Is there a drop off after three and seven?

[brackdan70]

well, I think now that the college season is a said and done.....almost. Order is set for me until Combine unless Amida Brimah has a huge championship game and declare - not likely.

I have Wiggins as a clear #1
Embiid as a clear #2,
Parker and Exum (pick for need) - (I'll admit Exum is a bit of a myth so he could rise or fall depending on workouts)
Randle, Smart, Vonleh, Gordon - I have all about the same.
after that there are a bunch of players who I think have top 10 type talent. I don't think there is a big drop off from top 8 but a little.
Intriguing Big fellas - Cauley -Stein, Capela, Nurkic
Nice Wings - Stauskis, Hood, Harris, Young, McDaniels, Warren
and then a number of players that could be anywhere from 15-30 - Ennis, McDermot, Payne, Harrell, Harriston, Anderson, Saric, Grant, Adams. I think there is a visible drop off after these guys...at 26. after that I don't see much NBA Talent. Sure maybe Early, LaVine, Micic, Bogdanavic and others, but I think they are stretches to make it in the league as rotation guys. ( Those Euros are intriguing...I wouldn't be surprised if they went first round.)

I would not be really surprised on the order that most of these guys outside the top 8 go in. I do think the top 8 is top 8 if teams are drafting BPA.

[BaunceyChillups]

Not sure what Wiggins has done to justify his place in the Top 3 when the entirety of his halfcourt offense is running into people and praying for a foul to be called.

[Cammo101]

Not sure what Wiggins has done to justify his place in the Top 3 when the entirety of his halfcourt offense is running into people and praying for a foul to be called.

By that rational, what did Embiid do to justify his place in the top 3?

[Mik317]

Not sure what Wiggins has done to justify his place in the Top 3 when the entirety of his halfcourt offense is running into people and praying for a foul to be called.

Outside of him joining a cult, getting hurt, or start a cocaine habit, there is no way Wiggins falls out of the top 3. Even if it is based off of what ifs alone. Exum is too unknown and may force his way to the team of his choice. Randle has his flaws in terms of tranlating to the next level. Hell if Parker is a bitch and goes back like a loser (jk) then he is even more of a lock.

Parker and Embiid are the only realistic canidates I can see going over him at this moment and neither of them has officially declared yet..sooo I think Wiggins is pretty close to being a lock at this point.

[Cammo101]

Not sure what Wiggins has done to justify his place in the Top 3 when the entirety of his halfcourt offense is running into people and praying for a foul to be called.

Outside of him joining a cult, getting hurt, or start a cocaine habit, there is no way Wiggins falls out of the top 3. Even if it is based off of what ifs alone. Exum is too unknown and may force his way to the team of his choice. Randle has his flaws in terms of tranlating to the next level. Hell if Parker is a bitch and goes back like a loser (jk) then he is even more of a lock.

Parker and Embiid are the only realistic canidates I can see going over him at this moment and neither of them has officially declared yet..sooo I think Wiggins is pretty close to being a lock at this point.

I think the Parker going ahead of Wiggins train has pretty much run out of gas at this point. I'd be shocked if Wiggins fell past #2.

[HornetJail]

Is there a drop off after three and seven, as in the tiers below? (Players within a tier not particularly in order)

Embiid
Parker
Wiggins

Exum
Randle
Vonleh
Smart

I would agree with this list 100%... but Smart shouldn't even get drafted in the lottery.

[jmnvcavs]

Haven't seen enough of Exum to say the dropoff is after Wiggins, Parker, Embiid.

[brackdan70]

Is there a drop off after three and seven, as in the tiers below? (Players within a tier not particularly in order)

Embiid
Parker
Wiggins

Exum
Randle
Vonleh
Smart

I would agree with this list 100%... but Smart shouldn't even get drafted in the lottery.

so more like 85.7%

[cammac]

Think there is enough agreement on the top 3 will be Parker, Embid and Wiggins in no particular order.

After that it gets much more complicated.

Exum lets get real no one knows how good he can be and with the info available you must look at him as a tweener PG/SG. Will his agent let him be in the combines or try out for individual teams? If he doesn't preform will he could fall past 10th. Think you will see him at combines but then pull a Waiters.

Smart really wasn't very smart and definitely looks like he will be a combo guard in the NBA do you draft a combo guard in the top 10?

PFs think it gets to who you like best Randle, Vonieh, McDermott, Saric, Capella are put your names in a bag and pick them. Definitely no Davis in the group more potential like Tristin Thomas upside.

C very thin Nuric or Cauley- Stein think both have back-up careers better picking a junior or senior in 2nd round.

PG Ennis really no one else

SG Harris, Stauskas, Hairston, Adams

SF Hood, Grant,

Freak Anderson

Huge Stretch LaVine

My top 15
Wiggins
Embid
Parker
Exum
Vonieh
Randle
Saric
Stauskas
Smart
Harris
Hood
Ennis
Capella
Saric
Cauley-Stein

[E-Balla]

The consensus top 10 by tiers
Top level:
Parker (potential bust - highly unlikely)
Embiid (potential bust - likely)
Wiggins (potential bust - not likely unless taken first where the expectations are higher)

Next level:
Randle (potential bust - maybe. Not sold on a short PF with no type of length)
Exum (potential bust - not likely. Reminds me of Rose/Wade with his slashing and I'm a big fan of both of them at their peak)
Smart (potential bust - highly unlikely. Defensively he might be the best guard I've ever seen when he retires)

Next level:
Vonleh (potential bust - unlikely. Has length and is skilled. Won't be a star though)
Aaron Gordon (potential bust - 99% sure he will be a bust. Athletic Jared Jeffries with less size)
McDermott (potential bust - small chance but just as much of a chance as his chance to become a great scorer a la Glen Rice)
Tyler Ennis (potential bust - highly unlikely. Great BBIQ will always translate)

People who I think should be in lottery:
(Tier 1)Parker, Wiggins, Embiid, (Tier 2)Randle, Exum, Smart, (Tier 3)Vonleh, Saric, McDermott, Ennis, Stauskas, Anderson, Payne

After those 13 there's a huge dropoff in talent.

[arambone]

Top 21, take heed:

Embiid Wiggins

Exum Smart
Nurkic
Parker
Gordon

Randle
Anderson Saric
Vonleh Capela
Harris
WCS

McD
Ennis
Warren
Harrell

LaVine

Young
Hood

[karkinos]

i'm stunned lavine went up to 13 in chad ford's latest mock draft
i get that the tools are there, but i'm not sure if he actually achieved anything to deserve such a high ranking.

[ManualRam]

i'm stunned lavine went up to 13 in chad ford's latest mock draft
i get that the tools are there, but i'm not sure if he actually achieved anything to deserve such a high ranking.

kids don't really have to achieve anything to be drafted highly anymore. 1 and done players aren't drafted for what they are at the time they're drafted.

[karkinos]

i'm stunned lavine went up to 13 in chad ford's latest mock draft
i get that the tools are there, but i'm not sure if he actually achieved anything to deserve such a high ranking.

kids don't really have to achieve anything to be drafted highly anymore. 1 and done players aren't drafted for what they are at the time they're drafted.

true, but even most lottery picks still have a decent performance exhibiting their strong skill sets throughout the year

like, what has lavine done other than look good while dribbling or shooting? everything he tossed up was a brick. i just find it hilarious he gets a "shooter" reputation when he struggles to score and put up 0 3pters in the tourney. his offense is basically layups/dunks and 3's, and he doesn't really attempt midrange jumpers. on top of that, he's a TERRIBLE FT shooter. when was his last good game? january?

i get he looks awesome when the ball is in his hands, but all i'm saying is that he doesn't actually do anything productive with it.

[arambone]

Cancer, you're going to regret piling on LaVine and writing him off.

You know darn well Zach dazzled the bball world first half of the season, and went from an unknown to a concensus lotto pick by the end of december.

I bet ucla's coach finding excuses to play his own son messed with Zach's head big time. All of sudden LaVine's dropping from 30 mpg to less than 20, and coaches son is getting significant minutes. Zach wasn't allowed to play through mistakes like Wiggins and every other freshman.

A bold and brazen emerging superstar was suddenly playing tentative and second guessing himself, at the same time coach's son is getting Zach's minutes. Even Anderson wasn't able to dribble the ball up court often, because coach insisted that his son do it. Coach had an agenda, and an obvious conflict of interest.

Add to that LaVine was competing with adams and anderson, both veterans and bigtime college stars, and projected first round picks.

Lol, cancer, you act like you can't figure out what scouts see in him. But i don't hear you laughing at Exum being projected top 5. Hmmm.

LaVine is legit in the wide open nba. Might be one of the best athletes in the nba, and one of the best 3 pt shooters. Major star potential, obviously.

[arambone]

How quickly we forget that LaVine was setting the bball world of fire while Wiggins was stinking it up and everybody was urging patience.

Wiggins poor half season is a distant memory, but LaVine's poor half season draws no sympathetic plees of patience from the hype driven masses.

If anything, LaVine's late blooming as a suddenly not short prodigy should make people suspect that he has more unexhibited future development than early bloomers who have been playing at the same height and the same position for a couple few years.

[ManualRam]

i'm stunned lavine went up to 13 in chad ford's latest mock draft
i get that the tools are there, but i'm not sure if he actually achieved anything to deserve such a high ranking.

kids don't really have to achieve anything to be drafted highly anymore. 1 and done players aren't drafted for what they are at the time they're drafted.

true, but even most lottery picks still have a decent performance exhibiting their strong skill sets throughout the year

like, what has lavine done other than look good while dribbling or shooting? everything he tossed up was a brick. i just find it hilarious he gets a "shooter" reputation when he struggles to score and put up 0 3pters in the tourney. his offense is basically layups/dunks and 3's, and he doesn't really attempt midrange jumpers. on top of that, he's a TERRIBLE FT shooter. when was his last good game? january?

i get he looks awesome when the ball is in his hands, but all i'm saying is that he doesn't actually do anything productive with it.

how a player moves on the court could be good enough to interest scouts since hypothetically skill and the application of skill can be learned. that's basically why raw project big men are taken high. with more one and done's, that could also apply to wings now too. just look at b.mclemore for instance. he was more productive and i think his role had something to do with that, but his actual basketball skill for a wing is minimal. he was taken in the lotto. now imagine if mclemore with his athleticism and shot, grew up as a PG as a opposed to an athletic big who eventually became a wing in HS. lavine's athleticism for a wing, which is only behind wiggins in this draft imo, cannot be taught. his quickness in everything he does on the court is effortless. it also helps that he grew up as a PG so he's comfortable with the ball in his hands and he can shoot. not that i agree with it, but with his background as a PG, maybe some scouts envision that possibly being his LT pro position as well, which would give him even more of a stock boost.

[karkinos]

how a player moves on the court could be good enough to interest scouts since hypothetically skill and the application of skill can be learned. that's basically why raw project big men are taken high. with more one and done's, that could also apply to wings now too. just look at b.mclemore for instance. he was more productive and i think his role had something to do with that, but his actual basketball skill for a wing is minimal. he was taken in the lotto. now imagine if mclemore with his athleticism and shot, grew up as a PG as a opposed to an athletic big who eventually became a wing in HS. lavine's athleticism for a wing, which is only behind wiggins in this draft imo, cannot be taught. his quickness in everything he does on the court is effortless. it also helps that he grew up as a PG so he's comfortable with the ball in his hands and he can shoot. not that i agree with it, but with his background as a PG, maybe some scouts envision that possibly being his LT pro position as well, which would give him even more of a stock boost.

lol dude i get it

i think you're taking my posts far too seriously
you don't need to justify your stance. i totally understand it. i just hate that he gets a boost for looking like a basketball player (ie. cedric bozeman) than being one.

[arambone]

LaVine is so athletic and good from 3pt line that any tiny ability to play pg puts him in the poor man's penny hardaway caliber.

I mean, Damion Lillard caliber combo guard is a real possibility. And with LaVine's outstanding length, even if he shows no competence for pg he is still athletic and deadly enough to create his own offense from anywhere, and takeover games. How frequently, we will see, but the kid shot like 50percent from 3 on high volume for half a season, right out of the gate.

He also has serious transition defense potential, like Wiggins. Two of the fastest guys down the court in the nba and great length on both of them. And they can both touch their heads on the rim.

Exum is unproven as an outside shooter, and his release is slower than Zach's. Exum also isn't near the vertical athlete that Zach is.
And by some local accounts, Exum isnt much of a natural passer.

[karkinos]

How quickly we forget that LaVine was setting the bball world of fire while Wiggins was stinking it up and everybody was urging patience.

Wiggins poor half season is a distant memory, but LaVine's poor half season draws no sympathetic plees of patience from the hype driven masses.

wait
did you really just compare wiggins' season to lavine's?
first
wiggins didn't suck for a whole half of a season

second, wiggins had a few bad games in between stretches of good games

outside of the first half season of non-conference play, lavine had stretches of bad games with a few decent games throw in between

big fkn difference