Your Lottery Big Boards

[The-Power]

@The Moose makes a good point in the other thread that there's too much focus on who shouldn't be drafted with a high pick and too little focus on who actually should. Considering that just like in every draft there will be players picked at every draft spot, I too believe it's time to shift focus.

That's why I would like to see your big boards. It says lottery in the title but if you only have a top 10 or would like to expand beyond the lottery you're obviously free to post accordingly. Some information on what you expect from the respective prospects in the NBA would be great but obviously not necessary.

I personally don't have a lottery board written down yet but I'm happy to share the names that already have as potential or likely candidates.

[JMAC3]

Copy pasted from Reed/Dilly thread since this seems to be a better landing spot.

Top 20 right now, tier order is still in process so disregard order of players especially in Tier 1.

Tier 1 - Starters with upside. 1-5
Risacher, Topic, Sarr, Holland, Cody Williams

Tier 2- Solid Starters 6-9
Buzelis, Castle, Walter, Collier

Tier 3 - star potential but more concerning red flags. 10-11
Dillingham, Saluan

Tier 4 Low End Starters, High Level Reserve Role Players 12-16
Clingan, Tyler Smith Sheppard, Filipowski, Knecht

Next 4 out on my watch list
Furphy, McClain, Missi, Carrington

[The-Power]

Spoiler:

Copy pasted from Reed/Dilly thread since this seems to be a better landing spot.

Top 20 right now, tier order is still in process so disregard order of players especially in Tier 1.

Tier 1 - Starters with upside. 1-5
Risacher, Topic, Sarr, Holland, Cody Williams

Tier 2- Solid Starters 6-9
Buzelis, Castle, Walter, Collier

Tier 3 - star potential but more concerning red flags. 10-11
Dillingham, Saluan

Tier 4 Low End Starters, High Level Reserve Role Players 12-16
Clingan, Tyler Smith Sheppard, Filipowski, Knecht

Next 4 out on my watch list
Furphy, McClain, Missi, Carrington

Appreciate the big board even as we disagree on some individual players (reasonable people can disagree, particularly on prospects). I'm curious: do you have 16 players with the median outcome of being (low-end) starters? Or how confident are you in these players reaching that level?

[JMAC3]

Spoiler:

Copy pasted from Reed/Dilly thread since this seems to be a better landing spot.

Top 20 right now, tier order is still in process so disregard order of players especially in Tier 1.

Tier 1 - Starters with upside. 1-5
Risacher, Topic, Sarr, Holland, Cody Williams

Tier 2- Solid Starters 6-9
Buzelis, Castle, Walter, Collier

Tier 3 - star potential but more concerning red flags. 10-11
Dillingham, Saluan

Tier 4 Low End Starters, High Level Reserve Role Players 12-16
Clingan, Tyler Smith Sheppard, Filipowski, Knecht

Next 4 out on my watch list
Furphy, McClain, Missi, Carrington

Appreciate the big board even as we disagree on some individual players (reasonable people can disagree, particularly on prospects). I'm curious: do you have 16 players with the median outcome of being (low-end) starters? Or how confident are you in these players reaching that level?

Of course, a few will miss I don't expect everyone I like to hit... like Salaun and Dillingham have biggest disappointment factor for me but they also could be the best player in class if they hit their ceilings so it's just how you want to prioritize the risk/reward.

Idk if Buzelis is a star, but hard to imagine he can't give you Deni level of production IMO. Walter has protypical size/shooting for starting SG.

but yeah I think guys like Clingan can be a Poeltl level contributor. Flip I see more as a elite reserve big but in the right scenario maybe he is a starter, same with Sheppard. Knecht feels like a Duncan Robinson type where he is just such a weapon hard to fail.

[BlazersBroncos]

1. Matas Buzelis F
2. Zaccharie Risacher F
3. Alexandre Sarr C
4. Nikola Topic G
5. Tidjane Salaun F
6. Ron Holland F
7. Zvonimir Ivisic C
8. Johnny Furphy GF
9. Cody Williams F
10. Reed Sheppard G
11. Stephon Castle G
12. Kyle Fillipowski FC
13. Rob Dillingham G
14. Kyshawn George GF

[BigGargamel]

Fluctuates obviously but if I had to tier them I'd probably have...

Top five, any order - Risacher, Holland, Williams, Sarr, Topic
Tier two, could break into top five easily - Buzelis, Collier
Tier three, probably top ten - Salaun, Sheppard, Walter, Castle
Tier four, late lottery with chance to break into top ten - Dillingham, Knecht, Filipowski
Tier five, teens or late lottery with some luck - Missi, Tyler Smith, Clingan, McCain, Ivisic

Uppperclassmen who I think could be first rounders somewhere - Shannon, McCullar, Sallis, Holmes, Alexander, Devin Carter, Edey, Kalkbrenner, da Silva, Simpson (this list could be pretty long)

I don't have Furphy in this class right now, but he would be in that tier five.

[The-Power]

.

Let's talk about the players you listed and see where we may disagree or view things differently (obviously everyone can and should chime in here).

Risacher – Really looks like an NBA player with a fairly high floor at a position of need. I do buy his shooting considering what type of shots he's willing to take and able to make even though the FT% might indicate that he's not an elite shooter (tbd). It's tough to imagine him in an extended on-ball role in the NBA at this point, though, and that limits his upside on offense. Considering that he's also not projecting to be a top-tier defender as far as I can see (though he can certainly be a good one), he feels like a relatively safe bet to be a valuable complementary player on a good playoff team. Maybe the third or fourth best player on such a team if he hits a higher-end (not highest-end) outcome?

Topic – I have him up there as well and in contention for the #1 pick. His driving game is fantastic and he combines it with good playmaking ability. The shooting is the concern and a lot will hinge on how good he can become in that regard. We have seen Giddey lose a ton of value despite having good size, good playmaking instincts and a solid ability to create shots around the rim because teams dare him to shoot and he doesn't shoot well enough. That hurts him playing on the ball as well as next to other great players. The team drafting Topic has to hope for good progression on his jump shot or else he may struggle similarly (and he currently does not display an in-between game to make up for some of it either). The FT% is at least somewhat encouraging. And on defense, he's been terrible when I have watched him (primarily in national team games) but a big part of that was poor effort (for the better or worse). As one of the few potential primary creators on a good team he should go very high but he has clear concerns as well that may never allow him to realize his full potential.

Sarr – I'm a bit of a skeptic. Clearly he has some appeal but I don't see a #1 pick. With his skill-set and physical profile he's stuck a bit between positions. Ultimately, you draft him to be your Center but I'm a bit concerned about his frame and the extent to which it allows him to battle with the Giants. If he was more of a rim protector I could buy into him more but while he has his flashes, I don't see a dominant rim protector in him. So there's a chance once again people fall in love with the idea of a nimble and athletic 7 footer with flashes of skill who in reality, however, never finds a way to consistently impact the game on both ends because the skill-level is not high and the physical profile not elite enough. It's clearly possible that he gets there but to me that's not someone I'd draft with the #1 pick. Right now, I wouldn't bet on him becoming a clearly above-average starting Center.

Holland – I've come around a bit on Holland. Clearly there are big questions marks about him. First and foremost, that's his shooting ability. If he's a clearly below average shooter for his position – would he be a starter on a playoff team? If he gets to Jaylen Brown levels or even a smidge below that, however, then his value dramatically increases. His physical profile and athleticism is fantastic. He projects to be great in secondary actions with him rim pressure and he can make athletic plays all over the court. He has a good motor which should help him turn into a good and potentially very good defender (he has a lot of flaws on that end still but a lot of that seems something coaches can work on). I have him as a top 5 pick even though I don't expect a superstar even as a higher-end outcome and I do see a path for him not being a long-term starter. There's just a lot to work with in a non-primary role with the potential that he can expand into a more primary role (a second or at least third offensive option type of player) down the road.

Cody Williams – I've outed myself as a fan of Cody. A lot of that is the idea of who he can become, though. A tall and lanky wing who can create on the ball as a secondary ball handler and creator, and a plus defender. There are a lot of swing skills for him, though. Can he become a legitimately good shooter? Can he tighten up his handle enough to drive against NBA players consistently? Can he add enough muscle to his frame to play his game on both ends? All of that seems doable and if he hits all of that he can be an All-Star. But it's not a given either and only failing in one of the three categories will seriously limit what he can be. Top 5 pick, yes, but it's heavily betting on upside.

Buzelis – I'm more of a skeptic with him, too. What's his role at the next level? A shooting 4 that can put the ball on the floor a bit with potential as a help defender? My issue with him is that a) his size-athleticism combo doesn't seem great (he should be more athletic at his size, or have more size at his current athletic level), and b) he has not established himself as a good shooter. There's a clear path for him never ending up a starter on a playoff team, and I'm not sure the path towards being a franchise changing player is clear enough to have him close to the top of the draft despite this possibility. Is he worth a lottery pick? Sure. But I don't see a top 5 prospect.

Castle – I've been very high on Castle coming into the season and then cooled on him a lot. His complete reluctance to shoot over long stretches was and is a big concern. I have some hope that it's partially a confidence issue and some tweaks to his shot can turn him into a solid shooter. He needs a reliable midrange game and be able to punish defenses for going under screens if he wants to fulfill his potential. In that case, I can see him as a secondary creator in the NBA who also plays very good defense, especially with the ability to guard 1-3 on the ball. That would make him a very valuable player and long-term starter. With that being said, if he never develops into a comfortable shooter I don't see him being able to start games in the NBA for good playoff teams. It's too big of an obstacle to overcome for someone who doesn't have any other elite traits to compensate for that. I think a team towards the latter half of the top 10 may be able to talk themselves into drafting him in this draft.

Walter – I'm pretty out on Walter as a top prospect. His best ability is his shooting and I don't think it's elite. I expect him to turn into a reliable shooter down the road but that's not enough to vault him into the upper tier of prospects considering that he doesn't stand out in any other area. He's limited as a ball handler, has not shown much as a playmaker, doesn't have great athleticism, looks to have solid but not great size and on defense I think him being around average wouldn't be a bad outcome. Just a lot of concerns. What he has going for him is that he should be easy to plug and play on most teams and line-ups, so I'm confident he'll be a rotation player. But will he be the kind of rotation player that teams truly value and really want to keep long-term? I don't know. Right now, I think I'd have him outside the lottery.

Collier – He's an interesting kind of prospect. He does remind me of a Westbrook without the elite athleticism. How much is such a player worth? It's tough to say but there are legitimate concerns. I am intrigued by his ability to put pressure on defenses with his drives, I love his strength, and I do see clear playmaking upside with him. His shot also isn't broken (though obviously a swing skill for him). I don't see him as a PG though. Not yet at least (it would take a lot). And with his size and resulting defensive limitations, plus him not projecting to be an off-ball shooter, he's not an easy fit with a lot of teams. I do think he's most likely a 6th man on a good playoff team even if his skill-set translates reasonably well to the NBA. Still, if someone thinks that's worth a top 10 pick – hoping that he ends up being more than that but being fine if he's not – then I'd say that's far (even as I'm not sure yet if I'll have him there in the end).

Dillingham – I think Dillingham is a lot like Collier in that he's an elite driver who, however, lacks size and should be your primary creator on offense if he's to start. I trust him a bit more than Collier, though. His jumper is much further along and I see a greater chance that Dillingham becomes so good as a shot creator that he's worth playing in a primary offensive role (even as I see his defense as more problematic; if both play with effort, Collier should be clearly better). There's a good chance he also ends up as ‘only’ a 6th man type of player but he's electric enough as a driver, shot maker and shot creator that I'd bet on his upside over Collier's and pick him in the top 10.

Salaun – I haven't seen enough to form a strong opinion but I'm not super convinced that he's a great prospect yet.

Clingan – It's difficult to evaluate him. I like him and I think he's a bit more modern (though less dominant) compared to Edey. He's going to be a drop big in the league on defense but that's fine on a lot of teams as long as you don't necessarily expect him to play 32+ MPG. I wish he had better hands and a better touch around the rim, especially considering that he can't be projected to ever space the floor. At least he has shown some rudimentary passing ability that he can hopefully expand on. And, of course, there are injury concerns with him. I do believe he has a chance to be a starting Center in the league although I don't think he'll be a building block. Someone like Zubac, Poeltl or (dare I say it?) Ayton who can start and bring in rebounding and a paint presence but are not cornerstones of their respective teams. If he reaches that kind of status he's obviously worth a late lottery pick. It's clearly not a given, though, and the upside isn't all that enticing. Still, in this draft it might be enough for him to end up in the lottery.

Tyler Smith – I'm a fan of Tyler Smith. I think he has a decent chance at being a starting-level player although things still have to break right for him (in particular, his shot has to translate, he has to hold up on defense, and ideally he plays next to a skilled Center). In this draft, however, I think someone with his profile who could be a decent plug-and-play Forward who plays 25+ MPG in the NBA is worth a pick in the teens at least.

Sheppard – I've outed myself already as a big fan and have mentioned that he's in my top 5. I understand some of the concerns, I do. But I also believe his upside on offense is not appreciated enough by some and he just projects to be a player coaches will love and find minutes for (just as Coach Cal is very hesitant to take him off the court). There aren't many (any?) players in the draft that I can say the same about. I can see him being anything from high-level bench player (lower-end outcome) to high-level starter (higher-end outcome) – but I struggle to see him as much less than that.

Filipowski – I'm still not 100% sure where I land with Filipowski. But I do believe he's a clear lottery talent in this draft. His production is excellent and he has the modern offensive skillsets teams value in bigs these days. His defense will be key in determining what he can be in the NBA but I have enough faith in his size and activity on that end that I think he'll be playable, even if potentially (or even likely) below average. There's still a chance that he's a bench big (either due to defensive shortcomings and/or because he's only an unreliable shooter) but I can also see him as an offensive hub, or someone prominently featured in his team's offense, and that can certainly render him a valuable starter, too.

Knecht – I'll do a deeper dive on him soon and refrain from commenting until then.

Furphy – In a normal draft, I'd be more comfortable taking him in the 20s. In this draft, he's probably a talent that should go in the teens. There's a good chance that he's at least an NBA rotation player with his size (though I do worry about his lack of strength) and shooting ability in addition to him having a high motor. He could even warrant a late lottery pick.

McCain – I can't argue with his effectiveness but I struggle with his profile. I think he's a FRP but not sure how high I'm comfortable going with him not showing a ton as a playmaker in particular.

Missi – Not a big fan of bigs who cannot shoot, aren't good passers, and aren't really all that dominant in the paint on defense. Just tough to gauge the value here. He may be a starting Center if things break right but is he really much more valuable than some of the bigs you can pick up every year in FA even if his game translates well? Surely a FRP but once again, I'm not sure how high I can go with him.

Carrington – He may never amount to anything in the NBA but I see the intrigue of his profile and sure, in this draft I can definitely see some team talking themselves into drafting him fairly high hoping on him reaching his ceiling instead of falling out of the NBA. I wouldn't blame them.

---------------------------

A couple names I'd like to throw out here:

Pelle Larsson – Yes, I'm the only person on this earth who is this high on him but I see him as a potential lottery talent. Not that I'd necessarily draft him there (you probably can trade down/out and still pick him up) but on a big board I'd struggle to have more than 14 players ahead of him. He projects to be an immediate role player who can shoot, pass, defend and drive at solid-to-good levels and he can play in a lot of different line-ups with his profile. I can see him as a high-level bench player or even a lower-end starter for years to come, and that's a pretty good floor to bank on in this draft.

Zvonimir Ivisic – I recently said he'd be toast in the NBA right now and part of me thinks he should return to college. But if he declares, I'd have him in the lottery. The talent and upside is there. Can he put it together? That's a good question and the answer may ultimately end up being ‘no’ – but some team in the lottery gamble on his upside.

Kevin McCullar – He had his shine for a while, then came the injury. I'm concerned what he'll end up being if he's going to be someone who can be left open on the perimeter, and that's definitely a possibility, but if he can shoot just enough teams will find minutes for him and therefore he's a clear FRP (and closer to the middle than the end) for me.

Zach Edey – I still struggle ranking him. I'm not as high as his most vocal fans, far from it, but I also do acknowledge the possibility that he's still a match-up problem even at the NBA level and that makes him a tough evaluation. I'd be much more comfortable if he had shown more flashes as a passer but as is, I struggle to envision a team running a ton of offense through him and that limits his value. I'm not sure he's a starter in that case (though it seems possible if he can adopt a more modern PnR style). Still, I currently have him as a FRP all things considered.

Mackenzie Mgbako – Not sure what to do with him and he might (should?) stay in college for another season, but I can definitely see teams with FRPs take a swing at him and his profile.

Hansen Yang – Just throwing his name out here. No idea what to make of him as a draft prospect. Is he intriguing or not even a prospect? I won't pretend to know but he looked interesting at least in the international games I watched.

Kyshawn George – I know he has his fans out there. I need to take a closer look at him still but of course someone with his profile will always get some eyes by teams in the first round. The question is: how high would someone pull the trigger if he were to declare?

A couple other players I'd like to hear people's opinions on:

– Ryan Dunn
– Izan Almansa
– Alex Karaban
– Kameron Jones
– Kwame Evans Jr.
– D.J. Wagner
– Antonio Reeves
– Justin Edwards
– Anton Watson
– Tyrese Proctor
– Jamir Watkins
– PJ Hall
– Baylor Scheiermann
– Jaylon Tyson
– Tyler Kolek
– Kylan Boswell
– Tristan da Silva
– Ajay Mitchell
– Terrence Shannon Jr.
– Dillon Jones

Which of these prospect intrigue you? Which ones would make your top 30?

[tester551]

I like this format best:

Tier 1 - Likely All-Star
None

Tier 2 - Quality Starters with upside
Risacher, Buzelis, Cody Williams, Holland

Tier 3 - Decent Starters
Sarr, Castle, Sheppard, Holmes

Tier 3a - High Variance Players (Boom/Bust)
Topic, Chomche, Ivisic, Dunn

Tier 4 - Low End Starters, High Level Reserve Role Players
Walter, Missi, Dillingham, Salaun, Filipowski, Clingan, Furphy, Knecht

[FarBeyondDriven]

I think people have very short memories and forget that most draft classes only have a few high-end starters or difference makers and most of the supposed elite prospects just become role players. Look at 2017. It has been considered an all-time great class. One of the few classes so easy to judge a year out that even the scouts got it right.

It has three bonafide #1 guys:

Tatum
Fox
Mitchell

It has a couple of #2 guys:

Markkanen
Bam

It has a few #3 thru #5 guys:

Allen
OG
White
Kuzma
Monk
Ball
Collins
Hart
Brooks

and that's about it folks. One of the best draft classes ever has only a lottery full of starters


It's still very early but I'm not as sure about there being any #1 guys in this class which is why it's not an all-time great draft class. But I do think there's a very high likelyhood compared to 2017, after those three #1 guys, this class will be much better with more starters

I keep an updated Big Board in the Mock Draft section

3/2/24 Big Board

1. Sarr
2. Risacher
3. Holland
4. Collier
5. Yang
6. Carrington
7. Topic
8. Salaun
9. George
10. Williams
11. Castle
12. Buzelis
13. McCain
14. Missi
15. Knecht
16. Walter
17. Smith
18. Watkins
19. Filipowski
20. Ighodaro
21. Sheppard
22. Dillingham
23. Furphy
24. Perrin
25. Ndongo
26. Klintman
27. Bona
28. McCullar
29. Karaban
30. A. Mitchell

[The-Power]

and that's about it folks. One of the best draft classes ever has only a lottery full of starters

It's still very early but I'm not as sure about there being any #1 guys in this class which is why it's not an all-time great draft class. But I do think there's a very high likelyhood compared to 2017, after those three #1 guys, this class will be much better with more starters

So you think this draft class is likely to be pretty much the deepest draft class ever? Because a lottery full of starters plus some additional long-term role players already suggests elite depth. So that's a bold statement you make here.

[JMAC3]

.

Let's talk about the players you listed and see where we may disagree or view things differently (obviously everyone can and should chime in here).

Risacher – Really looks like .......

Great to see some thoughts, but what is your board right now?

[Hal14]

Rank Player
1 Rob Dillingham
2 Ron Holland
3 Alexandre Sarr
4 Kyle Filipowski
5 Matas Buzelis
6 Zaccharie Risacher
7 Reed Sheppard
8 Stephon Castle
9 Nikola Topic
10 Cody Williams
11 Jamir Watkins
12 Kevin McCullar Jr
13 Devin Carter
14 Alex Karaban

[clyde21]

very soft order, was tough to do because a lot of these guys I don't think there is much separating them tbh, just gonna depend on fit/scheme and whether you prefer a higher floor or higher ceiling.

1 Matas Buzelis
2 Rob Dillingham

3 Alexandre Sarr
4 Stephon Castle
5 Ron Holland
6 Kyle Filipowski
7 Ja'Kobe Walter
8 Zaccharie Risacher
9 Reed Sheppard
10 Jared McCain
11 KJ Evans
12 Cody Williams
13 Dalton Knecht
14 Oso Ighodaro

[FarBeyondDriven]

and that's about it folks. One of the best draft classes ever has only a lottery full of starters

It's still very early but I'm not as sure about there being any #1 guys in this class which is why it's not an all-time great draft class. But I do think there's a very high likelyhood compared to 2017, after those three #1 guys, this class will be much better with more starters

So you think this draft class is likely to be pretty much the deepest draft class ever? Because a lottery full of starters plus some additional long-term role players already suggests elite depth. So that's a bold statement you make here.

there are different levels of starters. 2017 has several #1 and #2 types. I'm not sure (yet) that 2024 has any of those tbh, though there's some hope and by draft night I'll have a definitive opinion on that. But I'm fairly confident it will have a whole bunch of starters, maybe even a lottery's worth. Which will make this at worse a solid, average draft class, not the weakest since 2013 like is the consensus.

2024 class is really feeling like the 2016 class. The consensus back then was that it was a weak draft class and everyone was looking forward to the following two classes. But a funny thing happened. The scouts, doing what they do best, got it wrong on a bunch of guys. It ended up having multiple all-stars and nearly a lottery worth of starters. I think there's a possibility the 2024 class will be very similar in that regard. We'll look back in 5 years and while it might not have all-NBA talent, it'll have some all-stars and close to a lottery's worth of starters plus solid role players.

[The-Power]

.

Let's talk about the players you listed and see where we may disagree or view things differently (obviously everyone can and should chime in here).

Risacher – Really looks like .......

Great to see some thoughts, but what is your board right now?

I had hoped to see some response to the content – what you see differently, where our views are aligned, and what you think of some of the additionally players I listed. I hope that's still to come because that's what the board should be about, I believe.

As noted, I don't have a firm big board yet. Still tons to sort out but since you asked, here's a rough outlook (the order within tiers is very fluid):

Tier 1
–

Tier 2
–

Tier 3
Nikola Topic
Reed Sheppard
Zaccharie Risacher
Cody Williams
Ron Holland

Tier 4
Rob Dillingham
Kyle Filipowski
Dalton Knecht
Alexander Sarr
Pelle Larsson
Tyler Smith
Zvonimir Ivisic
Stephon Castle
Isaiah Collier
Matas Buzelis
Johnny Furphy

Then come a bunch of players including KJ Lewis, Walter, Clingan, Salaun, Edey, Missi, McCain, McCullar, Mgbako, George, Carrington, Edwards, Yang, Boswell, Reeves, Watkins, Dunn, Kolek and some others that I'd consider for the top 30 (and some of them I can see moving into the tier above). Still a bunch of players that I haven't seen enough of to pinpoint their ranking and I expect some bigger changes still.

[Colbinii]

Let's talk about the players you listed and see where we may disagree or view things differently (obviously everyone can and should chime in here).

Risacher – Really looks like .......

Great to see some thoughts, but what is your board right now?

I had hoped to see some response to the content – what you see differently, where our views are aligned, and what you think of some of the additionally players I listed. I hope that's still to come because that's what the board should be about, I believe.

As noted, I don't have a firm big board yet. Still tons to sort out but since you asked, here's a rough outlook (the order within tiers is very fluid):

Tier 1
–

Tier 2
–

Tier 3
Nikola Topic
Reed Sheppard
Zaccharie Risacher
Cody Williams
Ron Holland

Tier 4
Rob Dillingham
Kyle Filipowski
Dalton Knecht
Alexander Sarr
Pelle Larsson
Tyler Smith
Zvonimir Ivisic
Stephon Castle
Isaiah Collier
Matas Buzelis
Johnny Furphy

Then come a bunch of players including KJ Lewis, Walter, Clingan, Salaun, Edey, Missi, McCain, McCullar, Mgbako, George, Carrington, Edwards, Yang, Boswell, Reeves, Watkins, Dunn, Kolek and some others that I'd consider for the top 30 (and some of them I can see moving into the tier above). Still a bunch of players that I haven't seen enough of to pinpoint their ranking and I expect some bigger changes still.

Can you give me some examples of Tier 2, Tier 3 and Tier 4 players of yours in the past few drafts?

[The-Power]

Can you give me some examples of Tier 2, Tier 3 and Tier 4 players of yours in the past few drafts?

I don't have a neat definition of tiers, so it's not always a straight comparison to previous drafts and is often more useful as an ordering within a draft. That being said, I usually reserve Tier 1 for those who I consider exceptional prospects and very strong #1 picks. Tier 2 includes those I still consider to be potential franchise-changers and worthy #1 picks without a top-tier prospect. Tier 3 are players I wouldn't love picking in the top 3 of most drafts (if the expectation is to have a good shot at a franchise player) but who I can see turning into All-Stars or who I believe have a good chance of becoming high-level starters, and Tier 4 are players who I see as players with a good chance of sticking in the NBA in a valuable role for a long time or who have clear bust potential but enough upside to warrant a pick later in the lottery or around the middle of the first round. (Tier 5 would mostly be players where there's still reasonable hope that they are NBA-caliber players and can fill some kind of role but where it can go either way – those are usually players you'd want to take later in the first round or early in the second).

Here's my copied big boards from two recent drafts to illustrate the idea.

2023 Draft:

Spoiler:

Tier 1
Victor Wembanyama

Tier 2
Brandon Miller

Tier 3
Scoot Henderson
Jarace Walker
Anthony Black
Sidy Cissoko
Taylor Hendricks
Cam Whitmore
Keyonte George

2021 Draft:

Spoiler:

Tier 1
Cade Cunningham

Tier 2
Jalen Green
Evan Mobley

Tier 3
Jalen Suggs
Scottie Barnes
Franz Wagner
Jonathan Kuminga
Moses Moody
Josh Christopher
Roko Prkačin
Alperen Şengün
Jalen Johnson

The list for the tier 4 guys then becomes quite a bit longer. I hope this illustrates it a bit still. And as I mentioned, without fixed tier definitions it becomes a bit more difficult to compare across drafts – but I think my big boards for these two drafts are somewhat comparable here. Obviously with the benefit of hindsight and/or what I learned from misses in the past these big boards would look a bit different now.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Can you give me some examples of Tier 2, Tier 3 and Tier 4 players of yours in the past few drafts?

I don't have a neat definition of tiers, so it's not always a straight comparison to previous drafts and is often more useful as an ordering within a draft. That being said, I usually reserve Tier 1 for those who I consider exceptional prospects and very strong #1 picks. Tier 2 includes those I still consider to be potential franchise-changers and worthy #1 picks without a top-tier prospect. Tier 3 are players I wouldn't love picking in the top 3 of most drafts (if the expectation is to have a good shot at a franchise player) but who I can see turning into All-Stars or who I believe have a good chance of becoming high-level starters, and Tier 4 are players who I see as players with a good chance of sticking in the NBA in a valuable role for a long time or who have clear bust potential but enough upside to warrant a pick later in the lottery or around the middle of the first round. (Tier 5 would mostly be players where there's still reasonable hope that they are NBA-caliber players and can fill some kind of role but where it can go either way – those are usually players you'd want to take later in the first round or early in the second).

Here's my copied big boards from two recent drafts to illustrate the idea.

2023 Draft:

Spoiler:

Tier 1
Victor Wembanyama

Tier 2
Brandon Miller

Tier 3
Scoot Henderson
Jarace Walker
Anthony Black
Sidy Cissoko
Taylor Hendricks
Cam Whitmore
Keyonte George

2021 Draft:

Spoiler:

Tier 1
Cade Cunningham

Tier 2
Jalen Green
Evan Mobley

Tier 3
Jalen Suggs
Scottie Barnes
Franz Wagner
Jonathan Kuminga
Moses Moody
Josh Christopher
Roko Prkačin
Alperen Şengün
Jalen Johnson

The list for the tier 4 guys then becomes quite a bit longer. I hope this illustrates it a bit still. And as I mentioned, without fixed tier definitions it becomes a bit more difficult to compare across drafts – but I think my big boards for these two drafts are somewhat comparable here. Obviously with the benefit of hindsight and/or what I learned from misses in the past these big boards would look a bit different now.

based on your tiers

Tier 1

-------

Tier 2

Sarr, Risacher, Yang, Holland

Tier 3

Topic, Castle, Williams, George, Carrington, Collier, McCain, Salaun

Essentially 2024 is like any other draft class minus the elite talent(s) at the top but with better depth

[elias808]

.

Let's talk about the players you listed and see where we may disagree or view things differently (obviously everyone can and should chime in here).

Risacher – Really looks like an NBA player with a fairly high floor at a position of need. I do buy his shooting considering what type of shots he's willing to take and able to make even though the FT% might indicate that he's not an elite shooter (tbd). It's tough to imagine him in an extended on-ball role in the NBA at this point, though, and that limits his upside on offense. Considering that he's also not projecting to be a top-tier defender as far as I can see (though he can certainly be a good one), he feels like a relatively safe bet to be a valuable complementary player on a good playoff team. Maybe the third or fourth best player on such a team if he hits a higher-end (not highest-end) outcome?

Topic – I have him up there as well and in contention for the #1 pick. His driving game is fantastic and he combines it with good playmaking ability. The shooting is the concern and a lot will hinge on how good he can become in that regard. We have seen Giddey lose a ton of value despite having good size, good playmaking instincts and a solid ability to create shots around the rim because teams dare him to shoot and he doesn't shoot well enough. That hurts him playing on the ball as well as next to other great players. The team drafting Topic has to hope for good progression on his jump shot or else he may struggle similarly (and he currently does not display an in-between game to make up for some of it either). The FT% is at least somewhat encouraging. And on defense, he's been terrible when I have watched him (primarily in national team games) but a big part of that was poor effort (for the better or worse). As one of the few potential primary creators on a good team he should go very high but he has clear concerns as well that may never allow him to realize his full potential.

Sarr – I'm a bit of a skeptic. Clearly he has some appeal but I don't see a #1 pick. With his skill-set and physical profile he's stuck a bit between positions. Ultimately, you draft him to be your Center but I'm a bit concerned about his frame and the extent to which it allows him to battle with the Giants. If he was more of a rim protector I could buy into him more but while he has his flashes, I don't see a dominant rim protector in him. So there's a chance once again people fall in love with the idea of a nimble and athletic 7 footer with flashes of skill who in reality, however, never finds a way to consistently impact the game on both ends because the skill-level is not high and the physical profile not elite enough. It's clearly possible that he gets there but to me that's not someone I'd draft with the #1 pick. Right now, I wouldn't bet on him becoming a clearly above-average starting Center.

Holland – I've come around a bit on Holland. Clearly there are big questions marks about him. First and foremost, that's his shooting ability. If he's a clearly below average shooter for his position – would he be a starter on a playoff team? If he gets to Jaylen Brown levels or even a smidge below that, however, then his value dramatically increases. His physical profile and athleticism is fantastic. He projects to be great in secondary actions with him rim pressure and he can make athletic plays all over the court. He has a good motor which should help him turn into a good and potentially very good defender (he has a lot of flaws on that end still but a lot of that seems something coaches can work on). I have him as a top 5 pick even though I don't expect a superstar even as a higher-end outcome and I do see a path for him not being a long-term starter. There's just a lot to work with in a non-primary role with the potential that he can expand into a more primary role (a second or at least third offensive option type of player) down the road.

Cody Williams – I've outed myself as a fan of Cody. A lot of that is the idea of who he can become, though. A tall and lanky wing who can create on the ball as a secondary ball handler and creator, and a plus defender. There are a lot of swing skills for him, though. Can he become a legitimately good shooter? Can he tighten up his handle enough to drive against NBA players consistently? Can he add enough muscle to his frame to play his game on both ends? All of that seems doable and if he hits all of that he can be an All-Star. But it's not a given either and only failing in one of the three categories will seriously limit what he can be. Top 5 pick, yes, but it's heavily betting on upside.

Buzelis – I'm more of a skeptic with him, too. What's his role at the next level? A shooting 4 that can put the ball on the floor a bit with potential as a help defender? My issue with him is that a) his size-athleticism combo doesn't seem great (he should be more athletic at his size, or have more size at his current athletic level), and b) he has not established himself as a good shooter. There's a clear path for him never ending up a starter on a playoff team, and I'm not sure the path towards being a franchise changing player is clear enough to have him close to the top of the draft despite this possibility. Is he worth a lottery pick? Sure. But I don't see a top 5 prospect.

Castle – I've been very high on Castle coming into the season and then cooled on him a lot. His complete reluctance to shoot over long stretches was and is a big concern. I have some hope that it's partially a confidence issue and some tweaks to his shot can turn him into a solid shooter. He needs a reliable midrange game and be able to punish defenses for going under screens if he wants to fulfill his potential. In that case, I can see him as a secondary creator in the NBA who also plays very good defense, especially with the ability to guard 1-3 on the ball. That would make him a very valuable player and long-term starter. With that being said, if he never develops into a comfortable shooter I don't see him being able to start games in the NBA for good playoff teams. It's too big of an obstacle to overcome for someone who doesn't have any other elite traits to compensate for that. I think a team towards the latter half of the top 10 may be able to talk themselves into drafting him in this draft.

Walter – I'm pretty out on Walter as a top prospect. His best ability is his shooting and I don't think it's elite. I expect him to turn into a reliable shooter down the road but that's not enough to vault him into the upper tier of prospects considering that he doesn't stand out in any other area. He's limited as a ball handler, has not shown much as a playmaker, doesn't have great athleticism, looks to have solid but not great size and on defense I think him being around average wouldn't be a bad outcome. Just a lot of concerns. What he has going for him is that he should be easy to plug and play on most teams and line-ups, so I'm confident he'll be a rotation player. But will he be the kind of rotation player that teams truly value and really want to keep long-term? I don't know. Right now, I think I'd have him outside the lottery.

Collier – He's an interesting kind of prospect. He does remind me of a Westbrook without the elite athleticism. How much is such a player worth? It's tough to say but there are legitimate concerns. I am intrigued by his ability to put pressure on defenses with his drives, I love his strength, and I do see clear playmaking upside with him. His shot also isn't broken (though obviously a swing skill for him). I don't see him as a PG though. Not yet at least (it would take a lot). And with his size and resulting defensive limitations, plus him not projecting to be an off-ball shooter, he's not an easy fit with a lot of teams. I do think he's most likely a 6th man on a good playoff team even if his skill-set translates reasonably well to the NBA. Still, if someone thinks that's worth a top 10 pick – hoping that he ends up being more than that but being fine if he's not – then I'd say that's far (even as I'm not sure yet if I'll have him there in the end).

Dillingham – I think Dillingham is a lot like Collier in that he's an elite driver who, however, lacks size and should be your primary creator on offense if he's to start. I trust him a bit more than Collier, though. His jumper is much further along and I see a greater chance that Dillingham becomes so good as a shot creator that he's worth playing in a primary offensive role (even as I see his defense as more problematic; if both play with effort, Collier should be clearly better). There's a good chance he also ends up as ‘only’ a 6th man type of player but he's electric enough as a driver, shot maker and shot creator that I'd bet on his upside over Collier's and pick him in the top 10.

Salaun – I haven't seen enough to form a strong opinion but I'm not super convinced that he's a great prospect yet.

Clingan – It's difficult to evaluate him. I like him and I think he's a bit more modern (though less dominant) compared to Edey. He's going to be a drop big in the league on defense but that's fine on a lot of teams as long as you don't necessarily expect him to play 32+ MPG. I wish he had better hands and a better touch around the rim, especially considering that he can't be projected to ever space the floor. At least he has shown some rudimentary passing ability that he can hopefully expand on. And, of course, there are injury concerns with him. I do believe he has a chance to be a starting Center in the league although I don't think he'll be a building block. Someone like Zubac, Poeltl or (dare I say it?) Ayton who can start and bring in rebounding and a paint presence but are not cornerstones of their respective teams. If he reaches that kind of status he's obviously worth a late lottery pick. It's clearly not a given, though, and the upside isn't all that enticing. Still, in this draft it might be enough for him to end up in the lottery.

Tyler Smith – I'm a fan of Tyler Smith. I think he has a decent chance at being a starting-level player although things still have to break right for him (in particular, his shot has to translate, he has to hold up on defense, and ideally he plays next to a skilled Center). In this draft, however, I think someone with his profile who could be a decent plug-and-play Forward who plays 25+ MPG in the NBA is worth a pick in the teens at least.

Sheppard – I've outed myself already as a big fan and have mentioned that he's in my top 5. I understand some of the concerns, I do. But I also believe his upside on offense is not appreciated enough by some and he just projects to be a player coaches will love and find minutes for (just as Coach Cal is very hesitant to take him off the court). There aren't many (any?) players in the draft that I can say the same about. I can see him being anything from high-level bench player (lower-end outcome) to high-level starter (higher-end outcome) – but I struggle to see him as much less than that.

Filipowski – I'm still not 100% sure where I land with Filipowski. But I do believe he's a clear lottery talent in this draft. His production is excellent and he has the modern offensive skillsets teams value in bigs these days. His defense will be key in determining what he can be in the NBA but I have enough faith in his size and activity on that end that I think he'll be playable, even if potentially (or even likely) below average. There's still a chance that he's a bench big (either due to defensive shortcomings and/or because he's only an unreliable shooter) but I can also see him as an offensive hub, or someone prominently featured in his team's offense, and that can certainly render him a valuable starter, too.

Knecht – I'll do a deeper dive on him soon and refrain from commenting until then.

Furphy – In a normal draft, I'd be more comfortable taking him in the 20s. In this draft, he's probably a talent that should go in the teens. There's a good chance that he's at least an NBA rotation player with his size (though I do worry about his lack of strength) and shooting ability in addition to him having a high motor. He could even warrant a late lottery pick.

McCain – I can't argue with his effectiveness but I struggle with his profile. I think he's a FRP but not sure how high I'm comfortable going with him not showing a ton as a playmaker in particular.

Missi – Not a big fan of bigs who cannot shoot, aren't good passers, and aren't really all that dominant in the paint on defense. Just tough to gauge the value here. He may be a starting Center if things break right but is he really much more valuable than some of the bigs you can pick up every year in FA even if his game translates well? Surely a FRP but once again, I'm not sure how high I can go with him.

Carrington – He may never amount to anything in the NBA but I see the intrigue of his profile and sure, in this draft I can definitely see some team talking themselves into drafting him fairly high hoping on him reaching his ceiling instead of falling out of the NBA. I wouldn't blame them.

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A couple names I'd like to throw out here:

Pelle Larsson – Yes, I'm the only person on this earth who is this high on him but I see him as a potential lottery talent. Not that I'd necessarily draft him there (you probably can trade down/out and still pick him up) but on a big board I'd struggle to have more than 14 players ahead of him. He projects to be an immediate role player who can shoot, pass, defend and drive at solid-to-good levels and he can play in a lot of different line-ups with his profile. I can see him as a high-level bench player or even a lower-end starter for years to come, and that's a pretty good floor to bank on in this draft.

Zvonimir Ivisic – I recently said he'd be toast in the NBA right now and part of me thinks he should return to college. But if he declares, I'd have him in the lottery. The talent and upside is there. Can he put it together? That's a good question and the answer may ultimately end up being ‘no’ – but some team in the lottery gamble on his upside.

Kevin McCullar – He had his shine for a while, then came the injury. I'm concerned what he'll end up being if he's going to be someone who can be left open on the perimeter, and that's definitely a possibility, but if he can shoot just enough teams will find minutes for him and therefore he's a clear FRP (and closer to the middle than the end) for me.

Zach Edey – I still struggle ranking him. I'm not as high as his most vocal fans, far from it, but I also do acknowledge the possibility that he's still a match-up problem even at the NBA level and that makes him a tough evaluation. I'd be much more comfortable if he had shown more flashes as a passer but as is, I struggle to envision a team running a ton of offense through him and that limits his value. I'm not sure he's a starter in that case (though it seems possible if he can adopt a more modern PnR style). Still, I currently have him as a FRP all things considered.

Mackenzie Mgbako – Not sure what to do with him and he might (should?) stay in college for another season, but I can definitely see teams with FRPs take a swing at him and his profile.

Hansen Yang – Just throwing his name out here. No idea what to make of him as a draft prospect. Is he intriguing or not even a prospect? I won't pretend to know but he looked interesting at least in the international games I watched.

Kyshawn George – I know he has his fans out there. I need to take a closer look at him still but of course someone with his profile will always get some eyes by teams in the first round. The question is: how high would someone pull the trigger if he were to declare?

A couple other players I'd like to hear people's opinions on:

– Ryan Dunn
– Izan Almansa
– Alex Karaban
– Kameron Jones
– Kwame Evans Jr.
– D.J. Wagner
– Antonio Reeves
– Justin Edwards
– Anton Watson
– Tyrese Proctor
– Jamir Watkins
– PJ Hall
– Baylor Scheiermann
– Jaylon Tyson
– Tyler Kolek
– Kylan Boswell
– Tristan da Silva
– Ajay Mitchell
– Terrence Shannon Jr.
– Dillon Jones

Which of these prospect intrigue you? Which ones would make your top 30?

For me it’s Dillon Jones. Top 50 in the NCAA in PPG, rebounds, assists, steals, and FTA/FTM. A below the rim athlete, but incredibly crafty at getting the ball in the basket. Uses both hands driving in the lane. Sees the floor extremely well for his size. Very high IQ player who uses skill to get his shots. The knocks on him are clearly athleticism and 3%. I would take him starting at pick 20. Shades of Shawn Marion to his game.

[76ciology]

My top 5 so far:
Risacher
Sheppard
Clingan
Knecht
Topic