Tank World Order (The Remix Vol. IV)

[LoveMyRaps]

Pacers need to lose their remaining two games (Cavs and Hawks) and 76ers need to win their remaining two games (Magic and Nets) in order for Pacers to fall into the play-ins

[Chandan]

Pacers need to lose their remaining two games (Cavs and Hawks) and 76ers need to win their remaining two games (Magic and Nets) in order for Pacers to fall into the play-ins

So there is still a chance

[Scase]

There is no way Memphis wins one of their next three.

Raptors = 25 wins and 54 losses with 3 road games remaining against Brooklyn and Miami (x2)
Grizzlies = 27 wins and 52 losses with 1 road game against Cleveland and 2 home games against LA Lakers and Denver.

If we win all 3 games and they lose all 3 of theirs, we end up with 1 more win than them.
If we win all 3 games and they win 1 of theirs, we both end up with a record of 28 wins and 54 losses.
If we win all 3 games and they win 2 of theirs, they end up with 1 more win than us.
If we win all 3 games and they do as well, they end up with 2 more wins than us.
If we win 2 games and they lose all 3 of theirs, we both end up with a record of 27 wins and 55 losses.
If we win 2 games and they win 1 of theirs, they end up with 1 more win than us.
If we win 2 games and they win 2 of theirs, they end up with 2 more wins than us.
If we win 2 games and they win all 3 of theirs, they end up with 3 more wins than us.
If we win 1 game and they lose all 3 of theirs, they end up with 1 more win than us.
If we win 1 game and they win 1 of theirs, they end up with 2 more wins than us.
If we win 1 game and they win 2 of theirs, they end up with 3 more wins than us.
If we win 1 game and they win all 3 of theirs, they end up with 4 more wins than us.

If we win all 3 games and they lose all 3, we end up with a better record and land in the #7 spot.
If we win all 3 games and they win 1 of theirs, we end up with the same record (28 wins and 54 losses).
If we win 2 games and they lose all 3 of theirs, we end up with the same record (27 wins and 55 losses).
Other than those 3 scenarios, they'll end up with more wins than us and the 7th worst record this season.

We really need to make sure we're tanking properly here.

If we're hopeful for history to repeat itself, we'd actually have better luck getting the #1 pick with a record in the range of the 7th to 9th worst as they've received the top selection twice as often as the team finishing with the 6th worst record.

My friend, that is not how statistics work.

6th objectively and statistically speaking has a better chance than 7th, 8th, or 9th. What you are looking at as confirmation that those ranges have a "better chance" is, because you are comparing 3 combined slots vs 1.

Yes, when you combine the outcome of the 7/8/9th place finishes vs JUST the 6th, you're going to see it happen more often, collectively they have an 18% chance at 1st OA vs 9%. Hence them collectively getting the 1st OA twice as much. This is literally how stats work.

In your own chart 6th has won it 3 times, 7th has won it 3 times, 8th 1 time, and 9th 2 times. Please, learn how stats work lol.

[dohboy_24]

My friend, that is not how statistics work.

6th objectively and statistically speaking has a better chance than 7th, 8th, or 9th. What you are looking at as confirmation that those ranges have a "better chance" is, because you are comparing 3 combined slots vs 1.

Yes, when you combine the outcome of the 7/8/9th place finishes vs JUST the 6th, you're going to see it happen more often, collectively they have an 18% chance at 1st OA vs 9%. Hence them collectively getting the 1st OA twice as much. This is literally how stats work.

In your own chart 6th has won it 3 times, 7th has won it 3 times, 8th 1 time, and 9th 2 times. Please, learn how stats work lol.

Yes, I know how statistics work. I was going to just compare the number of times the #7 worst record had won with the number of times the #6 worst record had won, but I didn't think my attempt at an in jest response would be obvious enough so I made sure it was by stacking the outcomes as I did.

Either way, prior outcomes do not affect the occurrence of future outcomes, especially when the pick odds have changed within the sample period and the comparison wouldn't be on an apples-to-apples basis even if the impact of the odds changes were non-significant...

[Coco Costanza]

I keep running tankathon, and the Grizzlies keep sneaking ahead of us.

This is still the case, even on this site's lotto simulator. I feel like Grizzlies are going to jump us in the lottery.

[bballsparkin]

^^the only one I did today had Memphis winning and the Raptors at 3rd. I could live with that.

[2019nbachamps]

We did it, congrats guys

[PhilBlackson]

We did it, congrats guys

Not until those ping pong balls are drawn is it official.

[PhilBlackson]

We did it, congrats guys

It’s not official until those ping pong balls are drawn.

[metafisical]

We have a lot to discuss over the off-season, so hopefully the tWo thread doesn't die down after the draft lottery.

If everyone is healthy and assuming IQ is re-signed and GTj not, I can see us being a play-in, at best. Mediocrity again.

I remember we (tWo) were ripped apart early this season for lacking faith and not giving the team a chance LMAO. It looks like we had the foresight and everyone else was wrong...again. When you lack talent, there's only one direction you will head to in the standings and that's down. Hopefully Team Mediocre peeps will be a bit more realistic and open-minded about the Raptors chances next season.

[DelAbbot]

We have a lot to discuss over the off-season, so hopefully the tWo thread doesn't die down after the draft lottery.

If everyone is healthy and assuming IQ is re-signed and GTj not, I can see us being a play-in, at best. Mediocrity again.

I remember we (tWo) were ripped apart early this season for lacking faith and not giving the team a chance LMAO. It looks like we had the foresight and everyone else was wrong...again. When you lack talent, there's only one direction you will head to in the standings and that's down. Hopefully Team Mediocre peeps will be a bit more realistic and open-minded about the Raptors chances next season.

Foresight was 720 calling out our fake wins against Covid-decimated teams with jpeg paint drawings. That was the start of this multi-year downfall.

For TwO, this season was the trailer. Next year is the movie.

[dohboy_24]

We have a lot to discuss over the off-season, so hopefully the tWo thread doesn't die down after the draft lottery.

If everyone is healthy and assuming IQ is re-signed and GTj not, I can see us being a play-in, at best. Mediocrity again.

I remember we (tWo) were ripped apart early this season for lacking faith and not giving the team a chance LMAO. It looks like we had the foresight and everyone else was wrong...again. When you lack talent, there's only one direction you will head to in the standings and that's down. Hopefully Team Mediocre peeps will be a bit more realistic and open-minded about the Raptors chances next season.

To make the play-in tournament, we will probably need to win somewhere between 35 to 40 games next season.

Depth chart for next season:
G - IQ, Dick, Brown
F - Scottie, RJ, Ochai, McDaniels
C - Jakob, KO, Boucher

That's 10 players.

If we keep all of our rookies in this draft and they each play somewhere between 15 to 25 minutes per game, they could fill in the rest of the active roster and eat up around 60 of the 240 playable minutes per game. That's 25% of the playing time going to rookies.

Even if that's closer to 15% or 20% of the available minutes to be played, along with the playing time going to Dick, Ochai and McDaniels and the continued development and growth of IQ, RJ, and Scottie, winning more than 45% of our games and making the play-in tournament is definitely the best-case scenario.

If not, we'll be among the bottom 10 teams in the league and in the draft lottery again next year.

Given the protections on our pick, we'd definitely have an incentive to tank again during the last 20 games of the season if that's the direction we're headed, so it will be interesting to see what happens with the draft lottery this year as we could potentially keep our pick in both this draft and the 2025 draft if things work out for us.

[Michael Jordan]

Finishing 6th only gives you a 46% chance of staying in the top 6. Lets hope the basketball Gods pity us.

[GreatWhiteStiff]

I keep running tankathon, and the Grizzlies keep sneaking ahead of us.

This is still the case, even on this site's lotto simulator. I feel like Grizzlies are going to jump us in the lottery.

Put the pipe down...errr talkathon.com away, my friend. No more for you.

[dohboy_24]

Finishing 6th only gives you a 46% chance of staying in the top 6. Lets hope the basketball Gods pity us.

Would you rather these odds instead?

Spurs (#5) = 44% chance of staying in the top 5. 56% chance of dropping to #6 or lower (max: #9)

Hornets (#4) = 50% chance of staying in the top 4. 50% chance of dropping to #5 or lower (max: #8)

Blazers (#3) = 39% chance of staying in the top 3. 61% chance of dropping to #4 or lower (max: #7)

Wizards (#2) = 27% chance of staying in the top 2. 73% chance of dropping to #3 or lower (max: #6)

Pistons (#1) = 14% chance of staying in the top spot. 86% chance of dropping to #2 or lower (max: #5)

[LoveMyRaps]

I ran the simulator 10 times.

Retained the pick 4 out of 10 times (i.e., finished with a top 6 pick).

[ItsDanger]

I keep running tankathon, and the Grizzlies keep sneaking ahead of us.

This is still the case, even on this site's lotto simulator. I feel like Grizzlies are going to jump us in the lottery.

Some random number generators aren't as random as you'd think.

[Duffman100]

I did 5 sims,

We got 3 twice, 2 once, and then 7 and 8

[Scase]

We have a lot to discuss over the off-season, so hopefully the tWo thread doesn't die down after the draft lottery.

If everyone is healthy and assuming IQ is re-signed and GTj not, I can see us being a play-in, at best. Mediocrity again.

I remember we (tWo) were ripped apart early this season for lacking faith and not giving the team a chance LMAO. It looks like we had the foresight and everyone else was wrong...again. When you lack talent, there's only one direction you will head to in the standings and that's down. Hopefully Team Mediocre peeps will be a bit more realistic and open-minded about the Raptors chances next season.

To make the play-in tournament, we will probably need to win somewhere between 35 to 40 games next season.

Depth chart for next season:
G - IQ, Dick, Brown
F - Scottie, RJ, Ochai, McDaniels
C - Jakob, KO, Boucher

That's 10 players.

If we keep all of our rookies in this draft and they each play somewhere between 15 to 25 minutes per game, they could fill in the rest of the active roster and eat up around 60 of the 240 playable minutes per game. That's 25% of the playing time going to rookies.

Even if that's closer to 15% or 20% of the available minutes to be played, along with the playing time going to Dick, Ochai and McDaniels and the continued development and growth of IQ, RJ, and Scottie, winning more than 45% of our games and making the play-in tournament is definitely the best-case scenario.

If not, we'll be among the bottom 10 teams in the league and in the draft lottery again next year.

Given the protections on our pick, we'd definitely have an incentive to tank again during the last 20 games of the season if that's the direction we're headed, so it will be interesting to see what happens with the draft lottery this year as we could potentially keep our pick in both this draft and the 2025 draft if things work out for us.

That is one anemic looking depth chart, sweet christ.

Brown is terrible, and with any luck will not be here next year. Ochai is more and more looking like a waste of NBA minutes, McD is absolutely a waste of NBA minutes, and Boucher couldn't sniff the court last year. That gives us 6 players.

At best we fight for the play in, but if we suffer even a reasonable level of injuries, we are cooked. This is why I really want us to continue to burn it down and tank next year, this team has a severe lack of talent, and we aren't gonna fix that in a singular year, even worse if we lose our pick.

[bballsparkin]

I did 5 sims,

We got 3 twice, 2 once, and then 7 and 8

Woah slow down there Duff, you may be using up too much luck.