Semi OT: Anyone lose money in the crypto crash?

[BlackThought]

There's no chance its an infationary hedge since most of its drop was when rates were going up the most.

On May 10th of 2020

Gold was $1704 per ounce
Bitcoin was $8756 per coin.

March 20 of 2023

Gold is $2003 per ounce
Bitcoin is $28000 per coin.

Neither are great inflation hedges but since the covid situation that led to this entire inflation problem, you would be better off holding bitcoin than gold.

Well since the beginning of covid wasn't the beginnning of inflation, this really isn't, in any way, meaningful. I could have bought AMD or any meme stock at the start of covd and sold it high and made a ton. AMD is not an inflationary hedge.

I mean when they started handing out free money that's usually when you start worrying about inflation. You're not going to buy assets at peak inflation to hedge inflation. That's not how any of this works.

You could've bought bitcoin for under $10,000 up until late September of 2020. If by that time you still haven't realized that inflation could be an issue, it's tough luck my friend, some people are destined to be f'd. The first stimulus checks were handed out in April of 2020, so even if you are slow, that's like almost half a year of reaction time.

Compare to any asset bought at around that time, bitcoin is right up there along with any other asset in terms of hedging inflation, no sell high needed.

[Johnny Bball]

On May 10th of 2020

Gold was $1704 per ounce
Bitcoin was $8756 per coin.

March 20 of 2023

Gold is $2003 per ounce
Bitcoin is $28000 per coin.

Neither are great inflation hedges but since the covid situation that led to this entire inflation problem, you would be better off holding bitcoin than gold.

Well since the beginning of covid wasn't the beginnning of inflation, this really isn't, in any way, meaningful. I could have bought AMD or any meme stock at the start of covd and sold it high and made a ton. AMD is not an inflationary hedge.

I mean when they started handing out free money that's usually when you start worrying about inflation. You're not going to buy assets at peak inflation to hedge inflation. That's not how any of this works.

You could've bought bitcoin for under $10,000 up until late September of 2020. If by that time you still haven't realized that inflation could be an issue, it's tough luck my friend, some people are destined to be f'd. The first stimulus checks were handed out in April of 2020, so even if you are slow, that's like almost half a year of reaction time.

Compare to any asset bought at around that time, bitcoin is right up there along with any other asset in terms of hedging inflation, no sell high needed.

Please tell me the reason bitcoin hedges inflation beyond because you and others believe it does.

Because there is no reason, fundamentally.

Nor is there a reason technically since interest rates didnt start rising until last year, and bitcoin tanked.

[BlackThought]

Well since the beginning of covid wasn't the beginnning of inflation, this really isn't, in any way, meaningful. I could have bought AMD or any meme stock at the start of covd and sold it high and made a ton. AMD is not an inflationary hedge.

I mean when they started handing out free money that's usually when you start worrying about inflation. You're not going to buy assets at peak inflation to hedge inflation. That's not how any of this works.

You could've bought bitcoin for under $10,000 up until late September of 2020. If by that time you still haven't realized that inflation could be an issue, it's tough luck my friend, some people are destined to be f'd. The first stimulus checks were handed out in April of 2020, so even if you are slow, that's like almost half a year of reaction time.

Compare to any asset bought at around that time, bitcoin is right up there along with any other asset in terms of hedging inflation, no sell high needed.

Please tell me the reason bitcoin hedges inflation beyond because you and others believe it does.

Because there is no reason, fundamentally.

Nor is there a reason technically since interest rates didnt start rising until last year, and bitcoin tanked.

That's a whole different discussion. Your post was about whether bitcoin was an inflation hedge and it has been for this current inflation problem.

Call it luck, call it a scam, call it whatever. The fact is if an average Joe realized that he had a covid related inflation problem at a reasonable time, had he bought bitcoin at that time there's a good chance that he would be happy today.

[ItsDanger]

Anything that increases in value during inflation can be viewed as an inflation hedge. Recent crypto appreciation is in response to institutional credit issues. It was a certainty from miscues in 2008. Losses need to occur in order for this to be fixed. Hopefully, adults will be at the negotiating table and bring actual long lasting stability back.

[shefcurry]

I mean when they started handing out free money that's usually when you start worrying about inflation. You're not going to buy assets at peak inflation to hedge inflation. That's not how any of this works.

You could've bought bitcoin for under $10,000 up until late September of 2020. If by that time you still haven't realized that inflation could be an issue, it's tough luck my friend, some people are destined to be f'd. The first stimulus checks were handed out in April of 2020, so even if you are slow, that's like almost half a year of reaction time.

Compare to any asset bought at around that time, bitcoin is right up there along with any other asset in terms of hedging inflation, no sell high needed.

Please tell me the reason bitcoin hedges inflation beyond because you and others believe it does.

Because there is no reason, fundamentally.

Nor is there a reason technically since interest rates didnt start rising until last year, and bitcoin tanked.

That's a whole different discussion. Your post was about whether bitcoin was an inflation hedge and it has been for this current inflation problem.

Call it luck, call it a scam, call it whatever. The fact is if an average Joe realized that he had a covid related inflation problem at a reasonable time, had he bought bitcoin at that time there's a good chance that he would be happy today.

Unless he was on FTX...

[Johnny Bball]

Please tell me the reason bitcoin hedges inflation beyond because you and others believe it does.

Because there is no reason, fundamentally.

Nor is there a reason technically since interest rates didnt start rising until last year, and bitcoin tanked.

That's a whole different discussion. Your post was about whether bitcoin was an inflation hedge and it has been for this current inflation problem.

Call it luck, call it a scam, call it whatever. The fact is if an average Joe realized that he had a covid related inflation problem at a reasonable time, had he bought bitcoin at that time there's a good chance that he would be happy today.

Unless he was on FTX...

Or Qujadriga. Which is what would have happens to a lot of canadians.

[ratul]

If one thinks that crypto is gonna hold up in a global financial crisis while Credit Suisse gets zeroed, then this is a lol in my view. Still limited liquidity but getting better which will make for an epic short

[refshateRaps]

If one thinks that crypto is gonna hold up in a global financial crisis while Credit Suisse gets zeroed, then this is a lol in my view. Still limited liquidity but getting better which will make for an epic short

Nothing holds up in a global financial crises or any crash for that matter. Absolutely Nothing.

Tho not sure how that applies to today?

One thing I know, is they have to find ways to shake the legs of the herd over the balcony before any massive runs, always. Banking sector is Centre stage for that climatic scene for the broader markets. Meanwhile BTC (already had its big scene) & Tech are lol to anyone short or fearful right thru this current greater market climatic shake-out turn.

Will keep loading any market weakness they give me this week. There's a time to look for shorts and a time to load buckets to get paid large. This one seem crystal clear to me.

What do I know? As always follow your own reads.

[wegotthabeet]

That's a whole different discussion. Your post was about whether bitcoin was an inflation hedge and it has been for this current inflation problem.

Call it luck, call it a scam, call it whatever. The fact is if an average Joe realized that he had a covid related inflation problem at a reasonable time, had he bought bitcoin at that time there's a good chance that he would be happy today.

Unless he was on FTX...

Or Qujadriga. Which is what would have happens to a lot of canadians.

or maybe the point of bitcoin is to self custody it.

[Johnny Bball]

Unless he was on FTX...

Or Qujadriga. Which is what would have happens to a lot of canadians.

or maybe the point of bitcoin is to self custody it.

Maybe? Or maybe you're not sure how the Quadriga story went and how people got scammed? But people are buying/betting on bitcoin/crypto in a lot of different ways now where they don't quite do that (If I understand you right). For example... https://money.tmx.com/en/stock-list/CRYPTO_FUNDS_LIST

[BlackThought]

So now we are saying that bitcoin is an inflation hedge unless you lost your bitcoin in a scam or an exchange collapse? I am still interested in the original post which I made a response to but it looks like I'm the only one.

This is valid criticism though. An exchange or a lending service that offers an unrealistic yield of 7, 8, or in Anchor Protocol's case, 18%, and you will have some people who think that it's safe enough to put their life savings in them. Personally I don't see any way around that besides more government regulation. That said, as hyped up as FTX was, it was only the 3rd or 4th(?) biggest exchange during its peak. It was not nearly as devastating as say the Mt. Gox situation years ago. But sadly, the number of people who can't tell the difference between an exchange and a bank is still too damn high.

Bitcoin does come with a learning curve in terms of self-custody. I've taught a handful of people on how to do it and on average it takes about 1-2 hours for someone to become confident enough to do it. Hopefully one day it'll become much more accessible but for those that are comfortable with using it, it is very rewarding when it comes to investment returns.

[wegotthabeet]

Or Qujadriga. Which is what would have happens to a lot of canadians.

or maybe the point of bitcoin is to self custody it.

Maybe? Or maybe you're not sure how the Quadriga story went and how people got scammed? But people are buying/betting on bitcoin/crypto in a lot of different ways now where they don't quite do that (If I understand you right). For example... https://money.tmx.com/en/stock-list/CRYPTO_FUNDS_LIST

i know all about Quadriga. been in bitcoin since 2013, so i've seen hundreds of shady exchanges including Quadriga. you shouldn't leave your btc on any exchange. if you view bitcoin as something to just speculate with then Fidelity now offers an ETF which you can hold in your TFSA. for those who don't want to self custody or don't have the technical capacity to do so.

[Ackshun]

"Buying the dip" can be a smart strategy in bull markets. We are without question in a bear market. The bottom of this bear market is unknown at this stage. You could be right that last Nov was the bottom or you could easily be wrong.

I know this, I know this, I know this.

But ... I couldn't resist buying a number of Canadian banks at 3:55 pm today. Why not take advantage of the SVB panic? Obviously I'm hoping for a bounce-back on Monday, at which point I might take profit, given the overall bear market.

Whatever happens, I'll still get the dividend (won't I?) The counter argument is that I can get better interest rate on GICs than the 4.5% yield TD is offering, while maintaining the value of the initial investment.

it's interesting....i was questioning myself when i didn't buy in december, ....i guess we'll have to see what happens

Banks about to rally hard when the market opens in 4 minutes.

I went all in on 10 Nasdaq stocks in January so I’m out of powder. Got myself a beautiful, backtested-proven filter from Gurufocus. Hopefully.

500k invested in 2006 would be 9.1 today.

[refshateRaps]

Bear market? Naw. General markets short term bottom within a major bull market was back in October and January. This pullback mixed with a fear event is to shake our the weak before a major break to the upside.

I now try to always buy far more tickers weighted to those showing strength into weakness (Tech atm) rather then falling knives even when they are just shaking out the masses. Never the less the poster above gets it, even the banks are bottoming way oversold on the event and will recover hard.

Even for those that try to blindly follow the news stories to base decisions, you are about to get a rate hike announcement in the US this week. Which I believe may be used as the gasoline coming out of the meeting in the weeks that follow. How to shake the masses before a major turn? Create extreme fear (manufacture a bank crises at the foot of rate hike slowing and pause) then create Extreme euphoria (save banks and pause rates, etc.). Whatever 'news' they use it's already set in stone. Oh the chit show in which we live.

Good luck to all players here.

What do I know? Follow you own reads.

[VanWest82]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-plans-lawsuit-against-coinbase-according-to-exchange-624f3a69

[refshateRaps]

Friday Scoreboard

$BTCUSD start of thread: 16,767.64

$BTCUSD current: 27,386.19

+ 83%

Early stages too. What do I know?

[greekman]

bitcoin will survive recession talk only if the USD goes down in value. stranger things have happened.

[refshateRaps]

bitcoin will survive recession talk only if the USD goes down in value. stranger things have happened.

Why is that strange? USD/CAD is butt-ended right now against major resistance 1.38 (zone of 1.37-1.39), USD needs a serious life-line short term to stay up or get above.

Given almost everything market related seems to be short term bottoming, it should be epic when they let it go. Wouldn't shock me if they finished up with the volatile margin call swinging to end the week post FOMC. Hoping some of the fun starts this week!

What do I know? Follow you own reads

[canz55]

"Come with me if you want to live" (I shouldn't be re-posting memes on here I know, but I couldn't help myself this time)

[BlackThought]

bitcoin will survive recession talk only if the USD goes down in value. stranger things have happened.

bro