2009 Class = One of the weakest in recent history?

[Cammo101]

I'm not blindly dismissing seniors as a class, you may remember I was extremely high on Jameer, Granger, and Roy. I am saying though, that the knock on seniors as by and large inferior prospects is justifiable and quantifiable.

[corwin]

IMO most of the seniors will be lucky to make the league, there are few foreign players & the number of freshmen will probably be 5 or fewer (& those aren't ready). I'd call that a weak draft.

Yeah, I have to agree, because only freshman's and foreigners are good and become stars in the NBA, and seniors, why are they even alive?

Thanks for the thoughtful response. Here's a list of this year's top 10 seniors from NBADraft.net.
D. Collison
T. Williams
E. Maynor
T. Hansbrough
Sam Young
M. Thornton
J. McNeal
Lee Cummard ?
A.J. Price &
Wes Mathews

Pretty decent college players but it looks to me like about a half dozen rotation guys at the next level. Probably in the end several will become borderline starters & maybe all will stick but this is not too impressive of a group of players.

[Cammo101]

Collison, Williams, and Maynor are the only 3 players on that list that are 1st round talent. 3 or 4 other guys with a chance to be nice role guys. I would add Toney Douglas and Jermaine Taylor to that listover Mathews and Cummard.

[Zeitgeister]

I'm not blindly dismissing seniors as a class, you may remember I was extremely high on Jameer, Granger, and Roy. I am saying though, that the knock on seniors as by and large inferior prospects is justifiable and quantifiable.

Exactly, and there is a reason why those prospects typically stayed all four years. It's because for the most part they weren't projected to be high picks in the lottery.

[Cammo101]

I'm not blindly dismissing seniors as a class, you may remember I was extremely high on Jameer, Granger, and Roy. I am saying though, that the knock on seniors as by and large inferior prospects is justifiable and quantifiable.

Exactly, and there is a reason why those prospects typically stayed all four years. It's because for the most part they weren't projected to be high picks in the lottery.

Yep. Tends to mostly be guys who are limited in some capacity, along with the occasional late bloomer.

[jman3134]

How can we evaluate this draft class on the potential underclassmen declaring when this has not happened yet? I think what the focus is on currently (when saying a draft class will be weak) is whether or not the college players at this current time have relatively high potential compared to previous draft classes. Still, it's kind of ridiculous to make that leap at this point in time. (prior to the tournament)

[jgustav1]

Jeff Pendergraph belongs on the list of top seniors.

[Smills91]

IMO most of the seniors will be lucky to make the league, there are few foreign players & the number of freshmen will probably be 5 or fewer (& those aren't ready). I'd call that a weak draft.

Yeah, I have to agree, because only freshman's and foreigners are good and become stars in the NBA, and seniors, why are they even alive?

Seniors tend to have a pretty high bust rate and tend to turn out less impact players than the underclassmen that are drafted. Here is a list of all the seniors taken in the 1st round over the last 5 years. There are very few impact players on this list and a ton of busts...


jason thompson
roy hibbert
courtney lee
dj white
jr giddens
acie law
al thronton
jared dudley
morris almond
aaron brooks
alando tucker
shelden williams
brandon roy
randy foye
jj redick
hilton armstrong
rodney carney
maurice ager
mardy collins
channing frye
joey graham
danny granger
hakim warrick
julius hodge
luther head
jason maxiell
wayne simien
david lee
rafael araujo
luke jackson
jameer nelson
tony allen

That's a pretty good success rate, in FACT, I'd venture to say(without even having looked into it, that that percentage of players > the percentage of any other class between freshmen, sophomores and juniors. I bolded all those that seem to be solid role players to franchise guys.

[gswhoops]

Seniors tend to have a pretty high bust rate and tend to turn out less impact players than the underclassmen that are drafted. Here is a list of all the seniors taken in the 1st round over the last 5 years. There are very few impact players on this list and a ton of busts...


jason thompson
roy hibbert
courtney lee
dj white
jr giddens
acie law
al thronton
jared dudley
morris almond
aaron brooks
alando tucker
shelden williams
brandon roy
randy foye
jj redick
hilton armstrong
rodney carney
maurice ager
mardy collins
channing frye
joey graham
danny granger
hakim warrick
julius hodge
luther head
jason maxiell
wayne simien
david lee
rafael araujo
luke jackson
jameer nelson
tony allen

That's a pretty good success rate, in FACT, I'd venture to say(without even having looked into it, that that percentage of players > the percentage of any other class between freshmen, sophomores and juniors. I bolded all those that seem to be solid role players to franchise guys.

I agree with the guys you've bolded. That gives the senior class roughly a 53% "success rate" (17/32 are at least solid NBA players). Now, the freshmen:

Derrick Rose
Michael Beasley
OJ Mayo
Kevin Love
Eric Gordon
Jerryd Bayless
Anthony Randolph
JJ Hickson
Kosta Koufos
Donte Greene
Greg Oden
Kevin Durant
Mike Conley
Brandan Wright
Spencer Hawes
Thaddeus Young
Javaris Crittenton
Daequan Cook
Tyrus Thomas
Shawne Williams
Marvin Williams
Luol Deng
Kris Humphries

Out of the 23 freshmen drafted 1st round in the last 5 years, 16 look like they'll be at least solid role players, giving their class a 69% "success rate." I'd say that's a pretty substantial advantage in favor of the freshmen.

[Jonathan Watters]

This has been proven. Read any of the accepted historical research done on the draft, anything at all.

There is a 100% consensus that freshmen/high schoolers are by far the best value in the draft if you are going to compare things by class. It really isn't even close. This is as close to fact as one can get when discussing the history of the draft.

If you don't like it, come up with something - anything - that says otherwise.

And no, I'm not going to post a link to any of the research. If you are having this argument on this message board, you know exactly where to look and should have done so 2 years ago when the numbers were coming out.

So do everybody a favor and look so this thread doesn't have to get any stupider than it already is.

[Smills91]

I know you'll hate me and disagree with me, but I just can't legitimately put Anthony Randolph nor Mike Conley there, YET.

That'd drop the number down by two and bring it a lot closer to the Senior rate. I don;'t think it's a substantiated difference. But it is close, and I am surprised by the freshman good turnout so far.

[gswhoops]

I know you'll hate me and disagree with me, but I just can't legitimately put Anthony Randolph nor Mike Conley there, YET.

That'd drop the number down by two and bring it a lot closer to the Senior rate. I don;'t think it's a substantiated difference. But it is close, and I am surprised by the freshman good turnout so far.

Fair enough. Since the barometer we're going by is role player or better I included them, I guess it's all a matter of how you judge the recent freshman classes.

[jman3134]

This has been proven. Read any of the accepted historical research done on the draft, anything at all.

There is a 100% consensus that freshmen/high schoolers are by far the best value in the draft if you are going to compare things by class. It really isn't even close. This is as close to fact as one can get when discussing the history of the draft.

If you don't like it, come up with something - anything - that says otherwise.

And no, I'm not going to post a link to any of the research. If you are having this argument on this message board, you know exactly where to look and should have done so 2 years ago when the numbers were coming out.

So do everybody a favor and look so this thread doesn't have to get any stupider than it already is.

While you are correct about the statistical consensus on high schoolers/freshman, do you believe intrinsically that this makes the 2009 draft worse? In essence, do you feel that because this is a senior laden draft class, it is inherently worse than previous years? Or do you apply the wait and see policy, keeping in mind previous statistical data collected on the subject?

[Jonathan Watters]

I think this is one of the weakest drafts in recent history. Could I be wrong? Sure. Will I be wrong? I doubt it.

[corwin]

Collison, Williams, and Maynor are the only 3 players on that list that are 1st round talent. 3 or 4 other guys with a chance to be nice role guys. I would add Toney Douglas and Jermaine Taylor to that listover Mathews and Cummard.

Can't disagree with any of this. I happen to like Sam Young & feel that he could be one of the role players but there's not much else there.

[jman3134]

I think this is one of the weakest drafts in recent history. Could I be wrong? Sure. Will I be wrong? I doubt it.

I'm asking how you arrived at this conclusion- was it by using statistics or the eye measure (for overall level of talent in college basketball)?

[Cammo101]

I think this is one of the weakest drafts in recent history. Could I be wrong? Sure. Will I be wrong? I doubt it.

I'm asking how you arrived at this conclusion- was it by using statistics or the eye measure (for overall level of talent in college basketball)?

It is all of this. You have to ask yourself where some of these top guys would go in other drafts. And the almost universal answer is lower than in this draft.

[vincecarter4pres]

I think it's pretty obvious this draft won't be as good as last year's, but when will a draft be that good again?
I still think this draft has a lot of potential and there are a lot of guys being written off as role players for their ceilings for no legitimate reason other then the hype machine and pure ignorance.

[Jonathan Watters]

I think this is one of the weakest drafts in recent history. Could I be wrong? Sure. Will I be wrong? I doubt it.

I'm asking how you arrived at this conclusion- was it by using statistics or the eye measure (for overall level of talent in college basketball)?

It is all of this. You have to ask yourself where some of these top guys would go in other drafts. And the almost universal answer is lower than in this draft.

I can't really add anything more than this. Statistically, the prospects in this draft don't hold a candle to those in last year's draft. Start doing some simple eyeballing of where guys went in last year's draft and where you think they might rank in this year's (and vice versa) - it becomes pretty obvious very quickly.