Amen & Ausar Thompson - Potential 2022 NBA Draft Guys

[JMAC3]

If Ausar was shooting 36% from 3 he would have a case that he is on the same level as Wemby and Chet. He went 5th, is struggling with the thing everyone expected him to struggle with. Why are we acting like he is doomed?

He is 78% defender, flashing as a finisher, passer, rebounder...

Now if he was shooting 15% from 3, looked awful on defense, didn't look athletic then yeah I would be worried.

[HadAnEffectHere]

If Ausar was shooting 36% from 3 he would have a case that he is on the same level as Wemby and Chet. He went 5th, is struggling with the thing everyone expected him to struggle with. Why are we acting like he is doomed?

He is 78% defender, flashing as a finisher, passer, rebounder...

Now if he was shooting 15% from 3, looked awful on defense, didn't look athletic then yeah I would be worried.

Probably because shooting is most of what matters in the NBA and he's easily the worst shooter in the NBA relative to his position.

[The-Power]

This is kind of a silly discussion. The twins shot around 30% from 3 last season. Do we really need to list all the guys who shot 30% or worse from 3 in their pre-draft year and ended up being decent shooters in the NBA?

No, you do not need to because I don't care much about OTE numbers, for one, and because the argument was that it was common for players to dramatically improve while in the NBA. Hence, your list is completely besides the point and indeed not needed.

[Hal14]

This is kind of a silly discussion. The twins shot around 30% from 3 last season. Do we really need to list all the guys who shot 30% or worse from 3 in their pre-draft year and ended up being decent shooters in the NBA?

No, you do not need to because I don't care much about OTE numbers, for one, and because the argument was that it was common for players to dramatically improve while in the NBA. Hence, your list is completely besides the point and indeed not needed.

Huh?

You don't care about his OTE numbers? It was a pro league he played in. It was their pre-draft season.

How is it not helpful to list players who shot 30% or worse during their pre-draft season who went on to improve their shooting so dramatically that they became passable shooters (or elite players) in the NBA?

You just don't like it because it disproves your agenda.

[The-Power]

This is kind of a silly discussion. The twins shot around 30% from 3 last season. Do we really need to list all the guys who shot 30% or worse from 3 in their pre-draft year and ended up being decent shooters in the NBA?

No, you do not need to because I don't care much about OTE numbers, for one, and because the argument was that it was common for players to dramatically improve while in the NBA. Hence, your list is completely besides the point and indeed not needed.

Huh?

You don't care about his OTE numbers? It was a pro league he played in. It was their pre-draft season.

How is it not helpful to list players who shot 30% or worse during their pre-draft season who went on to improve their shooting so dramatically that they became passable shooters (or elite players) in the NBA?

You just don't like it because it disproves your agenda.

We have no point of reference for OTE performances and how things such as shooting may translate, that's why. But we've had this discussion before and it won't amount to anything, so I'll stop right there. Feel free to have the last word if you need it.

As for the ‘not helpful’ part: it's simply besides the point. The topic was about shooting improvement during players' NBA careers. You interjected with what happened before the draft. You're free to bring up whatever you want but that doesn't make it any more pertinent to the topic. It's simply a different discussion to have.

And lastly, please just stop with the silly insinuations of some agenda whenever someone doesn't agree with you. I've written many times that people overstate how easy and common it is for players to improve as shooters. It's one of the bigger draft myths. And I've done that consistently and way before the twins came onto the scene. Heck, my response in this thread did not even refer to the twins and was merely a response to what I consider to be an incorrect sentiment.

[Hal14]

No, you do not need to because I don't care much about OTE numbers, for one, and because the argument was that it was common for players to dramatically improve while in the NBA. Hence, your list is completely besides the point and indeed not needed.

Huh?

You don't care about his OTE numbers? It was a pro league he played in. It was their pre-draft season.

How is it not helpful to list players who shot 30% or worse during their pre-draft season who went on to improve their shooting so dramatically that they became passable shooters (or elite players) in the NBA?

You just don't like it because it disproves your agenda.

We have no point of reference for OTE performances and how things such as shooting may translate, that's why. But we've had this discussion before and it won't amount to anything, so I'll stop right there. Feel free to have the last word if you need it.

As for the ‘not helpful’ part: it's simply besides the point. The topic was about shooting improvement during players' NBA careers. You interjected with what happened before the draft. You're free to bring up whatever you want but that doesn't make it any more pertinent to the topic. It's simply a different discussion to have.

But the twins have only played like 30 games in the NBA. That's not enough to give us a baseline for for us to judge their shooting ability at the NBA level.

If you look at all the players in NBA history, I'm sure most of them shoot poorly from 3 during the first 20 or 30 games of their rookie season. They're still adjusting to the NBA game, adjusting to the speed of the game, the spacing, the physicality, learning their team's systems and schemes. Figuring out where on the floor their shots will come from, adjusting to the NBA 3 pt line which is further away than what they're used to, etc.

That's why I figured it would be more relevant to look at pre-draft numbers.

Lastly, there's no reason to not use OTE shooting numbers. It's a pro league. They shoot from the college 3 pt line. The twins played against some really good players in that league:

Alex Sarr (projected no. 1 pick in 2024 draft)
Rob Dillingham (projected no. 7 pick in 2024 draft)
Somto Cyril (committed to Kentucky, a rim protecting force)
Izan Almansa (could go 1st round in 2024 draft)
Tyler Smith (could go lottery in 2024 draft)
Kanaan Carlyle (making a significant impact as a freshman at Stanford, is draft eligible in 2023)
Jazian Gortman (on a 2-way with the Bucks)
Bryce Griggs (was draft eligible in 2023)
Bryson Warren (good perimeter defender, is draft eligible in 2024)
Jaylen Martin (good wing defender, was draft eligible in 2023)
Naasir Cunningham (could go lottery in 2025)
TJ Clark (good perimeter defender, was draft eligible in 2023)
Johned Walker (good perimeter defender, was draft eligible in 2023)
Bryson Tiller (could end up being better than all of these guys long term)

The spacing was bad for the City Reapers. So if anything, the Twins would have shot a higher % from 3 if they played in a different league last season.

[JMAC3]

I agree shooting is a longterm concern with both of these guys if they are going to be all-star, good play off type players.

but they are too good at other things for that to keep them off the floor. They are both too good at getting to the rim. Ausar is shooting 37% of his fga inside 3 feet, Amen 30%. They are not built to have to depend on 3s at this stage in their careers.

They can play defense, pass, rebound, put pressure on the rim... plus they have great size so it is pretty easy to play them in multiple lineups where you can find shooting around them. Ausar could probably be playing mins at the 4 if Monty wasn't sleepwalking his way to bank every Friday. His rebounding and rim protection are plenty good for him to be stealing 15+ mins there in small ball lineups.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Name any current useful role players in the NBA who are 6'7" or shorter and can't shoot.

[Hal14]

Name any current useful role players in the NBA who are 6'7" or shorter and can't shoot.

What a strange question to ask when I just posted a list of like a million players (lol) on the last page of this thread who started off as poor shooters and ended up as decent shooters / elite NBA players.

These are some good players who are 6'7" are shorter and are not very good shooters from 3:

Jimmy Butler
Demar Derozan
Alex Caruso (for most of his career was a non-shooter)
Marcus Smart
Patrick Beverley
TJ McConnell
Tyus Jones (not a good shooter for most of his career)
Ja Morant (for the most part in the NBA was a poor shooter)
Rajon Rondo (for pretty much his whole career, he couldn't shoot)
Derrick Rose (won MVP without a 3 pt shot)
John Wall
Josh Giddey (came into the league as a terrible shooter)
Scottie Barnes (came into the league as a terrible shooter)
Ben Simmons
Russell Westbrook (won MVP without a 3 pt shot)
Josh Okogie
Andrew Nembhard
Herb Jones
Jose Alvarado
Kris Dunn
Andre Jackson Jr
Davion Mitchell
Tre Jones
Jordan Clarkson (poor 3 pt shooter for most of his career)
Dejounte Murray (for most of his career hasn't been a good 3 pt shooter)
Derrick White (for most of his career was not a good 3 pt shooter)
Kyle Lowry (for a good chunk of his career wasn't a good 3 pt shooter)
Jalen Suggs
Anthony Black
Markelle Fultz
Lamar Stevens (good role player in Cleveland without any 3 pt shooting)
Oshae Brissett (good role player in Indiana and also now coming along nicely in Boston, despite being pretty much a non-shooter)
Cole Anthony (for most of his career has been a poor 3 pt shooter)
Ayo Dosunmo (has been a poor 3 pt shooter for most of his career)
Jevon Carter (not much of a 3 pt shooter)
Kelly Oubre (has had some seasons with really low 3 FG% but was still a solid role player)
Grant Williams (good role player for Boston as a rookie, helping them to ECF, despite very low 3 FG%..he's only 6'6")
I could go on..this is just off the top of my head..

[Colbinii]

Name any current useful role players in the NBA who are 6'7" or shorter and can't shoot.

Herb Jones was useful at 33% the past 2 seasons. He fixed everything by going from a 33% Corner 3 to a 43% Corner 3 this year, which makes him go from a 33% shooter to a 38% 3P Shooter.

But yeah, you need to either be able to shoot or be an elite rim protector [Jarrett Allen/Nic Claxton/Rudy Gobert] to be useful in the modern game.

[Duke4life831]

Stud athletes, stud defenders, smart players and already very good finishers around the rim. We are also halfway through their rookie season, so definitely too early to write death notes on their potential.

With that said, I do think if by the end of the season these guys are still sub 70% from the line and sub 25% from 3. I do think we would be getting into questionable territory when it comes to their shooting. How many guys have started their careers sub 70% from the line and sub 25% from 3 and turned out to not even be good shooters, but solid shooters where their shooting wasnt a massive negative?

Im sure there are a few examples (I think Kidd is one off the top of my head), but I think we would be at the point of hoping for rare shooting progression. And I do think that kind of shooting can be the difference between being solid role players and all star level.

[Colbinii]

Stud athletes, stud defenders, smart players and already very good finishers around the rim. We are also halfway through their rookie season, so definitely too early to write death notes on their potential.

With that said, I do think if by the end of the season these guys are still sub 70% from the line and sub 25% from 3. I do think we would be getting into questionable territory when it comes to their shooting. How many guys have started their careers sub 70% from the line and sub 25% from 3 and turned out to not even be good shooters, but solid shooters where their shooting wasnt a massive negative?

Im sure there are a few examples (I think Kidd is one off the top of my head), but I think we would be at the point of hoping for rare shooting progression. And I do think that kind of shooting can be the difference between being solid role players and all star level.

Lonzo Ball

[Duke4life831]

Stud athletes, stud defenders, smart players and already very good finishers around the rim. We are also halfway through their rookie season, so definitely too early to write death notes on their potential.

With that said, I do think if by the end of the season these guys are still sub 70% from the line and sub 25% from 3. I do think we would be getting into questionable territory when it comes to their shooting. How many guys have started their careers sub 70% from the line and sub 25% from 3 and turned out to not even be good shooters, but solid shooters where their shooting wasnt a massive negative?

Im sure there are a few examples (I think Kidd is one off the top of my head), but I think we would be at the point of hoping for rare shooting progression. And I do think that kind of shooting can be the difference between being solid role players and all star level.

Lonzo Ball

My pushback to this would be, Lonzo was an elite 3pt shooter in high school and college. So he had a history of being a really good shooter. And as a rookie he was still at 30% from 3 (not sub 25%).

But with all that said, ya I think this is a good example as well. 45% from the line and 30% from 3 as a rookie were really bad numbers.

[Colbinii]

Stud athletes, stud defenders, smart players and already very good finishers around the rim. We are also halfway through their rookie season, so definitely too early to write death notes on their potential.

With that said, I do think if by the end of the season these guys are still sub 70% from the line and sub 25% from 3. I do think we would be getting into questionable territory when it comes to their shooting. How many guys have started their careers sub 70% from the line and sub 25% from 3 and turned out to not even be good shooters, but solid shooters where their shooting wasnt a massive negative?

Im sure there are a few examples (I think Kidd is one off the top of my head), but I think we would be at the point of hoping for rare shooting progression. And I do think that kind of shooting can be the difference between being solid role players and all star level.

Lonzo Ball

My pushback to this would be, Lonzo was an elite 3pt shooter in high school and college. So he had a history of being a really good shooter. And as a rookie he was still at 30% from 3 (not sub 25%).

But with all that said, ya I think this is a good example as well. 45% from the line and 30% from 3 as a rookie were really bad numbers.

Lonzo is also the archetype I see for Amen and Ausar.

[JMAC3]

Lonzo Ball

My pushback to this would be, Lonzo was an elite 3pt shooter in high school and college. So he had a history of being a really good shooter. And as a rookie he was still at 30% from 3 (not sub 25%).

But with all that said, ya I think this is a good example as well. 45% from the line and 30% from 3 as a rookie were really bad numbers.

Lonzo is also the archetype I see for Amen and Ausar.

What? Lonzo has shot nearly 60% of fga from 3 and nowhere near the level of quick twitch athlete Thompsons are.
Their ability to absorb contact and finish at and above the rim is special, that will be their game. I think it is more likely they become guys who live at the rim, ft line and just put constant pressure on rim ala SGA- obviously not saying they are top 10 player but that is how i see them offensively. As far as shooting goes Shai lives in the sub 20% of FGA are threes, I think that is a more realistic shot profile for Amen especially.

[Colbinii]

My pushback to this would be, Lonzo was an elite 3pt shooter in high school and college. So he had a history of being a really good shooter. And as a rookie he was still at 30% from 3 (not sub 25%).

But with all that said, ya I think this is a good example as well. 45% from the line and 30% from 3 as a rookie were really bad numbers.

Lonzo is also the archetype I see for Amen and Ausar.

What? Lonzo has shot nearly 60% of fga from 3 and nowhere near the level of quick twitch athlete Thompsons are.
Their ability to absorb contact and finish at and above the rim is special, that will be their game. I think it is more likely they become guys who live at the rim, ft line and just put constant pressure on rim ala SGA- obviously not saying they are top 10 player but that is how i see them offensively. As far as shooting goes Shai lives in the sub 20% of FGA are threes, I think that is a more realistic shot profile for Amen especially.

Archetype.

Non-Helio ball-handler who is an excellent team defender.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Ausar and Amen are the worst shooters in NBA history relative to their position and era.

You have to play them at center on offense, there's no hope here at all.

Way too much whistling past the graveyard from NBA Draft people about how incredibly hard it will be to have these guys fit on any team. How many teams need a rim running SF because they have a pure stretch 5 next to them?

[ItsDanger]

What needs to happen for these 2 teams is adjust to your skills. Multiple screens, more movement and teamwork can compensate.

Defending in NBA is too basic if you just have 5 out or drive and kick for 3s.

15% from 3, player shouldn't be shooting at all. They need to get to 30%.

[JMAC3]

Ausar and Amen are the worst shooters in NBA history relative to their position and era.

You have to play them at center on offense, there's no hope here at all.

Way too much whistling past the graveyard from NBA Draft people about how incredibly hard it will be to have these guys fit on any team. How many teams need a rim running SF because they have a pure stretch 5 next to them?

Amen Thompson is shooting 51.9 efg% and Ausar is at 49.2%. Neither great, but far from being awful.

Ausar is 92% def epm, 84% among all players in rebound rate.
Amen is 85% def epm, 87% in rebound rate, 71% in assist rate.

Both are already above 50% epm as players as awful shooters as rookies. Trying to say there is no hope for them is a wild take.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Ausar and Amen are the worst shooters in NBA history relative to their position and era.

You have to play them at center on offense, there's no hope here at all.

Way too much whistling past the graveyard from NBA Draft people about how incredibly hard it will be to have these guys fit on any team. How many teams need a rim running SF because they have a pure stretch 5 next to them?

Amen Thompson is shooting 51.9 efg% and Ausar is at 49.2%. Neither great, but far from being awful.

Ausar is 92% def epm, 84% among all players in rebound rate.
Amen is 85% def epm, 87% in rebound rate, 71% in assist rate.

Both are already above 50% epm as players as awful shooters as rookies. Trying to say there is no hope for them is a wild take.

...................................................................

That's because their shots are dunks.

Which is fine at center and offensive suffocation at literally any other position.