The Keegan Murray thread

[sackings916]

While I appreciate the fact that Keegan's game is no longer in the state it was in when I made this thread, you would still have to say, macrocosmically, that his year has been disappointing.

I say that looking at it through the lens we saw it in this summer and preseason, when many of us thought we had a bonafide franchise piece going forward. Maybe its a lesson in the importance of summer league though, or maybe Keegan in his timid manner is going to take awhile to acclimate to the league.

He has shot well, but are we really celebrating him putting up 12/3 for the month? These just aren't the numbers we were hoping for a couple months ago.

The biggest question now surrounding him is do you trade him for win now help, instead of will he win ROY. I'm still confident he will round out to a quality role player, and am happy he won the award, but hopefully we see a continued growth from here on out.

Looking back, too many folks unwisely assumed because Keegan was polished that he would be favored to win ROY when it was clear he doesn't possess the top end talent of a Paolo or others. Many other factors come into play as well. Credit to Paolo for making an immediate impact in the league. But make no mistake Keegan is out there doing good things on a winning team. Let's take a dive into his numbers vs the other ROY candidates:

Off rating
Paolo-108
Keegan-115
Ivey-107
Mathurin-111

Def rating
Paolo-114
Keegan-111.9
Ivey-119.6
Mathurin-109.4

Keegan's performance to date is a net positive rookie. He ranks tied for 1st (Mathurin) in Net Rating (2.3) out of all rookies playing 20mpg or more. Paolo (-6) and Ivey(-12.4), are both net negative players.

Now let's focus on Keegan's strength; shooting. Even with Keegan's rough shooting stretch he still leads all rookies in made 3 pt FG's. An overall snapshot shows Keegan should pull away in this category now that his shooting slump is over.

Ts%
Paolo- 54
Keegan- 55.5
Ivey- 51.4
Mathurin- 56

Efg%
Paolo- 47.3
Keegan- 53.7
Ivey- 46.1
Mathurin- 48.8

3pt%
Paolo- 30.8
Keegan- 38.4
Ivey- 31.5
Mathurin- 34.4

FGA
Paolo- 15.8
Keegan- 9.6
Ivey- 12.5
Mathurin- 12.9

I believe what really holds Keegan back in the race for ROY is his role on the Kings. Keegan isn't utilized the same way other ROY candidates are used.

Touches per game
Paolo- 67.1
Keegan- 32.9
Ivey- 52.2
Mathurin- 42.6

Usage%
Paolo- 27.5
Keegan- 16.4
Ivey- 24.1
Mathurin- 24.6

Once Keegan has the ball he is shooting it or looking to move it quickly to keep the offensive flow going. He's processing quickly.

Average seconds per touch
Paolo- 4.0
Keegan- 1.7
Ivey- 4.50
Mathurin- 2.45

For the most part the Kings utilize Keegan as a floor spacer on offense, again leading to less opportunity.

Dribbles per touch
Paolo- 3.21
Keegan- 0.92
Ivey- 4.07
Mathurin- 1.65

Elbow touches per game
Paolo- 1.0
Keegan- 0.4
Ivey- 0.7
Mathurin- 1.2

Post ups per game
Paolo- 2.3
Keegan- 0.2
Ivey- 0.0
Mathurin- 0.1


I agree 12/3 aren't eye popping numbers. If you wish to call Keegan disappointing thus far I won't argue but I will say not all the blame deserves to go Keegan's way. Mike Brown has carved out a smaller role for him and Keegan plays within that role.

Areas I would like to see Keegan improve: rebounding, playmaking, and developing his body. Need to see him get stronger.

I wouldn't seek to trade Keegan unless it's for a larger deal to acquire a star.

Thank you for these numbers. Where do you pull these type of stats from?

[City of Trees]

Thank you for these numbers. Where do you pull these type of stats from?

https://www.nba.com/stats/leaders

[OxAndFox]

Stop by to say congrats to you guys as Keegan just won rookie of the month for his December plays. It must be awesome watching him progress. Anyway, good luck to you guys the rest of the way, of course except against us.

Oh btw, there is a lot to be said about the rookie wall. I think sometimes we forget these kids are learning a whole new system, seeing different defensive looks that they are not used to, and getting used to the daily grind of the NBA. Have grace and mercy for these players. They are rookies, they are still learning.

Thank you. Keegan is going great. Love his improvement on D and he is shooting I think over 50% from 3 this month. Although don't want to say they coz KEV!!
Don't need to worry about a guy (Keegan) that is going to play 12-15 years for your franchise and shoot at a minimum of 40%. He WILL NOT be a super star. He will though be one a WINNING player. You actually know why, but others need to know. He is a kid that learns, is coachable, and is a workaholic. That means he is going to make Kings fans smile for a long time. The strides he has made already is insane.

[LightTheBeam]

I've actually been a whole lot more impressed with keegan the last few weeks. Plays like that and 1 finish, or those 2 defensive rebounds he got up for, diving to the ground with Lauri on the loose ball. Those feel like plays he wouldn't have made a month ago.

That said, would you guys move keegan + Holmes for Lauri? What kind of return do we need for a keegan deal to make sense?

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[codydaze]

I've actually been a whole lot more impressed with keegan the last few weeks. Plays like that and 1 finish, or those 2 defensive rebounds he got up for, diving to the ground with Lauri on the loose ball. Those feel like plays he wouldn't have made a month ago.

That said, would you guys move keegan + Holmes for Lauri? What kind of return do we need for a keegan deal to make sense?

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Lauri has been great this year but I think it's largely the role that he's in. If we were to trade for him, he'd be mostly in that same catch and shoot role he played in Chicago whereas in Utah he's been used as a creator with the ball in his hands. If you look at his two highest scoring years, per possession, it's the years where he's been able to put up 15+ FGA per game. Keegan is at 9 FGA, so to get that level of production we'd need to find 6 more FGA somewhere.

[LightTheBeam]

I've actually been a whole lot more impressed with keegan the last few weeks. Plays like that and 1 finish, or those 2 defensive rebounds he got up for, diving to the ground with Lauri on the loose ball. Those feel like plays he wouldn't have made a month ago.

That said, would you guys move keegan + Holmes for Lauri? What kind of return do we need for a keegan deal to make sense?

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Lauri has been great this year but I think it's largely the role that he's in. If we were to trade for him, he'd be mostly in that same catch and shoot role he played in Chicago whereas in Utah he's been used as a creator with the ball in his hands. If you look at his two highest scoring years, per possession, it's the years where he's been able to put up 15+ FGA per game. Keegan is at 9 FGA, so to get that level of production we'd need to find 6 more FGA somewhere.

Ya id prefer more of a defensive threat. That said I think those fga can be found. Right now we rely on one of barnes/monk to score for us to win consistently. I think Lauri provides that.

I'd rotate Lauri/Fox out at the 6:30 mark for Mitchell/Lyles. Then let Lauri/Fox run with the bench. Instead of relying on Lyles/Monk to provide most of the offense now Monk/Lauri can while Mr clutch Fox saves himself for the 4th quarter lol.

Maybe holding onto murray would be better long term, but in Monte I trust.

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[BoogieTime]

I think Lauri has played himself out of the conversation. He's a player now.

First, if there was a star who had a agreeable contract or intimated he would re-sign with the Kings that would be an option.

One to one your looking nearer at the Kuzma/Collins of the world. Kuzma is expiring, and Collins has been bad this year. Both would be paid a lot more than Keegan on a rookie deal. Doesn't look feasible. Kuzma would have to intimate he would stay if they Kings traded for him, and then is he providing more getting paid then Keegan on a rookie scale to justify it? Collins, has been bad for the year, but has come alive more recently. Monte would have to be damn secure there are reasons for his piss poor play, and still believe he provides more getting paid than Keegan on rookie to justify. Maybe if the Hawks gave pick back as well would make it closer?

The options have question marks

[OxAndFox]

I think Lauri has played himself out of the conversation. He's a player now.

First, if there was a star who had a agreeable contract or intimated he would re-sign with the Kings that would be an option.

One to one your looking nearer at the Kuzma/Collins of the world. Kuzma is expiring, and Collins has been bad this year. Both would be paid a lot more than Keegan on a rookie deal. Doesn't look feasible. Kuzma would have to intimate he would stay if they Kings traded for him, and then is he providing more getting paid then Keegan on a rookie scale to justify it? Collins, has been bad for the year, but has come alive more recently. Monte would have to be damn secure there are reasons for his piss poor play, and still believe he provides more getting paid than Keegan on rookie to justify. Maybe if the Hawks gave pick back as well would make it closer?

The options have question marks

There is no way Keegan is getting dealt for someone like Kuzma. Collins is a bad contract type guy with no trade value. How does a #4 pick that has shown improvement beyond his years, albeit a 22yo, for a potential PO team have so low of trade value?
Keegan Murray is going to be a King for a Long, Long time. He isn't getting traded unless it's an absolute steal for a superstar #1 option. A big reason being he is locked in for 10 years at a low rate. Look at how much Barnes is going to command. The MAIN reason is below.
Top rookie scorers (PPG) this season:
#1 Banchero (1 pick)
#2 Mathurin (6 pick)
#3 Ivey (5 Pick)
#4 Smith Jr (3 Pick)
#5 Murray (4 Pick)
#6 Williams (12 pick)
#7 AJ Griffin (16 pick)

Not 1 of these guys plays for a team that is in the POs currently. Let's count Chet in there as well. Why not. Not going to take away from what is the most outstanding aspect of this.
Keegan is on top of 3pt shooting by a LONG way and his D is much better than most of the guys above, and getting better (no I'm not saying he is lock down, or he doesn't have missed assignments). PLUS I don't think this has been talked about, but Keegan is actually on track to break the AT record for 3pt makes in a rookie season...like EVER.
That's not easy, particularly for a rookie coming onto a squad with PO aspirations and a coach that has shown he WILL bench him if he doesn't bring it.
Look at the leader, Donavon Mitchell, their record went DOWN slightly in his rookie season.
Next up, let's look at Damien Lillard with the Blazers' record of 33-49 from 28 wins the season prior.
#3 on this list is the almighty Bey. Not even going there. The Pistons' record stunk...and still does.

I'm not saying he is going to be Mitchell/Lillard. I will say right now he will be a MUCH better defender than any of those guys and if he shoots 40%+ from 3 and show a consistent improvement like he has this year, he is going to be an AS. Maybe a Klay AS instead of a Dame/Mitchell AS, but an AS nonetheless.

[codydaze]

Yeah, I'm not even considering trading Keegan unless it's for a bonafide star. After a shaky stretch at the beginning of the year he has looked VERY good, you can see that he will be an elite role player. His projection was never going to be an 18+ point scorer, he's going to be a knock down outside shooter who does all of the little things and makes winning plays. When you watch him you see how he consistently makes the correct extra pass and plays such a smart game. He still does need to hit the weights and get a little stronger but he's going to be really good.

[City of Trees]

My argument for Keegan does contribute on defense:

(Please keep in mind most of the following stats are in total, NOT per game. In my eyes it makes these rankings even more impressive since Keegan is only playing 28mpg)

-Leads the Kings in total blocks (22) and is tied 4th with Sabonis in total steals (29).

-Best def rating (112) in our starting line up

-Tied with Sabonis for a team best 2.9 Defensive WS

-Leads the starting unit in DFG% (47.4). Actually, the only rotation guy posting a better DFG% is Davion (45.5)

-3rd on the team in shot contests (202).

-3rd in loose balls recovered (20)

-3rd in charges drawn (4)

-3rd in +/- (+83)

-4th in Def RB (101)

-How the Kings PF rotation ranks in DFG% at the rim:
Keegan- 63.4%
Barnes- 70.6%
Lyles- 71.7%

None are great but Keegan is the lesser evil.

For additional context here is the Center rotation DFG% at the rim:
Sabonis- 61.7%
Metu- 60.9%
Holmes- 57.9%

-3rd in 3pt DFG% (min 25 attempts) at 33.9% while ranking 4th on the team in 3pt DFGA (115).

-Tied for 1st (Barnes) in the starting unit for 2pt DFG% at 54.1% while ranking 5th on the team in DFGA (233). Team wise, Keegan is tied for 4th in 2pt DFG% (min 25 attempts). Only KZ, Lyles, and Davion are better.

[OGSactownballer]

I've actually been a whole lot more impressed with keegan the last few weeks. Plays like that and 1 finish, or those 2 defensive rebounds he got up for, diving to the ground with Lauri on the loose ball. Those feel like plays he wouldn't have made a month ago.

That said, would you guys move keegan + Holmes for Lauri? What kind of return do we need for a keegan deal to make sense?

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Lauri has been great this year but I think it's largely the role that he's in. If we were to trade for him, he'd be mostly in that same catch and shoot role he played in Chicago whereas in Utah he's been used as a creator with the ball in his hands. If you look at his two highest scoring years, per possession, it's the years where he's been able to put up 15+ FGA per game. Keegan is at 9 FGA, so to get that level of production we'd need to find 6 more FGA somewhere.

I’ll add to that the fact that I am sitting here waiting for Lauri’s next injury.

Guys with his build that are injury prone so not suddenly get fine. They may have one good solid season where they play the majority of games but that is not the norm it’s the exception.

Also he is really a lousy rebounder and defender.

I wouldn’t risk it.

[City of Trees]

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[BoogieTime]

I think replacing Keegan with a vastly superior scorer/rebounder/playmaker in Kuzma in the immediate term potentially bolsters the Kings a lot, though Kuzma is a worse shooter and the Kings already are second in scoring (and the immediate term is when Sabonis will be re-signing though I know he likes it here). And again there would have to be an understanding before the trade that Kuzma would re-sign here

But whether it makes sense in the long term or value is another issue. He's expiring for one (though it would probably give the Kings a significant step towards keeping him long term than just trying their luck in FA). Might cost less than Keegan though, understandably. I know the Kings have been after him for a while, specifically Monte (before this year's breakout).

[City of Trees]

I'm not opposed to adding Kuzma to the rotation but I'm not willing to give up Murray to get him.

[City of Trees]

One thing to remember is Kuzma has committed more turnovers this season than Keegan, Barnes, and Lyles combined!

[BoogieTime]

I guess the other question is, since his rebounding and interior physicality has left a ton to be desired, is do you have any reservations about him becoming a full time SF athletically if it goes that route?

[OxAndFox]

I guess the other question is, since his rebounding and interior physicality has left a ton to be desired, is do you have any reservations about him becoming a full time SF athletically if it goes that route?

I think he will be a SF/PF for the beginning of his career instead of I guess a PF/SF.

The Kings need length on the wing so I hope the training staff is going to be trying to trim him down a bit over the off season. They need to refrain from trying to bulk him up and add strength which certainly would help his interior softness, but IMO it's not in Keegan's best interest as a player to do this. His frame will naturally add weight/strength over the long term. Being a pro and lifting each session will do that. He doesn't have a chiseled athletic body type so he needs to keep working on cutting body far where possible. He is kind of the reverse of most guys coming in, most of the time it's get some fat and muscle on these guys, Keegan it's the opposite.
Then he will be able to use his length to curtail any lack of speed he might have over the elite scorers.
Now I'm certainly no expert on this and I could certainly be wrong about the approach.

Looking at the below I would like to see him drop at least 10 pounds. Most of these guys are older so they started out a lot lighter.
Keegan 6-8 215
Barnes 6-8 225
George 6-8 220
Kawhii 6-7 225
Tatum 6-8 210
Hunter 6-8 225
Collins 6-9 235
OG 6-7 232
Scottie Barnes 6-9 227
Cam Johnson 6-8 210
Ingram 6-8 190
Wiggins 6-7 197
Hayward 6-7 225
Bey 6-7 215

[City of Trees]

In the month of January, Keegan Murray is averaging 14.4pts/ 5.8reb/ 1.2ast while shooting 52/51/93, ts% 71. Kings have gone 8-4 and are 3rd in the West.

You can tell a light has gone off for Keegan, who has now posted two double double's in the last 5 games. He's turning it up. Missed his 3rd DD by one rebound last night.

Also, I'd like to suggest Boogie change the name of this thread. What do you say Boogie?

[blind prophet]

This thread is aging like milk & eggs left in the hot sun.

[OxAndFox]

In the month of January, Keegan Murray is averaging 14.4pts/ 5.8reb/ 1.2ast while shooting 52/51/93, ts% 71. Kings have gone 8-4 and are 3rd in the West.

You can tell a light has gone off for Keegan, who has now posted two double double's in the last 5 games. He's turning it up. Missed his 3rd DD by one rebound last night.

Also, I'd like to suggest Boogie change the name of this thread. What do you say Boogie?

To NBA should be concerned about Keegan Murray thread.
Realistically the guy is going to have another rough patch at some stage. It's just important to remember, Keegan MURRAY is a basketball nut, a true hard worker, extremely skilled, and a fantastic player so he won't be in it long.

But right now he is balling and his defense is getting better all the time.