2014 NBA Draft Prospects Thread #4 | Raps picking 20th

[UK-Raptor]

If we were to take Elfrid Payton, are you confident that Vasquez could play more backup 2? With Payton at the 1?

[m83588333]

If we were to take Elfrid Payton, are you confident that Vasquez could play more backup 2? With Payton at the 1?

Payton replaces DeColo as the backup 1 and GV is sixth man. GV problem is he takes minutes away from Ross and DeRozan at the 2 especially late 3rd 4th.

[Dr Comeback]

More draft nerd stuff

I gave 5 draft prospects I loved yesterday around the raptors spot, here are the guys I really think we need to stay away from at all costs even if they fall to us.


So much of potential is dictated by size and explosiveness, because of their difficulty to improve in any meaningful way, it makes them the most coveted attributes by teams come draft time. The problem is the difficulty of putting size and explosiveness in the proper context, these attributes are entirely relative to positional designations. The wing position is particularly tricky because finding small forwards and shooting guards who can play defense hit open threes and make plays from the corner are the most replaceable assets in basketball, and don’t require the investment of a first round pick to find competent performance. The high level wings that get drafted and become elite players offer extra value as a secondary pick and roll ball handler or as a multi positional defender. To properly identify as a high ceiling wing prospects you have gage the likelihood they will develop the skills to give you value beyond what you can expect from the Carlos Delfino’s or Caron Butlers that hit free agency every year.



James Young

James Young has excellent size for his position with a 7 foot wingspan and an 8’8” standing reach, my problem with him as a so called “high ceiling” prospect is without massive improvements to basically every aspect of his game besides shooting, he looks like a replaceable 3 point shooting wing. James Young claim to fame is his beautiful looking jump shot, but he isn’t Klay Thompson, he isn’t a good enough shooter to justify his status as a potential prospect. Young is a horrific defender, with a terrifying combination of inconsistent intensity, questionable lateral quickness as well as poor basketball IQ and fundamentals. During the championship game, Bo Ryan and his group of pale, Wisconsin non athletes, who 90% will never set foot on an NBA court, made a point of targeting the James Young turnstile to to score in the half court.


He also shows nothing in the way of scoring instincts and is a terrible passer. How much improvement can you reasonably project before it becomes unlikely to occur? Lets say he becomes a competent defender, than what do you have? A 3 and D guy who can’t handle or pass in the pick and roll? If that is acceptable to the Raptors at 20, then fine but the perception of a James Young as a high ceiling is fundamentally flawed.



Deandre Daniels

Deandre Daniels is another guy where the perception of his ceiling doesn’t really match his performance in college. So much of Daniels value is tied up in his jump shot, and unorthodox shot mechanics wise, a shot he didn’t start hitting consistently until his final year in college, how certain can you be that he will continue being a 40% guy, in the NBA? Daniels has little in the way NBA skills you can reasonably project. You can’t really project Daniels as a 3 and d guys, he is poor defender with a high center of gravity and average lateral quickness for the wing, he also very slight with narrow shoulders that can be taken advantage of by burlier NBA wings in the post. You can’t reasonably project him as a secondary ball handler, he has a high dribble and limited experience operating out of the pick and roll as a ball handler, he also is a terrible passer, with one of the lowest assist rate of any prospect in this draft. Deandre Daniels is a low ceiling low floor type of prospect, the possible upside of his shooting doesn’t justify the risk that he may not have and other NBA caliber skills.



Zach Lavine

“A shooter who can’t shoot” is a designation given to guys whose reputation as a shooter never really matches the results on the court. Zach Lavine has been deemed as a “high ceiling” prospect by many, and his appeal seems to be tied up in his athleticism, his size for position, and his shooting. His athleticism is indisputable, basically tearing the combine apart with 41 inch vertical, and scorching ¾ courts sprint times, but I have serious questions about basically everything else.

To believe in his size for position, you have to believe that he is a point guard, this a delusion that has somehow infected sizable parts of the Raptor fanbase. There is absolutely zero evidence that he can play point guard on the next level. He had a tiny assist rate for a guard and while some of that can be blamed on the ball dominant Kyle Anderson, when he was asked to create for other he struggled. NBA point guards need to be able to take a mental map of the floor, know where everyone is on the court and anticipate gaps, and lanes in the defense, this is a very difficult thing to teach, Brandon Knight an alleged “point guard” when he was drafted still hasn’t figured this out. Teaching that innate court sense is about as difficult as improving a player’s athleticism, and assuming it will just develop out of nowhere would be a serious mistake.

Zach Lavine’s handle is also a question mark, a crossover move does not a great handle make. Zach has an excellent crossover, his handle isn’t really good enough to get everywhere he needs to go on the court, he goes more east west than north south, and he struggled to consistently great looks for himself or his teammates in the half court settling for a lot of pull up jump shots, and generating very few free throw attempts. Lavine lacks a sense of pace, the ability to change speeds, use hesitation moves to get the defense off balance.

Another thing you have to believe in his his status as a premium shooter, he started off his season at UCLA very hot shooting 43% from three, but he finished 6 for 31 ending the season at 37%, and while he has a quick release, he also has unconventional mechanics, which always begs the question, will he be able to continue to repeat his stroke under the greater conditioning demands of the NBA? Austin Rivers was also profiled as a premium shooter, but his mechanics completely broke down in the NBA. While I don’t think Zach is going to be as bad as Austin shooting the ball, there are so many question surrounding even his strongest attributes as a prospect the only thing you can be certain of is athleticism, and the history of the draft is filled with the failed careers of the freak athletes who fail to make a dent as actual basketball players.


Glenn Robinson III

People are growing more aware of the importance of standing reach vs height in player evaluation, you can’t block shots with your head, this is a problem for Glenn Robinson’s status as a first round pick, despite a 6’10 wingspan he put up a tiny 8’4.5” standing reach commensurate with an average shooting guard, this is especially a problematic for a guy whose best position might be as a small ball 4. Footwork is something that’s generally associated with post players but its equally important, for perimeter players, Tony Parker despite his lack of vertical, and declining athleticism is still an elite finisher in the paint do to his masterful footwork; quick spins, step throughs, jumping off the wrong foot to disrupt the defenders timing, its why Tony’s game has aged so well. Glenn Robinson has a worrying combination of poor footwork and poor ball handling, which made him rely on long two point shots which hampered his efficiency in college. If he doesn’t make massive improvements, in ball handling and in footwork what is he left with? A tiny stretch 4, that can’t actually stretch the defense. The level of risk risk in projecting Glenn Robinson III game, ultimately doesn’t amount to a first round talent.

[TNRaps4life]

Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider 40m
Elfrid Payton shooting the ball so well. Killing guys in 3-on-3 on both ends. Special player.
Expand

[Duffman100]

Whats with the Fournier overhype on this board? Dudes a scrub.

Scrub? Go watch some Denver games, he's a pretty good bench guard.

And compared to most of those other guys, he's virtually Jordan.

[BangerBrotha]

I'm not talking about this year. Where were you when casey gave minutes to alan anderson over ross? Or when JV would be killing it and then get benched for the entire 4th quarter?

I agree on Alan Anderson playing too much, but Ross was terrible too. I had wished Fields would have played more. As for JV killing it, it was mainly on the offensive end. He's had many bad nights defensively.

But generally, I am liking both JV and Ross' development. A coach like Casey will instil them will good fundamentals.

[Dukenukem23]

Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider 40m
Elfrid Payton shooting the ball so well. Killing guys in 3-on-3 on both ends. Special player.
Expand

This is a shocking development. Payton was a flat out horrific shooter in College. Did he learn to shoot it, or just catch fire on his awkward release? If it's the former he's gone before #20 anyways.

[raptor jesus]

Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider 40m
Elfrid Payton shooting the ball so well. Killing guys in 3-on-3 on both ends. Special player.
Expand

Could definitely see him leapfrogging Ennis.

[fame]

Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider 40m
Elfrid Payton shooting the ball so well. Killing guys in 3-on-3 on both ends. Special player.
Expand

This is a shocking development. Payton was a flat out horrific shooter in College. Did he learn to shoot it, or just catch fire on his awkward release? If it's the former he's gone before #20 anyways.

Yeah forsure! Elfrid Payton with a jumpshot is a sure-fire lottery pick with the tools he has.

Keep in mind Chad Ford has been known to hype up specific prospects. Especially ones that have certain agents and what not.

Food for thought, Jordan Hamilton has the same agent as Elfrid Payton. In 2011 this is what Chad Ford had to say about him

“Hamilton would be a great get for the Rockets here if he’s still on the board. He might be the best pure scorer in the draft. Hamilton has unlimited range and is always hunting for his shot.

[Ari_Emanuel]

History of 20th pick since 2001:

2001: Brendan Haywood
2002: Kareem Rush
2003: Dahntay Jones
2004: Jameer Nelson
2005: Julius Hodge
2006:Renaldo Balkman
2007: Jason Smith
2008:Alexis Ajinca
2009: Eric Maynor
2010: James Anderson
2011: Donatas Motiejunas
2012: Evan Fournier
2013: Tony Snell

Yikes. Here's hoping we end up with Nelson or Fournier.

Eric Maynor was a great PG prospect before his injuries.

[Duffman100]

History of 20th pick since 2001:

2001: Brendan Haywood
2002: Kareem Rush
2003: Dahntay Jones
2004: Jameer Nelson
2005: Julius Hodge
2006:Renaldo Balkman
2007: Jason Smith
2008:Alexis Ajinca
2009: Eric Maynor
2010: James Anderson
2011: Donatas Motiejunas
2012: Evan Fournier
2013: Tony Snell

Yikes. Here's hoping we end up with Nelson or Fournier.

Eric Maynor was a great PG prospect before his injuries.

Well, technically they're all great prospects until they get injured or suck.

[Ari_Emanuel]

More draft nerd stuff

I gave 5 draft prospects I loved yesterday around the raptors spot, here are the guys I really think we need to stay away from at all costs even if they fall to us.


So much of potential is dictated by size and explosiveness, because of their difficulty to improve in any meaningful way, it makes them the most coveted attributes by teams come draft time. The problem is the difficulty of putting size and explosiveness in the proper context, these attributes are entirely relative to positional designations. The wing position is particularly tricky because finding small forwards and shooting guards who can play defense hit open threes and make plays from the corner are the most replaceable assets in basketball, and don’t require the investment of a first round pick to find competent performance. The high level wings that get drafted and become elite players offer extra value as a secondary pick and roll ball handler or as a multi positional defender. To properly identify as a high ceiling wing prospects you have gage the likelihood they will develop the skills to give you value beyond what you can expect from the Carlos Delfino’s or Caron Butlers that hit free agency every year.



James Young

James Young has excellent size for his position with a 7 foot wingspan and an 8’8” standing reach, my problem with him as a so called “high ceiling” prospect is without massive improvements to basically every aspect of his game besides shooting, he looks like a replaceable 3 point shooting wing. James Young claim to fame is his beautiful looking jump shot, but he isn’t Klay Thompson, he isn’t a good enough shooter to justify his status as a potential prospect. Young is a horrific defender, with a terrifying combination of inconsistent intensity, questionable lateral quickness as well as poor basketball IQ and fundamentals. During the championship game, Bo Ryan and his group of pale, Wisconsin non athletes, who 90% will never set foot on an NBA court, made a point of targeting the James Young turnstile to to score in the half court.


He also shows nothing in the way of scoring instincts and is a terrible passer. How much improvement can you reasonably project before it becomes unlikely to occur? Lets say he becomes a competent defender, than what do you have? A 3 and D guy who can’t handle or pass in the pick and roll? If that is acceptable to the Raptors at 20, then fine but the perception of a James Young as a high ceiling is fundamentally flawed.



Deandre Daniels

Deandre Daniels is another guy where the perception of his ceiling doesn’t really match his performance in college. So much of Daniels value is tied up in his jump shot, and unorthodox shot mechanics wise, a shot he didn’t start hitting consistently until his final year in college, how certain can you be that he will continue being a 40% guy, in the NBA? Daniels has little in the way NBA skills you can reasonably project. You can’t really project Daniels as a 3 and d guys, he is poor defender with a high center of gravity and average lateral quickness for the wing, he also very slight with narrow shoulders that can be taken advantage of by burlier NBA wings in the post. You can’t reasonably project him as a secondary ball handler, he has a high dribble and limited experience operating out of the pick and roll as a ball handler, he also is a terrible passer, with one of the lowest assist rate of any prospect in this draft. Deandre Daniels is a low ceiling low floor type of prospect, the possible upside of his shooting doesn’t justify the risk that he may not have and other NBA caliber skills.



Zach Lavine

“A shooter who can’t shoot” is a designation given to guys whose reputation as a shooter never really matches the results on the court. Zach Lavine has been deemed as a “high ceiling” prospect by many, and his appeal seems to be tied up in his athleticism, his size for position, and his shooting. His athleticism is indisputable, basically tearing the combine apart with 41 inch vertical, and scorching ¾ courts sprint times, but I have serious questions about basically everything else.

To believe in his size for position, you have to believe that he is a point guard, this a delusion that has somehow infected sizable parts of the Raptor fanbase. There is absolutely zero evidence that he can play point guard on the next level. He had a tiny assist rate for a guard and while some of that can be blamed on the ball dominant Kyle Anderson, when he was asked to create for other he struggled. NBA point guards need to be able to take a mental map of the floor, know where everyone is on the court and anticipate gaps, and lanes in the defense, this is a very difficult thing to teach, Brandon Knight an alleged “point guard” when he was drafted still hasn’t figured this out. Teaching that innate court sense is about as difficult as improving a player’s athleticism, and assuming it will just develop out of nowhere would be a serious mistake.

Zach Lavine’s handle is also a question mark, a crossover move does not a great handle make. Zach has an excellent crossover, his handle isn’t really good enough to get everywhere he needs to go on the court, he goes more east west than north south, and he struggled to consistently great looks for himself or his teammates in the half court settling for a lot of pull up jump shots, and generating very few free throw attempts. Lavine lacks a sense of pace, the ability to change speeds, use hesitation moves to get the defense off balance.

Another thing you have to believe in his his status as a premium shooter, he started off his season at UCLA very hot shooting 43% from three, but he finished 6 for 31 ending the season at 37%, and while he has a quick release, he also has unconventional mechanics, which always begs the question, will he be able to continue to repeat his stroke under the greater conditioning demands of the NBA? Austin Rivers was also profiled as a premium shooter, but his mechanics completely broke down in the NBA. While I don’t think Zach is going to be as bad as Austin shooting the ball, there are so many question surrounding even his strongest attributes as a prospect the only thing you can be certain of is athleticism, and the history of the draft is filled with the failed careers of the freak athletes who fail to make a dent as actual basketball players.


Glenn Robinson III

People are growing more aware of the importance of standing reach vs height in player evaluation, you can’t block shots with your head, this is a problem for Glenn Robinson’s status as a first round pick, despite a 6’10 wingspan he put up a tiny 8’4.5” standing reach commensurate with an average shooting guard, this is especially a problematic for a guy whose best position might be as a small ball 4. Footwork is something that’s generally associated with post players but its equally important, for perimeter players, Tony Parker despite his lack of vertical, and declining athleticism is still an elite finisher in the paint do to his masterful footwork; quick spins, step throughs, jumping off the wrong foot to disrupt the defenders timing, its why Tony’s game has aged so well. Glenn Robinson has a worrying combination of poor footwork and poor ball handling, which made him rely on long two point shots which hampered his efficiency in college. If he doesn’t make massive improvements, in ball handling and in footwork what is he left with? A tiny stretch 4, that can’t actually stretch the defense. The level of risk risk in projecting Glenn Robinson III game, ultimately doesn’t amount to a first round talent.

Damn this is well written and very convincing lol. Too many people talk optimistically about upside but you have a knack for putting the risk and weaknesses of prospects into perspective.

Do you coach ball at any level?

[TNRaps4life]

Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider 40m
Elfrid Payton shooting the ball so well. Killing guys in 3-on-3 on both ends. Special player.
Expand

This is a shocking development. Payton was a flat out horrific shooter in College. Did he learn to shoot it, or just catch fire on his awkward release? If it's the former he's gone before #20 anyways.

Yeah forsure! Elfrid Payton with a jumpshot is a sure-fire lottery pick with the tools he has.

Keep in mind Chad Ford has been known to hype up specific prospects. Especially ones that have certain agents and what not.

Food for thought, Jordan Hamilton has the same agent as Elfrid Payton. In 2011 this is what Chad Ford had to say about him

“Hamilton would be a great get for the Rockets here if he’s still on the board. He might be the best pure scorer in the draft. Hamilton has unlimited range and is always hunting for his shot.

This is from the workout in LA today.. So it is what he saw.

[TNRaps4life]

Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider ·3h
Walking into a huge workout in LA this morning. Gary Harris, James Young, Elfrid Payton, TJ Warren, CJ Wilcox, Glenn Robinson III headlining

[anj]

Chad Ford ‏@chadfordinsider 40m
Elfrid Payton shooting the ball so well. Killing guys in 3-on-3 on both ends. Special player.
Expand

Chad Ford does this every year. See Pavel Podkolzin, Darko Milicic, etc.

[Dr Comeback]

Damn this is well written and very convincing lol. Too many people talk optimistically about upside but you have a knack for putting the risk and weaknesses of prospects into perspective.

Do you coach ball at any level?

thanks

no, I wish I could though, or scout.

Scouting would be awesome.

[Risk101]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/469542476491943936[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/draftexpress/status/469530706620604416[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/status/469576180589686784[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/mike_schmitz/status/469537024169357313[/tweet]

[Risk101]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVty1H2QwRI[/youtube]

[TNRaps4life]

Russ Smith might have 15-20 assists so far. Gets in the lane whenever he wants. Drive and kick, drop offs, pick and roll dimes

[HolyMage110]

Damn, seems like everyone is seeing the type of player payton actually is. Wonder if he would actaully go mid round