Amen & Ausar Thompson - Potential 2022 NBA Draft Guys

[MemphisX]

I try to give these young guys at least a full off-season working with NBA coaches before getting worried let alone writing them off. It is odd that any basketball player can get to this level and either have trouble shooting or have issues dribbling. These are literally the first things you do when you first pick up the game as a boy. You have to try really hard not to put in the work necessary to improve in these areas.

I think having such an extreme athleticism advantage can stunt some of that. Usually it is just the shooting because they can get to the rack any time they want at lower levels. It is why I don't fault guys with athleticism advantages that are poor shooters (Conley, Fox, Lowry). And also why I am more skeptical of guys without athletic advantages that are already skilled up.

My issue with the Thompson twins was they were not poor shooters, they seemed to be dysfunctionally poor shooters. Same thing with Ryan Dunn. However, unlike Dunn, the Thompson's seem to have more confidence in shooting shots, so maybe they can become functional shooters for NBA purposes.

It feels like NBA Draft people are growing increasingly disconnected from the NBA itself to try to project guys they like into NBA roles that don't exist anymore.

I am not sure what the problem is with this concept. Even watching Ja who is a special player, he has to have a certain level of shooting or it becomes an issue. For guys who are not going to be lead ballhandlers, this becomes a HUGE problem, especially in playoff settings.

[K_chile22]

Amen at least has made big progress on the pull up middies to keep defenses honest, thing that would hold him back more than the 3 imo is the handle, needs to get better, because if he's not a PG then the 3 ball becomes way more important, but if he is the ball has gravity and he can eat up space when defenses go under with his athleticism

[JMAC3]

I am still betting on these kids, they are just such special athletes and I think the shooting eventually gets good enough. They are going to be special special defenders especially if they are mediocre offensive players to stay on the floor.

[DOT]

So like

Bargain bin Ben Simmons.

[JMAC3]

So like

Bargain bin Ben Simmons.

Ben Simmons is a 3x allstar, if he wasn't mentally weak he could play like Giannis but he is soft and has a bad work ethic.

Amen and Ausar want to steal the ball from you dunk on you and then clap in your face, Ben Simmons wants to someone to knock him to the ground so he can spend 4 months rehabbing his back.

[DOT]

So like

Bargain bin Ben Simmons.

Ben Simmons is a 3x allstar

Exactly

Bargain bin Ben Simmons.

[EvanZ]

I try to give these young guys at least a full off-season working with NBA coaches before getting worried let alone writing them off. It is odd that any basketball player can get to this level and either have trouble shooting or have issues dribbling. These are literally the first things you do when you first pick up the game as a boy. You have to try really hard not to put in the work necessary to improve in these areas.

Keep in mind the Thompson twins aren't *that* young compared to the rest of their class. They turn 21 in 2 weeks.

[HadAnEffectHere]

The Thompsons seem really smart and hard working.

Which makes me even more confident that they're never learning how to shoot because they know how serious this problem is and have tried hard to fix it and simply failed for years straight.

[Hal14]

So like

Bargain bin Ben Simmons.

Which twin are you talking about? We really need to stop lumping them together like they're the same exact player.

That's a dead giveaway that you have barely seen them play.

[Hal14]

The Thompsons seem really smart and hard working.

Which makes me even more confident that they're never learning how to shoot because they know how serious this problem is and have tried hard to fix it and simply failed for years straight.

*sigh*. They were able to succeed before based on just the combination of their size + athleticism + defense + ball handling/driving ability + passing so there was not as much of a need to work on their shooting.

Both of them (especially Ausar) improved their shooting quite a bit last season with OTE.

This was Ausar's 3 pt shooting progression last season:
Overseas trip in the fall: (4.5%), 3.7 attempts per game
Preseason (11%), 3 attempts per game
Reg season: (30%), 3.8 attempts per game
Playoffs: (39%), 7.8 attempts per game
Last 4 Playoff games (44.1%), 8.5 attempts per game
*Hit game-winning 3 to clinch the league championship

Al Horford is hard working and smart, right? He didn't shoot at all until he was 29 yrs old, in his 9th season and then became one of the best shooters in the league. But yeah, let's completely write off the Twins less than halfway through their rookie season

[DOT]

So like

Bargain bin Ben Simmons.

Which twin are you talking about? We really need to stop lumping them together like they're the same exact player.

That's a dead giveaway that you have barely seen them play.

Well, the comment before mine was the one talking about them both at once, and I was making a joke about how the player he was describing was essentially a worse version of Ben Simmons

I think any difference at this point is splitting hairs, both are point forwards with great athleticism and potential on defense but who are potentially the worst shooting wings in the NBA right now

Amen has more emphasis on the point in point forward, Ausar the forward in point forward. They've always been the mystery box of the draft class, and it's way too soon to actually evaluate them.

[mattao313]

Asuar jumper is really bad I have real questions if it'll ever be passable.

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[HadAnEffectHere]

The Thompsons seem really smart and hard working.

Which makes me even more confident that they're never learning how to shoot because they know how serious this problem is and have tried hard to fix it and simply failed for years straight.

*sigh*. They were able to succeed before based on just the combination of their size + athleticism + defense + ball handling/driving ability + passing so there was not as much of a need to work on their shooting.

Both of them (especially Ausar) improved their shooting quite a bit last season with OTE.

This was Ausar's 3 pt shooting progression last season:
Overseas trip in the fall: (4.5%), 3.7 attempts per game
Preseason (11%), 3 attempts per game
Reg season: (30%), 3.8 attempts per game
Playoffs: (39%), 7.8 attempts per game
Last 4 Playoff games (44.1%), 8.5 attempts per game
*Hit game-winning 3 to clinch the league championship

Al Horford is hard working and smart, right? He didn't shoot at all until he was 29 yrs old, in his 9th season and then became one of the best shooters in the league. But yeah, let's completely write off the Twins less than halfway through their rookie season

Horford was a big man who grew up in an era where no one shot threes and almost no big men took jumpshots in general. The NBA meta has been completely dominated by shooting for almost a decade now.

[mattao313]

The Thompsons seem really smart and hard working.

Which makes me even more confident that they're never learning how to shoot because they know how serious this problem is and have tried hard to fix it and simply failed for years straight.

*sigh*. They were able to succeed before based on just the combination of their size + athleticism + defense + ball handling/driving ability + passing so there was not as much of a need to work on their shooting.

Both of them (especially Ausar) improved their shooting quite a bit last season with OTE.

This was Ausar's 3 pt shooting progression last season:
Overseas trip in the fall: (4.5%), 3.7 attempts per game
Preseason (11%), 3 attempts per game
Reg season: (30%), 3.8 attempts per game
Playoffs: (39%), 7.8 attempts per game
Last 4 Playoff games (44.1%), 8.5 attempts per game
*Hit game-winning 3 to clinch the league championship

Al Horford is hard working and smart, right? He didn't shoot at all until he was 29 yrs old, in his 9th season and then became one of the best shooters in the league. But yeah, let's completely write off the Twins less than halfway through their rookie season

Horford was a big man who grew up in an era where no one shot threes and almost no big men took jumpshots in general. The NBA meta has been completely dominated by shooting for almost a decade now.

Horford was also a really good midrange shooter same with brook Lopez if Ausar isn't shooting a 8 foot jumper it's most that likely a brick.

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[Hal14]

The Thompsons seem really smart and hard working.

Which makes me even more confident that they're never learning how to shoot because they know how serious this problem is and have tried hard to fix it and simply failed for years straight.

*sigh*. They were able to succeed before based on just the combination of their size + athleticism + defense + ball handling/driving ability + passing so there was not as much of a need to work on their shooting.

Both of them (especially Ausar) improved their shooting quite a bit last season with OTE.

This was Ausar's 3 pt shooting progression last season:
Overseas trip in the fall: (4.5%), 3.7 attempts per game
Preseason (11%), 3 attempts per game
Reg season: (30%), 3.8 attempts per game
Playoffs: (39%), 7.8 attempts per game
Last 4 Playoff games (44.1%), 8.5 attempts per game
*Hit game-winning 3 to clinch the league championship

Al Horford is hard working and smart, right? He didn't shoot at all until he was 29 yrs old, in his 9th season and then became one of the best shooters in the league. But yeah, let's completely write off the Twins less than halfway through their rookie season

Horford was a big man who grew up in an era where no one shot threes and almost no big men took jumpshots in general. The NBA meta has been completely dominated by shooting for almost a decade now.

That's besides the point. The point is non-shooter became a shooter at age 29. So it's ridiculous for people to claim that a 20 year old kid can't improve his shooting.

For crying out loud, Scottie Barnes couldn't shoot for sh*t. People thought he would never be able to shoot prior to him being drafted and look at him now.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Yeah, my point is that it's really hard to have faith in two players improving a skill when they've worked so hard at it and gotten no results whatsoever to the point of being the worst at the skill possible. It makes me think there's some unsolvable hand-eye coordination problem or something.

Ausar is 9/67 from three and most of his misses aren't close.

[The-Power]

As far as your assessment that they've already trained their shot, that could be said of most players, yet it's common to see dramatic improvements once they get to the NBA, so that already refutes your assumption.

Could you provide a list of current players which have had dramatic improvements once they got to the NBA? If it's so common, it shouldn't be hard and perhaps we could add some more context to the claim. And I'm not talking about improving a couple percentage points from 3, improving on tiny samples from one year to the next or adding a spot-up 3pt shot after being solid in the midrange already – dramatic improvements to me implies something much more fundamental. And I hold that it's way less common than draft people tend to believe and contend.

[eminence]

As far as your assessment that they've already trained their shot, that could be said of most players, yet it's common to see dramatic improvements once they get to the NBA, so that already refutes your assumption.

Could you provide a list of current players which have had dramatic improvements once they got to the NBA? If it's so common, it shouldn't be hard and perhaps we could add some more context to the claim. And I'm not talking about improving a couple percentage points from 3, improving on tiny samples from one year to the next or adding a spot-up 3pt shot after being solid in the midrange already – dramatic improvements to me implies something much more fundamental. And I hold that it's way less common than draft people tend to believe and contend.

Kawhi is the dream outcome (not counting bigs who'd never shot out there before but have adapted to the new NBA). But I agree it's quite rare (and potentially becoming more so with the increased focus on shooting at earlier levels).

Going much further back, for the Jazz Karl Malone slowly turned himself into a good shooter, though not out to 3 point range. So I always think of him when the conversation is had.

[The-Power]

As far as your assessment that they've already trained their shot, that could be said of most players, yet it's common to see dramatic improvements once they get to the NBA, so that already refutes your assumption.

Could you provide a list of current players which have had dramatic improvements once they got to the NBA? If it's so common, it shouldn't be hard and perhaps we could add some more context to the claim. And I'm not talking about improving a couple percentage points from 3, improving on tiny samples from one year to the next or adding a spot-up 3pt shot after being solid in the midrange already – dramatic improvements to me implies something much more fundamental. And I hold that it's way less common than draft people tend to believe and contend.

Kawhi is the dream outcome (not counting bigs who'd never shot out there before but have adapted to the new NBA). But I agree it's quite rare (and potentially becoming more so with the increased focus on shooting at earlier levels).

Going much further back, for the Jazz Karl Malone slowly turned himself into a good shooter, though not out to 3 point range. So I always think of him when the conversation is had.

Kawhi is a good mention and saw a big improvement. But even his improvement in terms of efficiency mostly came from college to the NBA. In the NBA he was an efficient 3pt shooter from pretty much day one, albeit on low volume. He worked on consistency and enhanced his volume, in part because he added a pull-up shot to his repertoire which may qualify him for the ‘dramatic improvement’ label.

[Hal14]

Could you provide a list of current players which have had dramatic improvements once they got to the NBA? If it's so common, it shouldn't be hard and perhaps we could add some more context to the claim. And I'm not talking about improving a couple percentage points from 3, improving on tiny samples from one year to the next or adding a spot-up 3pt shot after being solid in the midrange already – dramatic improvements to me implies something much more fundamental. And I hold that it's way less common than draft people tend to believe and contend.

Kawhi is the dream outcome (not counting bigs who'd never shot out there before but have adapted to the new NBA). But I agree it's quite rare (and potentially becoming more so with the increased focus on shooting at earlier levels).

Going much further back, for the Jazz Karl Malone slowly turned himself into a good shooter, though not out to 3 point range. So I always think of him when the conversation is had.

Kawhi is a good mention and saw a big improvement. But even his improvement in terms of efficiency mostly came from college to the NBA. In the NBA he was an efficient 3pt shooter from pretty much day one, albeit on low volume. He worked on consistency and enhanced his volume, in part because he added a pull-up shot to his repertoire which may qualify him for the ‘dramatic improvement’ label.

This is kind of a silly discussion. The twins shot around 30% from 3 last season. Do we really need to list all the guys who shot 30% or worse from 3 in their pre-draft year and ended up being decent shooters in the NBA? Cause it's a long freaking list lol.

All of these guys end up being respectable shooters in the NBA:
Anthony Edwards shot 29% from 3 in college
Jaylen Brown shot 30% from 3 in college
Tyrese Maxey shot 29% from 3 in college
Kawhi 29%
Scottie Barnes 27%
Jimmy Butler 38% but on basically zero volume - way less volume than the twins
Middleton 26% from 3 as a junior in college
Caleb Martin 30% as a freshman in college
Caruso 26% as a freshman in college
Bruce Brown 26% his last year of college
Morant 30% as a freshman
De'Aaron Fox 24% in college
Kuzma 30% career shooter from 3 in 3 college seasons
Giddey 29% from 3 in his pre-draft year
Lamelo 27% from 3 in his pre-draft year
Lu Dort 30% from 3 in college
Jrue Holiday 30% from 3 in college
Baron Davis 30% from 3 as a freshman
Rajon Rondo 27% from 3 as a sophomore, and then shot the lights out in the bubble
Alec Burks 29% from 3 as a sophomore
Reggie Bullock 29% from 3 as a freshman
Isaiah Thomas 29% from 3 as a freshman
Jeff Green 27% from 3 as a rookie..and that was after playing 3 seasons of college ball
David Roddy 19% from 3 as a freshman to 43% as a junior
Kobe Brown 25% as a freshman, 20% as a sophomore to 45% as a senior

Should I go on?

Ok. All these guys either shot 30% or worse during their pre-draft year or they shot such low volume that their 3 FG% doesn't matter:
Grant Williams
Kelly Olynyk
Anthony Davis
Mike Muscala
Marc Gasol
Jusuf Nurkic
Brook Lopez
Al Horford
Jonas Valanciunas
John Collins

Agbaji shot 30% as a freshman, and then 40% as a senior.

Jordan Walsh shot 27% as a freshman, and 36% so far in the G League.

I mean, the average 3 FG% for all the guys in the 2023 draft class was 31% last season. The twins were around 30%. They weren't even that bad of shooters. Especially considering the volume they were shooting (especially Ausar) and the steady improvement in their 3 FG% that both of them (especially Ausar) showed throughout the course of last season.

Then there's also guards/wings who never really became very good shooters in the NBA but still ended up being very good NBA players:
Jimmy Butler
Demar Derozan
Marcus Smart
Westbrook
John Wall
Derrick Rose