OAKLEY_2 wrote:ciueli wrote:Here is the basic math for what bringing DeMar back would mean.
Current guaranteed contracts for 2016-2017:
DeMarre Carroll $14,200,000
Kyle Lowry $12,000,000
Cory Joseph $7,315,000
Patrick Patterson $6,050,000
Jonas Valanciunas $14,382,023
Terrence Ross $10,000,000
Lucas Nogueira $1,921,320
Bruno Caboclo $1,589,640
Delon Wright $1,577,280
Norman Powell $874,636
Total = $69,909,899
So basically $70M. Add in two draft picks this year, say the 9th and 26th which adds around $2.6M and $1.2M respectively and the total is up to around $74M.
The salary cap for 2016-2017 is projected to be $92M, which would leave the Raptors with about $18M in cap space. DeMar's cap hold is $15M so the team effectively doesn't have cap space if the goal is to retain him short of dumping other contracts.
But lets assume the Raptors sign DeMar to a 5 year max contract, which will start at around $25.8M. New total = $100M
Then lets assume that the Raptors use the full Mid-Level exception on Bismack Biyombo or another player (or players). New total = $105.6M.
The luxury tax is going to be around $110M, so the team is pushing up against the tax already, just in the first year of DeMar's mammoth deal.
Then look at 2017-2018. The Raptors have Kyle Lowry and Patrick Patterson expiring, plus raises for almost everyone on the team. The financials look something like:
DeMar DeRozan $27,700,000
DeMarre Carroll $14,800,000
Cory Joseph $7,630,000
Jonas Valanciunas $15,460,675
Terrence Ross $10,500,000
Lucas Nogueira $2,947,305
Bruno Caboclo $2,451,225
Delon Wright $1,645,200
Norman Powell $1,014,746
9th Pick in 2016 draft $2,730,000
26th Pick in 2016 draft $1,286,160
Player at MLE $5,850,000
Total = $94,015,311
Add in two late first round draft picks (say $3M total), and cap holds for Lowry and Patterson ($18M and $9M respectively) and again the Raptors have no salary cap space (theoretical 108M cap). Resign Kyle Lowry to anything close to a max contract ($25M or more) and Pat to something in the $10M range (he might even get a bigger offer than that) and the Total = $132M.
Which is above what the Luxury tax level is projected to be in 2017-2018 ($128M), putting the Raptors in the position of having to dump contracts just to avoid the luxury tax.
To sum up, trying to keep all of DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Ross, Patrick Patterson and DeMarre Carroll is going to be prohibitively expensive long term. By 2017-2018, just those seven players will likely cost well in excess of $110M. It's important to think hard right now about who is a key player on the team and who isn't because decisions made this offseason will have important long term implications.
Good post. I don't think we can afford him either. It probably also means we will not be maxing Lowry at his age when his deal expires.
Agreed, very good post. I've been thinking about this team from a financial perspective a lot too lately with DeMar's free agency looming. Couple of things though:
1. You mentioned us not being able to afford DeMar. Technically we can. We have his Bird Rights that allow us to go over the cap to re-sign him so that won't be a problem.
2. I'm not too worried about having to pay the tax. A vast majority of title winners are almost always paying the tax and especially being a team that isn't exactly a free agent hotspot, that is one bullet we will have to be prepared to bite if we do ever want to build a title contender. I'm absolutely not advocating signing guys to absurd contracts but I think it's likely that we'll have to pay tax to get to where we want to go.
However, I completely agreed on DeRozan. From the day Masai locked up Carroll at $60M/4yrs, it was clear that some big changes are coming. We have all our guys as cheap as they're going to come and we're still struggling against the Pacers. It's become obvious we're missing some thing(s). So if we truly want to compete on the big stage, we simply CANNOT afford to pay DeRozan anything close to the max, come what may. The cap won't stay high forever so like I said before, the teams that over pay this summer are the future treadmillers of the league. However DeMar is an all-star SG in a league shallow with SG talent so teams will be interested. It'll be up to Masai to sit DeMar down and tell him the truth and see where it goes from now. But one things for certain - the team as currently constructed is NOT going to work financially and I don't think it takes us to to the ECF, much less the Finals. My guess is there is going to be a lot of big salary moving this summer. Masai needs to make his move now depending on what DeMar does.
If DeMar wants to stay here for a MAX amount of $90-100M/5yrs, I'd be okay with that. Anything more and it might just be best to S&T him or let him walk and move on. Since Lowry is expiring next summer as well, might as well move him too and just rebuild.You just can win big on a team with DeRozan making the max unless you draft the next Lebron James.
If we can get DeRozan to agree to those terms then we can package Ross, Cojo, Bebe and the 9th pick to the Hawks for a S&T'd Horford ($100M/4yrs). This is a good way to salary and lesser talent into a 3rd star. I would also look at moving JV to Boston for some picks, role players and expiring deals so we can open up some capspace for next year when we have to pay Lowry and Patterson. We can then turn those picks and the ones we already have into a guy like Dieng who's young and cheap, Covington etc.
Point is, Masai should be doing a lot of wheeling and dealing. It's the only way for us to have a contender at this point but the tax is inevitable. Especially with the new market and the competition in the market for certain skillsets or certain players. It's going to be virtually impossible not to overpay but we want to avoid it as much as we can
