[BLOG] SoTD: Bargnani and free throws

[itbobby007]

Inception stay on topic. If you have an issue, use the feedback forum to voice your concerns. Tks.

[HomieOmey]

With Calderon basically ignoring Bargnani in the post the last few seasons and seeing very few plays called for Bargnani (or even rarely seeing teammates actively looking to get him going), I find it hard to judge Bargs as a free throw attractor. I expect him to get to the line a lot more frequently trhis season, but I still doubt he'll be close to a Mags/Bosh level.

[Scott Carefoot]

Could part of it be that Bargnani avoids contact rather than seeking it out when he drives? Somebody needs to teach him how to yell "AND 1!" in Italian every time he takes it to the hole.

[Gold Chain]

Because Supersub has been here for ages and hes always done the SOTD threads.

+1.

He's really good at this sort of thing.

[J-Roc]

Because Supersub has been here for ages and hes always done the SOTD threads.

+1.

He's really good at this sort of thing.

Soon SOTD thread will be insider threads you'll have to pay for. SS needs to get a hold of Hadi.

[RocLaFamilia]

Umm I am glad you used stats to figure this out SS15, but those who have supported Bargs (or not hated on him) were saying the exact same things for years...

BTW didn't know you had your own site.

I may forgive him his offensive sins, but I still can't reconcile with the fact that he's been terrible defensively. Hopefully, he proves me wrong on that end as well.

Bargs will be an offensive threat. And I think he has the skills to be a decent defensive Big, its just his awareness of whats going on is pretty low. We seen him grab boards, block shots and d up on the post, we all know he is capable. Problem is in different situations he doesn't know where he should be, or when to foul, when to leave his man to help, etc. His knowledge on the defensive side is very poor. I think the biggest jump he had was with JO, and he seems like the type of guy to teach him the intangibles.

But anyways I am hoping this year will settle the Bargs Nuthugger vs. the Bashers battle, there are no excuses left for either side.

[BorisDK1]

Also, not to derail...but I wish more of the good posters here (SS, Dr Mufasa, LocalNGIdiot, BorisDK1, others) had blogs. Too much good stuff gets lost on page 27 of some random RealGM post...would be nice if the best content were more widely visible.

I feel rather honoured to be included in that list! Thank you, Ripp. I do have a blog, mostly dealing with tactical and strategic issues and frankly I don't have the time for it. My last post was several months ago. But honestly, I work full-time, I'm a student (4 courses load starting back at it Monday at U of Waterloo), I'm married, I'm the coach of a small college team which can't field a team right now due to being stuck in administrative limbo...the time for blogging just isn't there.

Maybe in two or three years, God willing, we'd get some high-end collaborative thing going. Like TrueHoop, but on quality steroids.

[Raconteur]

Good read. Thanks for sharing... however, stats aside, at the end of the day Andrea just doesn't take kindly to brutish muscular men pounding his adonis like body. It is a temple built for supermodels and supermodels alone. That's just how he rolls. This is the only explanation for his excellent free throw percentage.

[Indeed]

Is this from Synergy? What happened on the 1350-511=839 plays where he wasn't used as a decoy?

Don't forget that PLAYS does not equal FGA. So, in actuality, it's more like 47% of his FGA were spot-up shots. The rest were P&R, some isolation (130 plays), etc. But the thing is, he was effective on those spot-up shots with points per play (PPP) of 1.1 (58th in the entire league). Meantime, his isolation plays produced only 0.80 PPP, so we still have to see if he can produce better with more plays.

Err...130 iso plays is a lot, no? And .8 PPP is very low, no? Like, if he isn't very productive on non-spotup plays, that is a very bad sign, isn't it?

130 iso plays = less than 2 iso plays per game, no? 0.8 PPP might be low, but on a small sample size?

Anyway, don't think he will improve much on FTA, but my hope for FTA is on DeRozan. Our offense won't be as good as with Bosh and Hedo, and (much) more pick and roll this year.
Defensively, I am expecting him to be better, able to read the floor on the defensive end, instead of just his man.

[Ducksplatt]

Good post. I am interested to also see what will happen if Bargs is the #1 option (also, what will happen to Bosh as the 3rd option). I am hoping Triano will increase his touches. Not only for scoring, but would like to see more of his passing if defenses start collapsing on him. IMO, this is the make of break year for the former #1 pick.

BTW - SS, thanks for posting your blog. I am adding that to my Google Reader.

[Ripp]

130 iso plays = less than 2 iso plays per game, no? 0.8 PPP might be low, but on a small sample size?

Anyway, don't think he will improve much on FTA, but my hope for FTA is on DeRozan. Our offense won't be as good as with Bosh and Hedo, and (much) more pick and roll this year.
Defensively, I am expecting him to be better, able to read the floor on the defensive end, instead of just his man.

130 is a lot of plays, man....a guy who is a 90% FT shooter is very, very, very unlikely to shoot 40% on his first 130 FTs.

Anyway, this is pretty consistent with the data on hoopdata.com we discussed a few days ago....helps clear up the confusion I had. I guess he simply isn't a very good iso scorer

[Ripp]

Also, not to derail...but I wish more of the good posters here (SS, Dr Mufasa, LocalNGIdiot, BorisDK1, others) had blogs. Too much good stuff gets lost on page 27 of some random RealGM post...would be nice if the best content were more widely visible.

I feel rather honoured to be included in that list! Thank you, Ripp. I do have a blog, mostly dealing with tactical and strategic issues and frankly I don't have the time for it. My last post was several months ago. But honestly, I work full-time, I'm a student (4 courses load starting back at it Monday at U of Waterloo), I'm married, I'm the coach of a small college team which can't field a team right now due to being stuck in administrative limbo...the time for blogging just isn't there.

Maybe in two or three years, God willing, we'd get some high-end collaborative thing going. Like TrueHoop, but on quality steroids.

Heh, sounds good. Good luck with school and your endeavors...sounds like a full plate.

[BorisDK1]

Heh, sounds good. Good luck with school and your endeavors...sounds like a full plate.

That doesn't even account for the fact that I am the chef de cuisine in our house most of the week, and I have to finish the fence we put up last year. Being a homeowner's a neverending chore as well...

Yeah, blogging just isn't on the menu right now. I'd prefer to invest time in it when my schedule's clearer and I can enjoy it.

[Indeed]

130 iso plays = less than 2 iso plays per game, no? 0.8 PPP might be low, but on a small sample size?

Anyway, don't think he will improve much on FTA, but my hope for FTA is on DeRozan. Our offense won't be as good as with Bosh and Hedo, and (much) more pick and roll this year.
Defensively, I am expecting him to be better, able to read the floor on the defensive end, instead of just his man.

130 is a lot of plays, man....a guy who is a 90% FT shooter is very, very, very unlikely to shoot 40% on his first 130 FTs.

Anyway, this is pretty consistent with the data on hoopdata.com we discussed a few days ago....helps clear up the confusion I had. I guess he simply isn't a very good iso scorer

Not sure what you mean, but 130 iso plays is very different than 130 FTs.
130 FTs have all the same scenario. You stand on the line, shoot the ball. No matter which team you go against, your FT% will be the same.
But 130 iso plays have different opponents, you start in different position, you finish in different position. Unless all iso play is just dribble and beat the guy with the same speed. However, opposing teams change their strategies and defender, so you have to be creative and with lots of weapons all the time.

I completely disagree with your comparison, and I am very disappointed with your comparison, if you put some logic into it, you won't compare someone with FT% vs FG%, right?

[djsunyc]

completely new role for bargnani. he's another year older. and the team is drastically different. let's see how it all plays out.

[Ripp]

130 iso plays = less than 2 iso plays per game, no? 0.8 PPP might be low, but on a small sample size?

Anyway, don't think he will improve much on FTA, but my hope for FTA is on DeRozan. Our offense won't be as good as with Bosh and Hedo, and (much) more pick and roll this year.
Defensively, I am expecting him to be better, able to read the floor on the defensive end, instead of just his man.

130 is a lot of plays, man....a guy who is a 90% FT shooter is very, very, very unlikely to shoot 40% on his first 130 FTs.

Anyway, this is pretty consistent with the data on hoopdata.com we discussed a few days ago....helps clear up the confusion I had. I guess he simply isn't a very good iso scorer

Not sure what you mean, but 130 iso plays is very different than 130 FTs.
130 FTs have all the same scenario. You stand on the line, shoot the ball. No matter which team you go against, your FT% will be the same.
But 130 iso plays have different opponents, you start in different position, you finish in different position. Unless all iso play is just dribble and beat the guy with the same speed. However, opposing teams change their strategies and defender, so you have to be creative and with lots of weapons all the time.

I completely disagree with your comparison, and I am very disappointed with your comparison, if you put some logic into it, you won't compare someone with FT% vs FG%, right?

I actually think it is legitimate. If we look at 3 pointers, you'd probably not quibble as much. We can then break down in FG% from different spots on the floor.

Look, ultimately if you aren't producing on the iso opportunities you do have, then what reason do I have to believe that you'll start producing later? .8 PPP is absolutely terrible...I'm sure if supersub15 posted the rank, it would be one of the worst in the league.

[Indeed]

130 is a lot of plays, man....a guy who is a 90% FT shooter is very, very, very unlikely to shoot 40% on his first 130 FTs.

Anyway, this is pretty consistent with the data on hoopdata.com we discussed a few days ago....helps clear up the confusion I had. I guess he simply isn't a very good iso scorer

Not sure what you mean, but 130 iso plays is very different than 130 FTs.
130 FTs have all the same scenario. You stand on the line, shoot the ball. No matter which team you go against, your FT% will be the same.
But 130 iso plays have different opponents, you start in different position, you finish in different position. Unless all iso play is just dribble and beat the guy with the same speed. However, opposing teams change their strategies and defender, so you have to be creative and with lots of weapons all the time.

I completely disagree with your comparison, and I am very disappointed with your comparison, if you put some logic into it, you won't compare someone with FT% vs FG%, right?

I actually think it is legitimate. If we look at 3 pointers, you'd probably not quibble as much. We can then break down in FG% from different spots on the floor.

Look, ultimately if you aren't producing on the iso opportunities you do have, then what reason do I have to believe that you'll start producing later? .8 PPP is absolutely terrible...I'm sure if supersub15 posted the rank, it would be one of the worst in the league.

If you say 3 pointers, that would make more sense than free throw, but is 3 pointers qualify as a category? I would think 3 pointers is under isolation, spot up, corner 3 and etc, instead of having its own category.
The reason why I think it this way is, you are comparing free throw (an action) or 3 pointers (an action) with isolation (a strategy), which is like compare apple and orange. Just like previously argued using team stats to determine an individual stats, which is flawed in a statistic way of comparison.
At some point, I appreciate the way you learn things, try to understand different stuff, but you need to understand comparing 2 things, you need to have the same base. You can't compare currency and say some where cost $4.99 and other cost $5.99, which $4.99 is cheaper. You need to convert them into the same base in order to make those comparison. Isolation (a strategy) is different than free throw (an action) or perhaps 3 pointers (an action).

And to me, by just looking at 0.8 PPP and determine someone "absolutely ...", wouldn't that be a little biased or naive? Have you count into shot clock consideration? Have you look at what included as isolation (is post up part of it?)? 1.5 isolation per game is a very small sample, and I believe it doesn't include post up. I could be wrong, maybe SS can correct me.

[Ripp]

Well, I think we all agree that .8 PPP is terrible....the question then becomes why. Your point is that we shouldn't infer from this that Bargnani is a bad iso scorer...maybe for some reason the 130 iso situations are misleading in some way. Perhaps too small a sample size, or biased in some way (maybe all late shotclock isos, isos in spots he'd prefer not to iso from, some sort of error by Synergy, etc.)

You are right, it is certainly possible that he is in fact a good or average iso scorer, and these other explanations are why his numbers are so bad (though I would like to point out that the biases could very, very easily be IN his favor...maybe his true ability is even worse than that .8 indicates..we are only assuming that the errors hurt him, not help him.)

I'm not claiming I know for sure why the number is so low...all I can say is that it is very low.

[notskeebs]

I don't know why the sun goes down, but it does. So I am going to infer that the sun has weak stamina and can't play more than ~12 hours.

You can't make claims on a player when you can't even say why something happens only that you observe it happening. That's the problem in today's (and every day till today) world.

Some people just want to use a square peg in a round hole and claim it works cause the peg is small enough to fit but rattles around cause it's not meant to fit.

[Reignman]

I don't know why the sun goes down, but it does. So I am going to infer that the sun has weak stamina and can't play more than ~12 hours.

You can't make claims on a player when you can't even say why something happens only that you observe it happening. That's the problem in today's (and every day till today) world.

Some people just want to use a square peg in a round hole and claim it works cause the peg is small enough to fit but rattles around cause it's not meant to fit.

Actually, you should've learnt that in elementary school. Just cuz you don't understand something don't assume that others don't as well (talking about basketball).