Your Lottery Big Boards

[babyjax13]

I feel less confident in my board this year than I have in several, but this is my attempt (trying to use these same tiers year to year to get some comparability).

Castle will probably move up. I love big guards that can rebound and tend to overrated them but this may be too far the other way.

Big Board (plausible high-end outcomes)
Subject to change, have not seen everyone play multiple times yet

Tier 1 (future MVP candidate):
no one

Tier 2 (the franchise centerpiece):
no one

Tier 3 (the robin/centerpiece of a playoff team, but not a contender):
no one

Tier 4 (possible all-star/3rd best player on a contender):
1. Ron Holland

Tier 5 (maybe an all-star, probably a good starter):
2. Zaccharie Rissacher
3. Nikola Topic
4. Alexandre Sarr
5. Cody Williams
6. Matas Buzelis
7. Zvonimir Ivisic
8. Stephon Castle


Tier 6 (solid starter):
9. Ja'Kobe Walter
10. Johnny Furphy
11. Kyle Filipowski
12. Tyler Smith
13. Isaiah Collier
14. Tidjane Salaun
15. Reed Sheppard
16. Donovan Clingan
17. Rob Dillingham

[Colbinii]

I feel less confident in my board this year than I have in several, but this is my attempt (trying to use these same tiers year to year to get some comparability).

Castle will probably move up. I love big guards that can rebound and tend to overrated them but this may be too far the other way.

Big Board (plausible high-end outcomes)
Subject to change, have not seen everyone play yet

Tier 1 (future MVP candidate):
no one

Tier 2 (the franchise centerpiece):
no one

Tier 3 (the robin/centerpiece of a playoff team, but not a contender):
no one

Tier 4 (possible all-star/3rd best player on a contender):
1. Ron Holland

Tier 5 (maybe an all-star, probably a good starter):
2. Zaccharie Rissacher
3. Nikola Topic
4. Alexandre Sarr
5. Cody Williams
6. Matas Buzelis
7. Zvonimir Ivisic
8. Stephon Castle


Tier 6 (solid starter):
9. Ja'Kobe Walter
10. Johnny Furphy
11. Kyle Filipowski
12. Tyler Smith
13. Isaiah Collier
14. Tidjane Salaun
15. Reed Sheppard
16. Donovan Clingan
17. Rob Dillingham

I think you have too many tiers at the top. Otherwise you are going to end up with like 10 tiers in a draft.

What exactly is the difference between Tier 2 and Tier 3?

Kyrie Irving, by definition, was both of these. He was Tier 2 up until LeBron joined him in Cleveland in 2015 and then became Tier 3, but nothing about him changed.

What exactly is the difference between Tier 4 and Tier 5?

Your literal words are possible all-star and maybe an all-star

[babyjax13]

I feel less confident in my board this year than I have in several, but this is my attempt (trying to use these same tiers year to year to get some comparability).

Castle will probably move up. I love big guards that can rebound and tend to overrated them but this may be too far the other way.

Big Board (plausible high-end outcomes)
Subject to change, have not seen everyone play yet

Tier 1 (future MVP candidate):
no one

Tier 2 (the franchise centerpiece):
no one

Tier 3 (the robin/centerpiece of a playoff team, but not a contender):
no one

Tier 4 (possible all-star/3rd best player on a contender):
1. Ron Holland

Tier 5 (maybe an all-star, probably a good starter):
2. Zaccharie Rissacher
3. Nikola Topic
4. Alexandre Sarr
5. Cody Williams
6. Matas Buzelis
7. Zvonimir Ivisic
8. Stephon Castle


Tier 6 (solid starter):
9. Ja'Kobe Walter
10. Johnny Furphy
11. Kyle Filipowski
12. Tyler Smith
13. Isaiah Collier
14. Tidjane Salaun
15. Reed Sheppard
16. Donovan Clingan
17. Rob Dillingham

I think you have too many tiers at the top. Otherwise you are going to end up with like 10 tiers in a draft.

What exactly is the difference between Tier 2 and Tier 3?

Kyrie Irving, by definition, was both of these. He was Tier 2 up until LeBron joined him in Cleveland in 2015 and then became Tier 3, but nothing about him changed.

What exactly is the difference between Tier 4 and Tier 5?

Your literal words are possible all-star and maybe an all-star

I do have quite a few tiers and I think that's fine. It's not the most precise but it helps me organize my thoughts. I probably need new labels for 4 and 5, but 4 I see someone with the upside to be the third best player on a true contender with a relatively good chance at being an all star where the tier below I see guys who are likely just solid starters who maybe have a lucky year where players are injured so they make the all star game (e.g. Wiggins) or something highly contextual makes them an all star, like the perfect system (Korver), or a year with an abnormally shallow position in a conference (Magloire), or where they just very clearly outperform relative to the rest of their career (Jameer Nelson).

RE 2 and 3, the board says 'plausible high end upside', Kyrie, IMO has topped out in Tier 3. Here the distinction is between guys with the potential to lead a team to a championship if things break right, but who are unlikely to be MVPs (e.g., Booker fits here, IMO, where as the next Tier up would be Jokic, Giannis, prime LeBron, Tatum, the transcendent to almost transcendent guys). Tier 3 guys are not good enough to lead a team to the championship but could still take a team to the playoffs.

[eminence]

Couple of meaningful internationals I haven't seen enough so won't be listed here.

Tier 1 (MVP upside)

Tier 2 (All-NBA)

Tier 3 (Allstar)
Alexandre Sarr
Nikola Topic

Tier 4 (Good Starter)
Reed Sheppard
Cody Williams
Zaccharie Risacher
Matas Buzelis
Ja'Kobe Walter
Ron Holland
Rob Dillingham
Zach Edey (as boom/bust as they come)

Tier 5 (Low end Starter, good bench player)
Baylor Scheierman
Dalton Knect
Johni Broome
Kyle Filipowski
Kel'el Ware
Johnny Furphy
Kam Jones
Donovan Clingan
Stephon Castle
Dillon Jones
Tyler Kolek
DaRon Holmes II
Tyler Smith
Pelle Larsson
Blake Hinson
Jalen Bridges

Probably missing a guy or two I'd be fine with in Tier 5.

[The Moose]

My board is still pretty fluid, but I'm not sure the top 3 will change much for me

Tier 1 - [Superstar prospect]

Tier 2 - [All NBA prospect]

Tier 3 - [All star potential prospect]
1. Nikola Topic
2. Reed Sheppard
3. Donovan Clingan

Tier 4 - [starters/impact players]
4. Ron Holland
5. Kyle Filipowski
6. Zach Edey
7. Devin Carter
8. Collin Murray-Boyles (probably will be in 2025 class though)
9. Rob Dillingham
10. Dalton Knecht

Tier 5 - [rotation guys/guys that stick around the league] not ordered yet but will be trimmed down
Alex Sarr
Stephon Castle
Da’Ron Holmes
Matas Buzelis
Jared McCain
Cody Williams
Zac Risacher
Johnny Furphy
Hansen Yang
Kel’el Ware
Tyler Kolek
Ryan Dunn
Jonathan Mogbo
Isaiah Collier
Jamal Shead
Ja'Kobe Walter

[GoBobs]

Tier 1:multiple allstar
Edey

Tier 2:allstar potential but most are going to be busts
Sarr
Risacher
Cody Williams
Dillingham
Topic

Tier 3:rotation player
Filipowski
Reed Sheppard

[The-Power]

Spoiler:

Couple of meaningful internationals I haven't seen enough so won't be listed here.

Tier 1 (MVP upside)

Tier 2 (All-NBA)

Tier 3 (Allstar)
Alexandre Sarr
Nikola Topic

Tier 4 (Good Starter)
Reed Sheppard
Cody Williams
Zaccharie Risacher
Matas Buzelis
Ja'Kobe Walter
Ron Holland
Rob Dillingham
Zach Edey (as boom/bust as they come)

Tier 5 (Low end Starter, good bench player)
Baylor Scheierman
Dalton Knect
Johni Broome
Kyle Filipowski
Kel'el Ware
Johnny Furphy
Kam Jones
Donovan Clingan
Stephon Castle
Dillon Jones
Tyler Kolek
DaRon Holmes II
Tyler Smith
Pelle Larsson
Blake Hinson
Jalen Bridges

Probably missing a guy or two I'd be fine with in Tier 5.

Great to see your takes.

I love the Scheiermann and Kam Jones shout-outs. I can see both of them becoming NBA role players and I'd look at them with a SRP. And everyone who mentions Pelle Larsson has my appreciation.

A couple questions if you don't mind:

– Could you sell me a bit on Ja'Kobe Walter? I had him fairly high early on but the more I saw, the more concerns I had. In your tier-system I would have him Tier 5. Do you believe he's an elite shooter and that makes him a Tier 4 prospect, or do you see other things in his game that sets him apart from the Tier 5 prospects?

– Do you have a comparison for Sarr? Not necessarily in terms of who's the most like him, but what you expect him to become. Someone like current Evan Mobley? I'm not on the Sarr-is-an-All-Star train yet, but perhaps you could help me board it (I'd sure love to have another prospect to be somewhat excited about in this draft).

– You mention Zach Edey as a boom-or-bust prospect right beneath Dillingham. What's your take on the latter? Boom or bust as well? It wouldn't surprise me to see him turning into an All-Star and it wouldn't surprise me to see him being a microwave bench player. It's a bit harder for me to envision him landing somewhere in between these two outcomes. Is your ranking in Tier 4 (‘Good Starter’) reflecting that and therefore simply depicts the average outcome between Tier 3 and 5, or do you actually see his most likely outcome being a good starter?

[The-Power]

[...]
Tier 3 - [All star potential prospect]
...
3. Donovan Clingan
[...]

Could you sell me on Clingan? I can see him developing into a starting Center but lack the fantasy to picture him as an All-Star. If he had a better touch around the rim or better hands in general... maybe (still tough for me). But what makes you believe that he's more than a very limited offensive player (unless your case revolves around him becoming a Gobert-level defensive player and he doesn't need an offensive game to speak of).

edit: I'd also like to read your take on Carter who you seem to be much more sold on than I am.

[The Moose]

[...]
Tier 3 - [All star potential prospect]
...
3. Donovan Clingan
[...]

Could you sell me on Clingan? I can see him developing into a starting Center but lack the fantasy to picture him as an All-Star. If he had a better touch around the rim or better hands in general... maybe (still tough for me). But what makes you believe that he's more than a very limited offensive player (unless your case revolves around him becoming a Gobert-level defensive player and he doesn't need an offensive game to speak of).

edit: I'd also like to read your take on Carter who you seem to be much more sold on than I am.

The idea of Clingan having all star potential definitely does revolve around his defense. I think he can become an elite anchor, and is a legit game changer on that end, like Gobert-lite (he’s not as fluid as Rudy).
The numbers for UCONN with him on the court have been special the past two seasons, he makes a huge impact. Last year he was number 1 in adjusted team eff margin in the NCAA, this year he is still number 3, while playing a much bigger role, UCONN a top 10 defensive team both years he's been there, and weren't top 50 the year prior.

I think he can give you more offensively than Rudy offensively though. He’s a very good passer out of the high post and finds cutters really well. He rarely makes mistakes. 13% AST and only 8.8% TO rate, almost at 2:1 AST/TO ratio, he’s at 1.9.

Also, and this goes for the Carter ranking too, I value production very highly. I’ve come to believe it’s an important part of the risk reduction for drafting busts. As a general foundational rule, my opinion is that if a player does not have elite production in college (or overseas) they are unlikely to do so in the nba. The logic is basically that good players in the nba were very good in their prior league, and the best predictor of future success is past success. So, that knocks a few guys down for me who are much higher on consensus boards, and leaves less people to put in front of guys like Clingan and Carter. Of course there are exceptions, but I think people fall too in love with what the player could be compared with the reality of who they are. I think I actually read something similar from you earlier. And I can’t really argue against Clingan’s production for the past two seasons. He’s been elite BPM wise both years and all his metrics are outstanding.

I know it’s not a ‘sexy’ pick, and the current meta is to take centers later and take wings and guards early, but I’m still of the opinion I would rather take good centers before mediocre wings and guards, and this class has a lot of the latter imo.

As for Carter, he’s just too productive to have much lower for me. I made the mistake of having Podz lower than I wanted last year, and it kept me leaving him outside the top 10. I won’t make the same mistake for Carter this time. He's so solid across the board and on both sides of the ball

https://www.espn.com.au/nba/insider/story/_/id/39749249/nba-rookie-power-rankings-victor-wembanyama-reigns-supreme-chet-holmgren

Just as a reference, ESPN put this out today, the rookie power rankings up to this point in the season

1. Wemby
2. Chet
3. Lively
4. Podz
5. Jaquez/ Miller
6. Miller / Jaquez

Now, I would say it’s likely this list changes through the years etc (not the top 2), but this reinforces my current thinking. The top two were not in the NCAA last year, but Wemby was MVP of an overseas league at 18 and Chet had 14.1 BPM (5th highest all time for a freshman).

So Lively, Podz, Jaquez and Miller were all in the NCAA last year. Even if we do something as simplistic as simply ranking last years NCAA class by their BPM, you would get the following list.



So all four of these ESPN listed guys were in the top eight for the class BPM wise, and two others were seniors who are already role players on their teams (Sasser and TJD). Clark tore his achilles and hasn't played and Picket hasn't done much for the Nuggets. But still, I think you could make an argument that Lively/Podz/Jaquez/Miller/TJD/Sasser potentially make up 6 of the 8 non Wemby/Chet spots in the top 10 rookies this season.

So yeah, thats a general note on why some guys have a huge variance between my board and the consensus board, guys like Risacher/Sarr/Williams are penalised, guys like Sheppard, Clingan, Flip, Carter, CMB, Holmes II are pushed up

[FarBeyondDriven]

I just don't see it with Clingan. He's a foul magnet on the defensive end and he's a very limited offensive player. With average size and well below athleticism I can maybe see him being a starter but not a special one.

[The Moose]

I just don't see it with Clingan. He's a foul magnet on the defensive end and he's a very limited offensive player. With average size and well below athleticism I can maybe see him being a starter but not a special one.

He's 7'2/7'3 with a 7'7 wingspan and a 9'6 standing reach, and he's at 3.6 fouls/40mins this season, which is lower than Lively, Chet, JJJ, Duren and Kessler in recent drafts

His block/foul rate is actually pretty good compared to 1st round bigs in the past 10 or so years. Out of the 16 1st round picks in the last 10 years with a 10+BLK%, his foul rate would be 7th

[Colbinii]

I just don't see it with Clingan. He's a foul magnet on the defensive end and he's a very limited offensive player. With average size and well below athleticism I can maybe see him being a starter but not a special one.

He's 7'2/7'3 with a 7'7 wingspan and a 9'6 standing reach, and he's at 3.6 fouls/40mins this season, which is lower than Lively, Chet, JJJ, Duren and Kessler in recent drafts

His block/foul rate is actually pretty good compared to 1st round bigs in the past 10 or so years. Out of the 16 1st round picks in the last 10 years with a 10+BLK%, his foul rate would be 7th

I love when someone gives a blanket opinion with 0 statistical reasoning or rational and then the opinion is cut up by Don Diego de la Vega himself.

[JMAC3]

Couple of meaningful internationals I haven't seen enough so won't be listed here.

Tier 1 (MVP upside)

Tier 2 (All-NBA)

Tier 3 (Allstar)
Alexandre Sarr
Nikola Topic

I get the urge to have all these tiers showcasing the lack of top tier talent... but let's be honest. It is pretty foolish to have an MVP tier and All-NBA Tier.

In last 20 years we have had 12 MVPs, with half of them being picked outside the top 5 in the draft.
3 of which were #1/2 picks. It is just not really all that projectible.
You are going to be wrong a lot more than right including that tier in your analysis.

[Colbinii]

Couple of meaningful internationals I haven't seen enough so won't be listed here.

Tier 1 (MVP upside)

Tier 2 (All-NBA)

Tier 3 (Allstar)
Alexandre Sarr
Nikola Topic

I get the urge to have all these tiers showcasing the lack of top tier talent... but let's be honest. It is pretty foolish to have an MVP tier and All-NBA Tier.

In last 20 years we have had 12 MVPs, with half of them being picked outside the top 5 in the draft.
3 of which were #1/2 picks. It is just not really all that projectible.
You are going to be wrong a lot more than right including that tier in your analysis.

It says MVP upside.

Also, MVP caliber doesn't mean you win the MVP. There are far more players than 12 in the last 20 years who were MVP caliber.

[JMAC3]

Couple of meaningful internationals I haven't seen enough so won't be listed here.

Tier 1 (MVP upside)

Tier 2 (All-NBA)

Tier 3 (Allstar)
Alexandre Sarr
Nikola Topic

I get the urge to have all these tiers showcasing the lack of top tier talent... but let's be honest. It is pretty foolish to have an MVP tier and All-NBA Tier.

In last 20 years we have had 12 MVPs, with half of them being picked outside the top 5 in the draft.
3 of which were #1/2 picks. It is just not really all that projectible.
You are going to be wrong a lot more than right including that tier in your analysis.

It says MVP upside.

Also, MVP caliber doesn't mean you win the MVP. There are far more players than 12 in the last 20 years who were MVP caliber.

Not really though, pretty much everyone who has been in real consideration and didn't win in that time frame has won an MVP at another time. The best argument would be Kawhi, but again he is the 15th pick.

I feel pretty confident nobody had MVP potential as a label for Russ, Curry, Jokic, Giannis, Kawhi, Nash, Dirk...

Far more likely people would have incorrectly placed players like Cade, Zion into that unrealistic category and be wrong.

[Colbinii]

I get the urge to have all these tiers showcasing the lack of top tier talent... but let's be honest. It is pretty foolish to have an MVP tier and All-NBA Tier.

In last 20 years we have had 12 MVPs, with half of them being picked outside the top 5 in the draft.
3 of which were #1/2 picks. It is just not really all that projectible.
You are going to be wrong a lot more than right including that tier in your analysis.

It says MVP upside.

Also, MVP caliber doesn't mean you win the MVP. There are far more players than 12 in the last 20 years who were MVP caliber.

Not really though, pretty much everyone who has been in real consideration and didn't win in that time frame has won an MVP at another time. The best argument would be Kawhi, but again he is the 15th pick.

I feel pretty confident nobody had MVP potential as a label for Russ, Curry, Jokic, Giannis, Kawhi, Nash, Dirk...

Far more likely people would have incorrectly placed players like Cade, Zion into that unrealistic category and be wrong.

Umm, before Zion was out of shape he definitely had MVP Upside, very clearly if you actually watched him play in college.

Anthony Davis is another prospect who had MVP upside.

I wouldn't have put Cade into that conversation.

Some people had Luka pegged as MVP upside as a prospect.

Blake Griffin and John Wall could also be seen as such prospects entering the draft.

Greg Oden had MVP Upside as well.

[JMAC3]

It says MVP upside.

Also, MVP caliber doesn't mean you win the MVP. There are far more players than 12 in the last 20 years who were MVP caliber.

Not really though, pretty much everyone who has been in real consideration and didn't win in that time frame has won an MVP at another time. The best argument would be Kawhi, but again he is the 15th pick.

I feel pretty confident nobody had MVP potential as a label for Russ, Curry, Jokic, Giannis, Kawhi, Nash, Dirk...

Far more likely people would have incorrectly placed players like Cade, Zion into that unrealistic category and be wrong.

Umm, before Zion was out of shape he definitely had MVP Upside, very clearly if you actually watched him play in college.

Anthony Davis is another prospect who had MVP upside.

I wouldn't have put Cade into that conversation.

Some people had Luka pegged as MVP upside as a prospect.

Blake Griffin and John Wall could also be seen as such prospects entering the draft.

Greg Oden had MVP Upside as well.

You are proving my point though
So you would have been 0-6... maybe 1-5 if Luka wins one.

[Colbinii]

Not really though, pretty much everyone who has been in real consideration and didn't win in that time frame has won an MVP at another time. The best argument would be Kawhi, but again he is the 15th pick.

I feel pretty confident nobody had MVP potential as a label for Russ, Curry, Jokic, Giannis, Kawhi, Nash, Dirk...

Far more likely people would have incorrectly placed players like Cade, Zion into that unrealistic category and be wrong.

Umm, before Zion was out of shape he definitely had MVP Upside, very clearly if you actually watched him play in college.

Anthony Davis is another prospect who had MVP upside.

I wouldn't have put Cade into that conversation.

Some people had Luka pegged as MVP upside as a prospect.

Blake Griffin and John Wall could also be seen as such prospects entering the draft.

Greg Oden had MVP Upside as well.

You are proving my point though
So you would have been 0-6... maybe 1-5 if Luka wins one.

Yeah, it's a special tier, but what is your point of this discussion?

Why don't you call out the person who has 10 tiers and 3 of them basically the same?

[JMAC3]

Umm, before Zion was out of shape he definitely had MVP Upside, very clearly if you actually watched him play in college.

Anthony Davis is another prospect who had MVP upside.

I wouldn't have put Cade into that conversation.

Some people had Luka pegged as MVP upside as a prospect.

Blake Griffin and John Wall could also be seen as such prospects entering the draft.

Greg Oden had MVP Upside as well.

You are proving my point though
So you would have been 0-6... maybe 1-5 if Luka wins one.

Yeah, it's a special tier, but what is your point of this discussion?

Why don't you call out the person who has 10 tiers and 3 of them basically the same?

I am not calling out anyone lol, I am simply putting a numbers driven opinion up for debate.

[eminence]

Most MVP level guys do win an MVP eventually, I agree there. Kawhi/Wade the notable exceptions recently imo.

Not every player will hit their potential, shouldn't need saying.

But I don't find the miss rate there any more notable than at any other level.

Noting - guys I've put in the MVP tier since starting those tiers, not far enough along to call any of them one way or the other (though obviously Victor looks more on pace than JJJ):
Victor
Cade
Zion
Doncic
JJJ