SpezNc wrote:Scase wrote:SpezNc wrote:
Agree. Toronto is unlucky.
25 wins normally should give you more than 32%-44% odds or keeping the pick
You told me at the beginning of seasons that we would have 23 wins with 8 games left and I would assume keeping our pick would be in the bank…
The plus side is there is argument in favour of conveying the pick. Does not flip the balance for me but if the lottery is against us, the only thing to do is turn the page and assume it’s for the best.
Based on current win percentage:
2022 we'd have been 4th
2021 we'd have been 5th
2020 we'd have been 5th
2019 we'd have been 5th
2018 we'd have been 4th
2017 we'd have been 6th
2016 we'd have been 3rd
2015 we'd have been 5th
2014 we'd have been 6th
2013 we'd have been 6th
Last 10 years have the average around 5th (4.9 specifically), this year isnt an outlier. It just shows this needed to be started much earlier. It also shows that without the injuries, we likely lose our pick practically without any question.
3 to 6 (average of 4.9) compared to being 6-7 ATM
Also I think the issue is not necessarily being 6th but how far we are from 5.
Is it typical to be that far ahead of position #4 and #5 while only having 23 games.
I am not saying this year is a massive outlier but the bottom is still worse than usual.
I wasn't paying heavy attention to the win rates of the bottom 5 outside occasional glances, but honestly, it wasn't that far off from this year. The bottom 2 are where it really deviates, WAS/DET are really bad. They are 2 of the worst records of the last 10 years.
Bottom 5 winning % by year.
2023 .257 .243 .240 .187 .176
2022 .402 .329 .268 .268 .207
2021 .305 .293 .280 .268 .244
2020 .306 .306 .292 .278 .236
2019 .303 .299 .297 .292 .231
2018 .354 .268 .232 .232 .207
2017 .305 .293 .293 .268 .256
2016 .354 .341 .317 .293 .244
2015 .354 .280 .256 .207 .122
2014 .305 .256 .220 .207 .195
2013 .305 .305 .280 .232 .183
Average is about .330 for the 5th place team which is 27 wins, this year it's projected to be 21 wins. 6 game difference while noticeable, is only 7% of the total season games. I wonder if it's a cascading effect from the bottom 2 teams being SO bad, that the other teams are trying to compete at being bad as well.
At a glance it looks like 2013, 2014, and 2015 seem to be below average in all the same end of season positions, aside from 5th place in 2015. Maybe once one or two teams really start being exceptionally terrible, it becomes a race to the bottom.
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