Tank World Order (The Remix Vol. IV)

[Ell Curry]

I don't think getting 10th next season is a wild prediction if they stay healthy and add more talent through the draft.

But I'm looking at next year as another development season anyway.

25/26 is the year where my expectations will change. If the team is still 9-10 spot then there's issues.

I think it's a 35 win team if everyone is healthy. Less holes than most bad teams, but don't really see the upside for getting to .500. We've sort of become the Utah Jazz with less future picks but Barnes having more upside than Markkanen.

[Scase]

Fair enough but so does continuity.

True, but continuity is much more important with a high ceiling with plenty of room for growth. OKC can easily make that argument the last couple of years, their most tenured player core player is 25 and in his 6th season, and is second in MVP voting.

Ours is going to be 29 at the start of the next season going into his 10th season, and is a mid tier starter. RJ/IQ will be going into seasons 4 and 5 respectively. I'm fine with continuity and growth, but for players with a lot more room for it. If the BBQ core was a bunch of like 22 year old players in their 2nd or 3rd years, sure, let em do it, but this ain't it.

I'm not going to debate whether or not Poeltl is a part of our core moving forward. Personally I don't view him as such, but you can make an argument for it given what we gave up for him and his current contract. IQ and RJ are 24 and 23 respectively, Scottie is 22, Gradey is 20. That is who I view as our core moving forward, and they have less than a season playing with each other. They can all take significant jumps next season, Gradey almost definitely will, I expect Scottie will as well, I'm hopeful for IQ and to a lesser extent RJ.

RJ and IQ will be 24/25 before the next draft. And even then the age is not as much of an issue to me, as is the tenure of the player(s). I absolutely think they have room to grow, but by the very nature of them being in the league as long as they have, that room is lower than if they were going into years 2 and 3. To me, this team hinges on Scottie and Gradey. And I just don't see those 2 as being enough for this team to make some significant strides.

As for Jak, I really only brought him up as other posters were specifying BBQ+P. I wouldn't consider him core either, but as you said, what we gave up for him, we might as well.

I'd happily be wrong overall, but I don't see enough in this core to be blown away over the next couple of years, my hope is that Scottie and Gradey take some huge steps with more playing time together. They still have loads of untapped potential, IQ/RJ are likely just slightly improved versions of what they already are.

[mihaic]

It just dawned to me that pick #6 will come to the six. We're on track!

[2019nbachamps]

I don't think getting 10th next season is a wild prediction if they stay healthy and add more talent through the draft.

But I'm looking at next year as another development season anyway.

25/26 is the year where my expectations will change. If the team is still 9-10 spot then there's issues.

I think it's a 35 win team if everyone is healthy. Less holes than most bad teams, but don't really see the upside for getting to .500. We've sort of become the Utah Jazz with less future picks but Barnes having more upside than Markkanen.

I agree with both of you. I doubt our draft picks make much of an impact next season just because it’s rare for any draft pick to move the needle as rookies. Just look at Wemby on the Spurs. I’m ok with next year being a transition year, and even better if we are able to keep our pick in June since we can explore tanking next year to also try and retain our pick.

[YogurtProducer]

I don't think getting 10th next season is a wild prediction if they stay healthy and add more talent through the draft.

But I'm looking at next year as another development season anyway.

25/26 is the year where my expectations will change. If the team is still 9-10 spot then there's issues.

I think it's a 35 win team if everyone is healthy. Less holes than most bad teams, but don't really see the upside for getting to .500. We've sort of become the Utah Jazz with less future picks but Barnes having more upside than Markkanen.

I agree with both of you. I doubt our draft picks make much of an impact next season just because it’s rare for any draft pick to move the needle as rookies. Just look at Wemby on the Spurs. I’m ok with next year being a transition year, and even better if we are able to keep our pick in June since we can explore tanking next year to also try and retain our pick.

It is uncommon for rookies to move the needle as rookies when they are the main guy.

A rookie can a lot easier come in and fill in off the bench or as a complementary starter.

[isyed]

Best case scenario
1st/15th/31st pick

Second best case scenario
2nd/16th/32nd

Worse case scenario

7th/20th/33rd

Sent from my SM-F946W using RealGM mobile app

[canada_dry]

I don't see too much of a difference between 12th(late lottery) and 15th.

The same caliber of player is most likely to be there.

Sent from my SM-G960W using RealGM mobile app

[OakleyDokely]

Best case scenario
1st/15th/31st pick

Second best case scenario
2nd/16th/32nd

Worse case scenario

7th/20th/33rd

Sent from my SM-F946W using RealGM mobile app

You describe the most realistic scenario's, but the best case scenario is actually 1/4/31. Raptors win lottery, Pacers pick goes to #4 and the Pistons end up dead last.

Worse case is the Raps give up their pick to SA, Pacers pick moves into the top 3 and Detroit finishes ahead of WAS, giving the Raps only pick 32 of all those potential picks.

[Walid]

I’d much rather we give up the pick this year than have it hanging over our head next year.

[Raps in 4]

Grizz should be able to win the next two. Warriors are washed and then they play the Spurs.

[Raps in 4]

I’d much rather we give up the pick this year than have it hanging over our head next year.

Unless you think we're going to be a bottom-6 team again next year, I'd rather keep the pick and then give up next year's pick, which I expect to be in the mid teens. A top pick, even in a perceived "weak" draft (there is no way to reliably predict the strength of a draft), is an extremely valuable asset for a rebuilding team. Loading up on our prospects sooner rather than later is also advantageous since it ensures better alignment of player timelines.

Unfortunately, whether or not we keep the pick this year is completely outside of our control (thanks to Masai's shortsightedness)

[dohboy_24]

where is the tanking don't work crowd these days? Just look at that list of players compiled by And1Skip, which we tanked for.

There's a lot of whiffs in that list.

Also... what did we win with those players? Not much...

The HRs are much better than the KOs...

Camby + VC + T-Mac + CB4 + JV + Scottie vs. Bargs + TRoss + CV + Hoffa

As far as what we did with them when we had them...

KOs:
Hoffa (2 seasons) - traded to Utah for Kris Humphries
CV (1 season) - traded for TJ Ford (needed a PG)
Bargs (7 seasons) - held onto him too long, but he was the #1 pick and they had a lot invested in him
TRoss (4.5 seasons) - traded for Serge Ibaka - a member of our 2019 championship lineup.

HRs:
Camby (2 seasons) - traded for Charles Oakley who become a solid contributor during our VC era playoff runs
T-Mac (3 seasons) - lost to FA (Orlando)
VC (6.5 seasons) - The VC deal to New Jersey was trash, but we weren't going to get more out of him than we already had
CB4 (7 seasons) - lost to FA (Miami)
JV (7 seasons) - traded for Marc Gasol - a member of our 2019 championship lineup

Other than holding onto Bargs for too long and not getting enough value in return for VC, all but Hoffa and CV were valuable contributors when they were part of the rotation and we were able to leverage all of these assets quite well when we decided to move on from them...

[Coco Costanza]

Grizz should be able to win the next two. Warriors are washed.

About that...

[TorontoBarneys]

Is there any prospect or two in this draft that's looking like he might have Scottie potential?

[OakleyDokely]

Is there any prospect or two in this draft that's looking like he might have Scottie potential?

I wouldn't trade Scottie for the #1 pick in this draft. I probably wouldn't trade him for two top 5 picks in this draft. One or two guys might emerge, but good luck predicting who those guys will be.

[MikeM]

You're telling me Bane, JJJ and GG can't win a single game. Come on man that's crazy work.

[MiamiSPX]

With the exception of SA (who has a strong chance of two top 10 picks), no other bottom 7 team is trying to win. In fact, I would argue that each is intentionally putting themselves in position to lose every night. It's crazy how badly each team is losing every night lol.

This race to the bottom is hilarious. At some point Memphis has to win a game, right?

[DelAbbot]

Cheering for the tank is so hard this year

[DelAbbot]

With the exception of SA (who has a strong chance of two top 10 picks), no other bottom 7 team is trying to win. In fact, I would argue that each is intentionally putting themselves in position to lose every night. It's crazy how badly each team is losing every night lol.

This race to the bottom is hilarious. At some point Memphis has to win a game, right?

This should be enough evidence that this draft is not weak, at least at the top. These FO must know there is talent worth losing every game for in this draft.

But "anytime you can get a starting center for a FRP you do it" -Masai

[OakleyDokely]

These games involving the bottom 7 teams are completely unwatchable.

I would make the lottery odds completely flat for all lottery teams. The bottom 14 teams all get a 7% chance at the #1 pick. I wouldn't even be against giving smaller odds to the lower seeded playoff teams. You shouldn't be rewarded for dressing gleague rosters for the last 1/4 of the season.