Colbinii wrote:JMAC3 wrote:
Okay so you hate the Cam Johnson comp, who had 29 pts on 7/11 from 3 last night.
Who do you expect him to be as good as in 2-3 years? Who is his long-term similar impact guy in the NBA?
Give me some names of guys he will be better than.
Someone who Jabari Smith Jr could be as good as?
To start, I don't put expectations on players. I assess prospects the same way I assess young NBA players, by asking what they do well, what they do poorly, where they can realistically improve and how they can further impact a game in the NBA.
I'll give you an example: I thought Jaden McDaniels had some ridiculously high-end outcomes after his 2nd season [Think Kawhi-Leonard lite]. I never expected Jaden to get to that level, but I could see ways where he blossomed like a flower and reached every 99% outcome. Since then, I don't think those high-end outcomes are possible given his growth/improvement curve. As for my expectations for him as a player? I don't know, I would like to think a Mikal Bridges-type is in the wheel house, but I don't expect him to get to that level but I also wouldn't be surprised if in 2024-2025 Jaden McDaniels was given a larger offensive role and all of the metrics lined up with Mikal Bridges from 2022 [That was his real breakout year, DPOY2, ect].
So, circling back to Jabari Smith Jr, what I am doing in pointing out his Rebounding is pointing to a data point. That data point says "Wow, this player is
really freaking good at this important basketball trait, and the trait specifically goes against what I saw as his skill-set when he entered the NBA". That's good, right? Like, a player who projects to do a lot of + impact things on a court does something else impactful that you didn't even think he would. That makes me change how I feel about a player moving forward, because they are doing positive things on a court I didn't previously project or assess.
This isn't me trying to defend Jabari Smith Jr or compare him to Paolo Banchero. It is me simply looking at a prospect and seeing him do more than I thought he would, which in turn allows me to
change my assessment of him as a player. I have no qualms or issues changing my assessment on a player as they spend time in the NBA as they add more skills or show a lack of another skill holding them back. I don't need to latch onto a prospect and play the game of "Look at me, I am so smart!" or tell other people "I told you Player X would suck, IDIOT!".
To answer your question in multiple answers.
Higher-end outcome for pure impact and similar role as Jabari Smith Jr: Modern-Day Shawn MarionA good offensive player who is more of a play finisher than play initiator. Exceptional defender who can guard multiple positions, fill in at the 5-spot for stretches, defend the best wings in the NBA and help of the offensive/defensive glass.
Marion had a 7-year Prime as an Ironman, missing just 12 games in those 7 years, posting 4.3 BPM, .180 WS/48 and had multiple uber-efficient scoring seasons [Two seasons > +100 TS+] and was a Top 15-ish player for a couple years [Top 15 in MVP twice].
Medium-end outcome for pure impact and similar role as Jabari Smith Jr: Rashard LewisVersatile big who pops offensively and is underrated defensively. Switchable, excellent player in high-level defensive schemes and can play small-ball 5. Good offensive player who can get hot and win a playoff game with his shot. Utilizes his spacing and shooting to attack off the closeout, High-level starter.
Low-end outcome for pure impact and similar role as Jabari Smith Jr: Clifford RobinsonStretch Big who flirts with making All-Defensive teams and/or makes a couple. Very good starter, squeaks in as an All-star in a potential weaker season, weaker DPOY candidate. Offensively, he is a key cog in the machine but not a huge needle mover but can play multiple positions and is extremely portable in terms of fit [5-out, can be the big man down low against smaller line-ups, ect].