shouldnt be making 'star' moves so despite my earlier comment on moving the GSW FRP for our pick returned I now say screw it.

Think that was a moment of me coming off some draft scrutiny and hating this class, but EOD every class has talents.

[zzaj]

Answering the OP…

I’ve said from the beginning that taking advantage of the aging Bucks team so far out was the real value in the Lillard trade, and the thing that set it apart from the reported Miami deals.

It’s a HUGE swing, but it’s a swing that could pay massive dividends if the needle gets threaded. If Scoot becomes an average to above average PG, Sharpe hits 75% of his ceiling, and the team focuses on the thing Ayton does well, adding a very high unprotected first plus (potentially) more high unprotected firsts, could set the Blazers up for contention in the 2030s.

Lillard was a goner. Everyone knew that. I don’t doubt that Miami was lowballing Portland. IMO, trading an aging and increasingly prohibitively expensive player for ‘down the turnpike’ unknown assets was a smart move…at least vs. getting a more known package that might have gotten the Blazers close to the play-in, and another round of treadmilling.

Can it blow up in the Blazers’ face? Absolutely. Can it set them up for contention? Absolutely.

But nothing that got reported from the Lillard trade talks was going to put the Blazers anywhere close to contention. At least with the assets mentioned in the OP there’s a chance of that…

[monopoman]

The downside of the CHI pick we owe is we can't do a pick swap if we owe it. Sure if it wasn't for a potential pick swap we could just keep owing the pick and it might eventually become a 2nd but missing out on a pick swap, or being forced into some rough trade that year to get the pick back so we can do the pick swap is not ideal.

That is why they might just give up the GSW pick to get that pick back which allows more trade options, and potential pick swaps in the future.

[cdubbz]

It would be horrible if the Blazers were still tanking in 2027

I honestly see the rebuild as a 5 year project. Bucks 2028 picks should be the icing on the cake to get the Blazers to where OKC is now.
They've just got to nail these draft picks and trade assets now for more draft capitol. Keep key veterans to help with all the young guys.