State of the Union. Team Canada Basketball. (FIBA Americas Aug.31-Sep.15)

[mojo13]

Interesting article on Canadian Basketball.

http://www.the10and3.com/canada-is-the-next-international-basketball-powerhouse-00013/

Edit: Sorry - already posted.

I tend to disagree - Powerhouse is too strong a word. Regular Top 10 team that can threaten to medal is more like it.

[thunderforce]

Now we just got to get them all on the court at the same time .

[MikeM]

Calipari looking at Canada like..

[GoSu]

Even now, the only team a full-strength (i.e. with Wiggins, TT, etc.; not like the Pan Am roster) team Canada should be scared of is team USA. Its disappointing to see how badly the national team has performed in some of the previous year.

Disagree. No argument that Canada should emerge as one of the bball powerhouses in few years, but currently it's no match not only against USA, but definitely against Spain & France, and most likely against Serbia, Lithuania, Greece as well.

[aminiaturebuddha]

I don't know how anyone could know that? Even 3 years out is speculating.
Murray is so young...Sometimes I don't think people appreciate how much development happens from 18 to 22.
Take Myck Kabongo for example - 5 years ago people here were certain he was a sure fire lottery pick , the next Steve Nash and would be starting for the SMNT at 20 (same thing with Cadougan before him). Things happen...some guys unexpectedly develop or don't develop. Injuries happen and the hype machine is strong with young guys.
Cojo is a known quantity, is good now, is getting better every year and is currently the best Canadian point guard (with lots of room to get better).
You didn't even ask about Tyler Ennis.... a year ago, he was the next great point guard. He still could be - but why are people talking about Murray over Ennis at this point? Ennis still has a ways to go to get to Cojo's level and Murray even farther. Murray may not even be a PG - he sure has competition for ball handling duties at UK. Regardless, it will be fun to watch him develop this year in Lexington.

Well said, and absolutely correct. It's fun to get caught up talking about the future, hell I do it all the time imagining guys like Murray or Barrett Jr. on the NT for the 2020 Olympics or something, but player development is never a sure thing. The Pan Am Games are fine to use as a development tool, but in the FIBA Americas games, the only goal should be putting the best team on the floor to win games. Luckily, quite a few of the young players should be a big part of that "best team", but it also means that we may be watching guys like Anderson for at least another year.

Beyond that, the main focus needs to continue to be on the overall strength of the program. Whereas in previous years the participation of one or two players could make or break us, the program is well on the way to being at the point where individuals won't be bigger than the team. That's great news overall for Canadian basketball. It can mean that even if guys like Murray and Barrett and Simi don't develop the way we hope they will, Canada Basketball will remain a contender for the foreseeable future. It's exciting to watch some of those young talented guys and dream about the future, but it's the still-in-progress overall strength of the national program that has me pretty hyped.

[HighOctane]

Everyone else has already become an international powerhouse, it's about damn time.

[Young_Buc]

Even now, the only team a full-strength (i.e. with Wiggins, TT, etc.; not like the Pan Am roster) team Canada should be scared of is team USA. Its disappointing to see how badly the national team has performed in some of the previous year.

Disagree. No argument that Canada should emerge as one of the bball powerhouses in few years, but currently it's no match not only against USA, but definitely against Spain & France, and most likely against Serbia, Lithuania, Greece as well.

Who does Spain and France have coming down the pipeline in the next 5 or so years? I can see Austrailia leapfrogging all of those teams if all goes well. If Wiggins is a franchise superstar (big if) Canada is clear cut number 2.

[GoSu]

Even now, the only team a full-strength (i.e. with Wiggins, TT, etc.; not like the Pan Am roster) team Canada should be scared of is team USA. Its disappointing to see how badly the national team has performed in some of the previous year.

Disagree. No argument that Canada should emerge as one of the bball powerhouses in few years, but currently it's no match not only against USA, but definitely against Spain & France, and most likely against Serbia, Lithuania, Greece as well.

Who does Spain and France have coming down the pipeline in the next 5 or so years? I can see Austrailia leapfrogging all of those teams if all goes well. If Wiggins is a franchise superstar (big if) Canada is clear cut number 2.

That's what I said with my 2nd sentence In 5 years a lot will change, past/current big dogs like Spain and Argentina have all their best players retiring already. I simply stated that right now, there are still plenty of stronger teams around.

P.S. check the "Boys" ranking tab, that should be good indicative for the future prognosis.
http://www.fiba.com/rankingmen

[Undefeated]

Even now, the only team a full-strength (i.e. with Wiggins, TT, etc.; not like the Pan Am roster) team Canada should be scared of is team USA. Its disappointing to see how badly the national team has performed in some of the previous year.

Disagree. No argument that Canada should emerge as one of the bball powerhouses in few years, but currently it's no match not only against USA, but definitely against Spain & France, and most likely against Serbia, Lithuania, Greece as well.

Who does Spain and France have coming down the pipeline in the next 5 or so years? I can see Austrailia leapfrogging all of those teams if all goes well. If Wiggins is a franchise superstar (big if) Canada is clear cut number 2.

Croatia is better than Canada I think.

[mojo13]

Even now, the only team a full-strength (i.e. with Wiggins, TT, etc.; not like the Pan Am roster) team Canada should be scared of is team USA. Its disappointing to see how badly the national team has performed in some of the previous year.

Disagree. No argument that Canada should emerge as one of the bball powerhouses in few years, but currently it's no match not only against USA, but definitely against Spain & France, and most likely against Serbia, Lithuania, Greece as well.

Who does Spain and France have coming down the pipeline in the next 5 or so years? I can see Austrailia leapfrogging all of those teams if all goes well. If Wiggins is a franchise superstar (big if) Canada is clear cut number 2.

There are boatloads of young talented players coming out of Croatia, Turkey, Australia, Serbia and to a lesser extent Greece.
France and Spain still have enough young guys (and guys coming up) that they will be good in five years.

Anyways we are getting way ahead of ourselves. We should be worrying if we are better than Argentina, Brazil, DR, PR, or Mexico right now. The FIBA Americas are what matters....we have a young inexperienced team that will be in tough to qualify for the Olympics.

[frumble]

I think there are some promising signs, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Our performance in int'l competitions is getting worse, not better. We used to routinely qualify for the Worlds, and do ok at them. From 1970 to 2002 we made every Worlds (when fewer teams made it), and finished in the top 10 six times.

The field was expanded from 16 to 24 for the 2006 worlds, but we failed to qualify.
In 2010 we went 0-5, with losses to NZ and Lebanon. I guess we had a better point differential than a couple teams, so maybe we were 22nd.
In 2014 we again failed to qualify (despite having more NBAers than any other team at the Americas).


Regarding all the guys we have in the NBA, they are mostly bench warmers.
Of the 13 Canadians who played in the NBA last season, only one was a starter (Wiggins). Only one other (Thompson) played more than 1,500 minutes. (Joseph and Olynyk were next, at 1,444 and 1,423).

So we had two guys with more than 1,500 minutes. 12 seasons ago we had four (Magloire, MacCullough, Fox, and Nash). The next few seasons we had two or three every year (with MacCullough and Fox out but Dalembert coming in).

So our number of NBA starters has generally been the same for the last 15 seasons or so, and the increase in our back of the rotation guys hasn't helped. Good Euro league players are often better than those guys in FIBA play.

The article says:

Recent history suggests that the presence of NBA-calibre participation bodes well for national teams competing in international tournaments. The second-through-fourth-place-finishing countries in the previous three international tournaments (where the USA took gold) were heavy on NBA talent (current and ex-NBA players).

But there is no support for this statement. How many NBA guys did the 5th through 8th place teams have? More or fewer than the 2nd through 4th teams?

In terms of the Americas, Canada routinely has as many or more NBAers than the teams that beat us and/or qualify ahead of us. In 2013 we had the most NBAers, but didn't come particularly close to qualifying.

Next powerhouse? Maybe. But we are a long way from the strong Euro teams and we first we need to get back ahead of Puerto Rico, the Dominican, and Mexico; and close to Brazil and Argentina.

[mojo13]

What frumble says.

Good Euro league players are often better than those guys in FIBA play.

So many people underestimate this statement. The Euro allstar is better than the end of the bencher NBA player.

Additionally people here don't respect how different the FIBA brand of bBall is from the American (NBA) brand. The whole FIBA rule system is set up to dampen the athletic advantage of American bball players (tight traveling calls, moving screens allowed, defensive three in the key allowed, wider lanes, shorter three point line, clutching/grabbing/roughness allowed etc.). The US can overcome this with such ridiculous talent and depth, I am not sure Canada can.

[aminiaturebuddha]

Which countries are or are not basketball "powerhouses" is something that is likely to shift and change and appear in waves. Aside from the US, who because of overwhelming numbers, talent, resources, etc. are really the only true basketball powerhouse, other countries will be better or worse at times as top players go through their primes.

Take a look at Argentina, who for much of the past decade and a half have been one of the top countries in the world. I don't think anyone really sees them as a Top 5 team anymore.

I think the best to hope for, realistically, for Canada (and really any country that isn't the US or possibly Spain) is to be part of a group of 10-12 countries that remain competitive throughout those ebbs and flows and give themselves a chance to put medal contending teams together when the talent coalesces at the right times.

Looking forward, I think this group of countries will probably include Spain, Croatia, France, Greece, Turkey, Serbia, Lithuania, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, and the Dominican Republic. There may be others on the edges (or an obvious one that I've forgotten), but Canada's goal should be to join that group of "consistently good with occasional chances to be great" teams.

But that's looking forward. As mojo says, the short term goal right now is to take our youthful team through what is sure to be a tough test in the FIBA Americas.

[frumble]

Murray is so young...Sometimes I don't think people appreciate how much development happens from 18 to 22.
Take Myck Kabongo for example - 5 years ago people here were certain he was a sure fire lottery pick , the next Steve Nash and would be starting for the SMNT at 20 (same thing with Cadougan before him). Things happen...some guys unexpectedly develop or don't develop. Injuries happen and the hype machine is strong with young guys.
Cojo is a known quantity, is good now, is getting better every year and is currently the best Canadian point guard (with lots of room to get better).
You didn't even ask about Tyler Ennis.... a year ago, he was the next great point guard. He still could be - but why are people talking about Murray over Ennis at this point? Ennis still has a ways to go to get to Cojo's level and Murray even farther. Murray may not even be a PG - he sure has competition for ball handling duties at UK. Regardless, it will be fun to watch him develop this year in Lexington.

Well said.

People seem to be forgetting how highly touted Kabongo, Joseph, and Ennis were. Its hard to make a comparison of recruiting rankings because of Murray playing HS in Canada and reclassifying late, but I think he probably would have been about 10th ranked in the class of 15 if he had been in the US and had been in the 15 class all along. I think Simmons, Labissiere, Brown, Diallo, Ingram, Rabb, Newman, Ellerson, and Stone would likely have been ahead of him.

Coming out of HS, Kabongo was 10th and Joseph was 13th (RSCI averages across six rating services).
And they were closer to pure PGs than Murray.

And of course Pangos (and Cadougan before him) was thought by many to be the next Steve Nash.

Remember this SI (Luke Winn) article from five years ago?

http://www.si.com/more-sports/2010/04/20/canadian-pointguards

Kabongo, a 6-2, five-star recruit, is considered the next elite Canadian point after Joseph, and currently plays for St. Benedict's Prep in Newark, N.J. The trend has been for Canada's best talent to relocate to the states to develop -- Joseph, Kabongo and the country's best 2009 point guard, Junior Cadougan, who missed most of his freshman season at Marquette after rupturing an Achilles, followed that route. But the prospect who's actually been given the "best since Nash" label is still at a normal secondary school in Canada: Holland Landing, Ontario's Kevin Pangos, arguably the country's top 2012 recruit.

I hope Murray develops as well as Joseph has, but if I had to guess now, I would say that in five years our best PG will still be Joseph, with Ennis as the next best bet.

[frumble]

Looking forward, I think this group of countries will probably include Spain, Croatia, France, Greece, Turkey, Serbia, Lithuania, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, and the Dominican Republic. There may be others on the edges (or an obvious one that I've forgotten), but Canada's goal should be to join that group of "consistently good with occasional chances to be great" teams.

Good list. I don't think you are forgetting anyone. Arguably Slovenia could be added to make it an even dozen.

[frumble]

A couple days ago we were wondering about Jermaine Haley.
Last night Pasha Bains tweeted that Haley has committed to New Mexico State.

Also yesterday (before the NMSU announcement), rumblings on the Zags board that Haley was having academic issues and would be going the JUCO route.

In any case, a bit of a fall for the guy. Two years ago he seemed to be rocketing up the rankings, had committed to UW, etc.



And in mock draft news, NBAdraft.net has updated its 2016 mock and put out its 2017 mock.
For 2016, they have Murray 10th and Wiltjer 47th.
For 2017, they have XRM 31st and Brooks 38th.

Obviously very early, but if that prediction holds, 2017 would be the first draft without a Canadian in the first round since 2010.

[Young_Buc]

A couple days ago we were wondering about Jermaine Haley.
Last night Pasha Bains tweeted that Haley has committed to New Mexico State.

Also yesterday (before the NMSU announcement), rumblings on the Zags board that Haley was having academic issues and would be going the JUCO route.

In any case, a bit of a fall for the guy. Two years ago he seemed to be rocketing up the rankings, had committed to UW, etc.



And in mock draft news, NBAdraft.net has updated its 2016 mock and put out its 2017 mock.
For 2016, they have Murray 10th and Wiltjer 47th.
For 2017, they have XRM 31st and Brooks 38th.

Obviously very early, but if that prediction holds, 2017 would be the first draft without a Canadian in the first round since 2010.

xrm is either going first round or undrafted. He's two years older than most freshmen. He's gotta drop 20+ for scouts to get over that. (He's shown he can be pretty explosive in that dept)

[aminiaturebuddha]

xrm is either going first round or undrafted. He's two years older than most freshmen. He's gotta drop 20+ for scouts to get over that. (He's shown he can be pretty explosive in that dept)

I could definitely see XRM declaring after this year if he has a good season. He'll be 22 by the time the draft rolls around, and he'll either have shown that he has the talent and has developed the PG skills to take a run at the NBA or not. He needs to improve his shooting efficiency, continue to develop his point guard skills, and work on his defence. I think he has the talent to do that, and if he does, he could get some looks as a late 1st rounder in sort of a rich man's Olivier Hanlan mold.

[Young_Buc]

xrm is either going first round or undrafted. He's two years older than most freshmen. He's gotta drop 20+ for scouts to get over that. (He's shown he can be pretty explosive in that dept)

I could definitely see XRM declaring after this year if he has a good season. He'll be 22 by the time the draft rolls around, and he'll either have shown that he has the talent and has developed the PG skills to take a run at the NBA or not. He needs to improve his shooting efficiency, continue to develop his point guard skills, and work on his defence. I think he has the talent to do that, and if he does, he could get some looks as a late 1st rounder in sort of a rich man's Olivier Hanlan mold.

He averaged a decent amount of assists this year he reminds me a poor man's kyrie (nowhere near the handle which is what makes kyrie effective)

[Patman]

All the other powerhouse teams in FIBA have always had one thing over us: consistent attendance from their top players. The teams we lose to have usually played with each other for years.