Jabari Smith Jr. - Auburn

[K_chile22]

You just called Lauri a 5th-7th man in the other thread at time of Mitchell trade. He was a better player then Jabari has shown. yet you are over here arguing Jabari is so valuable.

he was 24, not 20, scoring 1 more PPG playing with all stars on a slightly better TS and waaaay worse defense and rebounding. The thing is you keep comparing Jabari right now to guys way further down the devlopment curve and saying Jabari is what he is while ignoring none of those players were as good as Jabari when they were 20 years old. idk why I'm still bothering with this

Lauri at age 20 was scoring 15.2 ppg, his 2nd season he averaged 18.7 ppg.

Compared to Jabari 12.8 and 13.5 his first two years.
You don't even feel confident Jabari will score 16 ppg in year 3.

So yes Markkanen was the better player 2 years into his career by a good margin.

Wow and if my math checks out on this then Jalen Green is better than both!

[JMAC3]

he was 24, not 20, scoring 1 more PPG playing with all stars on a slightly better TS and waaaay worse defense and rebounding. The thing is you keep comparing Jabari right now to guys way further down the devlopment curve and saying Jabari is what he is while ignoring none of those players were as good as Jabari when they were 20 years old. idk why I'm still bothering with this

Lauri at age 20 was scoring 15.2 ppg, his 2nd season he averaged 18.7 ppg.

Compared to Jabari 12.8 and 13.5 his first two years.
You don't even feel confident Jabari will score 16 ppg in year 3.

So yes Markkanen was the better player 2 years into his career by a good margin.

Wow and if my math checks out on this then Jalen Green is better than both!

Yes, please try to strawman the argument lol

[clyde21]

rebounding last 4 games

16
13
17
16

a lot of people would disregard this but these are freak rebounding numbers for a 20 yr old and will only get stronger as his body fills out

[Colbinii]

rebounding last 4 games

16
13
17
16

a lot of people would disregard this but these are freak rebounding numbers for a 20 yr old and will only get stronger as his body fills out

It's better than that. It's 11.3 Rebounds per game over the past 10 games. He is currently sitting at 6.8 OREB% and 22.3 DREB%. He currently ranks 38th in OREB% and 31st in DREB% in the entire NBA. Seems like a strong data point for a skinny bean Wing whose primary defensive value comes from switch-ability.

Rashard Lewis is a career 5.0 OREB% and 13.9 DREB%.

Remember he is younger than Brandon Miller and Amen Thompson

[JMAC3]

Jabari rebounding % 6.8% offensive 22.5% defensive
Amen rebounding % 9.9% offensive 20.9% defensive
Ausar rebounding % 9.4% offensive 20% defensive

[Colbinii]

Jabari rebounding % 6.8% offensive 22.5% defensive
Amen rebounding % 9.9% offensive 20.9% defensive
Ausar rebounding % 9.4% offensive 20% defensive

So Amen and Ausar can't shoot, right?

So when you have a player who can't shoot, you want to utilize them offensively which means more cutting and more crashing the glass.

If you watch how Detroit [Don't watch them, actually] and Houston [They are a fun watch], Amen crashes the glass consistently because he doesn't shoot and he can leverage his size against smaller wings/guards.

Jabari Smith Jr, on the other hand, is taking 43.5% 3PaR, meaning his value offensively is coming from his floor spacing. The fact a player can have a 43.5% 3PaR and still have 6.8% OREB% is incredible for a player--especially of his age.

There are two players with an OREB% higher than Jabari Smith JR AND Higher 3PAR: Lauri Markkanen and Saddiq Bey

[JMAC3]

Jabari rebounding % 6.8% offensive 22.5% defensive
Amen rebounding % 9.9% offensive 20.9% defensive
Ausar rebounding % 9.4% offensive 20% defensive

So Amen and Ausar can't shoot, right?

So when you have a player who can't shoot, you want to utilize them offensively which means more cutting and more crashing the glass.

If you watch how Detroit [Don't watch them, actually] and Houston [They are a fun watch], Amen crashes the glass consistently because he doesn't shoot and he can leverage his size against smaller wings/guards.

Jabari Smith Jr, on the other hand, is taking 43.5% 3PaR, meaning his value offensively is coming from his floor spacing. The fact a player can have a 43.5% 3PaR and still have 6.8% OREB% is incredible for a player--especially of his age.

There are two players with an OREB% higher than Jabari Smith JR AND Higher 3PAR: Lauri Markkanen and Saddiq Bey

It is crazy how many people are still gaslighting a 13 ppg scorer because they had him high on their pre-draft boards lol.

[Colbinii]

Jabari rebounding % 6.8% offensive 22.5% defensive
Amen rebounding % 9.9% offensive 20.9% defensive
Ausar rebounding % 9.4% offensive 20% defensive

So Amen and Ausar can't shoot, right?

So when you have a player who can't shoot, you want to utilize them offensively which means more cutting and more crashing the glass.

If you watch how Detroit [Don't watch them, actually] and Houston [They are a fun watch], Amen crashes the glass consistently because he doesn't shoot and he can leverage his size against smaller wings/guards.

Jabari Smith Jr, on the other hand, is taking 43.5% 3PaR, meaning his value offensively is coming from his floor spacing. The fact a player can have a 43.5% 3PaR and still have 6.8% OREB% is incredible for a player--especially of his age.

There are two players with an OREB% higher than Jabari Smith JR AND Higher 3PAR: Lauri Markkanen and Saddiq Bey

It is crazy how many people are still gaslighting a 13 ppg scorer because they had him high on their pre-draft boards lol.

What do you mean?

I think Jabari Smith Jr has been good in the NBA and I didn't have him super high on my 2022 Draft Board.

It is almost like people can be rational and objective and appreciate prospects they were or weren't high on

There is also a lot more to basketball than PPG. DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine aren't franchise cornerstone's while guys like Draymond Green and Steve Nash were.

[JMAC3]

So Amen and Ausar can't shoot, right?

So when you have a player who can't shoot, you want to utilize them offensively which means more cutting and more crashing the glass.

If you watch how Detroit [Don't watch them, actually] and Houston [They are a fun watch], Amen crashes the glass consistently because he doesn't shoot and he can leverage his size against smaller wings/guards.

Jabari Smith Jr, on the other hand, is taking 43.5% 3PaR, meaning his value offensively is coming from his floor spacing. The fact a player can have a 43.5% 3PaR and still have 6.8% OREB% is incredible for a player--especially of his age.

There are two players with an OREB% higher than Jabari Smith JR AND Higher 3PAR: Lauri Markkanen and Saddiq Bey

It is crazy how many people are still gaslighting a 13 ppg scorer because they had him high on their pre-draft boards lol.

What do you mean?

I think Jabari Smith Jr has been good in the NBA and I didn't have him super high on my 2022 Draft Board.

It is almost like people can be rational and objective and appreciate prospects they were or weren't high on

There is also a lot more to basketball than PPG. DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine aren't franchise cornerstone's while guys like Draymond Green and Steve Nash were.

So Jabari is a future cornerstone like Green and Nash? got it lol. Great example.

[K_chile22]

It is crazy how many people are still gaslighting a 13 ppg scorer because they had him high on their pre-draft boards lol.

What do you mean?

I think Jabari Smith Jr has been good in the NBA and I didn't have him super high on my 2022 Draft Board.

It is almost like people can be rational and objective and appreciate prospects they were or weren't high on

There is also a lot more to basketball than PPG. DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine aren't franchise cornerstone's while guys like Draymond Green and Steve Nash were.

So Jabari is a future cornerstone like Green and Nash? got it lol. Great example.

This is the person who said I was pulling a straw man when I was poking fun at his PPGz logic

[Colbinii]

It is crazy how many people are still gaslighting a 13 ppg scorer because they had him high on their pre-draft boards lol.

What do you mean?

I think Jabari Smith Jr has been good in the NBA and I didn't have him super high on my 2022 Draft Board.

It is almost like people can be rational and objective and appreciate prospects they were or weren't high on

There is also a lot more to basketball than PPG. DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine aren't franchise cornerstone's while guys like Draymond Green and Steve Nash were.

So Jabari is a future cornerstone like Green and Nash? got it lol. Great example.

That isn't what I said. I said that players can be cornerstone's without averaging a lot of PPG.

[JMAC3]

What do you mean?

I think Jabari Smith Jr has been good in the NBA and I didn't have him super high on my 2022 Draft Board.

It is almost like people can be rational and objective and appreciate prospects they were or weren't high on

There is also a lot more to basketball than PPG. DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine aren't franchise cornerstone's while guys like Draymond Green and Steve Nash were.

So Jabari is a future cornerstone like Green and Nash? got it lol. Great example.

That isn't what I said. I said that players can be cornerstone's without averaging a lot of PPG.

I agree, but what has Jabari shown that makes him worth even mentioning with those guys?
He has one of the worst on/off ratings on the Rockets at -4.5
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2024.html

I already showed he is very average on Def EPM, Below Avg playmaker for his position, below average scorer for his position.

So yes, I agree you can be an awesome defender, playmaker etc without scoring. No debate from me there. But that isn't Jabari so it is kind of a pointless example in this scenario. Whereas with Thompson twins they are more like a Draymond type because they are already flashing elite defensive upside and both are above average playmakers for their size.

This isn't even me saying he sucks or isn't worth starting spot on some teams, but is that really all we want/expect from him at this point to be considered a succcess? If he is Cam Johnson are we supposed to not be disappointed in him as the #3 pick?

[Colbinii]

So Jabari is a future cornerstone like Green and Nash? got it lol. Great example.

That isn't what I said. I said that players can be cornerstone's without averaging a lot of PPG.

I agree, but what has Jabari shown that makes him worth even mentioning with those guys?
He has one of the worst on/off ratings on the Rockets at -4.5
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2024.html

I already showed he is very average on Def EPM, Below Avg playmaker for his position, below average scorer for his position.

So yes, I agree you can be an awesome defender, playmaker etc without scoring. No debate from me there. But that isn't Jabari so it is kind of a pointless example in this scenario. Whereas with Thompson twins they are more like a Draymond type because they are already flashing elite defensive upside and both are above average playmakers for their size.

This isn't even me saying he sucks or isn't worth starting spot on some teams, but is that really all we want/expect from him at this point to be considered a succcess? If he is Cam Johnson are we supposed to not be disappointed in him as the #3 pick?

Dude--he is 20 years old. You can't just look at impact data and draw conclusions about 20 year olds...

Yeah, Cameron Johnson would be a poor outcome, but that's a terrible comparison.

1) Jabari Smith Jr moves much more fluid than Cameron Johnson. He is much more spry, quicker, better lateral movement, and a more explosive leaper/jumper. Really their physical profiles aren't comparable in any way, shape, or form.

This alone allows Jabari Smith Jr to reach higher levels of impact due to his defensive versatility.

2) Rebounding

Jabari Smith Jr is proving to be a Top Non-Center rebounder in the NBA. He is doing it on both ends of the court [Offensive and Defensive], while Cameron Johnson's career high numbers [4.3 OREB%/14.0 DREB%] are far below current Jabari Smith Jr.

3) Age

Hello? Cameron Johnson was 23-24 during his rookie season. Jabari Smith Jr is 20-21 during his 2nd season. Jabari Smith Jr will be 23-24 during his 5th season

[K_chile22]

That isn't what I said. I said that players can be cornerstone's without averaging a lot of PPG.

I agree, but what has Jabari shown that makes him worth even mentioning with those guys?
He has one of the worst on/off ratings on the Rockets at -4.5
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2024.html

I already showed he is very average on Def EPM, Below Avg playmaker for his position, below average scorer for his position.

So yes, I agree you can be an awesome defender, playmaker etc without scoring. No debate from me there. But that isn't Jabari so it is kind of a pointless example in this scenario. Whereas with Thompson twins they are more like a Draymond type because they are already flashing elite defensive upside and both are above average playmakers for their size.

This isn't even me saying he sucks or isn't worth starting spot on some teams, but is that really all we want/expect from him at this point to be considered a succcess? If he is Cam Johnson are we supposed to not be disappointed in him as the #3 pick?

Dude--he is 20 years old. You can't just look at impact data and draw conclusions about 20 year olds...

Yeah he is intentionally ignoring that players typically get significantly better between age 20 and their prime.

He tried arguing it's unreasonable for Jabari to get to Mikal Bridges level if I'm not positive he'll score 16 a game next year in his age 21 3rd NBA season.
Meanwhile Bridges himself was in college his age 21 season and scored 13.5 ppg in his third season at age 24. It's just a pointless argument at this point

[JMAC3]

I agree, but what has Jabari shown that makes him worth even mentioning with those guys?
He has one of the worst on/off ratings on the Rockets at -4.5
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2024.html

I already showed he is very average on Def EPM, Below Avg playmaker for his position, below average scorer for his position.

So yes, I agree you can be an awesome defender, playmaker etc without scoring. No debate from me there. But that isn't Jabari so it is kind of a pointless example in this scenario. Whereas with Thompson twins they are more like a Draymond type because they are already flashing elite defensive upside and both are above average playmakers for their size.

This isn't even me saying he sucks or isn't worth starting spot on some teams, but is that really all we want/expect from him at this point to be considered a succcess? If he is Cam Johnson are we supposed to not be disappointed in him as the #3 pick?

Dude--he is 20 years old. You can't just look at impact data and draw conclusions about 20 year olds...

Yeah he is intentionally ignoring that players typically get significantly better between age 20 and their prime.

He tried arguing it's unreasonable for Jabari to get to Mikal Bridges level if I'm not positive he'll score 16 a game next year in his age 21 3rd NBA season.
Meanwhile Bridges himself was in college his age 21 season and scored 13.5 ppg in his third season at age 24. It's just a pointless argument at this point

I get it, but at what point do we stop caring about age? Guess what he will still be younger than Miller and Paolo next year too... and the year after and the year after... It is not like he isn't getting opportunity.

Paolo had 29-9-6 last night on 10/16 shooting led his team to win.
Jabari had 11-16 last night on 3/11 shooting was part of the loss.

Do we really think the reason is Jabari is 6 months younger and that is why Paolo is better and Jabari will be better, but it is just the age difference?

[JMAC3]

Dude--he is 20 years old. You can't just look at impact data and draw conclusions about 20 year olds...

Yeah, Cameron Johnson would be a poor outcome, but that's a terrible comparison.

1) Jabari Smith Jr moves much more fluid than Cameron Johnson. He is much more spry, quicker, better lateral movement, and a more explosive leaper/jumper. Really their physical profiles aren't comparable in any way, shape, or form.

This alone allows Jabari Smith Jr to reach higher levels of impact due to his defensive versatility.

2) Rebounding

Jabari Smith Jr is proving to be a Top Non-Center rebounder in the NBA. He is doing it on both ends of the court [Offensive and Defensive], while Cameron Johnson's career high numbers [4.3 OREB%/14.0 DREB%] are far below current Jabari Smith Jr.

3) Age

Hello? Cameron Johnson was 23-24 during his rookie season. Jabari Smith Jr is 20-21 during his 2nd season. Jabari Smith Jr will be 23-24 during his 5th season

Okay so you hate the Cam Johnson comp, who had 29 pts on 7/11 from 3 last night.

Who do you expect him to be as good as in 2-3 years? Who is his long-term similar impact guy in the NBA?

Give me some names of guys he will be better than.

[clyde21]

I agree, but what has Jabari shown that makes him worth even mentioning with those guys?
He has one of the worst on/off ratings on the Rockets at -4.5
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2024.html

I already showed he is very average on Def EPM, Below Avg playmaker for his position, below average scorer for his position.

So yes, I agree you can be an awesome defender, playmaker etc without scoring. No debate from me there. But that isn't Jabari so it is kind of a pointless example in this scenario. Whereas with Thompson twins they are more like a Draymond type because they are already flashing elite defensive upside and both are above average playmakers for their size.

This isn't even me saying he sucks or isn't worth starting spot on some teams, but is that really all we want/expect from him at this point to be considered a succcess? If he is Cam Johnson are we supposed to not be disappointed in him as the #3 pick?

Dude--he is 20 years old. You can't just look at impact data and draw conclusions about 20 year olds...

Yeah he is intentionally ignoring that players typically get significantly better between age 20 and their prime.

He tried arguing it's unreasonable for Jabari to get to Mikal Bridges level if I'm not positive he'll score 16 a game next year in his age 21 3rd NBA season.
Meanwhile Bridges himself was in college his age 21 season and scored 13.5 ppg in his third season at age 24. It's just a pointless argument at this point

there is a reason why he gets ignored by everyone here I should do that again

[JMAC3]

Dude--he is 20 years old. You can't just look at impact data and draw conclusions about 20 year olds...

Yeah he is intentionally ignoring that players typically get significantly better between age 20 and their prime.

He tried arguing it's unreasonable for Jabari to get to Mikal Bridges level if I'm not positive he'll score 16 a game next year in his age 21 3rd NBA season.
Meanwhile Bridges himself was in college his age 21 season and scored 13.5 ppg in his third season at age 24. It's just a pointless argument at this point

there is a reason why he gets ignored by everyone here I should do that again

Feel free to chime in boss. Who in 2-3 years do you expect Jabari to be as good as or better than?

[clyde21]

Yeah he is intentionally ignoring that players typically get significantly better between age 20 and their prime.

He tried arguing it's unreasonable for Jabari to get to Mikal Bridges level if I'm not positive he'll score 16 a game next year in his age 21 3rd NBA season.
Meanwhile Bridges himself was in college his age 21 season and scored 13.5 ppg in his third season at age 24. It's just a pointless argument at this point

there is a reason why he gets ignored by everyone here I should do that again

Feel free to chime in boss. Who in 2-3 years do you expect Jabari to be as good as or better than?

I already said that Jabari is the Rockets best prospect moving forward other than MAYBE Alpy but that's a wait and see.

[Colbinii]

Dude--he is 20 years old. You can't just look at impact data and draw conclusions about 20 year olds...

Yeah, Cameron Johnson would be a poor outcome, but that's a terrible comparison.

1) Jabari Smith Jr moves much more fluid than Cameron Johnson. He is much more spry, quicker, better lateral movement, and a more explosive leaper/jumper. Really their physical profiles aren't comparable in any way, shape, or form.

This alone allows Jabari Smith Jr to reach higher levels of impact due to his defensive versatility.

2) Rebounding

Jabari Smith Jr is proving to be a Top Non-Center rebounder in the NBA. He is doing it on both ends of the court [Offensive and Defensive], while Cameron Johnson's career high numbers [4.3 OREB%/14.0 DREB%] are far below current Jabari Smith Jr.

3) Age

Hello? Cameron Johnson was 23-24 during his rookie season. Jabari Smith Jr is 20-21 during his 2nd season. Jabari Smith Jr will be 23-24 during his 5th season

Okay so you hate the Cam Johnson comp, who had 29 pts on 7/11 from 3 last night.

Who do you expect him to be as good as in 2-3 years? Who is his long-term similar impact guy in the NBA?

Give me some names of guys he will be better than.

Someone who Jabari Smith Jr could be as good as?

To start, I don't put expectations on players. I assess prospects the same way I assess young NBA players, by asking what they do well, what they do poorly, where they can realistically improve and how they can further impact a game in the NBA.

I'll give you an example: I thought Jaden McDaniels had some ridiculously high-end outcomes after his 2nd season [Think Kawhi-Leonard lite]. I never expected Jaden to get to that level, but I could see ways where he blossomed like a flower and reached every 99% outcome. Since then, I don't think those high-end outcomes are possible given his growth/improvement curve. As for my expectations for him as a player? I don't know, I would like to think a Mikal Bridges-type is in the wheel house, but I don't expect him to get to that level but I also wouldn't be surprised if in 2024-2025 Jaden McDaniels was given a larger offensive role and all of the metrics lined up with Mikal Bridges from 2022 [That was his real breakout year, DPOY2, ect].

So, circling back to Jabari Smith Jr, what I am doing in pointing out his Rebounding is pointing to a data point. That data point says "Wow, this player is really freaking good at this important basketball trait, and the trait specifically goes against what I saw as his skill-set when he entered the NBA". That's good, right? Like, a player who projects to do a lot of + impact things on a court does something else impactful that you didn't even think he would. That makes me change how I feel about a player moving forward, because they are doing positive things on a court I didn't previously project or assess.

This isn't me trying to defend Jabari Smith Jr or compare him to Paolo Banchero. It is me simply looking at a prospect and seeing him do more than I thought he would, which in turn allows me to change my assessment of him as a player. I have no qualms or issues changing my assessment on a player as they spend time in the NBA as they add more skills or show a lack of another skill holding them back. I don't need to latch onto a prospect and play the game of "Look at me, I am so smart!" or tell other people "I told you Player X would suck, IDIOT!".

To answer your question in multiple answers.

Higher-end outcome for pure impact and similar role as Jabari Smith Jr: Modern-Day Shawn Marion

A good offensive player who is more of a play finisher than play initiator. Exceptional defender who can guard multiple positions, fill in at the 5-spot for stretches, defend the best wings in the NBA and help of the offensive/defensive glass.

Marion had a 7-year Prime as an Ironman, missing just 12 games in those 7 years, posting 4.3 BPM, .180 WS/48 and had multiple uber-efficient scoring seasons [Two seasons > +100 TS+] and was a Top 15-ish player for a couple years [Top 15 in MVP twice].

Medium-end outcome for pure impact and similar role as Jabari Smith Jr: Rashard Lewis

Versatile big who pops offensively and is underrated defensively. Switchable, excellent player in high-level defensive schemes and can play small-ball 5. Good offensive player who can get hot and win a playoff game with his shot. Utilizes his spacing and shooting to attack off the closeout, High-level starter.

Low-end outcome for pure impact and similar role as Jabari Smith Jr: Clifford Robinson

Stretch Big who flirts with making All-Defensive teams and/or makes a couple. Very good starter, squeaks in as an All-star in a potential weaker season, weaker DPOY candidate. Offensively, he is a key cog in the machine but not a huge needle mover but can play multiple positions and is extremely portable in terms of fit [5-out, can be the big man down low against smaller line-ups, ect].