G R E Y wrote:FarBeyondDriven wrote:The Moose wrote:
I would think the Turkish league is better than the NBL, just based on who plays in the Turkish league. I live here and follow the NBL closely. For some reason its been drastically overrated by the larger evaluators like Givony and a lot of fans who don't watch the league, but the quality isn't great. Rillie wasn't playing Sarr because he just isn't that good right now. He isn't a better option than Pinder for example, and while I think it's true that the coaches are hesitant to give minutes to guys that have no future with the club, they will still do whats best to win. They won't play young guys who are marginal talent upgrades, but they will play guys who are clear upgrades. Lamelo was the 1st option for the Hawks and by the end of the season was a clear standout. If a player isn't a clear standout in the NBL, you should proceed with caution if you're thinking about drafting a guy top 10. I don't really know how the NBL has built up a strong reputation, but it somehow landed a guy like Ousmane Dieng in the lottery. Also tricked teams into drafting guys like Ferguson, Rupert, Hampton, guys who just straight up are not NBA calibre, Klintman this year too.
Turkish league also is at least on par with the French 1 league, if not better. But yes, most young players in international leagues don't get major roles or major production, thats why when one does, it should be taken seriously and yet it hasn't been.
Topic, unlike Sarr and Risacher was putting up big production in the ABA (a good pro league) at 18yrs old, top 2 in PPG and APG. This is after putting up big numbers in a lower pro Serbian league at 17yrs old. Then add in his play at the EL u18 Next Gen tournament, where he got MVP and basically put the best numbers in the tournaments history. Then add in the fact he's coming off the MVP of the u18 Euro champs while leading Serbia to the title. Then add in that he transferred to Red Star mid season, and walked into a starting spot on a EuroLeague team.
Yang was one of the clear standouts at the u19 worlds and is now putting up crazy numbers in the CBA at 18yrs old.
And speaking of the u19 world's, Risacher was fairly awful and Sarr was meh. Perrin and Ajinca were the best french guys, Almansa was great but he's a weird fit in the NBA and was fairly underwhelming for Ignite this season.
Risacher barely averaged as many 2pt FG + Asts combined as he did turnovers. Basically a pure spot up 3pt shooter, even at that level against his peers.
But yes, I understand why Givony and others are trying to prop up guys like Risacher and Sarr based on loose ideas of potential and upside. Thats because the NCAA guys haven't shown many (if any) tier 1 star prospects, they need to hype up the draft somehow. International players, who most casual fans probably haven't seen outside of highlight and twitter clips, are a good way to keep the hype alive because people don't know how to evaluate them very well.
I'm not going to argue about it but disagree about the Turkish league. There's a reason Spain and France dominate international play. As far as the NBL, it's full of former 4 and 5 star players from NCAA and men that have fully developed games. I'm fairly confident they'd smoke the Turkish league champs but again, it's not worth debating.
Pinder is the perfect example of how guys like Sarr are forced to play backup minutes behind less talented players. Pinder won back to back NBL Most improved player. He's a very good starter. But Sarr is much more talented and better right now. But because Pinder will be there next season and maybe beyond, he's favored and rewarded. It's why you can't really point to minutes or production as a negative when evaluating guys like Sarr. As far as impacting winning, it's not like they're not also still getting production from Sarr. But if winning was the highest priority and they played the most talented player, Sarr would start and play 35 mpg.
LaMelo played for an awful team and he was brought over to increase NBL exposure and attention paid to the league. He was a high profile kid starring in a reality TV show. And unlike Sarr, there was nobody competent ahead of him to prevent him getting minutes. It was a completely different situation for a variety of reasons. While the NBL wants and needs these high profile OAD type talents to go there it doesn't mean they will start them over vets and do what is best for their NBA draft stock. And there's certainly resentment from players and coaches which absolutely impacts their production whether they get minutes or not.
Risacher and Sarr at the U19 had both just turned 18 y/o. Risacher was barely getting any touches and he was like 6th in minutes played for the France team. He got 1 FGA his first game! He struggled shooting in one game but filled the stat sheet with rebounds, assists, blocks and steals. He wasn't "awful" and Sarr was very impactful on the defensive end, flashed quite a bit and was one of the main reasons they won the tournament so was not anywhere near "meh". This is just hyperbole. The reason Perrin and Almansa looked so good is because they both have really good size and BBIQ and hustle. Nobody even talks about Perrin, he's basically absent from most mock drafts but he shouldn't be as he's easily a first round talent so there's no overrating there. And Almansa is also an afterthought not found in first rounds since he's a tweener and didn't light the world on fire with Ignite. Sarr and Risacher have both grown physically, mentally and their confidence is much higher.
These insiders aren't "propping up" the draft lmao. They're incessantly **** on it like everyone in here does. What are you even talking about? They're high on these international prospects because they've all shown out against their peers in international play. They all have translatable NBA size, length and athleticism and have actual skill. It has nothing to do with the supposed lack of OAD freshmen talent that they're ranked high. They're ranked high because they're very good prospects and would be high lottery picks in the first half of lotteries in almost every draft in history. I don't know why people love downplaying how gifted these guys are.
Alas, I don't blame so many for thinking this class is weak like I used to. It really does require more effort and really good evaluation skills. More than usual anyway because most of the really good talent is inhibited due to where they play or for what team and what role they play. Most evaluators rely primarily on stats and that's just not going to paint an accurate picture for this class. Unlike in past years, where you'd watch the supposed top OAD guys being showcased, guys are choosing the same schools (Kentucky, Duke), guys are choosing to join veteran teams or that have Championship aspirations (Castle, George, McCain, Furphy, Foster, Stojakovic) which limit their minutes and touches, guys have dealt with injuries (Williams), guys play with Ignite (Holland, Buzelis, Smith), guys play overseas (Flowers) or guys play out of position (Mgbako). So we are getting very few OAD kids that are in ideal situations to improve their draft stock.
The only OAD talent I felt that approached this season with the intention to maximize his draft stock and was also in an ideal situation were Carlton Carrington and Jared McCain. And lo and behold, despite the "experts" not buying into it them yet, both have proven to be lottery talents.
Carrington has an incredible ability to take guys off the dribble, create separation to get his shot off, can score on all three levels, can pass and can defend at a high level. The only thing he didn't show me was above the basket athleticism but that might just be due to opportunity and consistency with his release and footwork on his outside shot. At nearly 6'6" he's one of the few potential high-level starters I can see in this draft. And the "experts" think he should return!!! Carrington deserves as much draft hype as Black did last season and Black went #6 in a supposedly much better draft.
McCain proved to be arguably the best off-ball player in the draft not named Knecht but unlike Knecht he has on-ball lead guard, albeit unlikely, or secondary ball-handling potential. He's the same level of prospect as Suggs. But again, nobody seems to gaf. Suggs went #5 in a supposedly much better draft.
Either I'm proven to be a complete fraudulent blowhard and lose face or all these experts and everyone on here are. Something has to give
Thanks to you both. This has been a really informative exchange of info and insight and contexts.
Who would you say are your top 3-5 international prospects, non-NCAA, regardless of position (or if you prefer position context, sure).
Agree with OP above about this overlapping with international prospects, but then again they're all in this draft...
As I mentioned, it's been very difficult to evaluate this year's class due to a variety of reasons but especially because so many of the top prospects are overseas. We aren't getting to see them play live or with and against their peers. This draft class more than any in the past is going to require people with really strong evaluation skills to parse through the tape and recognize flashes instead of reading box scores and relying on advanced stats. It requires a leap of faith, no doubt about it. I'm noticing either people seem unable to evaluate this way or unwilling to take those leaps of faith. Like I said, I can't blame them. We've never seen a draft class like this before.
My top 5 international prospects in no order as that won't be finalized until draft day
Sarr - I see Evan Mobley 2.0. It is uncanny how similar they are as prospects. I actually think he's a little bit better of a prospect because he's a better passer and moves much better as a perimeter defender. Probably a better athlete too. Seems to have better bend. I'm not convinced he's as long though. Need to see his measurements.
Yang - Sengun 2.0 but with defense
He could very well go #1. He'd be college basketball's best player had he played in the NCAA with his size and skill level. I need to see measurements and how he performs in workouts plus see him play against his peers at the combine or summits before I'm ready to put him over Sarr but I have a feeling I will. He kinda dominated at the U19 and scouts should all universally have him near the top of this draft but this won't happen until they can all arrive in sync with consensus groupthink.
Risacher - He should be looked at as being in the same tier as guys like MPJ, Jabari Smith, the Thompson twins and Keegan Murray. Not a star but a very good role player. Likely a #3 but with #2 upside.
Topic - there's so much to like but he's got more question marks than all of the others due to his lack of tape against NBA level peers and not knowing his true height, wingspan or how he'll perform in drills. I think it's safe to say he's at least a Giddey level prospect. Giddey gets a lot of irrational hatred but he's playing out of position and he's still a starter on a championship level team. If that's all Topic becomes he belongs in the top half of this or any draft class. I think Topic could be better than Giddey because he appears quicker and a more natural point guard and of course because he gets to the FT line and can hit those at a high rate.
Salaun - Another MPJ, Smith, Jalen Johnson type prospect. So young and physically gifted. Upside as great as Risacher. Where Risacher is quicker and more sudden and likely a better defender and off-ball player, I feel like Salaun will be more powerful, be able to play off the block, dive in the PnR and has some back to the basket potential should he put on the muscle I feel his frame can hold, unlike Risacher's.
