JV on pace to do what only 8 centers have done

[Da1RealRapsFan]

I just want to come and say PER is garbage. Carry on.

Really? I'm looking at the top 50 players by PER and the vast majority of them belong to the upper tier. Just looking at the top-10 and you have MVP candidates outside of 2 anomalies.

PER does a remarkably good job of valuing a players impact in 1 figure, especially with a sufficient sample of minutes / games. Sure it has some shortcoming like biasing towards scorers and not including specialists but it still is the best single indicator that I've seen.

Thats how you determine if a stat is good? Fair enough.

JV continually improves at a pace that would put him in legendary company

RealGM poster: "FIRE CASEY WE'RE NOT USING HIM PROPEROLY THEYRE RUINING HIS DEVELOPMENT!! HES TOO BIG AND MUSCLY MAKE HIM SKInnY AGAIN!!!!!"

Im not referencing you in particular, but I hate this narrative. "he was told to put on weight, they dont know how to develop", how many times have you read that?

How about they are developing his running technique with the Oregon coach?

How about they are developing his low post moves/foot work with Hakeem?

How about they are trying to develop his rim protection/defense?

People will only see what they want to see, and rigidly stick to things here.

I've read it probably a million times. I know I read it today which is why it was still fresh in my mind.



Did the caps and exclamation marks not give away I was making fun of posters who say this or am I missing something?



I'm arguing that the raps are doing a good job developing him and aren't just bulking him which is exactly what you then proceed to list as if i was arguing with you.

Arguments:
JV needs more touches.
(But i thought they ruined his development? Cuz he wasn't deserving of those touches in his rookie year.)
Yea but..... he... he's developing un spite of casey!




So dumb.

[Listas]

PER is like an accumulation of boxscore stats or something. A lot of big men who are on finishing ends of plays have high PER, but they're not the ones creating their own shots. I dunno if JV's per minute stats would regress with a few more minutes.

% of FG that are assisted:

Tyson Chandler .747
DeAndre Jordan .745
Kyle Korver .936
Jonas Valanciunas .545
James Harden .151
Mason Plumlee .706
Dwight Howard .607
Kevin Durant .493
Anthony Davis .720
Tyler Zeller .774

Compared to other extremely efficient players JV is doing just fine creating his own shot.

[DG88]

If anyone is denying the better line-ups, frankly, they're stupid. But that's part of the development. He's not going to go out there and be some dominant player. The line-ups with him on the floor aren't always going to be the best. But we should be establishing a long term identity with him in mind, and we're not doing that. We are establishing an undersized team that is going to get its ass beat year after year because when the perimeter shots aren't falling they're going to rely on a center who isn't prepared to suddenly take on a demanding role on offense. And the team itself won't be prepared to play an inside-out game.

These things are usually addressed during training camp, like what direction the team is taking, as far as the season goes. This year Casey's made it clear he wanted Jonas to focus on his defense and rebounding, and so far he hasn't moved from that needle. Just because we're not establishing Jonas as a focal point of the offense right now at this very moment doesn't mean that we never will. I recall the Spurs in 2011 were waning away as their stars were getting older and becoming more ineffective. They finished first in their conference but got bounced in the first round. The Tim Duncan era was over, as some thought.

Then Poppovich turned it around by abandoning the triangle offense and switching to a motion offense, which catered around Tony Parker rather than Duncan. They made a complete 180 and continued their reign.

What I'm saying that is these drastic changes in the wrinkles to our structure of the team don't happen midseason, they happen during the summer.

Except no one's asking JV to be a focal point of offense. All that is being asked to for this team to have a balanced attack instead of being purely perimeter based...this doesn't require a radical reworking of the offensive scheme. Post up JV a couple extra times a game....now that Vasquez is starting, have him run a few PnR with Amir and Jonas.
Lack of creativity from this coach will always be a glass ceiling for this team.

Where 4th in the league in Points in the Paint. The offense is more balanced then you think. It might now be the offense that you'd like , but it's effective.

[azorian]

I was excited to read this until I saw Drummond's name on the list. PER is clearly overrated

Sent from my Nexus 5 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[Mascot]

In every stat there are always one or two outliers that do not belong. Right now Brandon Wright and Hassan Whiteside should be All-Stars......

[orbesnet]

I actually think DC's (and crew) is doing a good job of developing JV, sure he could play more minutes and sure there were a few games where that seemed like a no-brainer (played great all game, why not the 4th?!) but there's no denying JV's improvement, all around I'd say.

Last game against SAC was a good testament to how far JV has come and it sure seems like he's got a lot of potential left to grow into.

The thing that bothers me is that DC always plays to the style of the opposing team, if they go small we go small, if they go big we go big... this does not bode well in the strategy column... and there's my knock on DC in a JV thread.

[twiggy2]

Casey uses JV just like the mavs did with tyson chandler while he was an assistant. This is my sole complaint with his developement of him. He is there to set screens, play d, and rebound. You get your put backs and shots within ball movement. What us fans really crave is to unleash the offensive potential.

On a side note I don't really care if we finish number one in the east. All i want is to avoid the four seed you could end up playing the cavaliers instead of the hornets. If we lose a few close games cause jv is getting 4th quarter burn as long as we still get the two seed who cares.

[Hero]

Stats praise Valanciunas.
Hero, nitrous, MVP- and GED_Education do not like what this thread provided.

I'm a Raptor fan first. What are you?

All I do is point out that PER doesn't account for everything and looking at defense, JV is in really bad company historically. Of course a JV first fan wouldn't like that.

[sweetcity]

JV is going to be special, we have a legit Marc Gasol type star on our hands.... but it takes time. I agree with moving him along slowly

[ForeverTFC]

I was using NBA stats as well, looking at the team stats but from January 1st. You are right, his problems come from 15 feet and out, which from the eye test are made of attempts off the pick and roll where he sits back and doesn't really get up on the driving player. I'm really not sure how we would alleviate that though. As much as we harp on the weight with him, he has become a much better rim protector and rebounder because of it.

I've wrote this before, but Icing would tremendously alleviate putting JV into precarious situations where he's unable to stop the ballhandler and his man. What ICE defense does is that JV wouldn't be put in position where he has to protect against penetration and the pullup jumper when he's dropping back against the ballhandler using the screen because the baseline drive would be cut off with JV plugging the driving lane and it leverages his ability to erase shots at the rim since baseline drives are extremely difficult to finish with no clean angle of the backboard and the ballhandler has a tight confinement of space to maneuver making his options limited. Essentially, the only shot conceded is the pullup jumper. The less options the ballhandler the has, the greater the chance the defense has of making a stop. JV doesn't have the mobility to contain the dribble when he ballhandler comes off of the screen and if his man can roll/pop (Horford) he has too much ground to cover that he can't effectively do under this scheme.

But I think the benefit of ICE defense is that it shortens the rotations not having to cover as much ground for everyone because in this scheme a third defender has to rotate all the way over to the strongside to stop the roll man from catching the ball or for a jumper off of a PnP action versus being on the helpside line in ICE where the ball is funnelled to the sideline and the options are much more limited for the ballhandler with the baseline pass being the best pass. If they try to pass out of the trap, the flight of the pass is longer and allows the defender to recover where as the Raptors are always in a scramble when they allow the ballhandler to use the screen.

I have to ask, what is the benefit of what we currently do then? There has to be a reason why they would employ this defense and it can't just be turnovers.

[Hero]

I hate replying and feeding your agenda, but I'll bite; understand DBPM and its limitations:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html" target="_blank" target="_blank

BPM was created to intentionally only use information that is available historically, going back to 1973-74. More recently there has been more information gathered, both in box scores and via play-by-play, but in order to create a stat with historical usefulness, those stats have been ignored for BPM. In other words - it is possible to create a better stat than BPM for measuring players, but difficult to make a better one that can also be used historically.

There are limitations on all box score stats - if the box score doesn't measure a particular contribution, a box-score-based metric can only approximate that contribution. This is not a great hindrance on the offensive side, as nearly everything of importance on offense is captured by the box score (only missing things like screen-setting), but on defense the box score is quite limited. Blocks, steals, and rebounds, along with minutes and what little information offensive numbers yield about defensive performance are all that is available. Such critical components of defense as positioning, communication, and the other factors that make Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan elite on defense can't be captured, unfortunately.

What does this mean? Box Plus/Minus is good at measuring offense and solid overall, but the defensive numbers in particular should not be considered definitive. Look at the defensive values as a guide, but don't hesitate to discount them when a player is well known as a good or bad defender.

Nobody says it is a perfect stat. What I would like to know is why PER has all of a sudden become to most dependable stat ever? Could it be because it paints JV in a good light and fits in with certain people's agenda?

The point is to provide the flip side of the coin. Nobody wants to hear about it but JV's defense is significantly worse than anyone else in that list and this will severely limit his outlook.

We have people in here who constantly makes excuses for JV. It's the system. It's his teammates. You think young Dwight or young Cousins etc had great teammates? These guys made it work and made their teammates better.

In JV's case, it's his teammates making him better while all he does is get shots for himself.

[ForeverTFC]

I hate replying and feeding your agenda, but I'll bite; understand DBPM and its limitations:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank

BPM was created to intentionally only use information that is available historically, going back to 1973-74. More recently there has been more information gathered, both in box scores and via play-by-play, but in order to create a stat with historical usefulness, those stats have been ignored for BPM. In other words - it is possible to create a better stat than BPM for measuring players, but difficult to make a better one that can also be used historically.

There are limitations on all box score stats - if the box score doesn't measure a particular contribution, a box-score-based metric can only approximate that contribution. This is not a great hindrance on the offensive side, as nearly everything of importance on offense is captured by the box score (only missing things like screen-setting), but on defense the box score is quite limited. Blocks, steals, and rebounds, along with minutes and what little information offensive numbers yield about defensive performance are all that is available. Such critical components of defense as positioning, communication, and the other factors that make Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan elite on defense can't be captured, unfortunately.

What does this mean? Box Plus/Minus is good at measuring offense and solid overall, but the defensive numbers in particular should not be considered definitive. Look at the defensive values as a guide, but don't hesitate to discount them when a player is well known as a good or bad defender.

Nobody says it is a perfect stat. What I would like to know is why PER has all of a sudden become to most dependable stat ever? Could it be because it paints JV in a good light and fits in with certain people's agenda?

The point is to provide the flip side of the coin. Nobody wants to hear about it but JV's defense is significantly worse than anyone else in that list and this will severely limit his outlook.

We have people in here who constantly makes excuses for JV. It's the system. It's his teammates. You think young Dwight or young Cousins etc had great teammates? These guys made it work and made their teammates better.

In JV's case, it's his teammates making him better while all he does is get shots for himself.

This isn't a case of stats not being perfect. You've literally picked the worst defensive stat available. At least PER makes some sense (though I'm not the biggest fan of it). DBPM literally doesn't give you anything.

[Hero]

I hate replying and feeding your agenda, but I'll bite; understand DBPM and its limitations:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank

Nobody says it is a perfect stat. What I would like to know is why PER has all of a sudden become to most dependable stat ever? Could it be because it paints JV in a good light and fits in with certain people's agenda?

The point is to provide the flip side of the coin. Nobody wants to hear about it but JV's defense is significantly worse than anyone else in that list and this will severely limit his outlook.

We have people in here who constantly makes excuses for JV. It's the system. It's his teammates. You think young Dwight or young Cousins etc had great teammates? These guys made it work and made their teammates better.

In JV's case, it's his teammates making him better while all he does is get shots for himself.

This isn't a case of stats not being perfect. You've literally picked the worst defensive stat available. At least PER makes some sense (though I'm not the biggest fan of it). DBPM literally doesn't give you anything.

How does PER show for defense? Are we just going to ignore defense? DBPM is useful. You look at the top guys and they are usually good defenders. It's not magic.

Shall I post the ESPN list of real plus minus which shows JV as the 255 ranked player in the league? The 67th ranked center? Or is DRPM also not useful?

I don't think JV will have an Eddy Curry like career any more than he does a Dwight Howard type career. Somewhere in the middle seems likely at this point. Considering the multiple stats that show his defense is awful, can we really condemn Casey for how he is handling JV's playing time?

[ForeverTFC]

Nobody says it is a perfect stat. What I would like to know is why PER has all of a sudden become to most dependable stat ever? Could it be because it paints JV in a good light and fits in with certain people's agenda?

The point is to provide the flip side of the coin. Nobody wants to hear about it but JV's defense is significantly worse than anyone else in that list and this will severely limit his outlook.

We have people in here who constantly makes excuses for JV. It's the system. It's his teammates. You think young Dwight or young Cousins etc had great teammates? These guys made it work and made their teammates better.

In JV's case, it's his teammates making him better while all he does is get shots for himself.

This isn't a case of stats not being perfect. You've literally picked the worst defensive stat available. At least PER makes some sense (though I'm not the biggest fan of it). DBPM literally doesn't give you anything.

How does PER show for defense? Are we just going to ignore defense? DBPM is useful. You look at the top guys and they are usually good defenders. It's not magic.

Shall I post the ESPN list of real plus minus which shows JV as the 255 ranked player in the league? The 67th ranked center? Or is DRPM also not useful?

There is a difference between PER and DBPM. PER is largley known as an offensive stat and most know it holds very little defensive implications. DBPM aims to measure defense and does a horrible job of it. BPM admits to the fact that DBPM is useless. It can't measure the one thing it aims to measure.

I know what you are trying to do. I know that DD is your guy and you believe he gets undeserved hate. But don't defend him by turning around and **** on the rest of the players.

The metrics show that Jonas is a good rim protector and one of the best rebounders in the league. He is ineffective 15 feet and out, and his rotations are not as crisp as they should be - though they are improving. On the offensive end, he can get his shot, he is a good offensive rebounder, and sets hard screens. He needs to develop a mid-range shot to ever reach his potential and needs to get better at facing doubles and distributing out of the post.

No, regardless of what stats you cherry pick, Jonas has neither had a legendary season, nor is he the worst defensive C in the history of basketball. He is a 22 year old C who has slowly improved and looks poised to become an important part of a winning team with big aspirations. Enjoy the ride man, life is too short to be bitter all the time.

[Hero]

There is a difference between PER and DBPM. PER is largley known as an offensive stat and most know it holds very little defensive implications. DBPM aims to measure defense and does a horrible job of it. BPM admits to the fact that DBPM is useless. It can't measure the one thing it aims to measure.

I know what you are trying to do. I know that DD is your guy and you believe he gets undeserved hate. But don't defend him by turning around and **** on the rest of the players.

The metrics show that Jonas is a good rim protector and one of the best rebounders in the league. He is ineffective 15 feet and out, and his rotations are not as crisp as they should be - though they are improving. On the offensive end, he can get his shot, he is a good offensive rebounder, and sets hard screens. He needs to develop a mid-range shot to ever reach his potential and needs to get better at facing doubles and distributing out of the post.

No, regardless of what stats you cherry pick, Jonas has neither had a legendary season, nor is he the worst defensive C in the history of basketball. He is a 22 year old C who has slowly improved and looks poised to become an important part of a winning team with big aspirations. Enjoy the ride man, life is too short to be bitter all the time.

I'm a Raptors fan. That's all it is. Me criticizng JV has nothing to do with Demar. Stop assuming. You consider DD to be my guy because I said to give him more than 2 games after he was back from injury...


Metrics show that JV is one of the worst defenders in the league. Me pointing it out has nothing to do with being a fan of another player. Why should it? It is about JV not being good on defense and as a result unlikely to be one of the main two guys to build around. It doesn't help this franchise in the least to overvalue our center and overpay him. How many teams go far in the playoffs with a center who is terrible at defense? I just pointed out D real plus minus and JV's rank but you've ignored that.Convenient.

But please explain how PER takes into account defense, which is JV's biggest weakness. I'm still waiting.

Isn't it funny how looking at PER of players under 22 isn't cherry picking but looking at other stats is?

Stay biased friend. I will continue being a Raptors fan and not a player fan.

[Vince_Carter15]

The funny thing is, with more minutes this season he would of made the all-star team. I like the progress Val is making especially at the age of 22. In 26 minutes he is averaging 12.5/8.5, that is some solid numbers. I'll let Casey develop him but I don't agree with the 4th quarter benching. We can talk about his potential but to me he is already a good big. Plus you can see the small parts in his game that have the space to develop. To me the biggest thing for him is the feel of the game and experience. That will come as he grows in confidence, gets the ball and plays more minutes.

[AkelaLoneWolf]

It'll help us in the playoffs when defenses will be swarming all over lowry and demar. jv needs to be comfortable when he's asked to carry the offense in short bursts, especially in the 4th quarter.
If you're a chess player, you know to think a few moves ahead. Developing JV won't get u wins now but it will in the playoffs and in the seasons to come. Too many people around here play checkers though.

Giving Jonas more iso moves in the post is playing chess?

Great reading comprehension. Totally got my point there.

[iktuz]

His number should go up soon, let's not forget that JV always starts playing even better when there are like two-three months until the end of the regular season.

[DG88]

Well the coaching staff trusted him yesterday with guarding Carl Landry and Jason Thompson and he did well. He rotated quickly while also getting back and protecting the rim. Again he's getting there and there have been positive signs in his defensive growth. It's up to JV to earn that trust from Casey.

[ontnut]

JV is good. He will be better. He will likely be an all-star at some point.

At the same time, leave Casey out of this. The fact that Jonas doesn't play much in the 4th has nothing to do with his PER. PER is a stat about effiiciency, not about clutch shots, or possessions, or defensive aptitude in clutch time. A high PER doesn't mean Casey is an idiot for trusting who he trusts. I'm not a Casey apologist but I'm pretty tired of hearing him get blamed for JV's lack of crunch time minutes. What was Shaq's PER? Were coaches idiots for not playing him in the 4th for certain possessions? Tim Duncan doesn't play every 4th quarter minute still. Drummond plays about the same number of minutes as JV. This is not abnormal. When was the last time you trusted an inconsistent, easily frustrated 22 year old with your livelihood/job? OK. That's the point. Maybe Casey is resting him for the playoffs, where we will need him immensely. Maybe it's a meritocracy approach, making JV prove himself. Who knows? Fact is...JV is good, he can and will be better. If I had Casey's job, yes, maybe I would play JV more minutes in the 4th, but maybe I wouldn't.