Preparing for some Brown disappointment

[ArthurVandelay]

What to do with Bruce Brown?

After not being traded at the deadline, what happens now? I know many, including myself, are annoyed he wasn’t traded at the deadline but many of us, myself included, hold out hope he can still return some value on draft night.

I think the most likely trade outcome is he is traded for bad contracts or to a team seeking to duck luxury tax/CBA restrictions moving forward.

I compiled a list of bad contracts and teams with looming salary concerns to see what might be out there.

Bad contracts

Jordan Poole (3 yrs, $95m)
John Collins (2 yrs, $54m)
Dillon Brooks (3 yrs, $64m)
Kevin Huerter (2 yrs, $32m)
Harrison Barnes (2 yrs, $37m)
De’Andre Hunter (3 yrs, $70m)
Ben Simmons (1 yr, $40m)
Zach Lavine (4 yrs, $178m)
Lonzo Ball (1 yr, $21m)
Deandre Ayton (3 yrs, $102m)
Maxi Kleber (2 yrs, $22m)
Zion Williamson (4 yrs, $163m - $18m guaranteed, but could be all of it)
CJ McCollum (2 yrs, $69m)
Duncan Robinson (2 yrs, $39M, ETO $10m guaranteed last yr)
Tyler Herro (3 yrs, $93m)
Rui Hachimura (2 yrs, $35m)
Gabe Vincent (2 yrs, $22m)
Michael Porter Jr (3 yrs, $113m)
Khris Middleton (2 yrs, $64m)
Andrew Wiggins (3 yrs, $84m)


Luxury tax concerns

Teams that possibly don’t want to pay the tax or avoiding the CBA implications of being a repeater tax team or facing future extensions or need to shake deadweight to get better:

Denver Nuggets
Miami Heat
Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves
Golden State Warriors
Memphis Grizzlies
Dallas Mavericks
Atlanta Hawks
New Orleans Pelicans
Sacramento Kings
LA Lakers


Given the ask was reportedly a prospect and pick, what possibilities are there for Brown after the season or draft night?


Denver: Brown/Boucher for Porter? No firsts until 2031 unless swaps in 26/28/30. Their prospects (Braun, Strawther, Peyton) are cheap and play so unlikely to be traded.

Miami: Brown for Herro? Jovic? 2029 and 2031 firsts available.

Milwaukee: Brown for Portis, Connaughton? Beauchamps? 2031 pick?

Minnesota: Towns is likely to be moved at some point but not for Brown.


Golden State: Brown for Wiggins? Moody? 2025-2031`firsts available

Memphis: Brown for Clarke/Konchar? All own picks available

Dallas: Brown for Kleber/Green? Omax? 25/26/27/28/31 available plus raptors 25 2nd

Atlanta: Brown for Hunter/AJ? 2x 24 picks, 29/30/31 available.

NOP: Brown/Boucher for CJ? All their own picks plus Lakers 24 or 25, Bucks 27

Sacramento: Brown/Boucher for Barnes/Huerter? All their picks available from 2025 onwards.

Lakers: Brown for Vincent? Rui? JHS is awful. They will have either 24 or 25 and 29/30/31 picks plus swaps in 26/28.


Essentially, I don’t think Raptors fans should be getting excited about any future return for Brown. Maybe I’m wrong but I’m just not seeing a deal that makes it worthwhile for a team to give up a first for Brown that also makes sense for Toronto.

Anything that seems even slightly plausible would come with a bad contract (Porter, Wiggins, Hunter) and future money attached.

In summary, I don’t think Brown is going to return what Masai is looking for. I hope I’m wrong.

[KL78192020]

Cap fodder for a deal next year, or if they really want to save money just don't pick up his option. If he sucks there probably isn't much value.

[bboyskinnylegs]

I think unless there is some serious incentive available to help a team dump salary, his option isn't going to get picked up and we'll chase one or two FAs.

[ItsDanger]

When tradeable contracts become bad contracts.

[Scase]

As soon as I heard we were looking for a pick and prospect, I knew he wasn't going anywhere. Our best bet is we don't pick up his option in the off season, it seems like Masai is freeing up cap space, so I don't see any trade happening then. Feels like it was either deadline or no trade at all.

[artsncrafts]

You will be disappointed, best to move on. Probably will be a raptor until deadline next year.

[sidsid]

There are also a bunch of dead money expirings which could yield value. Ben Simmons, Clint Capella, Holmes, etc. maybe a slight chance he fits into a team's cap space if they strike out.

[Dalek]

Realistically, knowing this team they may want to negotiate with Brown if they see the fit. Bobby almost went out of his way to say they want guys in the 24-27 range - almost to include Bruce in the conversation.

The move that makes a lot of sense to me is to tell Bruce that we will decline his team option and we will offer a more normal $50m deal for 3 years (maybe even a declining deal), and even give him a PO on the backend.

From his perspective he makes basically $76m in two years of contract negotiations, and finds himself a home in Toronto. At around $15m he is more tradeable and in scale with his value. He only got that crazy deal from Indy because they had cap space and didn't want to waste it last free agency. But under the smaller more long-term deal, he has more value and doesn't clog up as much cap.

[sbsat]

this will suck as he doesn't fit the team and will be taking time from youngsters we should see what we have in. I don't see how he has more value on draft day than now, so my guess is we just cut him loose

[DreamTeam09]

Is it 2yrs for Wiggins after this yr or 3? If it's 2 I wouldn't mind that with an asset coming our way. Something like Wiggins n Moody for Brown + 31

[Lord_Zedd]

I think unless there is some serious incentive available to help a team dump salary, his option isn't going to get picked up and we'll chase one or two FAs.

That was changed a CBA or two ago. We'd have to guarantee Brown next season to trade him on draft night.

Teams trading for Brown can't slash $20 million off their books on June 30th

Edit: Just realized you werent referring about the draft - was still thinking about draft night after reading the main post

[alienchild]

What to do with Bruce Brown?

After not being traded at the deadline, what happens now? I know many, including myself, are annoyed he wasn’t traded at the deadline but many of us, myself included, hold out hope he can still return some value on draft night.

I think the most likely trade outcome is he is traded for bad contracts or to a team seeking to duck luxury tax/CBA restrictions moving forward.

I compiled a list of bad contracts and teams with looming salary concerns to see what might be out there.

Bad contracts

Jordan Poole (3 yrs, $95m)
John Collins (2 yrs, $54m)
Dillon Brooks (3 yrs, $64m)
Kevin Huerter (2 yrs, $32m)
Harrison Barnes (2 yrs, $37m)
De’Andre Hunter (3 yrs, $70m)
Ben Simmons (1 yr, $40m)
Zach Lavine (4 yrs, $178m)
Lonzo Ball (1 yr, $21m)
Deandre Ayton (3 yrs, $102m)
Maxi Kleber (2 yrs, $22m)
Zion Williamson (4 yrs, $163m - $18m guaranteed, but could be all of it)
CJ McCollum (2 yrs, $69m)
Duncan Robinson (2 yrs, $39M, ETO $10m guaranteed last yr)
Tyler Herro (3 yrs, $93m)
Rui Hachimura (2 yrs, $35m)
Gabe Vincent (2 yrs, $22m)
Michael Porter Jr (3 yrs, $113m)
Khris Middleton (2 yrs, $64m)
Andrew Wiggins (3 yrs, $84m)


Luxury tax concerns

Teams that possibly don’t want to pay the tax or avoiding the CBA implications of being a repeater tax team or facing future extensions or need to shake deadweight to get better:

Denver Nuggets
Miami Heat
Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves
Golden State Warriors
Memphis Grizzlies
Dallas Mavericks
Atlanta Hawks
New Orleans Pelicans
Sacramento Kings
LA Lakers


Given the ask was reportedly a prospect and pick, what possibilities are there for Brown after the season or draft night?


Denver: Brown/Boucher for Porter? No firsts until 2031 unless swaps in 26/28/30. Their prospects (Braun, Strawther, Peyton) are cheap and play so unlikely to be traded.

Miami: Brown for Herro? Jovic? 2029 and 2031 firsts available.

Milwaukee: Brown for Portis, Connaughton? Beauchamps? 2031 pick?

Minnesota: Towns is likely to be moved at some point but not for Brown.


Golden State: Brown for Wiggins? Moody? 2025-2031`firsts available

Memphis: Brown for Clarke/Konchar? All own picks available

Dallas: Brown for Kleber/Green? Omax? 25/26/27/28/31 available plus raptors 25 2nd

Atlanta: Brown for Hunter/AJ? 2x 24 picks, 29/30/31 available.

NOP: Brown/Boucher for CJ? All their own picks plus Lakers 24 or 25, Bucks 27

Sacramento: Brown/Boucher for Barnes/Huerter? All their picks available from 2025 onwards.

Lakers: Brown for Vincent? Rui? JHS is awful. They will have either 24 or 25 and 29/30/31 picks plus swaps in 26/28.


Essentially, I don’t think Raptors fans should be getting excited about any future return for Brown. Maybe I’m wrong but I’m just not seeing a deal that makes it worthwhile for a team to give up a first for Brown that also makes sense for Toronto.

Anything that seems even slightly plausible would come with a bad contract (Porter, Wiggins, Hunter) and future money attached.

In summary, I don’t think Brown is going to return what Masai is looking for. I hope I’m wrong.

Thanks for the expert analysis.

[JShuttlesworth]

I personally think he'll be a trade deadline deal leading up to next years deadline

[djsunyc]

more future frp's become available once the draft is over as teams like the lakers can then trade more future picks.

[TorontoRapsFan]

Omg. He gets traded for a first most likely either at draft or next season. He's not a bad contract. His worth isn't dependent on high level of play. His value will not change to competing teams. Quit with all the hair pulling people

[LBJKB24MJ23]

i mean we can sign him to a longer cheaper contract. he's been "there" and can help with surrounding Barnes with high IQ players.

He just needs/wants to buy into the system. now that he is here for the rest of the year, maybe he can find some roots and find a place to live etc. enjoy and know Toronto as a home and the fans.

4 year 15m per?

[ArthurVandelay]

Realistically, knowing this team they may want to negotiate with Brown if they see the fit. Bobby almost went out of his way to say they want guys in the 24-27 range - almost to include Bruce in the conversation.

The move that makes a lot of sense to me is to tell Bruce that we will decline his team option and we will offer a more normal $50m deal for 3 years (maybe even a declining deal), and even give him a PO on the backend.

From his perspective he makes basically $76m in two years of contract negotiations, and finds himself a home in Toronto. At around $15m he is more tradeable and in scale with his value. He only got that crazy deal from Indy because they had cap space and didn't want to waste it last free agency. But under the smaller more long-term deal, he has more value and doesn't clog up as much cap.

That is an interesting outcome too

[ArthurVandelay]

I personally think he'll be a trade deadline deal leading up to next years deadline

That is a real possibility too

I think this is more likely than him being waived

[Scase]

Realistically, knowing this team they may want to negotiate with Brown if they see the fit. Bobby almost went out of his way to say they want guys in the 24-27 range - almost to include Bruce in the conversation.

The move that makes a lot of sense to me is to tell Bruce that we will decline his team option and we will offer a more normal $50m deal for 3 years (maybe even a declining deal), and even give him a PO on the backend.

From his perspective he makes basically $76m in two years of contract negotiations, and finds himself a home in Toronto. At around $15m he is more tradeable and in scale with his value. He only got that crazy deal from Indy because they had cap space and didn't want to waste it last free agency. But under the smaller more long-term deal, he has more value and doesn't clog up as much cap.

All depends on any other offers he might get if we decline the option. Some players might just not want to play on a rebuilding team outside their home country. That said, I've not really been too impressed with him, so if we lose him I'm fine. His bricks for hands, and mediocre vision have made me yell at the TV more than a few times.

I don't see him fitting in with the "fast, smart decisions" idea we're going with.

[ArthurVandelay]

Omg. He gets traded for a first most likely either at draft or next season. He's not a bad contract. His worth isn't dependent on high level of play. His value will not change to competing teams. Quit with all the hair pulling people

I don’t think he returns a first ever. Would love to be wrong.

He’s an overpaid, very good role/bench player on a very good team.

I think the market showed this trade deadline he isn’t returning a first.