VVVs Guide to the Raps first round series v2K15.

[vini_vidi_vici]

I did this last year, got quite a response, so heres this years, the interfaces are different and I added different things, so its abit different, enjoy (I dont care about And 1s, so participate instead). I have to preface with these things tend to sprawl out and become very long, this is likely to be no different. If you see any mistakes/etc.. let me know, I might have a bad link or something in this mess. PBJ its all in IMGUR. Sorry for the pretentious title.

Lastly before we go on, as you know I dont like to impart much narrative, and let the stats speak for themselves but there are little comments here and there. If you have any interesting Qs/observations thats where ill probably derive the most opinions from.

So last year I used Feb 1st a barometer to show how teams performed at the tail end of the year (I could have used any arbitrary date really).

This season the Raps were 3rd ORTG (108.1), 23rd DRTG (104.8), 10th NetRTG (+3.2).
The Wizards this season were 19th ORTG (101.8), 4th DRTG (99.9), 12th NetRTG (+2.0).

Since Feb 1st the Raps were 7th ORTG (105.9), 22nd DRTG (105.2), 15th NetRTG (+0.7).
The Wiz were 24th ORTG (99.0), 5th DRTG (99.4), 16th NetRTG (-0.4).

So you can already see the stark contrasts. Wash is limping into the POs aswell, and they havent done much offensively all year, as opposed to the Raps being an offense only team.


Team Comps

Spoiler:

Four Factors
TOR
WAS

MISC
TOR
WAS

So with the 4 factors it illustrates how reliant each team is for their respective strength. I think you will see alot of fouls/FTAs (which could be a bad thing dependent on your tinfoil hat, NBA does hate the Raps hah, but I dont like that much of an outcome being related to officiating), and OREBs on each side. But whereas the Raps are a net positive vs OPPs in every category (except OREB%), the Wiz are a net negative (except eFG%), that should bode well for the Raps. I expect youll see alot of PITP/PTs off TOVs even if there isnt many TOVs (meaning they will convert alot of points from the few they might have).

Raps O vs Wiz D.

Spoiler:

Play Types via Synergy
TOR O (Trans/ISO/PnR B/PnR M/PostUp/SpotUp/Handoff/Cut/OffScr/PutBacks, in that order)












WAS D (Trans/ISO/PnR B/PnR M/PostUp/SpotUp/Handoff/Cut/OffScr/PutBacks, in that order)












The best PnR offense in the league vs a poor/mediocre PnR defense, when I look at these teams, this is the biggest advantage of either team on either side of the ball, which is huge for the Raps. WAS D should be able to limit the SpotUps, so thats advantageous for them, but considering the lack of reliance on them in this offense, I dont think its as crucial, and how much can they limit it if they cant contain initial PnR action? Some great numbers all around, just illustrates the balance of this team, very impressive stuff. Consequently where the WAS D is strong is negligible in terms of where we excel (because we are so good everywhere).

Defending the top 3 Sets, TOR O vs WAS D.

Spoiler:

PnR Ball.


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PnR Screener.


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SpotUps.


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ISOs.


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The Raps can exploit Beal in PnR/ISOs, and Wall too. Which helps because of the reliance on both and them both playing lots of mins, its surprising how bad they are in contrast with their D. I like alot of the matchups offensively in these 3 Sets.

Spoiler:

Scoring Stats


SportsVU Shots.



Shot Chart.


Those are some pretty nice numbers. Aside from the PullUps (volume/%s), its tough to quibble about much. Its funny ppl complain about this offense all year, im not concerned in the least (even tho it will likely regress because they are playing a great D). Its balanced (in terms of where/how/who scores) and can overcome inefficient nights by KL/DD/etc.. which is impressive IMO. LW being another ball creator is really going to shine here in the POs I think, like most I wish the heavy USG guys passed more on drives, but with the efficiency as high as it is, its tough to advocate it would change much. League avg roughly everywhere on the floor.

Raps D vs Wiz O.

Spoiler:

TOR D (Trans/ISO/PnR B/PnR M/PostUp/SpotUp/Handoff/Cut/OffScr/PutBacks, in that order)












WAS O (Trans/ISO/PnR B/PnR M/PostUp/SpotUp/Handoff/Cut/OffScr/PutBacks, in that order)












WAS isnt a very good PnR team, which is def another plus because of the struggles the Raps have had. They are an above average SpotUp team, but its one of the few places the Raps are just poor, not terrible hah. I think WAS can exploit that, but they havent shown much hot shooting all season or vs TOR. WAS has a great transition offense, the Raps have a very good transition defense, should be interesting given how much volume against TOR had, and how much WAS will want to push with Wall. I think you could see them exploit the Raps because it seems anecdotally someones always late getting back (despite the numbers), whether its mobility/complaining about a call/etc.. but it should be fun to watch.

Defending the top 3 Sets, TOR D vs WAS O.

Spoiler:

PnR Ball.


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PnR Man.


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SpotUps.


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PostUps.


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Miller was a great SpotUp, very good in PnR, it will hurt them to replace him with Sessions (altho he brings different skills to the tbl). The Pierce/Beal/Temple/Sessions SpotUp shooting is disconcerting. You can see where if 2-3 of them heat up, its going to be tough nights.

Spoiler:

Scoring Stats


SportsVU Shots.



Shot Chart


Much like the Raps they are hurt by the PullUps (volume/%s). They actually shoot the 3 good, so I wonder if they shoot more, can they be more efficient? Combined with the Raps D vs 3s, sounds pretty omninous. They dont shoot many corner 3s, and fairly avg to below avg, thats a big plus for a scrambling D like the Raps. I dont mind giving up the top of the circle 3, but WAS seems to be very effective there. I think if they get hot, it could be trouble. They rely too much on Midrange PTs tho.

Benches.

Spoiler:

Now what about the benches?
The Raps bench was 1st ORTG (109.1), 23rd DRTG (104.3), 2nd NetRTG (+5.3).
The Wiz bench was 23rd ORTG (98.9), 17th DRTG (103.1), 22nd NetRTG (-4.1).

Since Feb 1st Raps bench was 2nd ORTG (107.2), 29th DRTG (106.9), 13th NetRTG (+0.3)
Since Feb 1st Wiz bench was 28th ORTG (93.8), 6th DRTG (99.3), 22nd NetRTG (-5.5)

So even tho the bench has dipped specifically defensively, they still have a decided advantage micro/macro. Its going to be an ugly D/ugly O when the Wiz have the ball tho.

Previous Games against eachother.

Spoiler:

So lets talk about how they fared in their matchups this year.
Game 1 WAS 84 @ TOR 103, Nov 7th.





Game 2 TOR 120 @ WAS 116 OT, Jan 31st.





Game 3 WAS 93 @ TOR 95, Feb 11th.





First thing I noticed was both teams were mediocre rim protectors in the games (not that they are great outside of their games). Raps beat them despite lower FTr/3PTr in game 2, so thats a good sign for this squad aswell. Getting beat Only 1 game with Beal, and thats the OT game, so should be a different dynamic in terms of what you derive from these h2h games. Temple also played quite abit against them, wonder how his injury is progressing and how much time he will see.

More MatchUp Stats.

Spoiler:

Four Factors (OPP = WAS).


MISC (OPP = WAS).


ADV Stats.



On/Off.






SportsVu Shot Stats.
TOR


WAS



First you can see how the matchup data differs from the season data (obv) so we have to readjust some of the earlier thinking some, dependent on your value of matchups vs season data. First you can start to see WAS recipe to win, FTr/OREB%/PITP/FBPs. If they can control the pace in that sense, it will help their offense score with the Raps. I would assume most of the FBPs/2nd Chance PTs would result in PITP, so I think much of that will go hand in hand. Getting to the line will be huge for them. Wall/Beal/Gortat, are huge for them vs Raps. The 3PT shooting killed the Wiz, that is the biggest discrepancy, 22.5% of the FGAs were "open" 3s, and the %s speak for themselves.

Conclusion: You made it this far? tl;dr?? I like the Raps in 7. The PnR should be a huge factor on both sides of the ball and for obvious reasons. The Raps can dominate it offensively, and limit them defensively (because they are so bad). I think the bench should overwhelm the Wiz, and build/regain leads should the starters falter/go off. The Raps have alot of favorable matchups, and advantageous sets to exploit the Wiz.

I think its going to come down to how well they contain Wall and run the shooters off the 3PT line, unlike Jack I dont mind closing out hard if the end result is open/sorta open long 2s, a step inside the line. One thing WASH does alot of is shoot MidRange Js (4th in FGAs), so that can be beneficial, but conversely one team allows a higher MidRange FG% than TOR (DEN), so maybe despite the logic it could be a good thing for WAS. For the Raps, the they will need the 3s of PP/TR/KL/GV/LW dropping, aside from that, the other stuff im not concerned about (FTr/PITP/etc..) because thats where I think they are more consistent (even if only average in some areas). I think Ill be taking alot of unders in this series, because should the Raps miss open 3s/C&S 3s, combined with WAS porous O, could be some ugly games.

Also ill bump this with VantageSports/Media Guide stuff/etc.. I find of interest prior to tipoff, so check back occasionally I guess. Thanks for all the help Veez. Hope its easy to read and the spoilers help make it easier too.

Disclaimer: I rarely participate here anymore because of the terrible discourse in this forum (The tribe has spoken and ive withdrawn/went elsewhere). So if all your going to do is type "_____ sucks", "tl;dr", etc.. please dont participate in this thread, thanks.

[Detective]

Amazing information gathering, as always. Will take some time to thoroughly digest this.

BTW, it's sad to hear that you are no longer regularly posting here.

[JaysRule15]

Nice info VVV. I know you don't post here a lot now because of the content in this forum, but know that you almost single-handedly got me into advanced basketball stats.

[TheDoctor]

I need to get to a computer because I can't read it on my phone. Looking forward to delving in.

[UnRealGM]

Good read and I agree that it will likely go 6 or 7.

[ACNBATORONTO]

Great information especially the sections on defending the top 3 sets. I hope Amir can stay healthy through the duration of this series I think his ability to hedge and get back in time to protect the rim/block the passing lane could really help us.

What resources do you use to gather these stats?

[Northface82]

Hey V,

This was one hell of an interesting post.
There is just so much information to process here, its ridiculous.

For one, I always had a hunch GV is a much better "spot up" shooter, and this confirmed it.
Hopefully we see more of that from him.
Also the PnR factor is hilarious, Demar is going to have his way with them.

Pretty damn good analysis from a #s POV, really.
Thanks for sharing!

[pbj]

I had no idea their PnR defence was so attoricous.. Lou Will is going to make some serious money in the next two weeks.

[OakleyDokely]

Great post.

vini_vidi_vici is a realgm poster while Doug Smith is employed by a national newspaper.

What is wrong with this world.

[vini_vidi_vici]

Hey V,

This was one hell of an interesting post.
There is just so much information to process here, its ridiculous.

For one, I always had a hunch GV is a much better "spot up" shooter, and this confirmed it.
Hopefully we see more of that from him.
Also the PnR factor is hilarious, Demar is going to have his way with them.

Pretty damn good analysis from a #s POV, really.
Thanks for sharing!

Yea I think when you get GV off the ball, hes a much better performer. But with the injuries to DD/KL our high USG players, and during the DD injury moving KL to the SG off the ball, exposed hes not ready to be the primary PG/ball handler despite the good passing. I think havin GV bring the ball up off the bench, and giving it to LW/DD/KL is a better method for him going forward rather than initiating offense.

Its going to take awhile to process, ive been doing this the past 2 days, so take your time and anything of interest, an observation, post here if you want.

[Clutch Carter]

Good stuff. FYI your first link on the bench stats is 404'ing, missing a pound character

Orig

Code: Select all

http://stats.nba.com/league/team/!/advanced/?StarterBench=Bench&sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1


Fixed

Code: Select all

http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/advanced/?StarterBench=Bench&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1


[tecumseh18]

As vvv mentions, an obvious advantage the Raptors have over the Wizards is the bench. I remember the Wiz commentators during the 3rd quarter of the early season blowout being obviously dismayed by the amount of firepower coming off our bench.

BUT, we all know that rotations tighten in the playoffs, particularly with the longer gaps between games. I'm wondering if there's a way of re-weighting the stats to reflect the fact that only the top 8 will be in the rotation. Does that mean JJ won't see much action? Nothing would surprise me at this point.

And it would be even more accurate if only the stats derived from games with the key players - Beal, DD, Lowry, Nene - playing counted. Of course, the problem with such an approach is that the sample sizes are smaller.

[vini_vidi_vici]

Great post.

vini_vidi_vici is a realgm poster while Doug Smith is employed by a national newspaper.

What is wrong with this world.

Who reads newspapers anymore, I stopped doing the Dailys 2 yrs ago hah. Stupid paywalls, and hyperbole.

Having said that, instead of being some beat writer, if you guys could campaign for me to get access to SportsVu data, that ill be eternally grateful for, and will clandestinely post here.

[RokoLeniUkic]

I think its going to come down to how well they contain Wall and run the shooters off the 3PT line, unlike Jack I dont mind closing out hard if the end result is open/sorta open long 2s, a step inside the line. One thing WASH does alot of is shoot MidRange Js (4th in FGAs), so that can be beneficial, but conversely one team allows a higher MidRange FG% than TOR (DEN), so maybe despite the logic it could be a good thing for WAS. For the Raps, the they will need the 3s of PP/TR/KL/GV/LW dropping, aside from that, the other stuff im not concerned about (FTr/PITP/etc..) because thats where I think they are more consistent (even if only average in some areas). I think Ill be taking alot of unders in this series, because should the Raps miss open 3s/C&S 3s, combined with WAS porous O, could be some ugly games.

This is what scares me the most to be honest. I often felt we lost/won a lot of games solely on the fact that our 3pt shot was working or not.

When it didn't work out, we kept going at it because it seemed that the coaching staff didn't know what else to do. I remember one game in december or january we kept trying 3s and we missed 5-6 in a row and Jack said out loud what we all thought "Alright, try something else..." The other team just kept coming at us with 3s, penetration and PnRs. But it seemed like there was no "something else" for us. We got blown out.

Like you said,the other stuff, I'm not concerned about, but this... Goddamn it if we have to rely on Ross, GV and 2Pat hitting 3s for us to win a series.

Also, Wizards defense is good, but they seem to have trouble against slashers who go for the foul. Luckly, we have DeRozan in our starting five and Lou off the bench who are great at it.

Anyway, I think we'll get this one in 5, taking one on the road and winning all at home. We obviously grew and I think we won't make the same mistakes as last year. Compared to the Nets of last year, Washington doesn't have anyone else other than JWall who can just go off and win a game by themselves. They have Nene and Gortat who will cause problems, but I don't see any other guys who can mishandle us like Paul Pierce, JJ and DWill did. I doubt 0 minutes, 1TO will be a factor for them. He'll be on DeRozan I guess, attack him early, he's old and he'll be in foul trouble real quick.

I also agree with your disclaimer. As I said in another thread, this forum had an influx of dumb 15 year olds...

[Kevin Willis]

I think the Raps in 6. I heard we're the only team in the league with 5 players that shot 200 3s. That's where we can exploit Was. Also looking at the effectiveness of Lou against Was is very impressive. Plus our stretch big(s) move Nene / Gortat away from the basket.

Washington's identity is kind of mixed. They have speed at the guards and slow in the front court. Might be the reason our PnR is effective. Good team but we're just a bad matchup for them.

[vini_vidi_vici]

@ClutchCarter, thanks and its fixed.

As vvv mentions, an obvious advantage the Raptors have over the Wizards is the bench. I remember the Wiz commentators during the 3rd quarter of the early season blowout being obviously dismayed by the amount of firepower coming off our bench.

BUT, we all know that rotations tighten in the playoffs, particularly with the longer gaps between games. I'm wondering if there's a way of re-weighting the stats to reflect the fact that only the top 8 will be in the rotation. Does that mean JJ won't see much action? Nothing would surprise me at this point.

And it would be even more accurate if only the stats derived from games with the key players - Beal, DD, Lowry, Nene - playing counted. Of course, the problem with such an approach is that the sample sizes are smaller.

I posted the individual #s (sorta) in the on/off/adv/play type parts.

I think there is merit, but I wouldnt be surprised to see guys have their mins reduced/etc.. but I dont think its going to be as dramatic as the cliche (shorter benches) implies. I could be wrong, but I think we will see similar rotations, with the bench mob closing 1st/3rds, starting 2nds/4ths.

I think its going to come down to how well they contain Wall and run the shooters off the 3PT line, unlike Jack I dont mind closing out hard if the end result is open/sorta open long 2s, a step inside the line. One thing WASH does alot of is shoot MidRange Js (4th in FGAs), so that can be beneficial, but conversely one team allows a higher MidRange FG% than TOR (DEN), so maybe despite the logic it could be a good thing for WAS. For the Raps, the they will need the 3s of PP/TR/KL/GV/LW dropping, aside from that, the other stuff im not concerned about (FTr/PITP/etc..) because thats where I think they are more consistent (even if only average in some areas). I think Ill be taking alot of unders in this series, because should the Raps miss open 3s/C&S 3s, combined with WAS porous O, could be some ugly games.

This is what scares me the most to be honest. I often felt we lost/won a lot of games solely on the fact that our 3pt shot was working or not.

When it didn't work out, we kept going at it because it seemed that the coaching staff didn't know what else to do. I remember one game in december or january we kept trying 3s and we missed 5-6 in a row and Jack said out loud what we all thought "Alright, try something else..." The other team just kept coming at us with 3s, penetration and PnRs. But it seemed like there was no "something else" for us. We got blown out.

Like you said,the other stuff, I'm not concerned about, but this... Goddamn it if we have to rely on Ross, GV and 2Pat hitting 3s for us to win a series.

Also, Wizards defense is good, but they seem to have trouble against slashers who go for the foul. Luckly, we have DeRozan in our starting five and Lou off the bench who are great at it.

Anyway, I think we'll get this one in 5, taking one on the road and winning all at home. We obviously grew and I think we won't make the same mistakes as last year. Compared to the Nets of last year, Washington doesn't have anyone else other than JWall who can just go off and win a game by themselves. They have Nene and Gortat who will cause problems, but I don't see any other guys who can mishandle us like Paul Pierce, JJ and DWill did.

I also agree with your disclaimer. As I said in another thread, this forum had an influx of dumb 15 year olds...

I hesitate taking the Raps in anything more than 6, because I think the offense will dry up at times, and the Raps D has had me concerned since last year. I do understand the thinking though and am not dismissing it.

If we miss 3s, it will be tough, but we have more than enough balance to counter that, with the high FTr/OREB%/low TOVr/etc.. I agree it could be tough but as a whole, I think the reliance on 3s is abit overplayed here (in this forum). Teams are purposely packing the paint, and forcing guys like TR/PP/etc.. to beat us, so ofcourse when you drive, they are the safety outlet so you take the 3. Despite that, they still score alot in the paint/FT line/etc.. so its not as bad as say an ATL-esque team. I mean this same argument can be made for almost every single PO team.

I think in terms of being a great D, the Wiz are it, but in terms of where we matchup, its a big benefit for the Raps.

[Rhythm043]

Raps in 7 wont happen. You know if it goes 7 games that the league is taking control of that one. The refs will have their closed door pre game meetings and discuss what they are "going to call and not call" like Tim Donaghy exposed.

[Hero]

And1. Saves me the trouble of looking this stuff up.

I do think that the game changes quite a bit in the playoffs and the Wizards will be markedly different to what they were in the regular season.

[vini_vidi_vici]

And1. Saves me the trouble of looking this stuff up.

I do think that the game changes quite a bit in the playoffs and the Bulls will be markedly different to what they were in the regular season.

Bulls? wrong thread or typo??

K I have to go be productive, ill check back tomorrow/tonight to respond and/or post anything of interest.

[MVP-]

I think the Raps in 6. I heard we're the only team in the league with 5 players that shot 200 3s. That's where we can exploit Was. Also looking at the effectiveness of Lou against Was is very impressive. Plus our stretch big(s) move Nene / Gortat away from the basket.

Washington's identity is kind of mixed. They have speed at the guards and slow in the front court. Might be the reason our PnR is effective. Good team but we're just a bad matchup for them.

Wasn't the stat the only team where 5 players scored 100 or more 3s?

VVV, amazing work as usual. I'm sure you're still laughing at how JV still ain't doing squat in the overall scheme.