What to learn from busts

[Jazzfan12]

Looking at the recent top 10 busts:

Wes Johnson
Al-Farouq Aminu
Haseem Thabeet
Jonny Flynn
Michael Beasley
OJ Mayo
Joe Alexander
Greg Oden (would have been awesome without injuries )
Jeff Green
Yi
Corey Brewer
Brandan Wright
Adam Morrison
Tyrus Thomas
Shelden Williams
Randy Foye
Patrick O'Bryant
Saer Sene


What changes in draft philosophy should GMs make after the failure of these guys to become starters or even NBA players? Busts will always happen, but do you think certain things in the drafting process needs to change for GMs to dodge some of these busts?

[Cammo101]

There seem to be 3 categories here...

1. Over athletic tweeners who could play either position in college and neither in the NBA
2. Raw, athletic big men
3. Under-athletic players who found their lack of athletic ability hurt them more in the NBA

[babyjax13]

I would say that Green is a disappointment, but not a bust. Looking at that list, big athletic players with no clear intangibles are risky (I'll call this the 'mythical beasts') - too risky for the lottery in most cases. Players with bad attitudes or that have been in college for four years also seems risky.

'Mythical Beasts'
Patrick O'Bryant
Hasheem Thabeet
Tyrus Thomas
Sear Sene
Yi JianLian

Older Players/players that suddenly improved
Wes Johnson
Adam Morrison
Corey Brewer (junior?)
Johnny Flynn
Randy Foye

There are obviously lots of exceptions.

[Kaner]

I'll call this the 'mythical beasts'

that was an awesome post

[[RCG]]

Looking at the recent top 10 busts:

Wes Johnson
Al-Farouq Aminu
Haseem Thabeet
Jonny Flynn
Michael Beasley
OJ Mayo
Joe Alexander
Greg Oden
Jeff Green
Yi Jialian
Corey Brewer
Brandan Wright
Adam Morrison
Tyrus Thomas
Shelden William
Randy Foye
Patrick O'Bryant
Saer Sene


What changes in draft philosophy should GMs make after the failure of these guys to become starters or even NBA players? Busts will always happen, but do you think certain things in the drafting process needs to change for GMs to dodge some of these busts?

Players who may be 'busts' in the sense they haven't produced like all-stars but are still solid players.
Players who are role-players in the NBA or could become so.
Players who are absolute busts.

[Jazzfan12]

Meh, I wouldn't call any of the yellow guys other than maybe Brewer as NBA role players. AF Aminu has negative 1.2 offensive win shares in his career, Jonny Flynn isn't good enough to be a backup PG, Tyrus Thomas might be having the worst season ever this year.

[Crazy-Canuck]

1. Avoid Tweeners, especially SF/PF. I dont think there has been one success story here.
2. Avoid project bigs
3. Avoid overaged upperclassmen

You cant account for everything, but you would do well drafting just by avoiding those 3.

[Roger Murdock]

Nothing can be learned from Greg Oden - Great player, terrible luck. Basically just hope you don't get unlucky.

Guys taken for their size and athleticism, despite no tape showing they had any skill for playing basketball at all. If you want good basketball players draft good basketball players, not complete unknowns like Sene or obvious scrubs like Thabeet or O'Bryant. Most casual fans knew Thabeet couldn't play in the NBA.
Patrick O'Bryant
Saer Sene
Haseem Thabeet
Joe Alexander
Yi

These guys were drafted to be superstars in the NBA, and when they show they can't be superstars in the NBA they don't fit as role players. They dont do many little things to help win games. They need to shoot to be effective, and don't deserve to take a bunch of shots.
Michael Beasley
OJ Mayo

These guys were drafted as athletes, had extremely questionable skills sets, and no true position. Not great college production either.
Al-Farouq Aminu
Tyrus Thomas
Brandan Wright

These guys were taken for being good in college without more thought about how their games translated to college. They were older and had less room to improve as players. Ammo needed to be an elite scorer in the NBA to be any good, and that obviously wasn't going to happen. Sheldon Williams was a 5th bigman type of player who went 5th overall. Wesley Johnson was drafted for no reason. Flynn and Brewer didn't have the talent to translate well in the NBA. I'm not sure what people thought they were supposed to be as pros.
Adam Morrison
Shelden Williams
Wes Johnson
Jonny Flynn
Corey Brewer

These were the only two players on this list that I liked as prospects, and they are probably the two best players of the group despite being disappointments. They had well rounded games that translate well, they just could never put it all together and excel in the NBA.
Jeff Green
Randy Foye

[MalonesElbows]

Avoid college players who do not show noticeable improvement each year of college. This is a good way to snuff out the lazy or low IQ players. Obviously this is useless for the one and dones. Here is this year's candidates that don't pass my litmus test of improvement: Terrence Jones, Perry Jones III

[NO-KG-AI]

Guys that are really big and athletic should make an impact if they are going to be any good. If they aren't, something is very wrong.

Oden was obviously raw, injured, and foul prone, and he still made a massive impact at OSU. Guys like Patrick O'Bryant? Hahaha.

3/4 tweeners? We've been knowing that these guys bust since forever.

Undersized, ground bound bigs, who bully guys with strength and below basket games?

[postertag]

Jeff Green
Players who are absolute busts.

That's pretty harsh given the other players on this list...

[Piecake]

Guys that are really big and athletic should make an impact if they are going to be any good. If they aren't, something is very wrong.

Oden was obviously raw, injured, and foul prone, and he still made a massive impact at OSU. Guys like Patrick O'Bryant? Hahaha.

3/4 tweeners? We've been knowing that these guys bust since forever.

Undersized, ground bound bigs, who bully guys with strength and below basket games?

That pretty much describes Pekovic right there (though he does have some good post moves), and that dude is beastin

Derrick Williams is playing well in the past 2 weeks and most people call him a 3/4 tweener, though I think he could play the 4 fine since he is big enough and has a good reach

[Eoghan]

Jeff Green
Players who are absolute busts.

That's pretty harsh given the other players on this list...

Yeah, Jeff Green has had his fair share of injury problems too. It didn't help his case that when he was healthy he basically had to play behind Durant or out of position at the 4.

IMO the absolute busts on this list are:
Thabeet
Joe Alexander
Oden (injuries)
Adam Morrison (injuries)
Patrick O'Bryant
Saer Sene
Shelden Williams

Guys on the verge of being washed out of the league:
Tyrus Thomas
Jonny Flynn
Corey Brewer
Yi Jianlian

Role Players:
Wes Johnson
Al-Farouq Aminu
Jeff Green (if he comes back healthy)
Brandan Wright (barely)

And not busts by any means but didn't fulfill the hype:
OJ Mayo
Michael Beasley
Randy Foye

[Dr Positivity]

I think...

- Explosiveness is overrated for PGs in the post handcheck era. Doesn't really matter if Flynn and Bayless are fast if they can't score at the rim or from 3 and have weak court vision

- Throw a red flag when a SG/SF is weak off the dribble, or is being drafted solely for his shooting unless he's a freak at it like a Redick or Klay. Especially if they haven't been elite shooters their whole career or have a 70s FT% (ie. Wes Johnson)

- Scoring at the rim as a PF/C is more about skill than your height. At every position high end skill and instincts matters more than athleticism for game changing scoring, but that's ignored far more for big men

- Watch out for players who score at the rim in college but don't have the right toolset to do it in the NBA. Beasley is the best example of this to me to go along with someone like Flynn.

The biggest one that list tells me: Drafting players for their defensive potential is a bad idea. They're just too young and the physical talent gap is too big to be certain that they'll be dynamic players defensively in the NBA. Think of all the great physical specimens in the NBA who are scrubs. Living off your defense is hard, especially when the player is on his rookie deal, all young players are bad at D. Thabeet, Udoh, Hill, Brewer, Tyrus, Aminu, Aldrich, etc. Washington drafted Chris Singleton 18 last year after a dominant defensive season in college. What's happening in the NBA? He isn't showing up at all defensively (not as physically dominant, too young) so what's left is his complete lack of an offensive game. So now you've got a guy that is unplayable now and could be out of the league in 3 years, before he becomes old enough to be a defensive specialist, if he ever became one. I think that unless you're looking at a potentially dominant defender like an A Davis, the best odds are to take the offensive prospects and then fill in the defensive holes later in FA and trades, when players prove it in the NBA

[Jazzfan12]

Udoh is a pretty awesome defender and might be the best big man the Warriors have though.

[UGA Hayes]

Be super wary of older players if you look at that list.

Also I'm not sure Branden Wright is going to end up a bust. He was injured pretty much all the time. He has played very well this year.

[Rockmaninoff]

Looking at the recent top 10 busts:

Wes Johnson
Al-Farouq Aminu
Haseem Thabeet
Jonny Flynn
Michael Beasley
OJ Mayo
Joe Alexander
Greg Oden (would have been awesome without injuries )
Jeff Green
Yi
Corey Brewer
Brandan Wright
Adam Morrison
Tyrus Thomas
Shelden Williams
Randy Foye
Patrick O'Bryant
Saer Sene


What changes in draft philosophy should GMs make after the failure of these guys to become starters or even NBA players? Busts will always happen, but do you think certain things in the drafting process needs to change for GMs to dodge some of these busts?

1. Don't select junior and seniors that didn't produce efficiently as freshman or sophomores.

2. Don't select weak/light/soft big men and expect them to handle NBA paint physicality.

3. Don't select players that are projected by their size/athleticism to play a dissimilar NBA position, if the player doesn't have the skills to play that position.

That applies to everyone except Oden, Flynn, Green, Morrison, and Mayo. Oden, Flynn, and Green have had injury/health problems. Morrison is a case of a great college player that just didn't have the athleticism to play his position in the NBA. Mayo is a good player, but he was just a jumpshooter in the NCAA, and that hasn't changed.

Golden Rule: Don't select players and expect them to be what they haven't shown early.

[bballcool34]

Looking at the recent top 10 busts:

Wes Johnson
Al-Farouq Aminu
Haseem Thabeet
Jonny Flynn
Michael Beasley
OJ Mayo
Joe Alexander
Greg Oden
Jeff Green
Yi Jialian
Corey Brewer
Brandan Wright
Adam Morrison
Tyrus Thomas
Shelden William
Randy Foye
Patrick O'Bryant
Saer Sene


What changes in draft philosophy should GMs make after the failure of these guys to become starters or even NBA players? Busts will always happen, but do you think certain things in the drafting process needs to change for GMs to dodge some of these busts?

Players who may be 'busts' in the sense they haven't produced like all-stars but are still solid players.
Players who are role-players in the NBA or could become so.
Players who are absolute busts.

Jeff Green isn't an absolute bust, try again.

[theman]

I'd like to add one more to the list of things to avoid in a draft prospect. That is the Jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none. Think Julian Wright. Another one, now that I read Julian's nbadraft.net bio again is 6' 8" players with "point guard" skills. Earl Clark would fall into this category.

What about the flip side of the coin. How do you keep yourself from missing out on a future stud? How did Roy Hibbert all 7' 2" of him fall to #17? How did Mario Chalmers and DeAndre Jordan fall to the second round? How was it that Jeremy Lin was undrafted and cut by two teams?

And then there are guys who on paper don't seem like they should be as good as they are, like the 6' 9" rebounding machine Kevin Love or under sized shooting guard Eric Gordon.

I think William Goldman (while talking about the movie business) said it best "nobody knows anything".

[Superiorblogman]

The OP's list is seriously wack as it has people who are not busts on it. On the other hand, no bust list is complete without Marvin Williams on it.