Jalen Green - next elite prospect

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Re: Jalen Green - next elite prospect 

Post#381 » by Colbinii » Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:30 pm

QingJames wrote:
Big J wrote:
QingJames wrote:He isn’t great though. He’s not even good.

Other than dribble separation and explosive athleticism, can you tell me one above-average NBA skill that Jalen Green has? Don’t say scoring because even with this red hot streak he’s on, he’s shooting worse from 3 and the same from the field as he did his rookie year. His TS% is still the same awful 54% compared to a league average of 58%.

In fact, it speaks volumes about how truly awful Green is and has been as a player that even with his excellent shooting in the hot streak, he remains cumulatively one of the least efficient players in the league this season.



He’s averaging 28.5, 6, 4 & 1 on 50, 40, 80 shooting in March, and led his team to 10 straight wins. That’s not good?

Are we judging players on 10 game sample sizes and hot streaks now? Or by their body of work in the league?


10 game sample when it fits your agenda.

Body of work in the league when it fits your agenda.
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Re: Jalen Green - next elite prospect 

Post#382 » by JMAC3 » Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:36 pm

QingJames wrote:
Big J wrote:
QingJames wrote:He isn’t great though. He’s not even good.

Other than dribble separation and explosive athleticism, can you tell me one above-average NBA skill that Jalen Green has? Don’t say scoring because even with this red hot streak he’s on, he’s shooting worse from 3 and the same from the field as he did his rookie year. His TS% is still the same awful 54% compared to a league average of 58%.

In fact, it speaks volumes about how truly awful Green is and has been as a player that even with his excellent shooting in the hot streak, he remains cumulatively one of the least efficient players in the league this season.



He’s averaging 28.5, 6, 4 & 1 on 50, 40, 80 shooting in March, and led his team to 10 straight wins. That’s not good?

Are we judging players on 10 game sample sizes and hot streaks now? Or by their body of work in the league?


I think he is definitely on a hot streak, but the talent has always been there. He has the juice to put up 30 every single night and if you watched a 10 min clip you would think he was a top 50 guy in the league easily, not a 22 yr old that his team is ready to give up on.

In order for Houston to be good he was alwasy going to have to be one of their top 2 guys. Sengun isn't really a #1 and Jabari is nothing more than a solid starter. If Amen blows up then Houston is really setup nicely.
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Re: Jalen Green - next elite prospect 

Post#383 » by Big J » Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:37 pm

QingJames wrote:
Big J wrote:
QingJames wrote:He isn’t great though. He’s not even good.

Other than dribble separation and explosive athleticism, can you tell me one above-average NBA skill that Jalen Green has? Don’t say scoring because even with this red hot streak he’s on, he’s shooting worse from 3 and the same from the field as he did his rookie year. His TS% is still the same awful 54% compared to a league average of 58%.

In fact, it speaks volumes about how truly awful Green is and has been as a player that even with his excellent shooting in the hot streak, he remains cumulatively one of the least efficient players in the league this season.



He’s averaging 28.5, 6, 4 & 1 on 50, 40, 80 shooting in March, and led his team to 10 straight wins. That’s not good?

Are we judging players on 10 game sample sizes and hot streaks now? Or by their body of work in the league?


Those stats are based off of 13 games actually. Young guys can absolutely be judged more on what they have done recently because early years are when guys make the most gains.
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Re: Jalen Green - next elite prospect 

Post#384 » by QingJames » Thu Mar 28, 2024 3:03 pm

Big J wrote:
QingJames wrote:
Big J wrote:

He’s averaging 28.5, 6, 4 & 1 on 50, 40, 80 shooting in March, and led his team to 10 straight wins. That’s not good?

Are we judging players on 10 game sample sizes and hot streaks now? Or by their body of work in the league?


Those stats are based off of 13 games actually. Young guys can absolutely be judged more on what they have done recently because early years are when guys make the most gains.

Even with this hot streak he is shooting quite literally the same terrible percentages as his rookie year - which means in the first three quarters of the season, Green actually regressed compared to his first two years in the league. We putting any stock in that as it’s more recent? Or are we only valuing his past 13 games?

I’ll ask you again as well - what above-average NBA skills does Jalen Green have other than dribble separation and explosiveness? Is he a skilled playmaker? We know he’s not an efficient scorer. Is he a good rebounder? Great motion shooter? What does he do, exactly, that makes him a potential star in this league? He’s a bigger Cam Thomas, but the shine of the #2 overall pick hasn’t worn off for some, I guess.
eyeatoma wrote:You guys still dont' get it. Playoff accomplishment don't matter when you're up for your 1st MVP. When you're up for your 3rd in a row, damn straight it matters, as the only ones who done it are top 15 players of all time who have won rings.
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Re: Jalen Green - next elite prospect 

Post#385 » by QingJames » Thu Mar 28, 2024 3:04 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
QingJames wrote:
Big J wrote:

He’s averaging 28.5, 6, 4 & 1 on 50, 40, 80 shooting in March, and led his team to 10 straight wins. That’s not good?

Are we judging players on 10 game sample sizes and hot streaks now? Or by their body of work in the league?


I think he is definitely on a hot streak, but the talent has always been there. He has the juice to put up 30 every single night and if you watched a 10 min clip you would think he was a top 50 guy in the league easily, not a 22 yr old that his team is ready to give up on.

In order for Houston to be good he was alwasy going to have to be one of their top 2 guys. Sengun isn't really a #1 and Jabari is nothing more than a solid starter. If Amen blows up then Houston is really setup nicely.

No guy as abjectly terrible as Green is on defense can be considered a top 50 player. He’s one of the worst defenders in the league.
eyeatoma wrote:You guys still dont' get it. Playoff accomplishment don't matter when you're up for your 1st MVP. When you're up for your 3rd in a row, damn straight it matters, as the only ones who done it are top 15 players of all time who have won rings.
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Re: Jalen Green - next elite prospect 

Post#386 » by Big J » Thu Mar 28, 2024 3:19 pm

QingJames wrote:
Big J wrote:
QingJames wrote:Are we judging players on 10 game sample sizes and hot streaks now? Or by their body of work in the league?


Those stats are based off of 13 games actually. Young guys can absolutely be judged more on what they have done recently because early years are when guys make the most gains.

Even with this hot streak he is shooting quite literally the same terrible percentages as his rookie year - which means in the first three quarters of the season, Green actually regressed compared to his first two years in the league. We putting any stock in that as it’s more recent? Or are we only valuing his past 13 games?

I’ll ask you again as well - what above-average NBA skills does Jalen Green have other than dribble separation and explosiveness? Is he a skilled playmaker? We know he’s not an efficient scorer. Is he a good rebounder? Great motion shooter? What does he do, exactly, that makes him a potential star in this league? He’s a bigger Cam Thomas, but the shine of the #2 overall pick hasn’t worn off for some, I guess.



Cam Thomas isn’t in the same galaxy athletically as Jalen Green. Being able to score when the entire defense is focused on stopping you is an incredibly rare thing. You bend the D & make it easier for your teammates to score simply by drawing doubles. Can Thomas isn’t drawing doubles from anyone.
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Re: Jalen Green - next elite prospect 

Post#387 » by Shock Defeat » Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:50 pm

QingJames wrote:
Big J wrote:
QingJames wrote:Are we judging players on 10 game sample sizes and hot streaks now? Or by their body of work in the league?


Those stats are based off of 13 games actually. Young guys can absolutely be judged more on what they have done recently because early years are when guys make the most gains.

Even with this hot streak he is shooting quite literally the same terrible percentages as his rookie year - which means in the first three quarters of the season, Green actually regressed compared to his first two years in the league. We putting any stock in that as it’s more recent? Or are we only valuing his past 13 games?

I’ll ask you again as well - what above-average NBA skills does Jalen Green have other than dribble separation and explosiveness? Is he a skilled playmaker? We know he’s not an efficient scorer. Is he a good rebounder? Great motion shooter? What does he do, exactly, that makes him a potential star in this league? He’s a bigger Cam Thomas, but the shine of the #2 overall pick hasn’t worn off for some, I guess.

Has Cam Thomas ever led a team to 10 straight wins as the best player on that team?
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Re: Jalen Green - next elite prospect 

Post#388 » by Upperclass » Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:02 pm

He's always had the tools.. his issue was maturity and understanding how NBA basketball is played. Skillwise and athletically he's on par with any guard in the league.
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Re: Jalen Green - next elite prospect 

Post#389 » by K_chile22 » Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:43 pm

Think another thing that goes into the turnaround is Jalen is not like guys like Ant with unwaivering confidence that he's that guy and his confidence, especially in his shot, really really cratered this year. Now that he's making shots he'd doing Steph curry look away threes when earlier in the year he was shaking at the knees whenever he got an open three
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Re: Jalen Green - next elite prospect 

Post#390 » by QingJames » Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:54 am

Predictably, Green's hot streak has ended and he has been back to his old terrible self over the past seven games.

vs DAL - 5/15 with a -18 on the game
@ MIN - 10/22 with a -7 on the game
vs GSW - 4/12 with a -23 on the game
vs MIA - 6/18 with a -15 on the game
@ DAL - 6/15 with a -11 on the game
vs ORL - 6/17 with a +12 on the game
@ UTA - 1/7 with a -3 on the game

All told, Jalen has had an awful year, potentially his worst year since entering the league despite that hot streak. He's shot 42% from the field (42.6% in his rookie year), 33% from beyond the arc (34% in his rookie year), and 80% from the line (79% in his rookie year) but got the the line two times less per game than last season. His overall TS% is lower than his rookie year (54.1% vs 54.7%). Basically he is only able to convert efficiently when he gets to the rim where he is shooting 69% (which he can do thanks to his explosiveness), and is absolutely putrid at scoring beyond 3 feet from the basket.

His team remains 4 points better in the net +/- when he is off the court. He has improved marginally as a rebounder, but he has not improved in the aggregate as a playmaker or lead guard. He has improved slightly as a defender, but this is more a matter of leveraging his length than any improvement in his defensive awareness, which is terrible and why he remains one of the worst defenders in the league. His trajectory continues to remain Jordan Clarkson with hops, with a very slim outside chance at being Zach LaVine - a player who no team in the league apparently wants and doesn't contribute to winning, but can put up big scoring numbers on terrible teams.

It's pretty fair to evaluate a player after their third year in the league, especially if they actually show regression rather than improvement, like Jalen Green. He's a massive bust. There are 8 players drafted after him that are indisputably already better and more impactful than him (Mobley, Barnes, Suggs, Kuminga, Wagner, Sengun, Murphy, Jalen Johnson) and will likely remain so, and there are several more who I think will provide better impact on winning in the league than Green in the future, although the jury is still out
eyeatoma wrote:You guys still dont' get it. Playoff accomplishment don't matter when you're up for your 1st MVP. When you're up for your 3rd in a row, damn straight it matters, as the only ones who done it are top 15 players of all time who have won rings.
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Re: Jalen Green - next elite prospect 

Post#391 » by HadAnEffectHere » Fri Apr 12, 2024 12:23 pm

The Rockets upcoming offseason and following season is going to be really weird.

They've gotten a lot better, but few of their prospects have answered any questions about their games.

Jabari Smith is... fine?

But it's hard to see with their other guys.

Amen and Sengun just don't fit together at all so it's hard to justify extending Sengun or Green... Amen needs an extremely strong gravity center and I just don't think Sengun is that guy at all. I might see if the Spurs are willing to give a lot for Amen right now.

Their pick is top 10 protected next year, so I wonder if they think about tanking again if the Nets get Mitchell (the Rockets have a top 10 protected swap with the Thunder. However, they can then do an unprotected swap with the Nets right afterward. So they don't have to tank if the Nets suck again, but if the Nets become good...)
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Re: Jalen Green - next elite prospect 

Post#392 » by MotownMadness » Sat Apr 13, 2024 4:41 pm

He'll be alright
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Re: Jalen Green - next elite prospect 

Post#393 » by RyugaFan » Sat Apr 13, 2024 7:14 pm

QingJames wrote:
Big J wrote:
QingJames wrote:Are we judging players on 10 game sample sizes and hot streaks now? Or by their body of work in the league?


Those stats are based off of 13 games actually. Young guys can absolutely be judged more on what they have done recently because early years are when guys make the most gains.

Even with this hot streak he is shooting quite literally the same terrible percentages as his rookie year - which means in the first three quarters of the season, Green actually regressed compared to his first two years in the league. We putting any stock in that as it’s more recent? Or are we only valuing his past 13 games?

I’ll ask you again as well - what above-average NBA skills does Jalen Green have other than dribble separation and explosiveness? Is he a skilled playmaker? We know he’s not an efficient scorer. Is he a good rebounder? Great motion shooter? What does he do, exactly, that makes him a potential star in this league? He’s a bigger Cam Thomas, but the shine of the #2 overall pick hasn’t worn off for some, I guess.

Dribble seperation and explosiveness takes you a long way when your jumper's falling. He's probably never gonna be an elite player because like you said, defense and decision making is bad, but Zach Lavine became an all-star solely because his shooting was good and his first step was so explosive. Seeing as Jalen Green has more moves in his bag than Lavine ever did, he can be a legitimately unguardable scorer.
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Re: Jalen Green - next elite prospect 

Post#394 » by QingJames » Sun Apr 14, 2024 2:09 pm

RyugaFan wrote:
QingJames wrote:
Big J wrote:
Those stats are based off of 13 games actually. Young guys can absolutely be judged more on what they have done recently because early years are when guys make the most gains.

Even with this hot streak he is shooting quite literally the same terrible percentages as his rookie year - which means in the first three quarters of the season, Green actually regressed compared to his first two years in the league. We putting any stock in that as it’s more recent? Or are we only valuing his past 13 games?

I’ll ask you again as well - what above-average NBA skills does Jalen Green have other than dribble separation and explosiveness? Is he a skilled playmaker? We know he’s not an efficient scorer. Is he a good rebounder? Great motion shooter? What does he do, exactly, that makes him a potential star in this league? He’s a bigger Cam Thomas, but the shine of the #2 overall pick hasn’t worn off for some, I guess.

Dribble seperation and explosiveness takes you a long way when your jumper's falling. He's probably never gonna be an elite player because like you said, defense and decision making is bad, but Zach Lavine became an all-star solely because his shooting was good and his first step was so explosive. Seeing as Jalen Green has more moves in his bag than Lavine ever did, he can be a legitimately unguardable scorer.

Why was LaVine pursued by 0 teams at the trade deadline?

It’s the same reason Green will be unmovable when he gets a max, too.

These type of players can drag your team to play-in mediocrity, but they don’t impact winning at a high level. Even beyond that, I don’t ever see Green shooting 50% from the field the way Zach did in his all star year.
eyeatoma wrote:You guys still dont' get it. Playoff accomplishment don't matter when you're up for your 1st MVP. When you're up for your 3rd in a row, damn straight it matters, as the only ones who done it are top 15 players of all time who have won rings.

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