NBA Expansion- Discussion

[Cactus Jack]

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[Otis Driftwood]

New legends to come…

[Det the Threat]

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No surprise here given the arena issue finally being solved and the players involved with that Seattle group.

Though, if itÄs true they'd have to announce it pretty soon, IMO.

[DoItALL9]

They're supposed to make an announcement regarding expansion this summer.


I wonder what's the fastest an expansion franchise could have their opening game, 2024-2025 season?

Is there a legit reason it couldn't be 2023-2024?

Who would be mad if they rushed it for the 2022-2023 season?

[Cactus Jack]

They're supposed to make an announcement regarding expansion this summer.


I wonder what's the fastest an expansion would their opening game, 2024-2025 season?

Is there a legit reason it couldn't be 2023-2024?

Who would be mad if they rushed it for the 2022-2023 season?

No one really knows. It's just speculation at this point. There have been differing reports on a possible timeline for it.

There was a report last year this time that came out saying they would vote on it this Summer (2022). But it hasn't been confirmed.

This report hints an announcement will come likely in 2024 (post television agreement).


Tim Leiweke & the Seattle group has been very hush. Not giving specifics.

The recent announcement of Leiweke’s $3 billion Vegas project has kind of flamed the fire.

[DoItALL9]

I saw something saying it might be in the owners best interest to vote on the expansion now before the next CBA arrives and the players want a cut of that revenue.


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[Dick Tate]

Adam Silver debunking: https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-expansion-2024-adam-silver-170029955.html

Asked directly about expansion after the 2024 season before Game 1 of the Finals, Silver was clear.

“That talk is not true,” Silver said. “At least maybe there are people talking who are not at the league office about us potentially expanding after the 2024 season. We are not discussing that at this time.

“As I said before, at some point, this league invariably will expand, but it’s not at this moment that we are discussing it.”

When NBA arenas were empty during the height of the pandemic — and NBA owners were losing money — expansion talk picked up real momentum. With expansion fees at $2.5 billion per team (or higher), expansion of two teams would mean a check of at least $166 million per team, which had appeal at the time.

However, that momentum appears to have slowed. Silver doesn’t make the final call on expansion, it requires a two-thirds vote of the NBA owners, who could take the topic up again this summer. Howver, with fans back in arenas and money flowing again, sources have told NBC Sports enough owners don’t want to further divide the revenue pie that the votes for expansion may not be there.

So... about those Blazers...

[Dick Tate]

I'm starting my conspiracy theory that the reason Phil Knight jumped the gun with his offer is because he knows there might be behind the scenes shenanigans underway to get the team moved to Seattle.

Up next: Trade Lillard for future draft picks to minimize fan backlash when the sale is announced.

[Cactus Jack]

I'm starting my conspiracy theory that the reason Phil Knight jumped the gun with his offer is because he knows there might be behind the scenes shenanigans underway to get the team to Seattle.

The Blazers aren't moving here. I know you're likely being somewhat sarcastic. But, I'm not sure what more could be said.

[Dick Tate]

Somewhat sarcastic, yes.

The Seattle group had no plans to buy & move an existing team.

with fans back in arenas and money flowing again, sources have told NBC Sports enough owners don’t want to further divide the revenue pie that the votes for expansion may not be there.

Could it be the owners are worried the players are going to get too much of the pie in the next CBA? If these sources are accurate and expansion is now no longer on the horizon, contingencies could be made.

[DoItALL9]

Update

Commissioner Adam Silver said any talk that the league is targeting Seattle and Las Vegas for expansion in '24 “is not true,” according to Tim Reynolds of the AP. Silver said that it is "no secret” that the league “will eventually expand past its current 30 teams.” But diluting player talent “remains a major impediment toward expansion.” 

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[Dick Tate]

Update

Commissioner Adam Silver said any talk that the league is targeting Seattle and Las Vegas for expansion in '24 “is not true,” according to Tim Reynolds of the AP. Silver said that it is "no secret” that the league “will eventually expand past its current 30 teams.” But diluting player talent “remains a major impediment toward expansion.” 

The NBC Sports sources in the other thread said it was a diluting the revenue pie issue. I guess they're pulling out all of the old hits now.

“Expansion does create a certain amount of dilution,” Silver said. “And even sort of adding another 30 players or so that are roughly comparable, there still are only so many of the truly top-tier super talents to go around. That is something on the mind of the other teams as we think about expansion.”

It's interesting timing for Silver to say this. With all of the injuries and missed time due to Covid protocols the past couple of seasons, it showed a fairly wide disparity of talent between the top and bottom of rosters.

[DoItALL9]

What's the best counter to Texas Chuck's comment below:

"We aren't getting more teams. Cuban already spelled out what expansion actually is--nothing but a short-term loan to the existing franchises with a huge back end loss. New Markets can't generate 1/16th of the existing NBA revenue required just to break even. Not even close. So the existing governors aren't going to vote for this.

If Seattle and Vegas get teams it will be existing teams moving there. Adding franchises is a money losing proposition for the existing teams and they know it even if fans don't understand the franchise fees are quickly given back by the additional revenue split."

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[Cactus Jack]

What's the best counter to Texas Chuck's comment below:

"We aren't getting more teams. Cuban already spelled out what expansion actually is--nothing but a short-term loan to the existing franchises with a huge back end loss. New Markets can't generate 1/16th of the existing NBA revenue required just to break even. Not even close. So the existing governors aren't going to vote for this.

If Seattle and Vegas get teams it will be existing teams moving there. Adding franchises is a money losing proposition for the existing teams and they know it even if fans don't understand the franchise fees are quickly given back by the additional revenue split."

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Simply money.

Assuming the numbers blow them out of the water. We're talking north of $6-7 Billion that the owners can potentially make on this. At a certain point the financial upside will be too great. Especially for those owners & teams that came up short during the pandemic. It will be a huge financial windfall for them.

[DoItALL9]

What's the best counter to Texas Chuck's comment below:

"We aren't getting more teams. Cuban already spelled out what expansion actually is--nothing but a short-term loan to the existing franchises with a huge back end loss. New Markets can't generate 1/16th of the existing NBA revenue required just to break even. Not even close. So the existing governors aren't going to vote for this.

If Seattle and Vegas get teams it will be existing teams moving there. Adding franchises is a money losing proposition for the existing teams and they know it even if fans don't understand the franchise fees are quickly given back by the additional revenue split."

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Simply money.

Assuming the numbers blow them out of the water. We're talking north of $6-7 Billion that the owners can potentially make on this. At a certain point the financial upside will be too great. Especially for those owners & teams that came up short during the pandemic. It will be a huge financial windfall for them.

The expansion fees at $7 billion per franchise seems like something they wouldn't/couldn't turn down.

Rumors are the NBA wants triple the current deal. They want something similar to what the NFL got with their last contract. The better the TV deal the more likely Cuban's line of thinking regarding expansion will permeate thru the minds of all the owners/governors.

They need a 2/3 vote to approve expansion I believe.

[DoItALL9]

Losing Paul Allen might have hurt a little as someone who seems like they would've voted in favor

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[Cactus Jack]

Losing Paul Allen might have hurt a little as someone who seems like they would've voted in favor

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Having a team in Seattle is beneficial for Portland. Any new owner would vote in favor of it. Certainly that applies to Jody Allen as well.

[DoItALL9]

If a team governor decided they wanted to move a franchise to Seattle I believe a vote on it by the other 29 owners might be closer than one might think.

The relocation fee could probably be a pretty astronomical amount. A billion dollars or more could go a long way to convince governors. It wouldn't be a "loan" because you wouldn't be further dividing the TV revenue pie.

[Dick Tate]

Conspiracy theory (continued):
GP II signs with the Blazers.

[DoItALL9]

Expansion likely won't even be voted on for a few years at the minimum.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nba.nbcsports.com/2022/06/11/report-dont-expect-nba-expansion-talk-until-after-new-cba-tv-deal-in-place/amp/

Relocation looks like the only possibility for the next few years.