the eventual downfall of American talent...

[sipclip]

The answer to this is a resounding no. 10 years ago all we heard was that foreign players were going to take the nba by storm and what we have seen over the last 10yrs is that we continue to produce the best players in the nba and in fact we have seen a regression in the amount of elite foreign players.

[ohio]

Population decline is meaningless. In last 100 years we went from 1 billion to 7 billion people. People are projecting the global population to be 9 billion by 2050. There are too many people on this planet as is.

Keep in mind a woman needs to have 2 children just to maintain the population.

Is there too many people? Yes, but that's more due to people living longer, actually, last 100 years we went from 1.7b to 7, if that's your ROI that would be significantly different than what you've said. Aging is absolutely killing Europe/Japan, quite literally.

It's not about the total #s it's about the growth rate, the growth rate is half of what it was 50 years ago, and even that's thanks to Africa, Europe isn't growing at all, US is barely breaking even with help of immigration, immigration is saving a lot of developed countries in terms of replacement, what happens in terms of population when baby boomers die off? The overall world population is so large because of this compounding effect, but the growth rate is down, way down.

Europe and Japan are at zero population growth, China is very close to achieving it also.

In the next 20-25 years Europe's native population is going to have higher loses than it had in 2 world wars and the Spanish flu combined and the average age is going to go up to 50 which is never before seen in the history of the human race.
After 2020 Europe is in for a real s*** storm. The most numerous generations are about to die off and the smallest ones are about to become parents and have even less children. 40+ years of sub-replacement fertility rates are going to hit the continent hard. With this current demographic situation there is no way that Europe is ever going to have stable economical growth again in our lifetime. It's only going to get worse and worse.
And you can't rely forever on mass immigration.UK and France native populations for example are going to become minorities in their own countries by the middle of the century. Western Europe is getting Balkanised and you know how well that goes.

Not well.

You know I was with the whole "omg world is getting too crowded" movement until I've read up on these statistics and problems that are unspoken of (at least in the US). The immigration issue always comes up as this negative but it's what keeps a lot of places afloat. When the population is old, athletic talent become a luxury, old men follow sports but they don't play them, we very well might be at the peak of talent right now.

Of course we don't realize it while we live in it, but this might be the period of time we look back on as the golden age. The effects are already there to a degree, who's there to follow up on LeBron? if AD is the answer (who's best case KG), then we're in trouble.

[Sixerscan]

Klay Thompson - son of a former NBA player (Mychal).
Kobe Bryant - son of a former NBA player(Joe).
Jerami Grant - son of a former NBA player (Harvey).
Jerian Grant - son of a former NBA player (Harvey).
Steph Curry - son of a former NBA player (Dell).
Wes Matthews - son of a former NBA player (Wes Sr.).
Gerald Henderson - son of a former NBA player (Gerald Sr.).
Garrett Temple - son a former ABA player (Collis Jr.) - dad was drafted by the Suns
Austin Rivers - son of a former NBA player (Glen "Doc").

All these guys are in the league right now. All of these guys grew up middle class or better and yet somehow they are in the NBA. Some of these guys have genetic advantages over anyone such as height and/or athleticism.

You forgot Wiggins & Horford.

But that's out of 450+ players, Klay's and Steph's brothers have the same genetics but are dleague players, and Wiggins has 2 brothers that aren't even in the dleague, plenty of people have the genetics that take to make it, it's so clear that mentality is a much bigger factor.

Most nba players had kids, statistically if they had at least one then more than 50% had sons, but the fact that you only have about a dozen of them in the nba out of pool of 1000s is quite telling about genetics, that's less than 3%

Yes the % is much higher than out of general population but for a sport where genetics are suppose to account for so much, it's not convincing.

Wait, you're taking that 3% number as evidence that genetics DOESN'T play a huge factor?

Because that's is EXCELLENT evidence. Forget about the world population for a second, there are 55 million males aged 18-44 in the US alone. Yeah, a 3% chance doesn't seem all that great... until you consider that the American population at large has like a 0.0008% chance. In other words, the average son of an ex-NBA player is about 4000 times more likely to make the NBA than the average American male. Doing this with the world population would make the difference even more jarring.

[ohio]

Klay Thompson - son of a former NBA player (Mychal).
Kobe Bryant - son of a former NBA player(Joe).
Jerami Grant - son of a former NBA player (Harvey).
Jerian Grant - son of a former NBA player (Harvey).
Steph Curry - son of a former NBA player (Dell).
Wes Matthews - son of a former NBA player (Wes Sr.).
Gerald Henderson - son of a former NBA player (Gerald Sr.).
Garrett Temple - son a former ABA player (Collis Jr.) - dad was drafted by the Suns
Austin Rivers - son of a former NBA player (Glen "Doc").

All these guys are in the league right now. All of these guys grew up middle class or better and yet somehow they are in the NBA. Some of these guys have genetic advantages over anyone such as height and/or athleticism.

You forgot Wiggins & Horford.

But that's out of 450+ players, Klay's and Steph's brothers have the same genetics but are dleague players, and Wiggins has 2 brothers that aren't even in the dleague, plenty of people have the genetics that take to make it, it's so clear that mentality is a much bigger factor.

Most nba players had kids, statistically if they had at least one then more than 50% had sons, but the fact that you only have about a dozen of them in the nba out of pool of 1000s is quite telling about genetics, that's less than 3%

Yes the % is much higher than out of general population but for a sport where genetics are suppose to account for so much, it's not convincing.

Wait, you're taking that 3% number as evidence that genetics DOESN'T play a huge factor?

Because that's is EXCELLENT evidence. Forget about the world population for a second, there are 55 million males aged 18-44 in the US alone. Yeah, a 3% chance doesn't seem all that great... until you consider that the American population at large has like a 0.0008% chance. In other words, the average son of an ex-NBA player is about 4000 times more likely to make the NBA than the average American male. Doing this with the world population would make the difference even more jarring.

This is assuming that every one of them have the physical tools (height, body type, strength, healthy enough to play physical sport etc), which isn't the case, only 1 in 10,000 people are 6'6 (which is average nba height). When all those things are considered you have to consider the biggest qualifier, having interest in playing the sport and then having a strong love for the game to the point of taking it to the extreme where it ends up being what you do.

The odds are much lower than you think.

[Sixerscan]

You forgot Wiggins & Horford.

But that's out of 450+ players, Klay's and Steph's brothers have the same genetics but are dleague players, and Wiggins has 2 brothers that aren't even in the dleague, plenty of people have the genetics that take to make it, it's so clear that mentality is a much bigger factor.

Most nba players had kids, statistically if they had at least one then more than 50% had sons, but the fact that you only have about a dozen of them in the nba out of pool of 1000s is quite telling about genetics, that's less than 3%

Yes the % is much higher than out of general population but for a sport where genetics are suppose to account for so much, it's not convincing.

Wait, you're taking that 3% number as evidence that genetics DOESN'T play a huge factor?

Because that's is EXCELLENT evidence. Forget about the world population for a second, there are 55 million males aged 18-44 in the US alone. Yeah, a 3% chance doesn't seem all that great... until you consider that the American population at large has like a 0.0008% chance. In other words, the average son of an ex-NBA player is about 4000 times more likely to make the NBA than the average American male. Doing this with the world population would make the difference even more jarring.

This is assuming that every one of them have the physical tools (height, body type, strength, healthy enough to play physical sport etc), which isn't the case, only 1 in 10,000 people are 6'6 (which is average nba height). When all those things are considered you have to consider the biggest qualifier, having interest in playing the sport and then having a strong love for the game to the point of taking it to the extreme where it ends up being what you do.

The odds are much lower than you think.

Wait, your point was that genetics doesn't play a huge role in who makes the league, and you want to remove everyone that is shorter than 6'6" from your data set? Where do you think that height comes from?

Of course being interested in the sport is necessary to playing the sport, genetics plays a huge role though. Your dad doesn't need to play in the league for him to have had fantastic genetics, and remember your father only gives you half of your genes...

[BoutPractice]

Suppose your social darwinist theory is right. For what you predict to come true, the United States would have to become a more equal country where the rough ghetto conditions you talked about are a thing of the past.

That would be fantastic news - compared to any hypothetical consequence on basketball, of all things - but it's not going to happen.

[dolphinatik]

social economic standing might affect your motivation or desire to work hard to succeed in the NBA but lets not kid ourselves Lebron is a genetic freak and would have been good at basketball even if his father was Bill Gates.

Focus is the main attribute that harnesses talent, separates the leaders from the pack and motivates beyond the average regardless of the initial driving force.

Now I will say Ben Simmons looks legit for a non American prospect and look forward to seeing how he progresses in his journey to the NBA.

Interest and desire not economic standing is what makes a great basketball player, musician, olympian, writer, artist, inventor, engineer, soldier etc. How many great American rugby players are there? lack of interest and desire. We are people that can break through barriers and refuse to be confined to a simple expectation of limits.

[Chuck Everett]

Ben Simmons' father is an American from NYC who played in college before having an Australian career and marrying an Aussie (as such their entire family should have a dual passports). Ben's godfather is on the LSU staff. I mean, even some of these international players have American parents who hooped in the NCAA first like Dante Exum and Tony Parker. We can deny genetics, but it really seems odd. Like I didn't realize Delon Wright was Dorrell Wright's brother, but I guess I should have.

[jman3134]

Klay Thompson - son of a former NBA player (Mychal).
Kobe Bryant - son of a former NBA player(Joe).
Jerami Grant - son of a former NBA player (Harvey).
Jerian Grant - son of a former NBA player (Harvey).
Steph Curry - son of a former NBA player (Dell).
Wes Matthews - son of a former NBA player (Wes Sr.).
Gerald Henderson - son of a former NBA player (Gerald Sr.).
Garrett Temple - son a former ABA player (Collis Jr.) - dad was drafted by the Suns
Austin Rivers - son of a former NBA player (Glen "Doc").

All these guys are in the league right now. All of these guys grew up middle class or better and yet somehow they are in the NBA. Some of these guys have genetic advantages over anyone such as height and/or athleticism.

You forgot Wiggins & Horford.

But that's out of 450+ players, Klay's and Steph's brothers have the same genetics but are dleague players, and Wiggins has 2 brothers that aren't even in the dleague, plenty of people have the genetics that take to make it, it's so clear that mentality is a much bigger factor.

Most nba players had kids, statistically if they had at least one then more than 50% had sons, but the fact that you only have about a dozen of them in the nba out of pool of 1000s is quite telling about genetics, that's less than 3%

Yes the % is much higher than out of general population but for a sport where genetics are suppose to account for so much, it's not convincing.

I didn't forget Tito Horford or Mitchell Wiggins, but didn't mention them because a lot of people consider their children to be foreign players (although to me, they are culturally close to your average American black player).

Basketball is a city game. Most black people are from the city. So the decline in America would mean that black people don't want to play basketball anymore. Can't see how that is possible considering how rich you can become doing it, especially if you have the right size, athleticism and skillset. Wealth has nothing to do it.

This is not unfathomable though. Look at the downfall of NYC basketball talent. It is squarely a cultural phenomenon - whether or not the sport retains its popularity over the years.

[reanimator]

You forgot Wiggins & Horford.

But that's out of 450+ players, Klay's and Steph's brothers have the same genetics but are dleague players, and Wiggins has 2 brothers that aren't even in the dleague, plenty of people have the genetics that take to make it, it's so clear that mentality is a much bigger factor.

Most nba players had kids, statistically if they had at least one then more than 50% had sons, but the fact that you only have about a dozen of them in the nba out of pool of 1000s is quite telling about genetics, that's less than 3%

Yes the % is much higher than out of general population but for a sport where genetics are suppose to account for so much, it's not convincing.

I didn't forget Tito Horford or Mitchell Wiggins, but didn't mention them because a lot of people consider their children to be foreign players (although to me, they are culturally close to your average American black player).

Basketball is a city game. Most black people are from the city. So the decline in America would mean that black people don't want to play basketball anymore. Can't see how that is possible considering how rich you can become doing it, especially if you have the right size, athleticism and skillset. Wealth has nothing to do it.

This is not unfathomable though. Look at the downfall of NYC basketball talent. It is squarely a cultural phenomenon - whether or not the sport retains its popularity over the years.

NYC's downfall has to do with migration, not culture.

[jman3134]

^ Explain?

I believe it is definitely part culture. Even if you are talking gentrification, basketball is not the same in the non-gentrified areas.....

[Chuck Everett]

I didn't forget Tito Horford or Mitchell Wiggins, but didn't mention them because a lot of people consider their children to be foreign players (although to me, they are culturally close to your average American black player).

Basketball is a city game. Most black people are from the city. So the decline in America would mean that black people don't want to play basketball anymore. Can't see how that is possible considering how rich you can become doing it, especially if you have the right size, athleticism and skillset. Wealth has nothing to do it.

This is not unfathomable though. Look at the downfall of NYC basketball talent. It is squarely a cultural phenomenon - whether or not the sport retains its popularity over the years.

NYC's downfall has to do with migration, not culture.

reanimator nailed it. I am from NYC. Most of the problems the city has stems from the lower class folks being unable to even afford to live there anymore. So some move further upstate, New Jersey, Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia. You will find tons of former New Yorkers living in those states now as they have been priced out. Just the way it will be as NYC has become a playground for the rich. Up until the early 90's, the city was still somewhat a blue collar town.

[dolphinatik]

how could we forget Kobe in this discussion. Grew up middle to upper middle class. son of a baller but clearly has the mentality to want to dominate

[Warspite]

Population decline is meaningless. In last 100 years we went from 1 billion to 7 billion people. People are projecting the global population to be 9 billion by 2050. There are too many people on this planet as is.

Keep in mind a woman needs to have 2 children just to maintain the population.

Is there too many people? Yes, but that's more due to people living longer, actually, last 100 years we went from 1.7b to 7, if that's your ROI that would be significantly different than what you've said. Aging is absolutely killing Europe/Japan, quite literally.

It's not about the total #s it's about the growth rate, the growth rate is half of what it was 50 years ago, and even that's thanks to Africa, Europe isn't growing at all, US is barely breaking even with help of immigration, immigration is saving a lot of developed countries in terms of replacement, what happens in terms of population when baby boomers die off? The overall world population is so large because of this compounding effect, but the growth rate is down, way down.

Europe and Japan are at zero population growth, China is very close to achieving it also.

Its staggering how bad the birth rate is in some European countries. France has a negative birth yet the avg Muslim immigrant in France has 8 children. Its said that in 30 yrs the French will be a minority in France. I don't understand Europeans. They don't read or work or have sex.

[ohio]

Population decline is meaningless. In last 100 years we went from 1 billion to 7 billion people. People are projecting the global population to be 9 billion by 2050. There are too many people on this planet as is.

Keep in mind a woman needs to have 2 children just to maintain the population.

Is there too many people? Yes, but that's more due to people living longer, actually, last 100 years we went from 1.7b to 7, if that's your ROI that would be significantly different than what you've said. Aging is absolutely killing Europe/Japan, quite literally.

It's not about the total #s it's about the growth rate, the growth rate is half of what it was 50 years ago, and even that's thanks to Africa, Europe isn't growing at all, US is barely breaking even with help of immigration, immigration is saving a lot of developed countries in terms of replacement, what happens in terms of population when baby boomers die off? The overall world population is so large because of this compounding effect, but the growth rate is down, way down.

Europe and Japan are at zero population growth, China is very close to achieving it also.

Its staggering how bad the birth rate is in some European countries. France has a negative birth yet the avg Muslim immigrant in France has 8 children. Its said that in 30 yrs the French will be a minority in France. I don't understand Europeans. They don't read or work or have sex.

Some of my more educated friends don't care bout children, some of my less educated friends act like it's the most important thing they could do in life. I don't know. I'd probably end up having kids so I'm not lonely as an old man because I'm a bitch like that, but I don't see how me pro creating or not would have any impact on the world, about the same reason why i don't vote.

Probably how a lot of people feel, then you have these elections where literally like 5% vote (there's more elections than just presidential elections) but back in less educated times people actually died for this right.

I think the thinking man actually thinks that he's doing the world a service by not pro creating, and seeing the overall current high population numbers really suggests that we don't need any more people, but he's not counting in the fact that a lot of people feel this way, the actual population is getting older and everyone has an expiration date, and that each woman needs to have like 2.1 children just to maintain the current population.

It's not like with nukes where now we have too many and have to figure out how to get rid of them, all men die.

[TheTrooper]

Population decline is meaningless. In last 100 years we went from 1 billion to 7 billion people. People are projecting the global population to be 9 billion by 2050. There are too many people on this planet as is.

Keep in mind a woman needs to have 2 children just to maintain the population.

Is there too many people? Yes, but that's more due to people living longer, actually, last 100 years we went from 1.7b to 7, if that's your ROI that would be significantly different than what you've said. Aging is absolutely killing Europe/Japan, quite literally.

It's not about the total #s it's about the growth rate, the growth rate is half of what it was 50 years ago, and even that's thanks to Africa, Europe isn't growing at all, US is barely breaking even with help of immigration, immigration is saving a lot of developed countries in terms of replacement, what happens in terms of population when baby boomers die off? The overall world population is so large because of this compounding effect, but the growth rate is down, way down.

Europe and Japan are at zero population growth, China is very close to achieving it also.

Its staggering how bad the birth rate is in some European countries. France has a negative birth yet the avg Muslim immigrant in France has 8 children. Its said that in 30 yrs the French will be a minority in France. I don't understand Europeans. They don't read or work or have sex.

Degeneration. Today's Europeans are inferior in comparison to almost every other generation before them in every possible way. We don't create innovations, children, companies or anything else anymore and have relatively higher standards of living because of the things left for us from some previous generations.
Just as the Roman Empire fell this Western civilization is going to suffer the same faith.All things die so do counties, civilizations, empires, people, animals....hell even the universe is going to end at one point.
You can look at Europeans as cells in one body. There are less and less of them and they are of lower quality every time. This is going to go on until the body (western society) dies. The only real difference is that the migration now is from south to north and the first time it used to be the other way around.


Btw The muslim women in France having 8 children is a myth. The number is much lower, but still higher that the number native French women has. I don't think France will have a muslim majority in our lifetime, but a non-white majority that is 99% going to happen.

[ohio]

Keep in mind a woman needs to have 2 children just to maintain the population.

Is there too many people? Yes, but that's more due to people living longer, actually, last 100 years we went from 1.7b to 7, if that's your ROI that would be significantly different than what you've said. Aging is absolutely killing Europe/Japan, quite literally.

It's not about the total #s it's about the growth rate, the growth rate is half of what it was 50 years ago, and even that's thanks to Africa, Europe isn't growing at all, US is barely breaking even with help of immigration, immigration is saving a lot of developed countries in terms of replacement, what happens in terms of population when baby boomers die off? The overall world population is so large because of this compounding effect, but the growth rate is down, way down.

Europe and Japan are at zero population growth, China is very close to achieving it also.

Its staggering how bad the birth rate is in some European countries. France has a negative birth yet the avg Muslim immigrant in France has 8 children. Its said that in 30 yrs the French will be a minority in France. I don't understand Europeans. They don't read or work or have sex.

Degeneration. Today's Europeans are inferior in comparison to almost every other generation before them in every possible way. We don't create innovations, children, companies or anything else anymore and have relatively higher standards of living because of the things left for us from some previous generations.
Just as the Roman Empire fell this Western civilization is going to suffer the same faith.All things die so do counties, civilizations, empires, people, animals....hell even the universe is going to end at one point.
You can look at Europeans as cells in one body. There are less and less of them and they are of lower quality every time. This is going to go on until the body (western society) dies. The only real difference is that the migration now is from south to north and the first time it used to be the other way around.


Btw The muslim women in France having 8 children is a myth. The number is much lower, but still higher that the number native French women has. I don't think France will have a muslim majority in our lifetime, but a non-white majority that is 99% going to happen.

you can safely group America with Europe with that generalization...

btw any chance you from London?

[NO-KG-AI]

American football and basketball are largely about being an extreme athletic outlier in terms of size/physical ability. The sports pay insane amounts of money, and almost no job in America can come remotely close to competing with that, so when it even looks like a guy could have a CHANCE to succeed in that field, he's going to be pushed toward it, and given the resources necessary to succeed.

How many families are making so much money that they'll push their 6'8 250 pound athletic monster of a son away from playing a sport that can net him anywhere from 10-300 million before he turns 40, not counting endorsements?

Have you even seen how parents act with athletic children? If he's the best player on his team as a 10 year old, everyone in the family assumes he has pro ability even when he doesn't. 99% of these guys won't even ever make it to a professional league, but tons and tons of them will be fighting for it.

Pro sports won't be going downhill anytime soon.

[TheTrooper]

Its staggering how bad the birth rate is in some European countries. France has a negative birth yet the avg Muslim immigrant in France has 8 children. Its said that in 30 yrs the French will be a minority in France. I don't understand Europeans. They don't read or work or have sex.

Degeneration. Today's Europeans are inferior in comparison to almost every other generation before them in every possible way. We don't create innovations, children, companies or anything else anymore and have relatively higher standards of living because of the things left for us from some previous generations.
Just as the Roman Empire fell this Western civilization is going to suffer the same faith.All things die so do counties, civilizations, empires, people, animals....hell even the universe is going to end at one point.
You can look at Europeans as cells in one body. There are less and less of them and they are of lower quality every time. This is going to go on until the body (western society) dies. The only real difference is that the migration now is from south to north and the first time it used to be the other way around.


Btw The muslim women in France having 8 children is a myth. The number is much lower, but still higher that the number native French women has. I don't think France will have a muslim majority in our lifetime, but a non-white majority that is 99% going to happen.

you can safely group America with Europe with that generalization...

btw any chance you from London?

America is kind like Byzantium and Europe is like the Western Roman Empire.
It is certainly going to last longer and be a factor in the world.


No im not from London. Why would you think that ?

[Warspite]

Keep in mind a woman needs to have 2 children just to maintain the population.

Is there too many people? Yes, but that's more due to people living longer, actually, last 100 years we went from 1.7b to 7, if that's your ROI that would be significantly different than what you've said. Aging is absolutely killing Europe/Japan, quite literally.

It's not about the total #s it's about the growth rate, the growth rate is half of what it was 50 years ago, and even that's thanks to Africa, Europe isn't growing at all, US is barely breaking even with help of immigration, immigration is saving a lot of developed countries in terms of replacement, what happens in terms of population when baby boomers die off? The overall world population is so large because of this compounding effect, but the growth rate is down, way down.

Europe and Japan are at zero population growth, China is very close to achieving it also.

Its staggering how bad the birth rate is in some European countries. France has a negative birth yet the avg Muslim immigrant in France has 8 children. Its said that in 30 yrs the French will be a minority in France. I don't understand Europeans. They don't read or work or have sex.

Some of my more educated friends don't care bout children, some of my less educated friends act like it's the most important thing they could do in life. I don't know. I'd probably end up having kids so I'm not lonely as an old man because I'm a bitch like that, but I don't see how me pro creating or not would have any impact on the world, about the same reason why i don't vote.

Probably how a lot of people feel, then you have these elections where literally like 5% vote (there's more elections than just presidential elections) but back in less educated times people actually died for this right.

I think the thinking man actually thinks that he's doing the world a service by not pro creating, and seeing the overall current high population numbers really suggests that we don't need any more people, but he's not counting in the fact that a lot of people feel this way, the actual population is getting older and everyone has an expiration date, and that each woman needs to have like 2.1 children just to maintain the current population.

It's not like with nukes where now we have too many and have to figure out how to get rid of them, all men die.

That sounds like another chapter in my thesis that education leads to stupidity. I know its more accurate to say that education leads many to change priorities/values but since those are contrary to wisdom and natural law I think its safe to conclude that its stupidity/foolishness. It never ceases to amaze me how as you go up in a company employees are more educated and less intelligent.

Ronald Reagan I think said it best "Its not that they are ignorant or unintelligent its that they know so much that isn't so."