Raptors NBA Draft Thread: Austin Rivers (NOH)

[Ell Curry]

I'm not seeing the Westbrook thing. That guy could be an NFL wide receiver or Safety, or a dominant center back in soccer. Rivers just looks like an agile, skinny guy. Westbrook has incredible speed and power.

Tony Wroten, I haven't seen play, and his numbers terrify me, but people think he's that kind of athlete, right?

[Double Helix]

Again... I only brought up Westbrook to highlight a combo guard that didn't have an amazing freshmen season or even really a top 5 dominant sophomore campaign. People forget where Westbrook was ranked heading into his draft. He was in the teens but after workouts he kept moving up. It wasn't like the consensus on him was that he was a can't miss combo guard and top 5 lock at this point in the time in his draft year. Check Draftexpress' mock draft history on him if you don't believe me. He was 2nd round material and then eventually a late lotto pick but even right up until near the end nobody expected him to be the star he became.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Rus ... t-history/

Also note Draft Express's player comparisons for him (Barbosa on the high end/Shannon Brown on the low end)

I am not saying Rivers and Westbrook have similar builds or anything of that sort because they don't. I'm merely saying that OKC went out on a limb after seeing him in person and running him through drills and felt like using a top 5 pick on him, surprising some. All I'm saying is that it would be nice for us if Rivers somehow went through a similar climb after workouts.

But since we're talking about Westbrook''s build... while it's true he's always had a muscular frame and wide shoulders... he has obviously put on even more weight since entering the league, just as many players do.

[JamesNaismith]

I'm not seeing the Westbrook thing. That guy could be an NFL wide receiver or Safety, or a dominant center back in soccer. Rivers just looks like an agile, skinny guy. Westbrook has incredible speed and power.

Tony Wroten, I haven't seen play, and his numbers terrify me, but people think he's that kind of athlete, right?

No, Tony Wroten is NOT perceived as a "Westbrook" type of athlete.


He's actually more heralded for his height at PG (potentially), some decent court vision and exciting passes (ala Rubio) BUT the problem is he is FAR more turnover prone. Right now if things went extremely well for him he could turn out more in the mold of Tyreke Evans but he's definitely a gamble. He looks like a beast in streetball but he's having problems converting that talent to organized ball...here's some footage of him going at Wall

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9w8BOO7ZT4[/youtube]

[JamesNaismith]

Again... I only brought up Westbrook to highlight a combo guard that didn't have an amazing freshmen season or even really a top 5 dominant sophomore campaign. People forget where Westbrook was ranked heading into his draft. He was in the teens but after workouts he kept moving up. It wasn't like the consensus on him was that he was a can't miss combo guard and top 5 lock at this point in the time in his draft year. Check Draftexpress' mock draft history on him if you don't believe me. He was 2nd round material and then eventually a late lotto pick but even right up until near the end nobody expected him to be the star he became.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Rus ... t-history/

Also note Draft Express's player comparisons for him (Barbosa on the high end/Shannon Brown on the low end)

I am not saying Rivers and Westbrook have similar builds or anything of that sort because they don't. I'm merely saying that OKC went out on a limb after seeing him in person and running him through drills and felt like using a top 5 pick on him, surprising some. All I'm saying is that it would be nice for us if Rivers somehow went through a similar climb after workouts.

But since we're talking about Westbrook''s build... while it's true he's always had a muscular frame and wide shoulders... he has obviously put on even more weight since entering the league, just as many players do.

I'm sorry I think you're a great poster usually but you're really stretching and fighting too hard to make this comparison. Westbrook is yes probably the most well known and current example of a kid exploding up the ranks by taking a gamble on him but if we were to do that with Rivers that's where the commonality ends. Their games are not alike, their athleticism is not alike and their skillsets are completely different so you really need to let this go.

Rivers game by FAR most closely resembles OJ MAYO (as does their highschool hype and cocky attitudes). You want a career projection then look no further. To Mayo's defece I don't believe he's been used well since his rookie campaign and I think Rivers can have similar numbers but the problem is and will always be they are not TEAM players. They are ballhogs that look for their own and please don't try and justify it because its been beaten to death -- Rivers is not a team player BUT he is instant offence hence why he projects well to be an excellent 6th man like a Crawford, Barbosa and Terry (all guys that are SGs in PG bodies). The biggest problem is both Mayo and Rivers still believe they are the "man" from highschool and want to dominate when they could be better if they accepted what they are (as I guess would some of their supporters as well).

[Double Helix]

Well, to be perfectly transparent... I did think Mayo was going to be a better pro and I am still a little surprised that he hasn't done better.

His rookie year even was solid:

18.5ppg/3.2apg/3.8rpg/1.1spg - PER of around 15.0

That's not a bad way to start one's career but the progression just hasn't been there and he only recently seemed to accept this 6th man role. I think I just really want to have one of those new era combo guards leading the way so badly that I'm willing to overlook obvious flaws. I want us to have a young guy with some swagger and penetration ability to make things fun around here. That's probably the biggest reason why I'm looking for reasons to be excited about Rivers and want him to somehow emerge in a Westbrook-esque kind of way and wow people in workouts even if it's unlikely to happen.

Beyond that, if he moves up... a guy like Lamb or Barnes will fall.

It's true though. Westbrook and his rise and continual development year after year after year really are the exception. That doesn't usually happen so dramatically.

[Dr Positivity]

I'm really not sold on his talent level.

Physical tools? He's quick but mediocore in other areas. Does not have the strength or vertical ability at the rim.

Skill level? He can handle the ball decently and has shooting potential (though his current shooting ability is overrated - mid 60s FT% yikes!)

Basketball IQ? Bad

I'm just not seeing what makes him a special talent or really in a different league talent wise than a guy like Jordan Crawford. There have been a lot of moderately athletic but not physicall dynamic guards over the years who like to dribble and put up shots. Even if he had a good attitude I wouldn't be sold, I just don't see the talent level being top 10 caliber. The difference between him and eg. Westbrook even disregarding the latter's drive and learning curve, comes down to Westbrook being one of the 10-15 most talented players in the league. I'm not sure Rivers will be a top 100 talent in the league.

As for his high school hype it can change quickly for players. Another combo guard Josh Selby was recently ranked #1 out of high school. OJ Mayo, Marvin Williams, Demar Derozan were not as talented as expected because it turned out physically they were B talents instead of A ones (I'd argue that's exactly why Rivers and Barnes are not the prospects they were in high school). I think history suggests to make talent judgments on NCAA analysis and not high school reptuation.

To me it'd be like taking Marquis Teague top 10, Teague has some physical and skill talent to be a top 7 rotation player but it's aiming pretty low and at a high risk IMO

[Double Helix]

I'm really not sold on his talent level.

Physical tools? He's quick but mediocore in other areas. Does not have the strength or vertical ability at the rim.

Skill level? He can handle the ball decently and has shooting potential (though his current shooting ability is overrated - mid 60s FT% yikes!)

Basketball IQ? Bad

I'm just not seeing what makes him a special talent or really in a different league talent wise than a guy like Jordan Crawford. There have been a lot of moderately athletic but not physicall dynamic guards over the years who like to dribble and put up shots. Even if he had a good attitude I wouldn't be sold, I just don't see the talent level being top 10 caliber. The difference between him and eg. Westbrook even disregarding the latter's drive and learning curve, comes down to Westbrook being one of the 10-15 most talented players in the league. I'm not sure Rivers will be a top 100 talent in the league.

As for his high school hype it can change quickly for players. Another combo guard Josh Selby was recently ranked #1 out of high school. OJ Mayo, Marvin Williams, Demar Derozan were not as talented as expected because it turned out physically they were B talents instead of A ones (I'd argue that's exactly why Rivers and Barnes are not the prospects they were in high school). I think history suggests to make talent judgments on NCAA analysis and not high school reptuation.

To me it'd be like taking Marquis Teague top 10, Teague has some physical and skill talent to be a top 7 rotation player but it's aiming pretty low and at a high risk IMO

Some great points in there, Dr. M. I hear you on a lot of them. I will say that Westbrook's FT% the year he entered the league was also only 71% and it's now up to the mid 80s.

I completely disagree with you on your assessment of his talent level. This kid has special talent. What he needs is more polish and more time in the gym knocking down some of the tough shots he takes. He gets to the rim at will. He takes guys left and right. He has hesitation moves, crossovers, stepbacks... He's pretty much got every dribble move that the elite guards in the league have and a nice first step. He knows how to get his shot off a variety of ways... floaters, layups in traffic between defenders... He can shoot off the dribble at different speeds and different areas of the court. Skill is not an issue with Rivers at all. He has elite skill... I think arguably top 40 "skill." What he needs is maturity, improved efficiency and better passing.

Regarding Selby... he's much longer than Selby was. Selby was a 6'2 SG. Rivers may end up being 6'4.5 with shoes on with a 6'7 wingspan. And just when people were counting out Avery Bradley he's shown this year that he has a place in this league, too. Bradley closed out the season brilliantly, showing that with opportunity he can get to the net at will... and Rivers may have more overall star potential than him (Bradley's the better defender though). Bradley was in a similar situation except he was even smaller. After a ton of HS hype he showed during his single year at Texas that he wasn't a pure PG. His numbers in many ways were actually worse than what Rivers put up at Duke and his measurements put him at 6'3 with shoes. He dropped and yet here he is on a very good Celtics team and down the stretch he was scoring 20ppg on efficient numbers. Some guys just become better NBA guys than what they showed before. Brandon Jennings looks like a completely different player in the NBA than what he shows in Europe. The job of our scouts is to determine if Rivers might be similar.

[The Chucker]

I completely disagree with you on your assessment of his talent level. This kid has special talent. What he needs is more polish and more time in the gym knocking down some of the tough shots he takes. He gets to the rim at will. He takes guys left and right. He has hesitation moves, crossovers, stepbacks... He's pretty much got every dribble move that the elite guards in the league have and a nice first step. He knows how to get his shot off a variety of ways... floaters, layups in traffic between defenders... He can shoot off the dribble at different speeds and different areas of the court. Skill is not an issue with Rivers at all. He has elite skill... I think arguably top 40 "skill." What he needs is maturity, improved efficiency and better passing.

bro rivers cannot go left. erryone knos this.

[Double Helix]

I completely disagree with you on your assessment of his talent level. This kid has special talent. What he needs is more polish and more time in the gym knocking down some of the tough shots he takes. He gets to the rim at will. He takes guys left and right. He has hesitation moves, crossovers, stepbacks... He's pretty much got every dribble move that the elite guards in the league have and a nice first step. He knows how to get his shot off a variety of ways... floaters, layups in traffic between defenders... He can shoot off the dribble at different speeds and different areas of the court. Skill is not an issue with Rivers at all. He has elite skill... I think arguably top 40 "skill." What he needs is maturity, improved efficiency and better passing.

bro rivers cannot go left. erryone knos this.

Says who? Swishscout and Bleacherreport citing swishscout? Swishscout is a couple friends recording satelite TV, building mixes from no more than 5-8 weekend games and then trying to act like they've seen everything there is to see on these guys. They're less reptuable than Draftexprss or nbadraft.net; they're just bringing video mixes to table. It's absolute BS that Rivers can't go left. Duke was on TV a lot and I saw him go left plenty.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zbkj3eSYAb8[/youtube]

The times here when he goes right he's accepting a screen. I've watched a ton of footage on Rivers and while he certainly prefers his right... any attempt to make it sound as though he's left hand is captain hook is an overstatement.

That said... I agree more with Dr. M's assessment of the numbers. I wish they were better. It would be easier to get excited. I don't think BC will take the bait everybody so relax... I'm just interested in seeing how he does in the next level now.

I think Jeremy Lamb will be the pick.

[Undefeated]

Skill level? He can handle the ball decently and has shooting potential (though his current shooting ability is overrated - mid 60s FT% yikes!)

If anything, Austin Rivers' handles are more than decent. That's one area of his game that you can't really call him out on. Thru-the-leg crossover, frontal cross, in-and-out, egg-beater/windmill, behind-the-back. You name it, Rivers got every dribbling moves in the book. The only knock against Rivers is that he looks down on his dribble too much, and that he doesn't go to his left enough. Although he has the ball-handling and first step of a D-Wade, he lacks the ability to play above the rim. All his lay-ups are below the rim finishing underhand.

[The Chucker]

Says who? Swishscout and Bleacherreport citing swishscout? Swishscout is a couple friends recording satelite TV, building mixes from no more than 5-8 weekend games and then trying to act like they've seen everything there is to see on these guys. They're less reptuable than Draftexprss or nbadraft.net; they're just bringing video mixes to table. It's absolute BS that Rivers can't go left. Duke was on TV a lot and I saw him go left plenty.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zbkj3eSYAb8[/youtube]

The times here when he goes right he's accepting a screen. I've watched a ton of footage on Rivers and while he certainly prefers his right... any attempt to make it sound as though he's left hand is captain hook is an overstatement.

That said... I agree more with Dr. M's assessment of the numbers. I wish they were better. It would be easier to get excited. I don't think BC will take the bait everybody so relax... I'm just interested in seeing how he does in the next level now.

I think Jeremy Lamb will be the pick.

look bruh there r other posters who saw rivers play more n they all say the guy cannot go left. i bare saw u in the draft thread contributing so bringing up a clip aint helping making me believe otherwise. no offense u just like dem barnes fanboy tryin hard to pimp up a scrub. only this time it rivers.

[S.W.A.N]

I am becoming more comfortable with the idea of Austin Rivers being in the mix for our pick.

His potential is that of a game altering scoring guard (at the 1 or 2 or off the bench) really doesn't matter at this point. He certainly will have some adjusting to do coming into the pro game but his skill set is definitely lotto worthy.

I know he has been working with a trainer since season end so what kinda numbers he shows at combine will be really interesting.

[Live Free]

when people see 6'4 combo gaurd its easy as hell to just yell out OJ Mayo, but other than physical specs I disagree. As a scorer Mayo is more fluid, spotting up on and off the ball while Rivers is much more explosive than Mayo has ever been. That consistent breakdown ability and top handle puts Rivers in a different category. I see more prime Gilbert Arenas in Rivers than I see OJ Mayo

& His confidence (some like to call cockiness) is not a negative thing at all, he wants to be the best.. if anything had Mayo possessed this fire under the ass attitude he would live up to his potential. The talent is all there for both of them but the skill set and attitude is different with Rivers having the edge IMO

[JamesNaismith]

when people see 6'4 combo gaurd its easy as hell to just yell out OJ Mayo, but other than physical specs I disagree. As a scorer Mayo is more fluid, spotting up on and off the ball while Rivers is much more explosive than Mayo has ever been. That consistent breakdown ability and top handle puts Rivers in a different category. I see more prime Gilbert Arenas in Rivers than I see OJ Mayo

& His confidence (some like to call cockiness) is not a negative thing at all, he wants to be the best.. if anything had Mayo possessed this fire under the ass attitude he would live up to his potential. The talent is all there for both of them but the skill set and attitude is different with Rivers having the edge IMO

More explosive than Mayo has ever been and better breakdown ability?!?!

LOL

The sad thing is Mayo was arguebly better at everything at the same stage...OJ was throwing it down more often and with more force and had no problems breaking guys down please see below in the HL; go find a Rivers HL from college, find me where he's throwing down two handed slams; he's lucky to get layups -- so no definitely not more explosive. Then his handles lol....Rivers is widely criticized for being predominantly righthanded. You must of completely missed why OJ came in with ridiculous hype like he was the next great SG not just fanboys but some scouts were making him out to be the next Kobe Bryant hence why Memphis traded away Love and most people at the time thought it was a great trade.

OJ Mayo 20.7ppg, 4.5rpg and 3.3apg on 44%FG, 41%3P and 80.3%FT in 36.8mpg
A Rivers 15.4ppg 3.4rpg and 2.1apg on 43%FG, 37%3P and 67%FT in 33.2mpg

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQV69Rt1VXY[/youtube]

I think most people who don't like the comparison to Mayo don't remember what a prospect he was considered but you can see the effect the larger players in the NBA have had. There's nothing Rivers does better and their games are as like as it gets.

**to be clear I'm NOT a Mayo fan either but both these guys are highschool hyped ballhogs that need to accept their roles are great 6th men that can heat up

[Live Free]

I should have been more specific with what I meant by explosive.. I was talking as far as first step and blow by's .. neither are ever gonna come down the lane and crown someone in the nba. In my post I also did not wash up Mayo, i'm simply stating their games are not as comparable as most make it out to be.

Mayo and Rivers both score differently, Mayo is more fluid as you seen in the vid you posted.. coming off screens and mid-range whereas you'll find Rivers eating up pick and rolls slicing and dicing 2-3 defenders consistently for floaters or crazy layups if not he's chef'ing up for 3-ball with his crossovers. & Yes Rivers breakdown ability is much more superior than Mayo's you can't deny that. It doesn't mean Mayo can't just saying Rivers is better at it.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hri3JPrYjkA[/youtube]

other than both being able to spot up for jumpers, they're different. I see Gilbert in Rivers more than I see Mayo..check it out

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDyLD0eQOj4[/youtube]

[JamesNaismith]

I think I'll just leave it at agreeing to disagree. I still see alot more resemblence to Mayo but I can tell what similarity you're trying to drive at with the Arenas comparison (and seeing that HL only depresses me what a sad decline it was for Gil). Overall I just really believe he's going to have a very similar impact to 1st year Mayo depending on the team he could average 18-21ppg at the peak of his career not 24+ like Arenas.

On a GOOD team Rivers' ideal role will be 6th man; he's not cut out to be a leader for the reasons I listed before. But on a team talent deprived on the wings (like ours) he will certainly score...combine this with media attention due to being Doc's son and yes he will definitely be getting the (faux) all-star treatment from our fans.

The one thing I will give him although it may not be saying much is that if Lamb and Barnes are off the board by the time we draft (which is VERY likely) then more and more I'm feeling more inclined to draft Sullinger (first) and Rivers than an unknown like Lillard and PJ3 who I'm just fearing more and more is a mediocre bust. I rather have incredible 6th men than deadbeat starters.

**what's kind of scary (at least to me) is with news of wanting to sign Nash and more specifically Lin; I think BC's intention is obviously also garnering more media attention so if those 2 potential signings are any indication than I think Rivers may actually be Colangelo's "great" (marketing) Plan B should Lamb/Barnes not be around

[N1QUE24]

NBADraft.net has us taking Rivers

[XTC]

NBADRAFT.net profile: http://nbadraft.net/players/austin-rivers

DraftExpress profile: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Austin-Rivers-5743/

I think a lot of people are sleeping on this kid, he measured out pretty well and has SG size. I think he has potential to be the best scorer in the draft. I wouldn't mind taking him with our pick at all. We need someone who isn't scared to take over aka an alpha male, and Austin Rivers is just that, plus he's a pretty good basketball player as well.

[Throwback24]

Hey I don't mean to be an ass but the thread was made

viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1176397&start=75

I also like him.

[Waylon Mercy]

Hoops Report has us taking him with their updated mock after the Combine

http://thehoopsreport.com/draft.aspx