The Race to Stay Out of the Play In

[codydaze]

We are 65 games into the season and the race for the last two guaranteed playoff spots is super tight. Every game from here on out is essential, we can not afford to give half effort against anyone and need to pick up as many wins as we can. Like last year, I will set a target win total that I believe will keep us in the top 6 and update this thread weekly with where we are at.

As of right now, I am setting the target win total at 50 wins to give us the best opportunity of avoiding the play in and making the playoffs outright. We would need to go 7-1 the rest of the way to hit this mark.

The current standings:
4. Clippers (50-28)
5. Mavericks (48-30)
6. Suns (46-32) [Own the tiebreaker]

--PLAY IN--
7. Pelicans (46-32) [Do not own the tiebreaker]
8. Kings (45-33)
9. Lakers (45-34) [Own the tiebreaker]
10. Warriors (43-35) [Own the tiebreaker]


Edit #1: 3/18 - We have gone 0-1 since the original post with a physical loss to NYK but remain in the 6 spot.
Edit #2: 3/25 - We have gone 3-1 since the last edit and have fallen to 0.5 GB from the 6 spot to Phoenix who went 3-0 last week.
Edit #3: 4/1 - Dallas has jumped us and is currently in the 5 seed after two wins against us this week. At this point, we should mostly be looking to secure the 7 spot to retain home court advantage for the play-in tournament with an outside shot of catching the Pels for the 6 spot if they collapse and we go on a run.
Edit #4: 4/8 - It's looking very likely that Clips-Mavs finish at the 4/5 seeds, but there is still somewhat of an outside chance we can jump to the 6. We need to win out these final 4 games to have a shot though. We need to finish strong, regardless, with the Lakers on our tail for the 8 spot. Falling to 9 would be absolute worst case scenario.

[codydaze]

Of the remaining schedule, I'll give these 9 games as must win:
Knicks (at least one of the 2 meetings)
Grizzlies [+]
Raptors [+]
Wizards [X]
Magic [+]
Mavericks [X]
Jazz [+]
Nets [+]
Blazers

To get to 50 wins, we'd need those 9 wins plus at least 3 of the other remaining games:
Knicks [X]
76ers [+]
Mavericks [X]
Clippers [+]
Celtics [X]
Thunder
Pelicans
Suns

Edit #1: 3/18 - Lost one of the two meetings against the Knicks. Games we lost in each category will have [+] and losses will be [X]
Edit #2: 3/25 - Being that we lost to the Wizards, if we want to hit 50 wins (looking not incredibly likely) we'd have to win the rest of those top category games as well as 3 games from the second category.
Edit #3: 4/1 - 50 wins at this point is about 99% unlikely but I think if we get to 47 wins we can secure the 7 seed if one of the wins includes Phoenix. I'm pretty confident 48 guarantees us the 7 but that's a tough ask after losing Monk with the strength of schedule remaining.
Edit #4: 4/8 - Definitely need to win out here but 100% need to beat New Orleans and Phoenix if we don't. All in all, even if we finish out 3-1, finishing with 48 wins again this year with the injury woes down the stretch wouldn't be too bad.

[madskillz8]

Pelicans are about to beat Clippers at home, which improves their record to 40 - 26.

Currently,

1 - Denver 47-20
2 - OKC 46-20
3 - T'Wolves 45-21
4 - Clippers 42-24
5 - Pelicans 40-26
6 - Kings 38-27
7 - Suns 39-28
8 - Mavs 38-29

with 15-17 games remaining for each team. Of course, the priority would be to avoid play-in, and the remaining schedule is easy for us (which is scary considering the KANGZ factor, lol). However, if we can finish at 6th, it seems like we are on a good side of the bracket as I genuinely think this would also be the standings after 82 games:

Kings vs T'Wolves in the first round, and even if KAT returns he most likely won't be 100%. I still remember the end results of having Peja back early when we really shouldn't... Then, the winner of OKC vs Suns. Both are better matchup for us than Denver, Clippers, or Pelicans. Then, Denver at WCF, the final boss of which we're 3-1 against in the regular season.

On the other hand of the bracket though, assuming we would finish the regular season firing all the cylinders -i.e., the 5th spot... We have to beat Clippers/Pelicans, and Denver just to reach WCF. Thus, 5th spot is the worst case scenario IMHO.

Go Kings!

[codydaze]

Pelicans are about to beat Clippers at home, which improves their record to 40 - 26.

Currently,

1 - Denver 47-20
2 - OKC 46-20
3 - T'Wolves 45-21
4 - Clippers 42-24
5 - Pelicans 40-26
6 - Kings 38-27
7 - Suns 39-28
8 - Mavs 38-29

with 15-17 games remaining for each team. Of course, the priority would be to avoid play-in, and the remaining schedule is easy for us (which is scary considering the KANGZ factor, lol). However, if we can finish at 6th, it seems like we are on a good side of the bracket as I genuinely think this would also be the standings after 82 games:

Kings vs T'Wolves in the first round, and even if KAT returns he most likely won't be 100%. I still remember the end results of having Peja back early when we really shouldn't... Then, the winner of OKC vs Suns. Both are better matchup for us than Denver, Clippers, or Pelicans. Then, Denver, the final boss of which we're 3-1 against in the regular season.

Go Kings!

This is pretty much how I expect things to shake out with the only wild card I see is one of Lakers/Warriors beating Dallas for the 8 seed.

[OxAndFox]

It just got a whole lot harder with the Lyles news. When you have him on the sidelines along with Sasha there really isn't much size on the bench except for Edwards, who I believe should be getting minutes now until one or both of them come back.
He has played decently when he gets an opportunity so let's give him 14-18mpg and see what he can do with this squad.

[codydaze]

It just got a whole lot harder with the Lyles news. When you have him on the sidelines along with Sasha there really isn't much size on the bench except for Edwards, who I believe should be getting minutes now until one or both of them come back.
He has played decently when he gets an opportunity so let's give him 14-18mpg and see what he can do with this squad.

This is why these guys should have been getting minutes more regularly throughout the year, in my opinion. We had insane injury luck last year but inevitably guys are going to have stretches where they miss some time. If we're not getting the guys who will be filling those minutes some reps during the year it makes it that much more difficult.

[Lost in LA]

Hard to watch the end of the Dallas/Denver game...Denver were up by 3 with about 20 seconds left them the defence fell asleep and Kyrie scored twice. Both teams seemed to play really slowly but were quite physical... how do we normally guard those 2 stars?

[OxAndFox]

It just got a whole lot harder with the Lyles news. When you have him on the sidelines along with Sasha there really isn't much size on the bench except for Edwards, who I believe should be getting minutes now until one or both of them come back.
He has played decently when he gets an opportunity so let's give him 14-18mpg and see what he can do with this squad.

This is why these guys should have been getting minutes more regularly throughout the year, in my opinion. We had insane injury luck last year but inevitably guys are going to have stretches where they miss some time. If we're not getting the guys who will be filling those minutes some reps during the year it makes it that much more difficult.

Agreed. I don't know why Colby and Edwards haven't played more. Not right now, but in December/January. It's how you unearth young players with promise. I mean, Brown started Okpala last season because of defense and he was lucky to be able to make a lay up. I wouldn't mind both Barnes and Huerter moving to the bench and teaming up with Monk. IMO the bench is a massive problem with movement without the ball and the offense stalls.
All those guys can still play pretty much the same minutes, but Ellis and Edwards can bring the defensive aggression early on and if they're playing well, keep them in, if not revert back to what we know.
I get the Kings are playing better defensively lately, and that has a lot to do with Ellis IMO & Davion, but with Ellis taking the #1 ball handler (I bet Brunson doesn't have a 40 piece with Ellis taking him from the start), Fox can turn his attention to the #3 outside threat. Keegan takes their #1 scoring threat and that leaves Edwards being the "PF/SF" on D. Sabonis plays decently against his man, he just doesn't cover extra players at all.
Now that won't work against NOP, but nothing has either. Maybe you could add Denver to that with Gordon as well.

Just spitballing with this, but we keep hearing "Kings love Edwards" so if they did he would be able to hit the floor for at least 10-12mpg, particularly in the absence of Lyles.
When you have 5 guys on the floor that want to score, there's always going to be 2 guys squeezed at all times for shots. This is why it's always two of Huerter/Barnes/Keegan missing out on their offense, sometimes its all 3 if Fox or Sabonis start the game scoring well.

[OxAndFox]

Hard to watch the end of the Dallas/Denver game...Denver were up by 3 with about 20 seconds left them the defence fell asleep and Kyrie scored twice. Both teams seemed to play really slowly but were quite physical... how do we normally guard those 2 stars?

Ellis on Kyrie. Keegan on Luka. you're not going to stop either one completely, they're great players, but that leaves Fox on Jones and Barnes on Washington.

[codydaze]

First updates have been made. Kings remain at 6. Three game stretch against Memphis, Toronto and Washington are games we need to handle business in if we have any hopes of holding on to this spot. I truly think if we lose one of these next three games then we will ultimately be in the play-in.

[Lost in LA]

Watch out for the Rockets as they are now closing quickly on both Golden State and the Lakers, having won 6 straight. It would be pretty funny if they got into the play in tournament.

[madskillz8]

Dallas has a very easy remaining schedule so we should better beat them twice. But let's handle Wizards first.

Currently, we're 40-28 with 14 more games. Dallas is 40-29.

Our remaining games (my predictions):
@WAS W(41-28)
@ORL L(41-29)
PHI W(42-29)
DAL W(43-29)
DAL L(43-30)
UTA W(44-30)
LAC L(44-31)
@NYK L(44-32)
@BOS L(44-33)
@BRO W(45-33)
@OKC L(45-34)
NOP W(46-34)
PHO W(47-34)
POR W(48-34)

If we beat Dallas twice, then, in the remaining 12 games, I think 6-6 would be enough to secure the 6th spot.
If 1-1 against Dallas, then it would be 8-4 or 7-5.
If 0-2, then I am not sure even 9-3 would be enough, considering Dallas's remaining schedule.

My prediction is 8-6 with 1-1 against Dallas, thus every remaining game is very critical to avoid play-in.

[Lost in LA]

I looked at the Mavs' Schedule, and they should reach at least 47-33 based on their schedule, leaving out the 2 games with us. I believe we have to sweep the home and home games to stay above them. We are 2-0 thus far, so if we go 1-1, we hold the tie breaker.

[OxAndFox]

Phoenix is still the main competition for 6th IMO. They have by far the toughest schedule, but I can see them going on a run.
Still think the Kings have a run in them, despite the Wizards loss, but I'm hoping it comes in the PI/POs.

[Lost in LA]

I went to the Clippers game against the 76ers today, and the score flattered the Clippers. We might be better off concentrating on Dallas.

[BoogieTime]

Phoenix is still the main competition for 6th IMO. They have by far the toughest schedule, but I can see them going on a run.
Still think the Kings have a run in them, despite the Wizards loss, but I'm hoping it comes in the PI/POs.

do you know something we don't regarding the Mavs injury status?

[codydaze]

Second update has been made. Despite going 3-1 over the last week, we fall 0.5 GB from Phoenix into the 7 spot. The three remaining games against Dallas and Phoenix are going to be super critical. Philly tonight and then Dallas on the second night of a b2b tomorrow is going to be tough but we really need to grab both of these wins. Would be huge.

Important Games this week:

Sac vs Philly
Sac vs Dallas**
Sac vs Dallas**
Sac vs Utah

Dallas @ Utah
Dallas @ Houston

Phoenix @ San Antonio
Phoenix @ Denver
Phoenix @ OKC

If we can just handle business and go 3-1 over this stretch we'd need Phoenix to lose one of their next three and we'd be back in the 6 spot. If we go 4-0 we'll take it outright.

[Lost in LA]

That was the hardest match up of the 4 game stretch. Need a big effort tonight.

Clippers seem to be in a free fall also, and Houston are primed to move into the tenth seed. The Boston loss was a surprise.

[BoogieTime]

Getting scary in this west...

Suns beating the Nuggets, and the Mavs just looked like the team that will finish 6th

With the way the Lakers/Warriors are looking, I'm not sure we are making the playoffs

[TyFrekey]

Suns taking down the Nuggets was definitely tough for our prospects. But the Suns still have a brutal schedule going forward. I did think the Mavs would end at 6 even if we took both games simply due to SOS, hopefully when it is all said and done we end up in the playoffs. I'm going to prepare myself for missing the playoffs and enjoy rooting for this team to prove me wrong.

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