EvanZ wrote:NO-KG-AI wrote:Sengun was the best basketball player of this draft class prior to the NBA and now he’s the best basketball player in the NBA from this class. Sometimes we(myself included) can just flat out overthink prospects.
Potential is so subjective.
This is extreme hindsight bias. You wouldn't be saying this if Sengun turned out to be a bust. Was Steph Curry the best player in his draft class prior to the NBA? I don't know. That's why we have a draft. A bunch of teams obviously didn't think so. Was Giannis the best player in his draft class prior to the NBA? Well, maybe he was! Again, that's why we have drafts.
Was Luka the best player? Absolutely. Was he the first pick? Nope. That's why we have drafts.
I think when one teenager stands out in terms of strength of competition and overall production, we can probably take it as a good indicator. Luka was another good example.
It’s not to say someone can’t fill out and surpass Sengun, but it was asinine then that he dropped that far.
Jalen Green was my #1 guy in this draft btw. But I think my point was that maybe we shouldn’t be so shocked when prodigies that are already good at basketball end up way better than the guys that have potential and mediocre production. Drafting 19 year olds that produce like Luka and Sengun but have lower perceived ceilings probably works better long term than projecting all the raw projects and hoping they develop like Giannis.
Steph is a guy I definitely missed on as well. I thought he would be a solid 6th man microwave guy, but looking back, he probably was the best non NBA guy in the world already. I think trying to project someone to be the biggest outlier of all time at the most difficult shots in basketball made a lot of people miss.