Official Ochai Agbaji Thread - Welcome to Toronto, Ochai!

[Thaddy]

I can't wait to hear about a player drafted 41st and how we should have kept the pick at 28, drafted this player. A player nobody here had heard of and only mentioned 2 months into the season as the obvious miss by the FO.

If Dunn, Missi, or another defensive prospect drops to the late first round. It would rightfully be a mark against the front office. I'd have more faith in a young prospect with limited experience improving than a fully tenured college player. Our front office values veteran leadership way too much compared to talent, youth, and potential.

It would already be a miss despite the fact that we don't know how anyone is going to perform?

Yes because potential has value. A player that's already been on 3 teams since he's been drafted has marks against his value. Hypothetically, if we drafted Dunn and he showed out for half a season as a useful rotation piece, let's say 7-9th man in a rotation. His value would exceed that of Ochai.

I can't wait to hear about a player drafted 41st and how we should have kept the pick at 28, drafted this player. A player nobody here had heard of and only mentioned 2 months into the season as the obvious miss by the FO.

If Dunn, Missi, or another defensive prospect drops to the late first round. It would rightfully be a mark against the front office. I'd have more faith in a young prospect with limited experience improving than a fully tenured college player. Our front office values veteran leadership way too much compared to talent, youth, and potential.

Lmao man people have been saying this **** for a decade dating back to when we took Delon, Norm, and Siakam. When will we learn that the age of the prospect is not the most important thing?

Age doesn't matter but the fact Ainge traded Ochai for pick flexibility means he doesn't think he'll pan out. Ainge isn't a bad talent evaluator and he wouldn't want Ochai breaking out on our team. He made a very calculated trade fully knowing that Ochai would not pan out. In terms of the 28th pick out performing Ochai? I would say it's a very high liklihood of happening especially if you go for a 'safe' or high floor pick.

[Scase]

A 23 year old whose only played 2 full seasons has things he needs to improve?

THIS IS SHOCKING NEWS.

Now while this is like 80% valid, I think a 4 year college player in his 2nd pro year, should be a much more polished player. This isn't a one and done, or a HS > pro player. Dude had 4 years in a highly organized league, playing for one of the best teams in the country. Same with Scottie winning ROTY, or this team winning the chip, expectations get raised.

Maybe I have lower expectations, but players taken mid 1st and beyond, aren't sure things. He was also taken higher than he probably should've been. If you can get a role player with a later pick, you've won. I think Ochai's shown enough as a POA defender and from corner 3 range to suggest he could develop into a top 9/10 rotation player. He isn't there yet, but I think it's too early to say either way.

I was mostly responding to the post above me suggesting that people are remaining silent on Ochai when this very thread is dedicated to him, with many people outlining his many flaws.

All very valid points, but there just seems to be fundamental skills lacking for a guy with as much college experience as he has. Considering he only has a shot from a single spot on the entire court (right side corner 3), I would expect to see him try to get to that spot, over jacking up above the break 3's at a laughably bad clip.

His defence is good, not great, which means you need to have something else, he's 24 in less than a month. I dont think his age can be used as a defence for his lack of skills. Players with less experience and younger are showing more.

It's not a huge issue right now IMO, since our roster is basically g league level. But if he stays on the team into next season, he needs to be way down the depth chart, he's just a massive negative on the court virtually all the time. Gradey was drafted a single spot ahead of him, is 4 years younger, and is built like a 14 year old boy, there is not enough reason he can't be performing at least at a similar level. He is flat out not a rotation level player right now on a healthy team, how much more time should he be afforded to get there? 24 years old is already a little too far IMO.

[Duffman100]

If Dunn, Missi, or another defensive prospect drops to the late first round. It would rightfully be a mark against the front office. I'd have more faith in a young prospect with limited experience improving than a fully tenured college player. Our front office values veteran leadership way too much compared to talent, youth, and potential.

It would already be a miss despite the fact that we don't know how anyone is going to perform?

Yes because potential has value. A player that's already been on 3 teams since he's been drafted has marks against his value. Hypothetically, if we drafted Dunn and he showed out for half a season as a useful rotation piece, let's say 7-9th man in a rotation. His value would exceed that of Ochai.

Stop with the "3 team" argument. He didn't play for Cleveland, he was immediately dealt for Mitchell. He was part of that pacakge. He's been on ONE other team in reality.

Yes, hypothetically if we draft someone who plays better than Ochai, it's a miss. Obviously. That's the hypothetical we don't know right now.

Obviously when you trade someone for a pick, there is the hypothetical you draft someone better with that pick... That's why you don't judge trades until things actually play out.

[Scase]

It would already be a miss despite the fact that we don't know how anyone is going to perform?

Yes because potential has value. A player that's already been on 3 teams since he's been drafted has marks against his value. Hypothetically, if we drafted Dunn and he showed out for half a season as a useful rotation piece, let's say 7-9th man in a rotation. His value would exceed that of Ochai.

Stop with the "3 team" argument. He didn't play for Cleveland, he was immediately dealt for Mitchell. He was part of that pacakge. He's been on ONE other team in reality.

Yes, hypothetically if we draft someone who plays better than Ochai, it's a miss. Obviously. That's the hypothetical we don't know right now.

Obviously when you trade someone for a pick, there is the hypothetical you draft someone better with that pick... That's why you don't judge trades until things actually play out.

While I think arguing about hypothetical specific players being drafted is a silly argument, I think generally speaking, having a player on a cheaper contract, under longer control, drafted to fit exactly what you are looking for, and the ability to park them in the g league for a while, is a way more attractive proposition than what Ochai is.

Both players could absolutely crash and burn, but I feel like the opportunity for the drafted player is probably higher.

[Duffman100]

Yes because potential has value. A player that's already been on 3 teams since he's been drafted has marks against his value. Hypothetically, if we drafted Dunn and he showed out for half a season as a useful rotation piece, let's say 7-9th man in a rotation. His value would exceed that of Ochai.

Stop with the "3 team" argument. He didn't play for Cleveland, he was immediately dealt for Mitchell. He was part of that pacakge. He's been on ONE other team in reality.

Yes, hypothetically if we draft someone who plays better than Ochai, it's a miss. Obviously. That's the hypothetical we don't know right now.

Obviously when you trade someone for a pick, there is the hypothetical you draft someone better with that pick... That's why you don't judge trades until things actually play out.

While I think arguing about hypothetical specific players being drafted is a silly argument, I think generally speaking, having a player on a cheaper contract, under longer control, drafted to fit exactly what you are looking for, and the ability to park them in the g league for a while, is a way more attractive proposition than what Ochai is.

Both players could absolutely crash and burn, but I feel like the opportunity for the drafted player is probably higher.

Which we have gone over is the trade off in the trade that happened. There are pros and cons both ways.

[OakleyDokely]

Now while this is like 80% valid, I think a 4 year college player in his 2nd pro year, should be a much more polished player. This isn't a one and done, or a HS > pro player. Dude had 4 years in a highly organized league, playing for one of the best teams in the country. Same with Scottie winning ROTY, or this team winning the chip, expectations get raised.

Maybe I have lower expectations, but players taken mid 1st and beyond, aren't sure things. He was also taken higher than he probably should've been. If you can get a role player with a later pick, you've won. I think Ochai's shown enough as a POA defender and from corner 3 range to suggest he could develop into a top 9/10 rotation player. He isn't there yet, but I think it's too early to say either way.

I was mostly responding to the post above me suggesting that people are remaining silent on Ochai when this very thread is dedicated to him, with many people outlining his many flaws.

All very valid points, but there just seems to be fundamental skills lacking for a guy with as much college experience as he has. Considering he only has a shot from a single spot on the entire court (right side corner 3), I would expect to see him try to get to that spot, over jacking up above the break 3's at a laughably bad clip.

His defence is good, not great, which means you need to have something else, he's 24 in less than a month. I dont think his age can be used as a defence for his lack of skills. Players with less experience and younger are showing more.

It's not a huge issue right now IMO, since our roster is basically g league level. But if he stays on the team into next season, he needs to be way down the depth chart, he's just a massive negative on the court virtually all the time. Gradey was drafted a single spot ahead of him, is 4 years younger, and is built like a 14 year old boy, there is not enough reason he can't be performing at least at a similar level. He is flat out not a rotation level player right now on a healthy team, how much more time should he be afforded to get there? 24 years old is already a little too far IMO.

I think it's encouraging that he's already a solid defender in his 2nd season. Sometimes it takes players a little while to adopt at that end, regardless of age. I like his physical profile a lot. He's built like a tank and he's pretty agile, so I still think there's room for him to grow into an elite guard defender. The shot comes and goes, but the form looks fine. If he can become that prototypical 3+D guy off the bench, he could be useful either as a rotation player or a trade piece in a larger deal.

Currently his usage was too high, which isn't surprising with all the guys out. I see him as a 15-20 minute guy who will come in off the bench, guard the opposing teams offensive guard for a bit, knockdown a 3 or two and then get back to the bench.

[YogurtProducer]

If Dunn, Missi, or another defensive prospect drops to the late first round. It would rightfully be a mark against the front office. I'd have more faith in a young prospect with limited experience improving than a fully tenured college player. Our front office values veteran leadership way too much compared to talent, youth, and potential.

It would already be a miss despite the fact that we don't know how anyone is going to perform?

Yes because potential has value. A player that's already been on 3 teams since he's been drafted has marks against his value. Hypothetically, if we drafted Dunn and he showed out for half a season as a useful rotation piece, let's say 7-9th man in a rotation. His value would exceed that of Ochai.

If Dunn, Missi, or another defensive prospect drops to the late first round. It would rightfully be a mark against the front office. I'd have more faith in a young prospect with limited experience improving than a fully tenured college player. Our front office values veteran leadership way too much compared to talent, youth, and potential.

Lmao man people have been saying this **** for a decade dating back to when we took Delon, Norm, and Siakam. When will we learn that the age of the prospect is not the most important thing?

Age doesn't matter but the fact Ainge traded Ochai for pick flexibility means he doesn't think he'll pan out. Ainge isn't a bad talent evaluator and he wouldn't want Ochai breaking out on our team. He made a very calculated trade fully knowing that Ochai would not pan out. In terms of the 28th pick out performing Ochai? I would say it's a very high liklihood of happening especially if you go for a 'safe' or high floor pick.

Ainge also had incentive to get bad immediately so he keeps his top 10 pick (which is why Fontecchio, Olynyk, and Ochai were traded for literally no playable players).

Ainge also could have wanted the salary flexibility this year (and not paying Ochai in 2026), and grab a 4-year contract instead who would be cheaper.3

Your response to Duffman also seems to ignore he also could absolutely suck (like Flynn) and is out of the league and loses all value.

[Duffman100]

Maybe I have lower expectations, but players taken mid 1st and beyond, aren't sure things. He was also taken higher than he probably should've been. If you can get a role player with a later pick, you've won. I think Ochai's shown enough as a POA defender and from corner 3 range to suggest he could develop into a top 9/10 rotation player. He isn't there yet, but I think it's too early to say either way.

I was mostly responding to the post above me suggesting that people are remaining silent on Ochai when this very thread is dedicated to him, with many people outlining his many flaws.

All very valid points, but there just seems to be fundamental skills lacking for a guy with as much college experience as he has. Considering he only has a shot from a single spot on the entire court (right side corner 3), I would expect to see him try to get to that spot, over jacking up above the break 3's at a laughably bad clip.

His defence is good, not great, which means you need to have something else, he's 24 in less than a month. I dont think his age can be used as a defence for his lack of skills. Players with less experience and younger are showing more.

It's not a huge issue right now IMO, since our roster is basically g league level. But if he stays on the team into next season, he needs to be way down the depth chart, he's just a massive negative on the court virtually all the time. Gradey was drafted a single spot ahead of him, is 4 years younger, and is built like a 14 year old boy, there is not enough reason he can't be performing at least at a similar level. He is flat out not a rotation level player right now on a healthy team, how much more time should he be afforded to get there? 24 years old is already a little too far IMO.

I think it's encouraging that he's already a solid defender in his 2nd season. Sometimes it takes players a little while to adopt at that end, regardless of age. I like his physical profile a lot. He's built like a tank and he's pretty agile, so I still think there's room for him to grow into an elite guard defender. The shot comes and goes, but the form looks fine. If he can become that prototypical 3+D guy off the bench, he could be useful either as a rotation player or a trade piece in a larger deal.

Currently his usage was too high, which isn't surprising with all the guys out. I see him as a 15-20 minute guy who will come in off the bench, guard the opposing teams offensive guard for a bit, knockdown a 3 or two and then get back to the bench.

Norm put up 5 points on 40/28/82 in his second year at 24 years old too. Norm showed more offensive talent obviously but still.

[Duffman100]

One thing that is interesting is FT% and 3p%.

College:
69 / 31
67 / 34
69 / 38
74 / 41

NBA
81 /35
71 (75 with Utah) / 31 (33 with Utah)

Slowly trending up throughout college and his first year. This year has just been off.

Should be interesting to see next year and see what direction it goes in.

[LoveMyRaps]

One thing that is interesting is FT% and 3p%.

College:
69 / 31
67 / 34
69 / 38
74 / 41

NBA
81 /35
71 (75 with Utah) / 31 (33 with Utah)

Slowly trending up throughout college and his first year. This year has just been off.

Should be interesting to see next year and see what direction it goes in.

Sophomore slump - you would think people would've learned by now, especially after seeing Scottie's performance last season, that it's wrong to write players off after their second season.

Wouldn't expect any different from the same suspects though.

[bluerap23]

All very valid points, but there just seems to be fundamental skills lacking for a guy with as much college experience as he has. Considering he only has a shot from a single spot on the entire court (right side corner 3), I would expect to see him try to get to that spot, over jacking up above the break 3's at a laughably bad clip.

His defence is good, not great, which means you need to have something else, he's 24 in less than a month. I dont think his age can be used as a defence for his lack of skills. Players with less experience and younger are showing more.

It's not a huge issue right now IMO, since our roster is basically g league level. But if he stays on the team into next season, he needs to be way down the depth chart, he's just a massive negative on the court virtually all the time. Gradey was drafted a single spot ahead of him, is 4 years younger, and is built like a 14 year old boy, there is not enough reason he can't be performing at least at a similar level. He is flat out not a rotation level player right now on a healthy team, how much more time should he be afforded to get there? 24 years old is already a little too far IMO.

I think it's encouraging that he's already a solid defender in his 2nd season. Sometimes it takes players a little while to adopt at that end, regardless of age. I like his physical profile a lot. He's built like a tank and he's pretty agile, so I still think there's room for him to grow into an elite guard defender. The shot comes and goes, but the form looks fine. If he can become that prototypical 3+D guy off the bench, he could be useful either as a rotation player or a trade piece in a larger deal.

Currently his usage was too high, which isn't surprising with all the guys out. I see him as a 15-20 minute guy who will come in off the bench, guard the opposing teams offensive guard for a bit, knockdown a 3 or two and then get back to the bench.

Norm put up 5 points on 40/28/82 in his second year at 24 years old too. Norm showed more offensive talent obviously but still.

Unlikely he develops an offensive game like Norm, but Ochai is a better defender than Norm. All he needs to do is become a good 3pt shooter. Same guys freaking out about him were freaking about Dick.

[Duffman100]

I think it's encouraging that he's already a solid defender in his 2nd season. Sometimes it takes players a little while to adopt at that end, regardless of age. I like his physical profile a lot. He's built like a tank and he's pretty agile, so I still think there's room for him to grow into an elite guard defender. The shot comes and goes, but the form looks fine. If he can become that prototypical 3+D guy off the bench, he could be useful either as a rotation player or a trade piece in a larger deal.

Currently his usage was too high, which isn't surprising with all the guys out. I see him as a 15-20 minute guy who will come in off the bench, guard the opposing teams offensive guard for a bit, knockdown a 3 or two and then get back to the bench.

Norm put up 5 points on 40/28/82 in his second year at 24 years old too. Norm showed more offensive talent obviously but still.

Unlikely he develops an offensive game like Norm, but Ochai is a better defender than Norm. All he needs to do is become a good 3pt shooter. Same guys freaking out about him were freaking about Dick.

Hell, they may be right. Dick is struggling again.

But just some patience and time....

[Scase]

One thing that is interesting is FT% and 3p%.

College:
69 / 31
67 / 34
69 / 38
74 / 41

NBA
81 /35
71 (75 with Utah) / 31 (33 with Utah)

Slowly trending up throughout college and his first year. This year has just been off.

Should be interesting to see next year and see what direction it goes in.

Sophomore slump - you would think people would've learned by now, especially after seeing Scottie's performance last season, that it's wrong to write players off after their second season.

Wouldn't expect any different from the same suspects though.

What sophomore slump? He's shooting a little worse from the only place on the court he is a positive shooter, every other spot he's as bad as he was the year prior. His problem isn't some big second year decline, it's that he had a decline in the only place he isn't terrible. He shot 50% from the right corner last year, and 44% this year, everything else remains largely unchanged.

[YogurtProducer]

All very valid points, but there just seems to be fundamental skills lacking for a guy with as much college experience as he has. Considering he only has a shot from a single spot on the entire court (right side corner 3), I would expect to see him try to get to that spot, over jacking up above the break 3's at a laughably bad clip.

His defence is good, not great, which means you need to have something else, he's 24 in less than a month. I dont think his age can be used as a defence for his lack of skills. Players with less experience and younger are showing more.

It's not a huge issue right now IMO, since our roster is basically g league level. But if he stays on the team into next season, he needs to be way down the depth chart, he's just a massive negative on the court virtually all the time. Gradey was drafted a single spot ahead of him, is 4 years younger, and is built like a 14 year old boy, there is not enough reason he can't be performing at least at a similar level. He is flat out not a rotation level player right now on a healthy team, how much more time should he be afforded to get there? 24 years old is already a little too far IMO.

I think it's encouraging that he's already a solid defender in his 2nd season. Sometimes it takes players a little while to adopt at that end, regardless of age. I like his physical profile a lot. He's built like a tank and he's pretty agile, so I still think there's room for him to grow into an elite guard defender. The shot comes and goes, but the form looks fine. If he can become that prototypical 3+D guy off the bench, he could be useful either as a rotation player or a trade piece in a larger deal.

Currently his usage was too high, which isn't surprising with all the guys out. I see him as a 15-20 minute guy who will come in off the bench, guard the opposing teams offensive guard for a bit, knockdown a 3 or two and then get back to the bench.

Norm put up 5 points on 40/28/82 in his second year at 24 years old too. Norm showed more offensive talent obviously but still.

And Norm was a guy who became literally an incredible shooter. Another guy who started his career elite from the corners and slowly built out his range..

First two years he took 45% of his 3's from the corner at a 39.8% clip. HE was not good from anywhere else really. He slowly got better from non-corner 3's and now he hits 37ish% from above the corners.

Norm showed a lot more slashing ability, less defense

[Duffman100]

I think it's encouraging that he's already a solid defender in his 2nd season. Sometimes it takes players a little while to adopt at that end, regardless of age. I like his physical profile a lot. He's built like a tank and he's pretty agile, so I still think there's room for him to grow into an elite guard defender. The shot comes and goes, but the form looks fine. If he can become that prototypical 3+D guy off the bench, he could be useful either as a rotation player or a trade piece in a larger deal.

Currently his usage was too high, which isn't surprising with all the guys out. I see him as a 15-20 minute guy who will come in off the bench, guard the opposing teams offensive guard for a bit, knockdown a 3 or two and then get back to the bench.

Norm put up 5 points on 40/28/82 in his second year at 24 years old too. Norm showed more offensive talent obviously but still.

And Norm was a guy who became literally an incredible shooter. Another guy who started his career elite from the corners and slowly built out his range..

First two years he took 45% of his 3's from the corner at a 39.8% clip. HE was not good from anywhere else really. He slowly got better from non-corner 3's and now he hits 37ish% from above the corners.

Norm showed a lot more slashing ability, less defense

Norms first step is and was elite.

Either way, writing off a 2nd year player because he was a senior is ridiculous. Always room for growth.

[ForeverTFC]

Obviously when you trade someone for a pick, there is the hypothetical you draft someone better with that pick... That's why you don't judge trades until things actually play out.

Is that the right way to think about it though? We know the expected value of a player picked in the last 5 spots of the first round. We know the value of Ochai today and have better bounds around his potential outcome. If we assume that every pick can potentially be a star, no one in the league should ever trade picks regardless of where they are. I think you evaluate the trade at the time. we KNOW where the pick will be which removes a lot of the upside from future picks. We know in theory the players available in that slot. Yeah, there is a chance you get a star, but if their model tells them Ochai's expected value is much higher, they should go for it.

Ainge isn't a bad talent evaluator and he wouldn't want Ochai breaking out on our team. He made a very calculated trade fully knowing that Ochai would not pan out. In terms of the 28th pick out performing Ochai? I would say it's a very high liklihood of happening especially if you go for a 'safe' or high floor pick.

1. Check Ainge's track record outside the top of the draft over the last decade or so. Ainge has not been very good at finding the middle talent.
2. We know the expected value of picks and Ochai is already a higher value than the expected value of a pick 25-30; here is the source, you can run your own math: https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
3. Ainge made Ochai untouchable just last year; either he evaluated wrong last year or he evaluated wrong this year, or he's like most others and believes in a span of outcomes

All very valid points, but there just seems to be fundamental skills lacking for a guy with as much college experience as he has. Considering he only has a shot from a single spot on the entire court (right side corner 3), I would expect to see him try to get to that spot, over jacking up above the break 3's at a laughably bad clip.

His defence is good, not great, which means you need to have something else, he's 24 in less than a month. I dont think his age can be used as a defence for his lack of skills. Players with less experience and younger are showing more.

It's not a huge issue right now IMO, since our roster is basically g league level. But if he stays on the team into next season, he needs to be way down the depth chart, he's just a massive negative on the court virtually all the time. Gradey was drafted a single spot ahead of him, is 4 years younger, and is built like a 14 year old boy, there is not enough reason he can't be performing at least at a similar level. He is flat out not a rotation level player right now on a healthy team, how much more time should he be afforded to get there? 24 years old is already a little too far IMO.

Again, only a year ago:

Read on Twitter

[bluerap23]

Decision making looking much better tonight

[LoveMyRaps]

Another strong, all-around game.

Ochai is starting to put it together.

It's easy to understand why the FO is so high on him.

[Thaddy]

Another strong, all-around game.

Ochai is starting to put it together.

It's easy to understand why the FO is so high on him.

Imagine if you could combine him and Gradey into a single player. That'd be the best off ball player in the NBA.

Both had good games today. The three isn't falling off the for Ochai but if he can shoot at elite levels from the corner it should eventually translate above the break.

In the off season I'd like for him to work on his handles and lose weight to become more of a 2 than a forward. The additional conditioning will help his range.

[Scase]

All very valid points, but there just seems to be fundamental skills lacking for a guy with as much college experience as he has. Considering he only has a shot from a single spot on the entire court (right side corner 3), I would expect to see him try to get to that spot, over jacking up above the break 3's at a laughably bad clip.

His defence is good, not great, which means you need to have something else, he's 24 in less than a month. I dont think his age can be used as a defence for his lack of skills. Players with less experience and younger are showing more.

It's not a huge issue right now IMO, since our roster is basically g league level. But if he stays on the team into next season, he needs to be way down the depth chart, he's just a massive negative on the court virtually all the time. Gradey was drafted a single spot ahead of him, is 4 years younger, and is built like a 14 year old boy, there is not enough reason he can't be performing at least at a similar level. He is flat out not a rotation level player right now on a healthy team, how much more time should he be afforded to get there? 24 years old is already a little too far IMO.

Again, only a year ago:

Read on Twitter

That really just kind of proves my point though. Either they believed him to be that skilled, and then got a rude wake up call realizing he ain't it. Otherwise, why would they trade him for scraps.

Or they were posturing for more value, because it was at the trade deadline, and Ainge is one of the best GMs in the league.

Unless you can think of some reason why an "untouchable" 14th OA player was traded for one of the absolute worst picks in the first round, in a rumoured bad draft.