"No changes" crowd: FALL '08 - 8 competing for 1 s

[mharris3]

With the great success the team has had - I find it hard to argue with the sentiment not to change anything. However, consider the urgency that if you don't make a 2:1, 3:2 or other move to reduce the roster - you're going to be faced with no real options in terms of retaining outside of next year's 1st rounder.

There is a separate thread on James Jones' option; but for the sake of argument let's say Portland manages to retain him. 13 of the 15 roster slots would be the same as the existing roster. Rudy Fernandez is likely to claim the 14th slot, and then you would have an excess of talent.

Consider:
2 Addt'l Overseas (Freeland, Koponen)
2 D-Leaguers (McRoberts, Green)
4 PICKS (1st round guaranteed; see below)

Current picks based on records:
PDX own #21
NYK #33 (Demetrius Nichols trade)
MEM #35 (Alexander Johnson trade)
IND #42 or PHX #57 (James White trade, not sure who gets to choose)

Ideally, you'd like to compress the roster; otherwise you're just throwing away this potential talent. Obviously, picks can be traded for futures or overseas - but we have to bring them in sometime ?? Right!!

[Mr Odd]

Yea, I know what youre talking about.
I was thinking about that the other day.

I cant really say whats going to happen
and theres a ton of ways it can go so
trying to figure it out hurts my head.


I have come down to one truth after
thinking about what could be, and that
truth is, its great to have options!!!!!!!!

[Billy]

It's certainly something Portland is going to have to look at.

When Freeland was picked the sentiment at the time was he'd play two years overseas and then Portland would reevaluate. Right now I'd say Portland doesn't have room for him, and I don't think they'd sweat over that. He still is a good trade piece, and although I'm not certain of this, I believe he still counts on Portland's cap to a degree. I'd say if they don't feel they can get him in by '09 they will move him to ensure there isn't any dead weight on that cap room.

Koponen I think was selected with next year in mind. Clearly there would be issues if they decide to bring him in. But IMO Portland will look at either trading/cutting Green to make room, or will decide to not bring Koponen over quite yet.

My guess that the Blazer that is most likely to be moved from this group is Jack. Although I'm not a fan of "clearing room" for a guy who hasn't played an NBA minute, considering Jack could be rendered moot with the advancement of Sergio (potentially), and the addition(s) of Rudy and Koponen, I think the odds of him being moved are pretty good.

Also I think Portland would love to move Darius, and I think they'd be willing to part with some of their non-core youth to do it if that was possible.

Knowing Pritchard, he will look to move up in the draft. What would a pick in the 20's, a second rounder or two, Green and/or McRoberts, Freeland, Jack and cash get you?

I really doubt he'll look to bring in 4 more via the draft, but of course it seemed like a virtual assurity that he wouldn't use the second round picks that yielded Green and McRoberts this year--so who really knows.

KP also seems to subscribe to the San Antonio Spurs guide to building an NBA franchise. San Antonio loves to draft and stash guys. Some of those guys we've never heard from again, others have been moved to help SA stay competitive, and a few have been brought over and found some success. I doubt as long as KP is GM that we'll see a stop to guys being drafted and kept overseas.

[Jsun947]

Well figuring who has contracts with us now we are 15 deep. I think we all know the plan is to bring over Rudy which makes it 16. Someone will have to be waived, cut, or traded.

Blake/Sergio/Green
Roy/Jack/Rudy
Jones/Webster/Miles
LA/Outlaw/Lafrentz/McRoberts
Przybilla/Frye/Oden

How about in the offseason we try to make a move like this?
Lafrentz, Miles, Jack, 2008 1st round pick for Stephon Marbury (Who we buy out).

That frees up 3 rosters spots. 2 of which we arn't really using (Lafrentz & Miles). Saves us our cap plan in 2009/2010. We can bring over Freeland and/or Kopenen to give us some additional depth while allowing them to get some PT in the D-League.

If that doesn't work we can try a similar move with Miles, Jack, maybe picks for Malik Rose...

[Dakotah612]

When obtaining future picks and compiling talent in Europe, I think Pritchard had in mind that all these pieces would give us flexibility in future trades. I think the Koponen pick is going to pay big dividends down the road. Freeland over Millsap still hurts.

[Wizenheimer]

First of all, clearing a roster spot for Rudy before he actually agrees to come over and signs a contract is goofy. Portland would have a couple of months after those events actually occured to decide on a course of action, whether it was a trade or waiving a player to open a roster spot.

And before portland uses assets like a rotation player or a possible lottery pick to move Miles, they need to see if any player will be a free agent in 2009 who they'd actually be interested in. That won't be clear till towards the beginning of next season.

The first trade I'd like to see portland attempt this off-season is to try and move up in the draft order. if they can't do that then making moves to expand cap-space MAY be in order.

I'm thinking portland would be better off by dumping the cap-space plan, and instead focusing on trades, draft picks, MLE signings, and re-signing their essential rotation players. Of course it's possible KP and Tom Penn are better at this then I am.

[TBpup]

Blake/Sergio/Green
Roy/Jack/Rudy
Jones/Webster/Miles
LA/Outlaw/Lafrentz/McRoberts
Przybilla/Frye/Oden

Blake/Sergio/Green (Green gone)
Roy/Jack/Rudy .......(Jack gone)
Jones/Webster/Miles (Miles gone)
LA/Outlaw/Lafrentz/McRoberts (LaFrentz gone)
Przybilla/Frye/Oden

That leaves:

Blake/Sergio
Roy/Rudy
Webster/Jones
LMA/Outlaw/Frye
Oden/Przybilla...with room for a draft pick(s) and whatever they get back in a trade. They may even buyout a player which will still count against the cap but remove him from the 15 man roster.

[BlackMamba]

more than who is available, it's more of a who is expendable.

set the roster and evaluate the players, more than their talent to more than if they fit the team.

[ebott]

How about in the offseason we try to make a move like this?
Lafrentz, Miles, Jack, 2008 1st round pick for Stephon Marbury (Who we buy out).

Something like that would be awesome. I'm just not that optimistic. I think KP's gonna have some hard decisions to make this off-season as far as who to keep on the team.

[BigOrangeBalls]

Blake/Sergio/Green
Roy/Jack/Rudy
Jones/Webster/Miles
LA/Outlaw/Lafrentz/McRoberts
Przybilla/Frye/Oden

Blake/Sergio/Green (Green gone)
Roy/Jack/Rudy .......(Jack gone)
Jones/Webster/Miles (Miles gone)
LA/Outlaw/Lafrentz/McRoberts (LaFrentz gone)
Przybilla/Frye/Oden

That leaves:

Blake/Sergio
Roy/Rudy
Webster/Jones
LMA/Outlaw/Frye
Oden/Przybilla...with room for a draft pick(s) and whatever they get back in a trade. They may even buyout a player which will still count against the cap but remove him from the 15 man roster.

Exactly! There are 4 roster spots available, this really isn't an issue.

[mharris3]

Blake/Sergio/Green (Green gone)
Roy/Jack/Rudy .......(Jack gone)
Jones/Webster/Miles (Miles gone)
LA/Outlaw/Lafrentz/McRoberts (LaFrentz gone)
Przybilla/Frye/Oden

Last I checked to get rid of a player with a guaranteed contract (Jack/Miles/LaFrentz) you had to take back a player with approximately equal contract. You're going to have a hard time coming up with many players who make more than LaFrentz/Miles.

Actually, here's the list that I compiled around draft day (may have changed some) of next year's expiring contracts, making more than LaFrentz. The Marbury comment is valid - if Allen's willing to open that checkbook again!

Kevin Garnett $23,000,000 (I think he was extended, with trade)
Jason Kidd $21,372,000
Stephon Marbury $20,840,625
Allen Iverson $20,840,625
Shawn Marion $17,810,000
Steve Francis $17,810,000
Baron Davis $17,810,000
Elton Brand $16,440,000
Mike Bibby $14,500,000
Lamar Odom $14,148,596
Rasheed Wallace $13,930,000
Wally Szczerbiak $13,775,000
Gilbert Arenas $12,804,000
Raef LaFrentz $12,722,500