Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft

[bigboi]

Dillingham might be Trae Young without the flopping.

I don't know if Trae Young is a net positive player at this point in the NBA.

I'm pretty certain 80-90% of Trae Young is not an NBA player.

If Dillingham were just less tiny, I would feel way better about him, but he's just so small.

He carried his team to the ECF over a stacked 6ers team at that, this is one of the silliest takes that I’ve ever seen

[CptCrunch]

He's not even old. He's only 19..

He's kind of small, but he's a pretty well built 6'3" guy..not *that* bad of size for a combo-guard.

And he's sneaky athletic. Similar athleticism to guys like Derrick White, Austin Reaves and Divencenzo..

he's 6'2" and he is nowhere near the athlete White and Divencenzo are. Maybe Reaves but Reaves has 3 inches on him. A small Reaves is basically about what I've been saying he is all along and Reaves wan't even a first round pick

First off, most sites list him as 6'3". Either way, not a ton of difference between 6'2" and 6'3". That 1" isn't gonna make or break his career.

I also disagree that he's nowhere near the athlete white or Divencenzo are.

Also, Sheppard and Reaves are really not that similar as prospects. If you want to compare their athleticism, ok, that's one thing. But let's not compare them overall as prospects and say stuff like "Oh, Reaves wasn't even a 1st round pick). Makes no sense to say something like that, since they are VERY different as prospects.

Reaves - was 23 on draft night, was not ranked coming out of HS. Was not very good on D in college and was not a very good outside shooter in college either. But he was very crafty with the ball in his hands, had a deep bag, much better handle/driving/self creation/ than other guys who were 6'5" and taller.

Sheppard - only a 19 yr old freshman, Mcdonalds all-american, 4 star recruit, top 30 ranked player coming out of HS. Way better shooter than Reaves, much better defender too. But not nearly as good as Reaves in terms of handle/driving/self creation or craftiness with the ball, not as deep of a bag...but tbf, he could potentially get there eventually since he's like 4 yrs younger

As you can see, they were *very* different prospects. The main thing they did have in common however, is that both of them really understand the game. Extremely cerebral, high IQ players who have really good feel for the game, can out-think their opponents, know how to play, always seem to make the right basketball play that contributes to winning, nothing raw about them (the low IQ, raw players are often the ones who end up as busts).

Lastly, while Reaves wasn't a 1st round pick, he'd go top 10 in a re-draft so he probably (in hindsight) should have gone much higher. The scouts probably missed badly with him..probably because scouts made the mistake of underrating a white guy who was under 6'6" and didn't have crazy athleticism....and they (for some reason) thought guys like JT THor, Kai JOnes, Jonathan Kuminga, Tre Mann, BJ Boston, Greg Brown, Juhann Begarin and Ziaire Williams would be better just because those guys could jump higher but didn't have the basketball IQ or developed skill set that Reaves had.

Reed also has 15.3 BPM. His staff stuffing is so extreme on a Kentucky team (known to depress guard stats) is insanity for a freshman.

He is currently #4 in the nation in BPM. The top 10 right now is led by Zach Edey, junior in KJ Simpson, and a multitude of senior and super graduate seniors.

In fact if Reed sustains this level of production, he would be 3rd in freshman BPM ever behind Zion and Anthony Davis. The outlier stats green flags are literally jumping out of the screen right now.

[Colbinii]

Dillingham might be Trae Young without the flopping.

I don't know if Trae Young is a net positive player at this point in the NBA.

I'm pretty certain 80-90% of Trae Young is not an NBA player.

If Dillingham were just less tiny, I would feel way better about him, but he's just so small.

He carried his team to the ECF over a stacked 6ers team at that, this is one of the silliest takes that I’ve ever seen

Stacked?

The teams most played players were Embiid, Harris, Green, Curry and Simmons with Milton/Howard/Thybulle off the bench. They weren't stacked.

[bigboi]

Dillingham might be Trae Young without the flopping.

I don't know if Trae Young is a net positive player at this point in the NBA.

I'm pretty certain 80-90% of Trae Young is not an NBA player.

If Dillingham were just less tiny, I would feel way better about him, but he's just so small.

He carried his team to the ECF over a stacked 6ers team at that, this is one of the silliest takes that I’ve ever seen

Stacked?

The teams most played players were Embiid, Harris, Green, Curry and Simmons with Milton/Howard/Thybulle off the bench. They weren't stacked.

Embiid/Harris/Simmons was definitely a stacked team. Stop playing games. No one thought ATL had a chance. We can prob look back at betting odds, predictions and all that.

[Colbinii]

He carried his team to the ECF over a stacked 6ers team at that, this is one of the silliest takes that I’ve ever seen

Stacked?

The teams most played players were Embiid, Harris, Green, Curry and Simmons with Milton/Howard/Thybulle off the bench. They weren't stacked.

Embiid/Harris/Simmons was definitely a stacked team. Stop playing games. No one thought ATL had a chance. We can prob look back at betting odds, predictions and all that.

Oh of course nobody thought Atlanta had a chance. Nobody thought Simmons would mentally shrink to the size he did either.

Ben Simmons FGA/G in RS: 10.1
Ben Simmons FT Shooting in RS: 64%

Ben Simmons FGA/G in R1: 10.0
Ben Simmons FT Shooting in R1: 1/10 [10%]

Ben Simmons FGA/G in R1: 6.2
Ben Simmons FT Shooting in R2: 15/45 [33%]

Ben Simmons completely shrunk and became a shell of himself in the post-season, especially against a small Atlanta team. You remember him passing up the Dunk because he was afraid of being fouled, right?

Clearly the 5.2 SRS Philadelphia team in the Regular Season wasn't the same team against the Hawks. Philadelphia's 2nd best player, Ben Simmons, wasn't the same, meaning the team wasn't the same.

[Colbinii]

Reed Sheppard has just a 17% Usage Rate and 24.5% AST Rate.

Notable Freshman (USG% / AST%)

Kyrie Irving: 26.4% / 29.8%
Trae Young: 37.1% / 48.6%
D'Angelo Russell: 30.2% / 30.1%
Lonzo Ball: 18.4% / 31.4%
Tyrese Haliburton: 20.1% / 35.3%
Brandon Podziemski (Sophomore): 25.6% / 20.5%
Monte Morris (Sophomore): 16.9% / 27.4%
Tyler Ulis (Sophomore): 23.3% / 34.3%
Donovan Mitchell (Sophomore): 24.6% / 16.0%

I think his numbers aren't comparable at all to Trae Young or Tyler Ulis. Both of them crushed the USG% and AST% [Ulis was a Sophomore]. The idea that he can up his usage to Trae Young level is a huge reach. Trae Young already had massive signals in college that he could be this Volume+Usage+Playmaking monster, and Reed doesn't have any of those signals.

In fact, I think players like Pedziemski is better comp, and if you have seen him recently, he looks really good as a prospect but doesn't have the higher-end outcomes.

Do people see some of those higher-end outcomes for Sheppard?

[babyjax13]

Reed Sheppard has just a 17% Usage Rate and 24.5% AST Rate.

Notable Freshman (USG% / AST%)

Kyrie Irving: 26.4% / 29.8%
Trae Young: 37.1% / 48.6%
D'Angelo Russell: 30.2% / 30.1%
Lonzo Ball: 18.4% / 31.4%
Tyrese Haliburton: 20.1% / 35.3%
Brandon Podziemski (Sophomore): 25.6% / 20.5%
Monte Morris (Sophomore): 16.9% / 27.4%
Tyler Ulis (Sophomore): 23.3% / 34.3%
Donovan Mitchell (Sophomore): 24.6% / 16.0%

I think his numbers aren't comparable at all to Trae Young or Tyler Ulis. Both of them crushed the USG% and AST% [Ulis was a Sophomore]. The idea that he can up his usage to Trae Young level is a huge reach. Trae Young already had massive signals in college that he could be this Volume+Usage+Playmaking monster, and Reed doesn't have any of those signals.

In fact, I think players like Pedziemski is better comp, and if you have seen him recently, he looks really good as a prospect but doesn't have the higher-end outcomes.

Do people see some of those higher-end outcomes for Sheppard?

I do think his usage would be higher on a different team so I'm not sure how indicative that is of what he will be at the NBA level. From what I've seen he has pretty nice vision and can attack a defense that is scrambling and find the open guy. I'm not seeing a ton of him getting past the first defender if the defense is still set, though. I like him, great defensive anticipation, great shooting form, very good court vision, but I struggle to see more upside than a very good roleplayer unless there is more ability to create space on ball and beat his man. Still a lot of season to be played and I've only watched him three times, but that's my feeling so far.

[HadAnEffectHere]

There's only star or not much for Dillingham. I have no faith in 175 pound players being playoff contributors without elite scoring or passing.

[Hal14]

There's only star or not much for Dillingham. I have no faith in 175 pound players being playoff contributors without elite scoring or passing.

You don't think 44% from 3 on high volume as a high major freshman who hasn't turned 19 yet is elite shooting?

And a 31% assist % (makes lots of high level passing reads too) for a high major freshman could also be seen as elite.

Lastly, by the time he is playing for a playoff team (likely at least 2-3 yrs from now) he likely will have packed on more weight - most players bulk up quite a bit between age 18-23..

Rob has already bulked up a bit in the short time he's been at Kentucky.

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[The-Power]

Reaves wan't even a first round pick

... but he would be in a re-draft. He would go in the lottery.

[The-Power]

Do people see some of those higher-end outcomes for Sheppard?

I wrote it before but I'll write it again.

Sheppard (Freshman) vs. Haliburton (Sophomore) per 100.

PTS: 26 | 24
REB: 9 | 9
AST: 9 | 10
STL: 6 | 4
BLK: 2 | 1
TOV: 3 | 4
2P%: 60 | 59
3P%: 58 | 42
FT%: 90 | 82
USG%: 18 | 20
3PAr: .55 | .51
FTr: .23 | .18

I expect Sheppard's efficiency and stock numbers to come down to earth a bit because those do not seem sustainable. And in that case, the production numbers and scoring profile may look even more similar. They are not the same as prospects, of course, but they share similar strengths and limitations, and Haliburton's path would be the absolute high-end outcome for someone like Sheppard.

[Colbinii]

Do people see some of those higher-end outcomes for Sheppard?

I wrote it before but I'll write it again.

Sheppard (Freshman) vs. Haliburton (Sophomore) per 100.

PTS: 26 | 24
REB: 9 | 9
AST: 9 | 10
STL: 6 | 4
BLK: 2 | 1
TOV: 3 | 4
2P%: 60 | 59
3P%: 58 | 42
FT%: 90 | 82
USG%: 18 | 20
3PAr: .55 | .51
FTr: .23 | .18

I expect Sheppard's efficiency and stock numbers to come down to earth a bit because those do not seem sustainable. And in that case, the production numbers and scoring profile may look even more similar. They are not the same as prospects, of course, but they share similar strengths and limitations, and Haliburton's path would be the absolute high-end outcome for someone like Sheppard.

Yeah, if that's the high-end outcome, I don't see how he doesn't go #1 in this draft.

And it very well be his high-end outcome. His statistical profile is extremely unique for College Basketball. Kyle Anderson and Lonzo Ball are the two other players who are striking close to the two-way impact of his profile.

[FarBeyondDriven]

hard to get too excited about a 6'1" scoring guard no matter how dynamic he looks playing weak teams while on a stacked team. I think this is an example of where people falter when evaluating prospects. They spend too much time worrying about college/Ignite/NBL production instead of whether their talent and physical gifts will translate to the NBA. Both of these guys will play in the league, likely off the bench, maybe a spot start or extended period due to injury, and they'll do well for themselves. Neither look to be future NBA starters for a variety of reasons. At least not on a good team and that's all that matters. Still worth drafting in the first

[Hal14]

hard to get too excited about a 6'1" scoring guard no matter how dynamic he looks playing weak teams while on a stacked team. I think this is an example of where people falter when evaluating prospects. They spend too much time worrying about college/Ignite/NBL production instead of whether their talent and physical gifts will translate to the NBA. Both of these guys will play in the league, likely off the bench, maybe a spot start or extended period due to injury, and they'll do well for themselves. Neither look to be future NBA starters for a variety of reasons. At least not on a good team and that's all that matters. Still worth drafting in the first

Ignoring production, basketball IQ, ability to read the game, make decisions, have good processing speed, maturity, work ethic and relying too much on physical gifts/athleticism is why we've seen so many terrible picks in recent years (Kevin Knox, James Bouknight, Kai Jones, JT Thor, BJ Boston, Ziaire Williams, Jonathan Kuminga, GG Jackson, Isaiah Todd, Noah Vonleh, Greg Brown, Marvin Bagley, Cam Reddish, Stanley Johnson, Josh Jackson, James Wiseman, Jalen Smith, Juhann Begarin, Darius Bazley, Josh Christopher, Jalen Green, Bol Bol, Keon Johnson, Blake Wesley, Josh Primo, Bryce Mcgowens, Ryan Rollins, Patrick Baldwin Jr, Peyton Watson, etc.) while guys like Jokic, Austin Reaves, Jaime Jaquez, Jalen Williams, Quentin Grimes, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, De'anthony Melton, Gary Trent Jr, Gabe Vincent, Walker Kessler, Andrew Nembhard, Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Bruce Brown, Kenrich Williams, Corey Kispert, Desmond Bane, Brandin Podziemski and Alex Caruso got drafted way later than they should've.

We need to learn our lessons from previous drafts. The guys who are 6'8" freak athletes but are raw and don't know how to actually play winning basketball, or team basketball, don't have the maturity, work ethic or fundamentals - they fail. The guys who might not have the greatest physical gifts but have really high basketball IQ, great work ethic, good maturity, good head on their shoulders, solid fundamentals, know how to process the game and do it quickly, who show strong production, play winning basketball, play team basketball - they have long, productive NBA careers.

[The Moose]

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[EMG518]

I have a hard time envisioning Dillingham not scoring 20+ per a game in the NBA.

[King Ken]

I have a hard time envisioning Dillingham not scoring 20+ per a game in the NBA.

I see him in the mold of Monta Ellis. He can score 20+ but who's gonna give him those mins. IQ is probably a good measuring stick for him.

[EMG518]

I have a hard time envisioning Dillingham not scoring 20+ per a game in the NBA.

I see him in the mold of Monta Ellis. He can score 20+ but who's gonna give him those mins. IQ is probably a good measuring stick for him.

I would bet he is better than both of them.

A lot better.

[clyde21]

If Dilly was like 4 inches taller he'd be the best player in the draft

Unfortunately he's tiny and in the NBA an inch could make or break you

[Hal14]

I have a hard time envisioning Dillingham not scoring 20+ per a game in the NBA.

I see him in the mold of Monta Ellis. He can score 20+ but who's gonna give him those mins. IQ is probably a good measuring stick for him.

C'mon now. Rob and IQ are completely different in terms of playmaking.

IQ was 11% assist rate in college. Rob is at 32.6%.

As an 18 yr old freshman, Rob is averaging 14 PPG and 44% from 3. IQ's freshman yr he averaged 5 PPG and shot 34% from 3.

They are similar build. And similar in how they move (really quick, fluid the way they move and with herky jerky movements which throw the defender off, not knowing which way he's gonna go).

But IQ is more of like a microwave scorer off the bench. Rob has the potential to be a true lead guard, in the mold of like Darius Garland..