Bleacher Report predicts Raptors Records for next 5 Years

[Mikistan]

[Steelo Green]

Because we will stay static for 5 years? How can anyone make this kind of projection. So much can change in 2 years, let alone 5.

[DreamTeam09]

plz lock thread

[toast]

I think there is a real viable way to show press bias in sports.

If somebody (not me because I am too lazy), were to go back 5-10 years and do a comparison of sports magazine and press predictions pre-season for all 30 teams and then simple calculate the plus minus of average of those predictions compared to actual record, you could get a fairly accurate measurement of positive or negative bias. There would be a large enough sample (there could be found easily 30-40 predictions) , and while of course there are variances of one season anomalies it is the predictions of the following year and the impact of off=season changes that I think can paint an accurate bias of press bias. So if you have a team like New York that makes changes and across hundreds of predictions they are predicted to have a greater result than they do this can show overall positive bias. Likewise if a team makes changes or little changes and pronosticators predict limited impact or a sudden decrease in predicted wins with no reason and the regular season so otherwise it can show a negative bias. This is particularly true if it happens over multiple seasons. I think that 10 years has a enough of a span to allow up and down swings of all teams to show a real correlation.

Again this is antidotal and has possible bias, but I would be very surprised if Toronto didn't have the strongest negative bias of the league. It seems that we are always predicted to be worse than we are. Again it could be personal bias which is why I would be very curious about the study.

[RaptorsLife]

The tredmill is real ya'll

[teamLeiweke]

Do you have a link to the full article?

Are they assuming Lowry isn't signing back? If so, their predictions would make more sense.

Weird that they are so sure he isn't returning. Did they do the same article for the Pacers with Paul George leaving or the Clippers with Chris Paul bouncing? Strange. Seems like the usual off-season negative click bait hoping that Raptors fans will retaliate lol

[RaptorsNorth]

Lol only the bleacher report. How can you even predict this ? These guys are just bored and looking for hits.

[teamLeiweke]

Do you have a link to the full article?

Are they assuming Lowry isn't signing back? If so, their predictions would make more sense.

Weird that they are so sure he isn't returning. Did they do the same article for the Pacers with Paul George leaving or the Clippers with Chris Paul bouncing? Strange. Seems like the usual off-season negative click bait hoping that Raptors fans will retaliate lol

"Indiana Pacers

2017-18 Projected Record: 41-41

2018-19 Projected Record: 30-52

2019-20 Projected Record: 31-51

2020-21 Projected Record: 33-49

2021-22 Projected Record: 35-47

The Indiana Pacers should enjoy one more season of competitiveness after they re-sign Jeff Teague and essentially run back the same core for the 2017-18 campaign.

Then, Paul George leaves for the Los Angeles Lakers."

They DID do the same for the Pacers LOL

I didn't know Bleacher Report had paid proven psychics on their staff. Wow.

What a dumb over reaching article.

Here is the full piece for anyone who is interested:

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2715200.amp.html

At least I'm less vexed about their Raptors predictions now lol

[Potential]

Everyone report this article for making us look like a mediocre under 500 team. Masai would never do this to us

[dukes_wild]

For everyone who's wondering, yes BR made this prediction as what the team would be without Lowry, as they are predicting Lowry doesn't re-sign

[JShuttlesworth]

This would be operating under the assumption that the Raptors lose Lowry this offseason, in which case the 42-40 prediction might not be that far off. I think we would end up somewhere in the 42-46 win range, next year, if that happens.

Predicting 5 years out doesn't really make any sense though, especially the 5th year (we have no one under contract currently in 2021/2022, so how can you make a prediction on something like that? Similarly, the only player currently under contract for 2020/2021 is DeRozan, and only four players under contract in 19/20. So in reality, this article doesn't have too much logic behind it.

That being said, if Lowry / Ibaka are re-signed this offseason, I would still agree with the downward trajectory as our core ages, from around 50-42 wins during that time.

[Steelo Green]

For everyone who's wondering, yes BR made this prediction as what the team would be without Lowry, as they are predicting Lowry doesn't re-sign

Yes, everyone knows that.

But to think that means it will be 5 years of Derozan and nothing else changing is ridiculous. We could have an injured Derozan year and get a top 5 pick and be a contender over night.

Predictions past one season are ridiculous

[Double Helix]

These kinds of exercises are futile for one very simple reason. Team-building, including blowing it all up or tearing it down, is fluid and projecting past a single offseason is nothing more than wildly guessing.

If we lose Lowry we may attempt something very different entirely. If we largely kept the same team besides him and Pat we would undoubtedly be worse but would Masai keep it that way? Hell no.

If he fell way back after a year without Lowry and didn't have a Lowry-level impact player to get to play with Derozan and didn't think he could get one via trades he'd blow the whole thing up. Simple as that. Derozan would be okay with that if told there was no clear path back up. Derozan would then be moved with others and we'd tank.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[YogurtProducer]

So bad. If Lowry leaves we likely blow it up and are in the 20 win range by 2019

[macNcheese3]

Nearly impossible to make a prediction as they have- if anything we should get better (if we retain KL & Ibaka).

[RaptorHusky]

Is quoting BR, SAS and some further homers not banned on this forum?

[dagger]

If the Sixers trade for the first overall pick, they don't want Lowry. And even if they like Lowry, this trade attempt betrays BC's desire to put a young star at PG. So the Lowry market isn't all that it seems.

[Yeezus_]

What kind of trash article is this?

[7 Footer]

That's 5 years worth of evaluating...

[Rejected]

What is the point of even making this article. Meaningless hateraid.