Some things I want to preface with, I used Feb 1st as the barometer (we could have used any arbitrary date), because its 36-38 games, they were close in records (23-13 vs 24-14) and to highlight that both played differently from the start of the year to close the season. Also ill be updating occasionally if I find things of interest/media guide stuff or anything you want to see added. Ill add some quick points, but im not one to insert alot of narrative/s. Right click to enlarge pictures. So im going to start with the stuff we already know.
The Raps this season are T8th in NetRTG (+3.5), T9th in DRTG (102.4), 9th in ORTG. And the Nets are 17th in NetRTG (-0.6), 19th in DRTG (104.9), 14th in ORTG (104.4) Since Feb 1st, Raps are 11th in NetRTG (+3.4), 14th in DRTG (104.9), 6th in ORTG (108.3). The Nets are 15th in NetRTG (+1.7), 13th in DRTG (104.1), and 14th in ORTG (105.8).
You can see the D has been slipping since Feb 1st, and weve been a great offense. Whereas BK has been fairly average on both sides of the ball. This is all stuff we all know.
Team Comps.
4 Factors. (Raps top, Nets bottom)
Misc.
Stats per 210 Possessions.
Stats per 210 with Starter/Bench.
Go To plays.
What we see is the Raps starters are much better in every category but steals. Nets bench is better. We see that BK doesnt really exploit TORs weakness in PITP, but having said that, we dont really exploit their weakness inside either. Anything you find of interest??
Offense.
Raps Offense
Nets Defense
Who is vulnerable where?
The Raps have all the advantages in the world on offense, now granted these stats include the beginning of the season, but as youve seen since Feb 1, they havent been great either. We should run alot of PnR, and possibly avoid the amount of post plays we run, seems like there isnt many sets we arent equal too or better than BK.
Raps Offense
Since Feb 1.
Raps Shot chart.
Lets talk about specific matchups, ill take the starters vs who I think they will match up against. OFF vs DEF.
KL (top) vs DW (bottom).
TR (top) vs SL (bottom).
DD (top) vs JJ (bottom).
AJ (top) vs PP (bottom).
JV (top) vs KG(bottom).
Sorry I have SL in the lineup because of amount of starts, I dont know who they start. This is where its going to fun to watch, DW is very good against PnR, KL is great in the PnR. This will be a tough matchup offensively for KL. But TR on the other hand should be able to abuse Livingston (assuming thats the matchup), SLs strengths and weaknesses play into TRs. If the nets matcup JJ/DD we should be fine, so much so I dont think the Nets can roll with a SL/JJ starting lineup for too many games, even if its helped them lately (SLs toe injury aside). AJ/PP is another matchup where we have a distinct advantage, PP cant keep AJ off the boards, or from moving with the ball, his worst 2 sets are PnR/SpotUps, which is where AJ excels. The Nets will have to go big, and maybe move PP to SF be successful, and who knows by game 1 they could have chosen that. JV should be able to exploit KG in the post, should be interesting to see who wins the battle in the PnR though because KG in limited mins has been successful and JVs been dominant.
Defense.
Raps Defense
Nets Offense
Who is vulnerable where?
This is a fun matchup too, our slipping defense, vs their offense. Really we have alot of advantages aside from ISOs (fortunately its only 11% of their offense). We can blow up all their screen actions, and get back on transition. Should be a good matchup on both sides of the ball. Lets look at where they are scoring at.
Nets Offense
Since Feb 1.
Nets Shot Chart
Starters vs who I think they will match up against. DEF vs OFF
KL (top) vs DW (bottom).
DD (top) vs SL (bottom).
TR (top) vs JJ (bottom).
AJ (top) vs PP (bottom).
JV (top) vs KG (bottom).
This will come down to how well KL defends screen action, if he does well, we will probably win. Unless they use SL on KL and post him up, DD matches up so well with SL, great D in the PnR/ISOs/etc.. he sucks in SpotUps, everything SL does well DD is better defensively. Again, the Nets should stay away from the SL in the lineup. Heres where the advantage is squarely on JJ when they do go with this lineup. TR should get abused, it wont look good, its really surprising both players #s. Aslong as they dont use PP as the screen setter, this should be another advantage offensively. JVs D has been very good, KG s O has been pretty bad, so hopefully it means we can use him as a help defender on JJ/PP.
Benches.
Now what about the benches? The Raps bench was a +2.6 NetRTG, good for 7th in NBA for the whole season. The Nets bench was 18th, with a -2.8 NetRTG. Since Feb 1st, they are 14th with a +0.6 NetRTG, and the Nets bench was 16th, with a NetRTG of -0.8.
Heres some notables.
GV OPPP (as a Rap)
DPPP
PP OPPP (as a Rap)
DPPP
JS OPPP (as a Rap)
DPPP
TH OPPP
DPPP
NDC OPPP (as a Rap)
DPPP
Nets.
Andrei Kirilenko OPPP
DPPP
Marcus Thornton OPPP (as a Net)
DPPP
Mason Plumlee OPPP
DPPP
Andray Blatche OPPP
DPPP
Alan Anderson OPPP
DPPP
The Raptors have a more efficient bench, but its weird the contrasts in them. We bring in alot of facilitators/defenders (salmons/NDC/GV) and one scorer (PP), the Nets have a weak bench in OPPP and DPPP, aside from offensively Thornton/Plumlee. Really our depth has been a strength post-trade, and its really something we should be able to exploit, should KL/DD/etc.. falter or have rough stretches.
Previous Games against eachother.
So lets talk about how they fared in their matchups.
Game 1 (BK 102 @ TOR 100)
Game 2 (BK 80 @ TOR 96)
Game 3 (TOR 104 @ BK 103)
Game 4 (TOR 97 @ BK 101)
4 Factors. (Raps top, Nets bottom).
Misc. (Raps top, Nets bottom).
Player Stats (Heres the raw numbers, Raps or Nets.)
On/Off
JV hasnt fared well against them, but most of the others are gone/not in rotation. Our bench has been very effective against them specifically. DW/Blatche/PP/Plumlee has been extremely effective while on court, so thats a big concern. Its really to me coming down to how well we defend DW, whether thats with KL/TR/GV/etc.. that gives the biggest chance for the Nets, but who didnt know that. I do think fouls will come into play, because both teams draw alot of them in relation to their offense, but again thats every game.
Conclusion: You made it this far? Its going to be a close series in terms of score, but I really think we have the ability to exploit alot of matchups. I really like the Raptors in 6. What say you? anything I missed you wanted to touch on?? Tl;dr?? Thanks for the help Veez.
As an aside, it would be nice if someone can look at the Deron Williams games, and specifically the PnR against us, and do an Undefeated/Sebastian Pruiti type breakdown.
