Philly Wiggins Smoke Screen

[BoutPractice]

Yeah, but the question is what you use the data for. Do you track steals, rebounds and blocks because you're tracking athleticism, or because you're tracking effort? What is it exactly you want to evaluate in Wiggins?

If you want to know if he's athletic, you already know he is. If you want to know if he's putting in the effort and doing the dirty stuff, you already know he's not doing that enough. But you also know he plays better when challenged, which is encouraging evidence of untapped potential (unlike potential that's just "assumed").

What else then? Steals, rebounds and blocks require timing and anticipation. Does Wiggins lack in this area? There are enough plays where he displayed just those qualities for me to seriously doubt it.

Stats wise, I'm much more worried about the lack of finishing at the rim. Either he needs to bulk up, or he needs to become not just good but great at shooting if he wants to be a reliable scorer at the next level.

[mrmsix6]

You also have to account for noise at the college level that affects these numbers, for example defensive system (perimeter guys in zones tend to rack up more steals) and position (Jabari played mostly PF and C at Duke, likely inflating his block numbers).

That said, you can presume that any NBA front office is using metrics way, way beyond block/steal rate and the advanced stats produced by guys like Pelton.

[greenandgold]

You also have to account for noise at the college level that affects these numbers, for example defensive system (perimeter guys in zones tend to rack up more steals) and position (Jabari played mostly PF and C at Duke, likely inflating his block numbers).

That said, you can presume that any NBA front office is using metrics way, way beyond block/steal rate and the advanced stats produced by guys like Pelton.

Way, way beyond block/steal rate but WARP is exactly the kind of system NBA franchises use. Pelton, who works for ESPN, is just as well-respected in statistical circles as guys like John Hollinger, who work for an NBA front office. There's no magic dust.

Word is Philly is happy to take Embiid at 3, even with the injury issues. My guess is that he was the original target in a trade up to the #1 spot.

If you're invested in analytics then you're going to dislike Wiggins as a high end prospect. There's no statistical evidence that shows it's likely Wiggins is going to become an NBA star. He'll have to overperform his projection like Westbrook did. It could happen but the odds are against it.

[repandpresent]

Smoke screen or not. Warp list or not. What ever Philly has been doing behind the scenes isn't working. The draft has become one big mathematically problem. The NFL included.

[greenandgold]

Smoke screen or not. Warp list or not. What ever Philly has been doing behind the scenes isn't working. The draft has become one big mathematically problem. The NFL included.

Hinkie, and his statistical focus, has only run Philly's front office one season. How do we know for certain whether things are working or not?

I like Hinkie's moves. My guess is Philly comes back to contention before the Lakers do.