Whaaat if top 3 picks are rigged?

[rumdiary]

TL;DR: If the lottery was rigged teams would not need to tank. But they do.

If you run with the idea that the lottery could be rigged, what's the most plausible explanation for how it's rigged?

The lottery itself (with the ping-pong balls etc.) is obviously meant to be random, but it's held in a locked room (correct me if I'm wrong?). That's the biggest cause for conspiracy in my opinion. If it was genuinely random we'd have the ping pong balls being selected live, for entertainment, and broadcasted to millions. That's what I do on my sim league.

If that's true, and correct me if it is not, then the most plausible explanation is that teams essentially auction off for which spots they get picked at, but that wouldn't cover it completely because then we'd see a lot more instances of teams implausibly jumping into the Top 3. Also there'd be no point in tanking, and it's obvious that teams definitely do tank.

So the most likely scenario would be one in which teams have to pay extra to rig a Top 3 pick for themselves if they're further down the lottery, thereby dissuading too many surprises in the Top 3.

For this reason - you have to look at any teams who would be willing to pay extra to jump into the Top 3.

A locked room with media and team representatives there. The balls are drawn in front of them, and they know who owns that combination based on the list they have. Surely, the media would have spilled the beans, because ..ummm.... that is what they are got at. You say it should be live for entertainment purposes, but the same could be said about the top 14 countdown. We love those as well. This thread has got progressively worse with these conspiracy theories.

Dude that's a really bad conspiracy theory you've got going on there. Paying to move up? Seriously?

[LordCovington33]

TL;DR: If the lottery was rigged teams would not need to tank. But they do.

If you run with the idea that the lottery could be rigged, what's the most plausible explanation for how it's rigged?

The lottery itself (with the ping-pong balls etc.) is obviously meant to be random, but it's held in a locked room (correct me if I'm wrong?). That's the biggest cause for conspiracy in my opinion. If it was genuinely random we'd have the ping pong balls being selected live, for entertainment, and broadcasted to millions. That's what I do on my sim league.

If that's true, and correct me if it is not, then the most plausible explanation is that teams essentially auction off for which spots they get picked at, but that wouldn't cover it completely because then we'd see a lot more instances of teams implausibly jumping into the Top 3. Also there'd be no point in tanking, and it's obvious that teams definitely do tank.

So the most likely scenario would be one in which teams have to pay extra to rig a Top 3 pick for themselves if they're further down the lottery, thereby dissuading too many surprises in the Top 3.

For this reason - you have to look at any teams who would be willing to pay extra to jump into the Top 3.

A locked room with media and team representatives there. The balls are drawn in front of them, and they know who owns that combination based on the list they have. Surely, the media would have spilled the beans, because ..ummm.... that is what they are got at. You say it should be live for entertainment purposes, but the same could be said about the top 14 countdown. We love those as well. This thread has got progressively worse with these conspiracy theories.

Dude that's a really bad conspiracy theory you've got going on there. Paying to move up? Seriously?

I never said anybody was paying to move up. That was your point, and I think you are now arguing against it.

[rumdiary]

A locked room with media and team representatives there. The balls are drawn in front of them, and they know who owns that combination based on the list they have. Surely, the media would have spilled the beans, because ..ummm.... that is what they are got at. You say it should be live for entertainment purposes, but the same could be said about the top 14 countdown. We love those as well. This thread has got progressively worse with these conspiracy theories.

Dude that's a really bad conspiracy theory you've got going on there. Paying to move up? Seriously?

I never said anybody was paying to move up. That was your point, and I think you are now arguing against it.

hehe nah, the reason I replied accusing YOU of that was because you were accusing ME of it. I wasn't actually being a conspiracy theorist I was just following a train of thought, so I thought I'd return the favour

[coolness]

TL;DR: If the lottery was rigged teams would not need to tank. But they do.

If you run with the idea that the lottery could be rigged, what's the most plausible explanation for how it's rigged?

The lottery itself (with the ping-pong balls etc.) is obviously meant to be random, but it's held in a locked room (correct me if I'm wrong?). That's the biggest cause for conspiracy in my opinion. If it was genuinely random we'd have the ping pong balls being selected live, for entertainment, and broadcasted to millions. That's what I do on my sim league.

If that's true, and correct me if it is not, then the most plausible explanation is that teams essentially auction off for which spots they get picked at, but that wouldn't cover it completely because then we'd see a lot more instances of teams implausibly jumping into the Top 3. Also there'd be no point in tanking, and it's obvious that teams definitely do tank.

So the most likely scenario would be one in which teams have to pay extra to rig a Top 3 pick for themselves if they're further down the lottery, thereby dissuading too many surprises in the Top 3.

For this reason - you have to look at any teams who would be willing to pay extra to jump into the Top 3.

That's heavy on teams paying for a lotto pick. A team wouldn't have to know they are getting helped. No team would have to know anything.

[OrlandoDream]

its not but if it was ... /OJ

Boston shouldn't win because it makes taking the soul of another franchise something people will try to do...and thats not nice yo.
The Lakers keep their pick; I think this so called shadow commissioner desperately wants Ball in LA...for better or for worse that is ratings gold.
New York has been in the news for bad things. Time for some good. They get Fultz.

The third spot will go to some smaller market to make it like the shadow commissioner cares about them. (not the Kings tho...because that would reward the Sixers for tanking and goes against the no soul stealling rule above...no bueno)..

So it will go

NY
LA
Orlando.


if it was rigged....

Yes please be rigged! Josh Jackson to Orlando is a dream come true.

On the serious note, you cant rig the lottery like you can rig games. Look up the videos on YT to see the process being carried out in front of a live audience. Its all luck people.

[Southpaw]

I honestly think Stern rigged the draft when it was in the league's best interest to do so (NYK to get Ewing, Rose to hometown Chicago, Blake to the Clippers to keep them relevant, Wall to Washington to prop up the market, Cleveland's run of #1's when Lebron left, NOP to seal the deal on the sale, etc).

Whenever there was a sure fire #1 pick that could change a franchise, he ended up going to a big market.

I am thinking that Silver is on the up and up...for now. Let's see if he pulls an Aakin Skywalker.

How about Tim Duncan going to small town San Antonio instead of beantown?

[Kembastockton]

If the lottery is rigged the entire NBA is. Why would they stop at just faking the funk on the lottery? They could make sure players and or teams have Shactinafool moments, and decide who wins games and who wins championships. I seriously doubt any of this is rigged. If it were it probably would have came out when that ref got caught gambling on games. Although I guess if all of this is fake they may have threatened to send their regards if he didn't keep his mouth shut. Conspiracy theories, exciting!

[TurboTitan]

pistons are moving stadiums so if it is rigged...

[Ruzious]

Well, PwC "accidentally" messed up at the Oscars, and Steve Harvery "oops'd" Miss Universe, so... but rigged is too strong a word. Besides, is this draft really worth rigging?

[Marty McFly]

If its rigged, it goes to the Knicks.

Imo it'll either be:
LAL
BOS
PHO

or

NYK
LAL
BOS

no it wouldn't. the league doesn't give a **** about big market teams.

[Westbreezy]

If PHX drops out of the top 3 and the Lakers keep their pick, i will continue to believe the lottery is rigged

I mean there's a 44% chance you guys drop out of the top 3 and a 47% chance the Lakers keep their pick.

Thats a 20.7% chance of both things happening, not statistically insignificant at all.

But I guarantee you it happens.

LMAO. Sorry man

[DaleyBlind]

I mean there's a 44% chance you guys drop out of the top 3 and a 47% chance the Lakers keep their pick.

Thats a 20.7% chance of both things happening, not statistically insignificant at all.

But I guarantee you it happens.

LMAO. Sorry man

BRB going to kill myself.

[johnx]

Confirmed. Its rigged

[jonjames]

lakers getting the #2 pick 3 straight years? Cavs winning lottery 3 out of 4 lottery? If you have slightest clue about that probabitly..you know it's rigged. Too much revenue at stake for the league o leave it up to random chance.

[Ruzious]

Confirmed. Its rigged

Yer Fultz of it. The NBA is not playing Ball with cheaters.

[mojo13]

lakers getting the #2 pick 3 straight years? Cavs winning lottery 3 out of 4 lottery? If you have slightest clue about that probabitly..you know it's rigged. Too much revenue at stake for the league o leave it up to random chance.

I'd hazard the guess that you are the one without much a clue about probabilities.

There are a couple issues here that drive this "NBA is rigged" conspiracy theory. First is that the human mind is naturally ill-equipped to easily comprehend chance and probabilities.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-our-brains-do-not-intuitively-grasp-probabilities/

Thanks to our confirmation bias, in which we look for and find confirmatory evidence for what we already believe and ignore or discount contradictory evidence, we will remember only those few astonishing coincidences and forget the vast sea of meaningless data.

And second the human brain is naturally predisposed to conspiracy theories:
https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/naturally-selected/201412/why-our-brains-are-hardwired-conspiracy-theories

Our brain is wired to look for order and patterns in the world and doesn't handle randomness and chance well (see above).
We are naturally attracted to conspiracy theories at is comforting to our minds to think there is a higher power that is in control and creating order, even if we don't like the order created (see human history and religion).

Look within...understand yourself, be mindful how you are programmed .... the NBA ain't rigged, the moon landing happened, global warming is real....

[coolness]

A much bolder rig than I would've rigged.

The fact that Sacramento "moves up" to the 5th pick after losing Cousins makes it riggier.

Boston, LAL, NOP would've been bolder, but would've screwed Sac.


My "where were you?" story is that I was at the bar and realized the lotto was over and right before I checked my phone for the results, my friend said, "it's probably Boston and LA" and then he started laughing..