Donovan Clingan

Colbinii · Post #21 » by **Colbinii** » Tue Mar 19, 2024 4:24 am

JMAC3 wrote:
The-Power wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:Feels like he is basically going to give you Zubac type of career which is tough to stomach anywhere inside the top 10 IMO.

If you think he's bound to be Zubac 2.0 then he's a pretty easy top 10 pick. Zubac is at worst a top 12 player from his draft. If you're confident you'll get a player like him then that's surely worth a top 10 pick in a weak draft with a lottery crapshoot. (For the record, I don't see him having a Zubac-like career as a given and therefore don't have him as a top 10 pick).

I think his most likely outcome is Zubac, but just like any player in the 7-14 range he has a 20% chance to be a bust. Typically in that range you also have a 15% or so to pick an Allstar, I just don't see that potential with Clingan.

Are these numbers backed by you analyzing all the drafts?

JMAC3 · Post #22 » by **JMAC3** » Tue Mar 19, 2024 2:00 pm

Colbinii wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
The-Power wrote:If you think he's bound to be Zubac 2.0 then he's a pretty easy top 10 pick. Zubac is at worst a top 12 player from his draft. If you're confident you'll get a player like him then that's surely worth a top 10 pick in a weak draft with a lottery crapshoot. (For the record, I don't see him having a Zubac-like career as a given and therefore don't have him as a top 10 pick).

I think his most likely outcome is Zubac, but just like any player in the 7-14 range he has a 20% chance to be a bust. Typically in that range you also have a 15% or so to pick an Allstar, I just don't see that potential with Clingan.

Are these numbers backed by you analyzing all the drafts?

Yes those are based on my database of the last 25 yrs of drafts

Colbinii · Post #23 » by **Colbinii** » Tue Mar 19, 2024 2:09 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
I think his most likely outcome is Zubac, but just like any player in the 7-14 range he has a 20% chance to be a bust. Typically in that range you also have a 15% or so to pick an Allstar, I just don't see that potential with Clingan.

Are these numbers backed by you analyzing all the drafts?

Yes those are based on my database of the last 25 yrs of drafts

How do you define Bust?

Do you consider Jalen Smith a bust?

JMAC3 · Post #24 » by **JMAC3** » Tue Mar 19, 2024 2:17 pm

Colbinii wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
Are these numbers backed by you analyzing all the drafts?

Yes those are based on my database of the last 25 yrs of drafts

How do you define Bust?

Do you consider Jalen Smith a bust?

Jalen Smith is a rotation player according to the database.

Bust= anyone who plays less than 5 years in the NBA or under 700 mins per NBA season on avg for career.

Colbinii · Post #25 » by **Colbinii** » Tue Mar 19, 2024 2:31 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
Yes those are based on my database of the last 25 yrs of drafts

How do you define Bust?

Do you consider Jalen Smith a bust?

Jalen Smith is a rotation player according to the database.

Bust= anyone who plays less than 5 years in the NBA or under 700 mins per NBA season on avg for career.

I see, but a team who drafts a player and decides to not pick up their 4th year option isn't a bust.

JMAC3 · Post #26 » by **JMAC3** » Tue Mar 19, 2024 2:40 pm

Colbinii wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
How do you define Bust?

Do you consider Jalen Smith a bust?

Jalen Smith is a rotation player according to the database.

Bust= anyone who plays less than 5 years in the NBA or under 700 mins per NBA season on avg for career.

I see, but a team who drafts a player and decides to not pick up their 4th year option isn't a bust.

The database is player focused, not the team that drafted them.
So in this case the player meets the rotation player metrics, this was a clear mistake by the team.

ItsDanger · Post #27 » by **ItsDanger** » Tue Mar 19, 2024 5:28 pm

He's mobile enough to make an immediate impact, a potentially better version of Mitch Robinson style wise. Not high on his offensive upside and the foot injuries are concerning. Will be interesting to see who takes him around mid 1st.

GoBobs · Post #28 » by **GoBobs** » Tue Mar 19, 2024 6:23 pm

HadAnEffectHere wrote:I wish he had lost a bunch of weight this year.

His mobility just isn't good enough and his post scoring doesn't make up for it.

We'll see what he looks like once he gets down to 245.

Also don't think any NBA player is viable at under 60% FT% at this point and maybe not at less than 65% FT% so he needs to improve there.

Problem is he already gets pushed around a lot due to his high center of gravity. A lot of plays it looks like his lower half is being pushed out from under him.

It is hard to tell what he is going to be until he fills out more. Watch a full game and count how many times he moves another player with a box out vs how many times he gets moved.

The-Power · Post #29 » by **The-Power** » Tue Mar 19, 2024 7:12 pm

GoBobs wrote:Problem is he already gets pushed around a lot due to his high center of gravity.

This is a good point. His high center of gravity has impacted his game (as a finisher and post-defender) and is something to consider going forward.

esvl · Post #30 » by **esvl** » Thu Mar 21, 2024 2:22 pm

The-Power wrote:
GoBobs wrote:Problem is he already gets pushed around a lot due to his high center of gravity.

This is a good point. His high center of gravity has impacted his game (as a finisher and post-defender) and is something to consider going forward.

It sounds like a red flag to me.

King Ken · Post #31 » by **King Ken** » Thu Mar 21, 2024 4:51 pm

The-Power wrote:
GoBobs wrote:Problem is he already gets pushed around a lot due to his high center of gravity.

This is a good point. His high center of gravity has impacted his game (as a finisher and post-defender) and is something to consider going forward.

Clingan essentially is a clearly better offensive prospect than Kessler but he has flaws that limit him on D compared to Kessler. He's not strong like Edey and that limits him offensively. So he's likely to be a better offensive player than Kessler but Edey is superior on offense. Where as Kessler will be superior on D but Clingan is better than Edey on D.

Like Trae, Luka, and James are the Hardens, these might as well be the Kesslers.

The Moose · Post #32 » by **The Moose** » Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:41 pm

Read on Twitter

XTC · Post #33 » by **XTC** » Mon Mar 25, 2024 10:05 pm

I really like the kid. He makes fantastic rotations on defense, his defensive IQ is really high, he has fantastic timing, and I really like his passing and ability to be a hub at the next level.

I think he tops out at a level similiar to Steven Adams, and if he ever learns to shoot I see tons of Marc Gasol and Brook Lopez in his game. I'm super high on the kid.

BlazersBroncos · Post #34 » by **BlazersBroncos** » Mon Mar 25, 2024 10:43 pm

He is a pretty incredible defensive presence - I dont think its insane to say he may have a Gobert like ceiling on defense if all the cards fall in order.

That being said - I am super wary of bigs with foot injuries and Donovan is having them REALLY young.

___Rand___ · Post #35 » by **___Rand___** » Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:04 pm

Great for college not made for NBA.

Upperclass · Post #36 » by **Upperclass** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 1:10 am

Typical, 7ft non-athletic C and seems to have a below avg wingspan despite reports..He'll still get drafted R1 due to the awful talent in this draft

tester551 · Post #37 » by **tester551** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 5:10 am

BlazersBroncos wrote:He is a pretty incredible defensive presence - I dont think its insane to say he may have a Gobert like ceiling on defense if all the cards fall in order.

That being said - I am super wary of bigs with foot injuries and Donovan is having them REALLY young.

Really?
I don't see that at all.
I could possibly see a Hartstein level of impact. Maybe Zubac.

Cant see Gobert at all

Colbinii · Post #38 » by **Colbinii** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 12:55 pm

BlazersBroncos wrote:He is a pretty incredible defensive presence - I dont think its insane to say he may have a Gobert like ceiling on defense if all the cards fall in order.

That being said - I am super wary of bigs with foot injuries and Donovan is having them REALLY young.

Gobert defensive ceiling is a near GOAT level defender and generational defensive talent.

BlazersBroncos · Post #39 » by **BlazersBroncos** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:26 pm

Ok - maybe Gobert level defender is a bridge too far. At the same time I see his defensive impact as above such guys as Poeltl, Zubac, etc.

https://www.ctinsider.com/sports/uconn-mens-basketball/article/donovan-clingan-huskies-defense-march-madness-19362208.php

There are a ton of metrics that show Clingan is an absurdly impactful defender. I dont know if he can play in the last minutes of a playoff game but I do know that outside that smallish window he is very, very likely to be a tremendously positive defender.

Colbinii · Post #40 » by **Colbinii** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:13 pm

BlazersBroncos wrote:Ok - maybe Gobert level defender is a bridge too far. At the same time I see his defensive impact as above such guys as Poeltl, Zubac, etc.

https://www.ctinsider.com/sports/uconn-mens-basketball/article/donovan-clingan-huskies-defense-march-madness-19362208.php

There are a ton of metrics that show Clingan is an absurdly impactful defender. I dont know if he can play in the last minutes of a playoff game but I do know that outside that smallish window he is very, very likely to be a tremendously positive defender.

Mobility is key for these Centers. Rudy Gobert is 10x as agile as Clingan, and that is saying a lot when Gobert has a false-narrative around him getting exposed in the post-season.

Players like Poeltl and Zubac seem like a low-end outcome for Clingan, but I don't know if he can get up to Kessler/Claxton/Nurkic levels. I think Nurkic is a good comparison defensively as he is one of the slowest centers defensively, but his offensive game is leagues ahead of Clingan, and Nurkic is like a Top 20-ish Center.