Nikola Topic

[JMAC3]

Is he out for rest of season or what?

Could really come down to workouts for him.

Only like 2 weeks left in the Euroleague season I believe. I am not sure if they will bring him back but initially he was out 4-6 weeks back in January.

[JMAC3]

that said the long range shooting is a huge red flag. at the same time, he's only 18. maybe he's good enough with the exception of the shooting at such a young age, you give him a mulligan and trust that he will become a respectable 3pt shooter.

He is knockdown, like 90% from the free throw line. I am not as worried about the shooting after seeing that.

[BlazersBroncos]

Looking at the current top FT guys only Clarkson and Poole are poor 3PT shooters. Its a decent bet that Topic develops a shot when looking at the historic 3PT% of elite FT shooters.

I am more worried about the footspeed on defense, and whether his craftiness overcomes lack of burst when getting to the rim. Think the latter issue is likely to be nothing, but the defense should be an issue IMO.

[JMAC3]

Looking at the current top FT guys only Clarkson and Poole are poor 3PT shooters. Its a decent bet that Topic develops a shot when looking at the historic 3PT% of elite FT shooters.

I am more worried about the footspeed on defense, and whether his craftiness overcomes lack of burst when getting to the rim. Think the latter issue is likely to be nothing, but the defense should be an issue IMO.

He reminds me of LaMelo on defense. Has good size and length which helps him get steals but has a weaker frame.

He is listed at 6-7 and some places have him with a 7 foot wingspan, which is doubted but even if his wingspan is neutral he still is a bigger guard which eventually should help him as he gets stronger into his career.

[G R E Y]

that said the long range shooting is a huge red flag. at the same time, he's only 18. maybe he's good enough with the exception of the shooting at such a young age, you give him a mulligan and trust that he will become a respectable 3pt shooter.

He is knockdown, like 90% from the free throw line. I am not as worried about the shooting after seeing that.

I used to rely on this correlation a lot more before Tre Jones kept up his FTs but has largely struggled with 3s throughout his NBA career.

Perhaps he's just an outlier, but it does give me slight pause. Still, Topic is very young and improving...

[JMAC3]

that said the long range shooting is a huge red flag. at the same time, he's only 18. maybe he's good enough with the exception of the shooting at such a young age, you give him a mulligan and trust that he will become a respectable 3pt shooter.

He is knockdown, like 90% from the free throw line. I am not as worried about the shooting after seeing that.

I used to rely on this correlation a lot more before Tre Jones kept up his FTs but has largely struggled with 3s throughout his NBA career.

Perhaps he's just an outlier, but it does give me slight pause. Still, Topic is very young and improving...

Topic is also shooting nearly 5 per game. It is not like he is reluctant to shoot if the defense doesn't respect it.

Scoot for example was shooting 2.7 vs Topic 4.6 per game.

[BlazersBroncos]

that said the long range shooting is a huge red flag. at the same time, he's only 18. maybe he's good enough with the exception of the shooting at such a young age, you give him a mulligan and trust that he will become a respectable 3pt shooter.

He is knockdown, like 90% from the free throw line. I am not as worried about the shooting after seeing that.

I used to rely on this correlation a lot more before Tre Jones kept up his FTs but has largely struggled with 3s throughout his NBA career.

Perhaps he's just an outlier, but it does give me slight pause. Still, Topic is very young and improving...

Tre is certainly an outlier - like Clarkson and Poole (Albeit those 2 also have some pretty bad shot selection from 3, specifically Poole).

But on average its a good bet to assume an elite FT shooter can develop a nice 3.

Think for SAS you look at Topic in the PNR - if you think he has outlier potential as a PNR runner then you take him and deal with the 3 and defense letter. A elite PNR runner w/ Wemby should be the Spurs #1 priority IMO.

Draft ping pong ball gods love SAS so assume they get the TOR FRP - take Topic (If you see him as that outlier PNR guy) and follow it up with a defender to alleviate the meh defense Topic will provide. At the same time - you cant have Topic guarding PG so if you see Devin as a pure SG, and dont want him guarding PG, then Topic may not be a workable fit on defense.

[JMAC3]

He is knockdown, like 90% from the free throw line. I am not as worried about the shooting after seeing that.

I used to rely on this correlation a lot more before Tre Jones kept up his FTs but has largely struggled with 3s throughout his NBA career.

Perhaps he's just an outlier, but it does give me slight pause. Still, Topic is very young and improving...

Tre is certainly an outlier - like Clarkson and Poole (Albeit those 2 also have some pretty bad shot selection from 3, specifically Poole).

But on average its a good bet to assume an elite FT shooter can develop a nice 3.

Think for SAS you look at Topic in the PNR - if you think he has outlier potential as a PNR runner then you take him and deal with the 3 and defense letter. A elite PNR runner w/ Wemby should be the Spurs #1 priority IMO.

Draft ping pong ball gods love SAS so assume they get the TOR FRP - take Topic (If you see him as that outlier PNR guy) and follow it up with a defender to alleviate the meh defense Topic will provide. At the same time - you cant have Topic guarding PG so if you see Devin as a pure SG, and dont want him guarding PG, then Topic may not be a workable fit on defense.

I also think Tre is a bad example because he isn't wired to even be a scorer or shot taker. He was also only 76% in college from the FT line.

[G R E Y]

I used to rely on this correlation a lot more before Tre Jones kept up his FTs but has largely struggled with 3s throughout his NBA career.

Perhaps he's just an outlier, but it does give me slight pause. Still, Topic is very young and improving...

Tre is certainly an outlier - like Clarkson and Poole (Albeit those 2 also have some pretty bad shot selection from 3, specifically Poole).

But on average its a good bet to assume an elite FT shooter can develop a nice 3.

Think for SAS you look at Topic in the PNR - if you think he has outlier potential as a PNR runner then you take him and deal with the 3 and defense letter. A elite PNR runner w/ Wemby should be the Spurs #1 priority IMO.

Draft ping pong ball gods love SAS so assume they get the TOR FRP - take Topic (If you see him as that outlier PNR guy) and follow it up with a defender to alleviate the meh defense Topic will provide. At the same time - you cant have Topic guarding PG so if you see Devin as a pure SG, and dont want him guarding PG, then Topic may not be a workable fit on defense.

I also think Tre is a bad example because he isn't wired to even be a scorer or shot taker. He was also only 76% in college from the FT line.

Well Tre's had only one season at 78%FT and the other three seasons in high 80s percentage. Also his 3s have improved but it's now up to only 33.8%. So yeah it's better but it started so woefully low it's taken four seasons to get below average...

We extended him for two seasons at a very reasonable contract but for sure by this point we know we have to improve the PG - and I really like him.

[G R E Y]

He is knockdown, like 90% from the free throw line. I am not as worried about the shooting after seeing that.

I used to rely on this correlation a lot more before Tre Jones kept up his FTs but has largely struggled with 3s throughout his NBA career.

Perhaps he's just an outlier, but it does give me slight pause. Still, Topic is very young and improving...

Tre is certainly an outlier - like Clarkson and Poole (Albeit those 2 also have some pretty bad shot selection from 3, specifically Poole).

But on average its a good bet to assume an elite FT shooter can develop a nice 3.

Think for SAS you look at Topic in the PNR - if you think he has outlier potential as a PNR runner then you take him and deal with the 3 and defense letter. A elite PNR runner w/ Wemby should be the Spurs #1 priority IMO.

Draft ping pong ball gods love SAS so assume they get the TOR FRP - take Topic (If you see him as that outlier PNR guy) and follow it up with a defender to alleviate the meh defense Topic will provide. At the same time - you cant have Topic guarding PG so if you see Devin as a pure SG, and dont want him guarding PG, then Topic may not be a workable fit on defense.

Thanks. Yeah I have a feeling we upgrade the 1 via trade even if we draft a PG. The balance of development in a rebuild and keeping up with Wemby's growth has to be taken into account, and the starting 1 and 3 are glaring upgrade needs.

Waiting for Topic to upgrade two of the three main PG needs is not ideal.

We need shooters and defenders. Upgrading a position for the facilitating and other skills Topic brings from the start is really switching one set of issues for another.

I don't think we wait for yet another starting rookie to go through growing pains with 3s and D and learning our system. It would be better for him and for us to get reps behind an experienced PG, learn from him, grow with less pressure.

[JMAC3]

I used to rely on this correlation a lot more before Tre Jones kept up his FTs but has largely struggled with 3s throughout his NBA career.

Perhaps he's just an outlier, but it does give me slight pause. Still, Topic is very young and improving...

Tre is certainly an outlier - like Clarkson and Poole (Albeit those 2 also have some pretty bad shot selection from 3, specifically Poole).

But on average its a good bet to assume an elite FT shooter can develop a nice 3.

Think for SAS you look at Topic in the PNR - if you think he has outlier potential as a PNR runner then you take him and deal with the 3 and defense letter. A elite PNR runner w/ Wemby should be the Spurs #1 priority IMO.

Draft ping pong ball gods love SAS so assume they get the TOR FRP - take Topic (If you see him as that outlier PNR guy) and follow it up with a defender to alleviate the meh defense Topic will provide. At the same time - you cant have Topic guarding PG so if you see Devin as a pure SG, and dont want him guarding PG, then Topic may not be a workable fit on defense.

Thanks. Yeah I have a feeling we upgrade the 1 via trade even if we draft a PG. The balance of development in a rebuild and keeping up with Wemby's growth has to be taken into account, and the starting 1 and 3 are glaring upgrade needs.

Waiting for Topic to upgrade two of the three main PG needs is not ideal.

We need shooters and defenders. Upgrading a position for the facilitating and other skills Topic brings from the start is really switching one set of issues for another.

I don't think we wait for yet another starting rookie to go through growing pains with 3s and D and learning our system. It would be better for him and for us to get reps behind an experienced PG, learn from him, grow with less pressure.

Trading for someone is fine, but the Spurs have like 3 real NBA rotation guys right now. They aren't becoming a playoff team overnight even with adding a good starter via trade.

[JMAC3]

Topic played 19 mins in his first Euroleague game this year as an 18 year old.
Hard to imagine he wasn't going to be getting 20-25 mpg as the season went on, that is pretty much unheard of for guys that are that young.
We probably are talking about him in a completely different light if he doesn't get hurt.

[G R E Y]

Tre is certainly an outlier - like Clarkson and Poole (Albeit those 2 also have some pretty bad shot selection from 3, specifically Poole).

But on average its a good bet to assume an elite FT shooter can develop a nice 3.

Think for SAS you look at Topic in the PNR - if you think he has outlier potential as a PNR runner then you take him and deal with the 3 and defense letter. A elite PNR runner w/ Wemby should be the Spurs #1 priority IMO.

Draft ping pong ball gods love SAS so assume they get the TOR FRP - take Topic (If you see him as that outlier PNR guy) and follow it up with a defender to alleviate the meh defense Topic will provide. At the same time - you cant have Topic guarding PG so if you see Devin as a pure SG, and dont want him guarding PG, then Topic may not be a workable fit on defense.

Thanks. Yeah I have a feeling we upgrade the 1 via trade even if we draft a PG. The balance of development in a rebuild and keeping up with Wemby's growth has to be taken into account, and the starting 1 and 3 are glaring upgrade needs.

Waiting for Topic to upgrade two of the three main PG needs is not ideal.

We need shooters and defenders. Upgrading a position for the facilitating and other skills Topic brings from the start is really switching one set of issues for another.

I don't think we wait for yet another starting rookie to go through growing pains with 3s and D and learning our system. It would be better for him and for us to get reps behind an experienced PG, learn from him, grow with less pressure.

Trading for someone is fine, but the Spurs have like 3 real NBA rotation guys right now. They aren't becoming a playoff team overnight even with adding a good starter via trade.

I don't know that that's the goal. We know the West landscape. Still, we can't afford another season with a couple of rookies with at least one if not two as starters. We can't get bogged down by their learning curve but have to have Wemby's floor as a starting point. Rookies can benefit from good vets ahead of them.

That said, I expect at least 6 different players on next year's roster. Changes are coming.

[MemphisX]

Topic played 19 mins in his first Euroleague game this year as an 18 year old.
Hard to imagine he wasn't going to be getting 20-25 mpg as the season went on, that is pretty much unheard of for guys that are that young.
We probably are talking about him in a completely different light if he doesn't get hurt.

This is assuming a lot about his play.

[lambchop]

Topic played 19 mins in his first Euroleague game this year as an 18 year old.
Hard to imagine he wasn't going to be getting 20-25 mpg as the season went on, that is pretty much unheard of for guys that are that young.
We probably are talking about him in a completely different light if he doesn't get hurt.

This is assuming a lot about his play.

At the time Yago was really struggling and people were writing him off, but he redeemed himself. Given Teodosic age, there definitely would have been opportunities for Topic to play big minutes, but 25 mpg would have been a lot imo. I'm not sure if he'll play another game this season though. There's little incentive from a draft stock standpoint and he might play limited minutes in the ABA league playoffs.

[JMAC3]

Topic played 19 mins in his first Euroleague game this year as an 18 year old.
Hard to imagine he wasn't going to be getting 20-25 mpg as the season went on, that is pretty much unheard of for guys that are that young.
We probably are talking about him in a completely different light if he doesn't get hurt.

This is assuming a lot about his play.

I agree to some degree, but am I really?

Clearly Crvena zvezda believed in him, they debuted him at age 16 in the Euroleague, which is pretty rare.
Prior to EuroLeague play he moved over this year and immediately was getting 31 mpg in ABA play. So we can agree he was a big part of the rotation.

Then in his first Euroleague game he played 19 mins.
2nd game he left with 6 mins left in the 3rd quarter, with 11 mins played. Safe to say he didn't start the 3rd quarter so he had just entered and was probably on pace to play close to 20 mins in game 2 again.

So yeah maybe 25 is a slight stretch, but they threw him in the fire from game 1. Didn't really seem like they were planning on treating him with kid gloves in EL play.

[Pokuokic]

Topic played 19 mins in his first Euroleague game this year as an 18 year old.
Hard to imagine he wasn't going to be getting 20-25 mpg as the season went on, that is pretty much unheard of for guys that are that young.
We probably are talking about him in a completely different light if he doesn't get hurt.

This is assuming a lot about his play.

I agree to some degree, but am I really?

Clearly Crvena zvezda believed in him, they debuted him at age 16 in the Euroleague, which is pretty rare.
Prior to EuroLeague play he moved over this year and immediately was getting 31 mpg in ABA play. So we can agree he was a big part of the rotation.

Then in his first Euroleague game he played 19 mins.
2nd game he left with 6 mins left in the 3rd quarter, with 11 mins played. Safe to say he didn't start the 3rd quarter so he had just entered and was probably on pace to play close to 20 mins in game 2 again.

So yeah maybe 25 is a slight stretch, but they threw him in the fire from game 1. Didn't really seem like they were planning on treating him with kid gloves in EL play.

They didn't believe in him at all but they should have since he's better than all 3 of Yago/Napier(the version that played for Red Star at least)/Teodosic the only reason he was brought back was because Napier destroyed the entire team through poor play and locker room drama since he wanted to go back to him former team in Italy, he was the guy the team was meant to be built around and the team despite a bigger budget and more talented roster than last season has been garbage. If Napier never sabotages the team Topic stays at Mega all year or until Red Star is eliminated from play-in contention in the Euroleague.

I don't want any Serbian propsect anywhere near Red Star or Partizan all they do is destroy prospects careers between Koprivica/Vukcevic and to a lesser extent Illic/Trifunovic all there careers have stagnated and gone downwards thank god Topic went to play at Mega

[lambchop]

This is assuming a lot about his play.

I agree to some degree, but am I really?

Clearly Crvena zvezda believed in him, they debuted him at age 16 in the Euroleague, which is pretty rare.
Prior to EuroLeague play he moved over this year and immediately was getting 31 mpg in ABA play. So we can agree he was a big part of the rotation.

Then in his first Euroleague game he played 19 mins.
2nd game he left with 6 mins left in the 3rd quarter, with 11 mins played. Safe to say he didn't start the 3rd quarter so he had just entered and was probably on pace to play close to 20 mins in game 2 again.

So yeah maybe 25 is a slight stretch, but they threw him in the fire from game 1. Didn't really seem like they were planning on treating him with kid gloves in EL play.

They didn't believe in him at all but they should have since he's better than all 3 of Yago/Napier(the version that played for Red Star at least)/Teodosic the only reason he was brought back was because Napier destroyed the entire team through poor play and locker room drama since he wanted to go back to him former team in Italy, he was the guy the team was meant to be built around and the team despite a bigger budget and more talented roster than last season has been garbage. If Napier never sabotages the team Topic stays at Mega all year or until Red Star is eliminated from play-in contention in the Euroleague.

I don't want any Serbian propsect anywhere near Red Star or Partizan all they do is destroy prospects careers between Koprivica/Vukcevic and to a lesser extent Illic/Trifunovic all there careers have stagnated and gone downwards thank god Topic went to play at Mega

There's a reason why virtually no prospects play Euroleague, they all play Eurocup or just stay in domestic leagues. Even Wemby knew it was a bad idea. The Euroleague is too demanding and the focus on winning is extreme. Zvezda had Topic as a starter so you really can't compare Partizan and red star here. The timing was perfect, but Topic just wasn't ready physically, unfortunately.

As for Trifunovic and those guys, well that's on them, honestly. Trifunovic should be playing in Germany or Italy getting loads of minutes, but instead he is a hustle player in limited minutes with Partizan. I understand not wanting to leave home, but it would be the best for his career.

[JMAC3]

Topic is probably a first round pick if he was 2 years older and put up the same stats.

I think his age is probably the most underrated thing about him.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Topic sucked horribly in his two Euroleague games and I would like him to play again in Euroleague before the season ends.

His two month injury has turned into a 3-4 month injury.