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Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect

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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#821 » by JB7 » Fri Apr 26, 2024 6:42 pm

ConSarnit wrote:
JB7 wrote:
ConSarnit wrote:
As for Scottie being a number 1, I’m sure they were hoping he’d grow into that role. In the meantime we wouldn’t be facing salary constraints because of Barnes rookie deal.

I don’t know how you think FVV wouldn’t be tradable on a 4/120ish contract. In his 3rd and 4th years of his deal he’d be making the equivalent of $24-25m this season. You don’t think FVV is tradable at $25m this year? And guess what Siakam’s deal would have been in his 3rd year: 28% of the cap. Care to guess what Siakam’s deal is as a percent of the cap this year? 28%. All of these guys projected contracts were tradable. They all would have been signed under the old cap environment and thus retained trade value. The problem wasn’t each individual number as much as it was having a bunch of guys making $30m+, which exhausts your cap space pretty quickly.


Siakam won’t be tradeable on that new deal. The Raps got relatively little for him and that was with him expiring. So the Pacers know they can keep him by giving him the max, or if it didn’t work out they could have walked away.

If Pacers decide to trade Pascal after resigning him, he’ll probably have negative value on that new max contract.


The Raps got relatively little because he was expiring. Expiring players don't fetch more in trades, they fetch less.

Also consider Siakam's new contract relative to the cap.

Siakam's current salary as % of the cap: 28%

Siakam's future salary as % of the cap: 29%

As an expiring on the the exact same deal he is about to get, Siakam got 3 1sts. We sold him at his lowest value. He'd have to have a huge decline in value to go from 3 1sts as an expiring to negative value. He could be negative value by his 4th-5th year of his new deal but that wouldn't have precluded us from trading him before that point and as we've seen teams (stupidly) don't usually factor those possible decline years when trading for a player. As long as Pascal keeps playing near the same level he's playing at other teams aren't just going to assume he'll suddenly fall off in his 4th year. Over and over teams have shown they will take that risk.

Siakam's new deal will likely be tradable for positive (or neutral at worst) value. He's just barely going to turn 34 when his new deal ends. Maybe the 4th year gets rocky for the Pacers but by that time he's expiring.


Normally, a player on an expiring deal generally has less value, but Pascal's situation is a bit more unique, as part of the deal was clearly him ending up on a team willing to extend him at the max, and probably for 5 years, since that is that added bonus a team that has him can offer the 5th year.

The likelihood of Siakam taking the Sixers offer is less, if he wants that 5th year, and resulted in him forcing himself to a team willing to pay it, which it looks like Pacers will.

So the Pacers knew they were getting Siakam most likely for a long-term situation, and still offered relatively little. I think that was for two reasons:
1) If it didn't work out with Pascal for the rest of the season (bad fit on the team), the Pacers could walk away and not sign the extension, and not have given much of value off the current roster.
2) The extension for Siakam was not seen as a net benefit, and probably actually an anchor on his future value, with respect to any potential future deals if they wanted to flip him for other assets, especially since it will most likely be a 5 year contract.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#822 » by Ell Curry » Fri Apr 26, 2024 10:26 pm

Blame for our return on Siakam falls on Masai, for waiting way too long. Had to realize it was a bad fit with Barnes in terms of timeline and really bad in terms of on-court fit.

Also some annoyance towards like the Kings and Warriors not going all-in for a quality PF and 2nd option for Golden State and a nice big 3 for Sacramento, and now sitting in the late lottery and looking pretty far off from contention.

I mainly bumped this thread to say that Carlisle has dropped Jalen Smith and Isaiah Jackson from the rotation 2 games into the playoffs to play Ben Sheppard and keep it an 8 man rotation, so I get why they wouldn't send us Sheppard, but we really should have gotten Jackson as a backup we could maybe keep on a nice contract and try to develop, even if it meant sending them the pick we traded for Olynyk/Agbaji. Productive backup centers often sign very reasonable RFA deals because nobody is coming in big for them and a nice Nick Richards style deal (15M for 3 years) while we develop Jackson would have been useful here, maybe even opening up a Poeltl deal at some point.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#823 » by Merit » Fri Apr 26, 2024 10:43 pm

JB7 wrote:
mdenny wrote:
ConSarnit wrote:
He won rookie of the year in a pretty good draft class. Expectations had to be pretty high. If he hadn’t stagnated and played like he did this year in his 2nd season (improved shooting and defense) then that might have moved the chains as far as the team’s ceiling was concerned. ROY’s usually make progress in their 2nd year, they don’t usually regress like Barnes did imo.

As per having 5 guys taking up most of the cap, those guys are more easily moveable if they aren’t on bloated deals (like Houston gave to FVV). Even with those 5 signed we would still have been $20m below the tax. The team probably wouldn’t have been tenable long term but we wouldn’t have been handcuffed anywhere.

I don’t think it was a great plan but I bet if you asked the front office they thought they’d be able to keep everyone on moveable deals (which seems to be Masai’s M.O even dating back to the Nene deal).


Fred's deal is totally tradeable next season. It's a 40 million expiring. Those have alot of worth notwithstanding who the player is.


The Rockets need the money off the books so they can re-sign Green. They can’t take back contracts from another team.

Fred might be left with having to take an MLE deal from another team. Unless a team with cap space wants to overpay a 31 year old Fred.


A 31 year old Fred is worth more than the MLE. Please stop with the nonsense. Just because his tenure didn’t go well at the end here doesn’t mean he loses all value as a player.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#824 » by JB7 » Fri Apr 26, 2024 11:07 pm

Merit wrote:
JB7 wrote:
mdenny wrote:
Fred's deal is totally tradeable next season. It's a 40 million expiring. Those have alot of worth notwithstanding who the player is.


The Rockets need the money off the books so they can re-sign Green. They can’t take back contracts from another team.

Fred might be left with having to take an MLE deal from another team. Unless a team with cap space wants to overpay a 31 year old Fred.


A 31 year old Fred is worth more than the MLE. Please stop with the nonsense. Just because his tenure didn’t go well at the end here doesn’t mean he loses all value as a player.


When he loses his bird rights, it is not just about his value anymore. It then comes down to what teams have cap space, and where they want to spend it. Even his big pay day last summer only happened because Udoka wanted him over Harden. Otherwise, he would have had to take the Raps deal.

If the Rockets don't pick up his option, he is left to an uncertain situation.

Westbrook is only making $4M this year. Do you think he is worth just $4M?
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#825 » by mdenny » Sat Apr 27, 2024 12:53 am

JB7 wrote:
Merit wrote:
JB7 wrote:
The Rockets need the money off the books so they can re-sign Green. They can’t take back contracts from another team.

Fred might be left with having to take an MLE deal from another team. Unless a team with cap space wants to overpay a 31 year old Fred.


A 31 year old Fred is worth more than the MLE. Please stop with the nonsense. Just because his tenure didn’t go well at the end here doesn’t mean he loses all value as a player.


When he loses his bird rights, it is not just about his value anymore. It then comes down to what teams have cap space, and where they want to spend it. Even his big pay day last summer only happened because Udoka wanted him over Harden. Otherwise, he would have had to take the Raps deal.

If the Rockets don't pick up his option, he is left to an uncertain situation.

Westbrook is only making $4M this year. Do you think he is worth just $4M?


Players don't 'own' bird rights. Teams do. Bird rights aren't even in a player's best interest. They serve the team's best interest. Unrestricted free agency is what players want and is what Fred will have.

You're making a big deal out of bird rights and I have no idea why. He will be an unrestricted free agent if houston doesn't pick up the team option. This is not an unusual situation and is perfectly normal for a 31 year old player. It's not any sort of loss of leveredge for fred. He will get paid handsomely regardless barring injury. Especially after last season.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#826 » by 2019nbachamps » Sat Apr 27, 2024 1:30 am

JB7 wrote:
Merit wrote:
JB7 wrote:
The Rockets need the money off the books so they can re-sign Green. They can’t take back contracts from another team.

Fred might be left with having to take an MLE deal from another team. Unless a team with cap space wants to overpay a 31 year old Fred.


A 31 year old Fred is worth more than the MLE. Please stop with the nonsense. Just because his tenure didn’t go well at the end here doesn’t mean he loses all value as a player.


When he loses his bird rights, it is not just about his value anymore. It then comes down to what teams have cap space, and where they want to spend it. Even his big pay day last summer only happened because Udoka wanted him over Harden. Otherwise, he would have had to take the Raps deal.

If the Rockets don't pick up his option, he is left to an uncertain situation.

Westbrook is only making $4M this year. Do you think he is worth just $4M?


Russ is taking $4m because he wants to play in LA. He’s also made a ton of money in his career so has different priorities now (winning and being at home).

Fred will have a market next summer. He’s going to get $30m/yr no problem.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#827 » by 2019nbachamps » Sat Apr 27, 2024 1:32 am

mdenny wrote:
JB7 wrote:
Merit wrote:
A 31 year old Fred is worth more than the MLE. Please stop with the nonsense. Just because his tenure didn’t go well at the end here doesn’t mean he loses all value as a player.


When he loses his bird rights, it is not just about his value anymore. It then comes down to what teams have cap space, and where they want to spend it. Even his big pay day last summer only happened because Udoka wanted him over Harden. Otherwise, he would have had to take the Raps deal.

If the Rockets don't pick up his option, he is left to an uncertain situation.

Westbrook is only making $4M this year. Do you think he is worth just $4M?


Players don't 'own' bird rights. Teams do. Bird rights aren't even in a player's best interest. They serve the team's best interest. Unrestricted free agency is what players want and is what Fred will have.

You're making a big deal out of bird rights and I have no idea why. He will be an unrestricted free agent if houston doesn't pick up the team option. This is not an unusual situation and is perfectly normal for a 31 year old player. It's not any sort of loss of leveredge for fred. He will get paid handsomely regardless barring injury. Especially after last season.


Bird rights benefit players in that their incumbent team can pay them more than anyone else in the NBA.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#828 » by JB7 » Sat Apr 27, 2024 1:35 am

mdenny wrote:
JB7 wrote:
Merit wrote:
A 31 year old Fred is worth more than the MLE. Please stop with the nonsense. Just because his tenure didn’t go well at the end here doesn’t mean he loses all value as a player.


When he loses his bird rights, it is not just about his value anymore. It then comes down to what teams have cap space, and where they want to spend it. Even his big pay day last summer only happened because Udoka wanted him over Harden. Otherwise, he would have had to take the Raps deal.

If the Rockets don't pick up his option, he is left to an uncertain situation.

Westbrook is only making $4M this year. Do you think he is worth just $4M?


Players don't 'own' bird rights. Teams do. Bird rights aren't even in a player's best interest. They serve the team's best interest. Unrestricted free agency is what players want and is what Fred will have.

You're making a big deal out of bird rights and I have no idea why. He will be an unrestricted free agent if houston doesn't pick up the team option. This is not an unusual situation and is perfectly normal for a 31 year old player. It's not any sort of loss of leveredge for fred. He will get paid handsomely regardless barring injury. Especially after last season.


Players want teams to maintain their bird rights, so that there are less restrictions on them getting paid max money. It is the reason Pascal gave the Raps such a hard time, and was killing potential deals. He wanted to end up on a team where his bird rights would matter.

When Fred hits FA, if Houston opts out of his 3rd year, then he has to compete with other FA's in that class for what cap dollars exist.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#829 » by mdenny » Sat Apr 27, 2024 1:41 am

JB7 wrote:
mdenny wrote:
JB7 wrote:
When he loses his bird rights, it is not just about his value anymore. It then comes down to what teams have cap space, and where they want to spend it. Even his big pay day last summer only happened because Udoka wanted him over Harden. Otherwise, he would have had to take the Raps deal.

If the Rockets don't pick up his option, he is left to an uncertain situation.

Westbrook is only making $4M this year. Do you think he is worth just $4M?


Players don't 'own' bird rights. Teams do. Bird rights aren't even in a player's best interest. They serve the team's best interest. Unrestricted free agency is what players want and is what Fred will have.

You're making a big deal out of bird rights and I have no idea why. He will be an unrestricted free agent if houston doesn't pick up the team option. This is not an unusual situation and is perfectly normal for a 31 year old player. It's not any sort of loss of leveredge for fred. He will get paid handsomely regardless barring injury. Especially after last season.


Players want teams to maintain their bird rights, so that there are less restrictions on them getting paid max money. It is the reason Pascal gave the Raps such a hard time, and was killing potential deals. He wanted to end up on a team where his bird rights would matter.

When Fred hits FA, if Houston opts out of his 3rd year, then he has to compete with other FA's in that class for what cap dollars exist.



Bro this doesn't make any sense. Did you think Fred was hoping to get 48 milly per year with the rockets using his bird rights? But then he's also at risk of signing for the MLE?

He will get 25 to 30 milly per year. There is zero chance of him getting 48 milly and zero chance of a team signing him for the MLE.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#830 » by JB7 » Sat Apr 27, 2024 1:45 am

mdenny wrote:
JB7 wrote:
mdenny wrote:
Players don't 'own' bird rights. Teams do. Bird rights aren't even in a player's best interest. They serve the team's best interest. Unrestricted free agency is what players want and is what Fred will have.

You're making a big deal out of bird rights and I have no idea why. He will be an unrestricted free agent if houston doesn't pick up the team option. This is not an unusual situation and is perfectly normal for a 31 year old player. It's not any sort of loss of leveredge for fred. He will get paid handsomely regardless barring injury. Especially after last season.


Players want teams to maintain their bird rights, so that there are less restrictions on them getting paid max money. It is the reason Pascal gave the Raps such a hard time, and was killing potential deals. He wanted to end up on a team where his bird rights would matter.

When Fred hits FA, if Houston opts out of his 3rd year, then he has to compete with other FA's in that class for what cap dollars exist.



Bro this doesn't make any sense. Did you think Fred was hoping to get 48 milly per year with the rockets using his bird rights? But then he's also at risk of signing for the MLE?

He will get 25 to 30 milly per year. There is zero chance of him getting 48 milly and zero chance of a team signing him for the MLE.


He'll get $25M to $30M if a bottom feeder team has that cap space and thinks investing it in Fred is better than what else is available in FA. Depending on what the Spurs do this offseason, they might sign him.

Problem is all the good teams, where he would be a good complementary piece will not have any cap space. So the only option to join one of those teams is the MLE.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#831 » by ConSarnit » Sat Apr 27, 2024 2:57 am

JB7 wrote:
mdenny wrote:
JB7 wrote:
Players want teams to maintain their bird rights, so that there are less restrictions on them getting paid max money. It is the reason Pascal gave the Raps such a hard time, and was killing potential deals. He wanted to end up on a team where his bird rights would matter.

When Fred hits FA, if Houston opts out of his 3rd year, then he has to compete with other FA's in that class for what cap dollars exist.



Bro this doesn't make any sense. Did you think Fred was hoping to get 48 milly per year with the rockets using his bird rights? But then he's also at risk of signing for the MLE?

He will get 25 to 30 milly per year. There is zero chance of him getting 48 milly and zero chance of a team signing him for the MLE.


He'll get $25M to $30M if a bottom feeder team has that cap space and thinks investing it in Fred is better than what else is available in FA. Depending on what the Spurs do this offseason, they might sign him.

Problem is all the good teams, where he would be a good complementary piece will not have any cap space. So the only option to join one of those teams is the MLE.


You do realize that if Fred gets his option declined he’s going to become a free agent under the following circumstances:

-31 years old. Not an age where he would be expected to have declined

-hits volume 3’s, can defend and run offense. Basically a valuable player type to every team in the league

-is going to become a UFA during a year when the cap is expected to spike 10%, therefor freeing up more money

-will be 1 year removed from this season, in which he was good. This season was similar to his previous season where he had multiple offers above $25m per season. Do you see where I’m going here?

If Fred gets his option declined teams are going to line up to try and sign and trade for FVV if he’s only going to get $20m. Half the league will try to get him if he’s willing to get paid that cheap.

The MLE is reserved for the Dennis Schroder’s of the world, not proven starters like Fred. Fred will get paid either as a UFA or in a sign and trade. He’s not getting the MLE because every team with an MLE level player would trade that player + flotsam to upgrade to FVV at $20-25m a year (which would be a bargain deal).

Just consider how many teams would send out flotsam salary to get FVV on $20m deal and then reconsider your “only bad teams will pay Fred” position.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#832 » by JB7 » Sat Apr 27, 2024 3:43 am

ConSarnit wrote:
JB7 wrote:
mdenny wrote:

Bro this doesn't make any sense. Did you think Fred was hoping to get 48 milly per year with the rockets using his bird rights? But then he's also at risk of signing for the MLE?

He will get 25 to 30 milly per year. There is zero chance of him getting 48 milly and zero chance of a team signing him for the MLE.


He'll get $25M to $30M if a bottom feeder team has that cap space and thinks investing it in Fred is better than what else is available in FA. Depending on what the Spurs do this offseason, they might sign him.

Problem is all the good teams, where he would be a good complementary piece will not have any cap space. So the only option to join one of those teams is the MLE.


You do realize that if Fred gets his option declined he’s going to become a free agent under the following circumstances:

-31 years old. Not an age where he would be expected to have declined

-hits volume 3’s, can defend and run offense. Basically a valuable player type to every team in the league

-is going to become a UFA during a year when the cap is expected to spike 10%, therefor freeing up more money

-will be 1 year removed from this season, in which he was good. This season was similar to his previous season where he had multiple offers above $25m per season. Do you see where I’m going here?

If Fred gets his option declined teams are going to line up to try and sign and trade for FVV if he’s only going to get $20m. Half the league will try to get him if he’s willing to get paid that cheap.

The MLE is reserved for the Dennis Schroder’s of the world, not proven starters like Fred. Fred will get paid either as a UFA or in a sign and trade. He’s not getting the MLE because every team with an MLE level player would trade that player + flotsam to upgrade to FVV at $20-25m a year (which would be a bargain deal).

Just consider how many teams would send out flotsam salary to get FVV on $20m deal and then reconsider your “only bad teams will pay Fred” position.


I get what you guys are saying. Fred is a valuable and teams would easily pay him if they could clear space.

My argument is that most teams are going to be capped out. According to Spotrac, cap is projected to be $155M in 2025-26, and the only teams currently projected to have cap space are: DET, IND, OKC, PHI, SAS, UTA, with only UTA, DET and PHI having serious cap space. Presuming Sixers sign someone this offseason, they are off the list. Once Pascal and Turner are extended, Indy is completely off the list. OKC is not investing major dollars in Fred, when they have their own big 3 to pay. Maybe SAS tries to clear space, if they can't get a PG this offseason.

I get that things will change, and teams will try to create space. It is just hard to clear that much space below the cap, especially when so many of the good teams are operating around the luxury tax.

This is where Bird rights are so critical, because the team holding those rights can blow past those thresholds (cap & lux tax) to sign the player.

It would be hilarious though to see him join NN on the Sixers.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#833 » by bballsparkin » Sat Apr 27, 2024 4:05 am

I spent way too much time reading "trade Pascal idea" threads. And honestly I can't think of one good offer that was out there. Maybe the GSW for their young players. But they still haven't even shown the worth in that trade. And that's not even considering their tax bill concerns. Sure it makes sense trading him earlier would have fetched a better return. Yet it's hard not to consider the circumstances. It was a strange time. The bubble and Tampa. Reading those threads there was one repeating theme however. Masai is so hard to deal with, unreasonable demands, FO's are done trying to make deals with them. Then when the Raptors FO finally make a deal "what a rip off!". That strikes me as funny.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#834 » by OAKLEY_2 » Sat Apr 27, 2024 12:14 pm

Basically nothing. What?

Bruce Brown (via Pacers)
Kira Lewis (via Pelicans)
Jordan Nwora (via Pacers)
Two 2024 first-round picks (via Pacers)
Conditional 2026 first-round pick (via Pacers)

Then a follow up.
Raptors surrender Pacers late first-round pick in 2024 for solid big man in Olynyk and a promising young prospect in Agbaji, who was the 14th overall pick in the 2022 draft. They gave up (money throw in) Kira Lewis and spare part Otto Porter waived/retired.

So the final tally.
Bruce Brown (via Pacers) age 27
Jordan Nwora (via Pacers) age 25
One first round 2024 first-round pick #19 (via Pacers)
Conditional 2026 first-round pick (via Pacers)
Kelly Olynyk age 32
Ochai Agbaji age 22

This shakes down as two rotation depth vets in Brown, an NBA champion with Denver, and Olynyk a Journeyman rotation player and Olympian. Plus, Ochai Agbaji, a young prospect full of defensive ability and Jordan Nwora unrestricted free agent with size and shooting from Buffalo. The number 19 pick in 2024. The #? first round pick in 2026.

For lack of any consistent takes from the many mocks Bleacher Report (still has us at 17 as of April 11 which we know is #19). Bleacher Report has JaKobe Walter and Zac Edey available at the Pacers pick. Would be extremely happy with ether.

So that's 5 bodies 2 to 2.5 of whom will be on the Scottie Timeline. Agbaji, possibly Zac Edey (or JaKobe Walter), Scottie bubble timeliner Nwora, depth big Olynyk and 6th man or trade chip a healthy Bruce Brown.

I think Masai, who never wanted to part with Fred or Paskal having plucked them from obscurity was clearly, finally, on plan B. Is 5 rotation players for Paskal, a 27th pick Senior, nothing? We haven't even mentioned not paying Fred 42/ or Paskal multi year similar. Fred, Paskal and agents wanted the best business deal. We punted. Good down field tackling was simply not overpaying the two 2019 champions and allstars. We are a victim of our own development success.

At the very worst the back end of our roster is not populated with two way towel waivers. What happens with Brown is a big yet to be determined component on how to assess this deal which so far is a proposition of quantity and probability of mostly unknowns over quality.

It is not to be scoffed at.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#835 » by OAKLEY_2 » Sat Apr 27, 2024 12:30 pm

Anyone who thinks, myself included, Poetl could be traded misses on his intangible leadership and game impact. The real story is other than Brown we are out of trade chips. 905 is vitally important now.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#836 » by Merit » Sat Apr 27, 2024 12:34 pm

JB7 wrote:
mdenny wrote:
JB7 wrote:
When he loses his bird rights, it is not just about his value anymore. It then comes down to what teams have cap space, and where they want to spend it. Even his big pay day last summer only happened because Udoka wanted him over Harden. Otherwise, he would have had to take the Raps deal.

If the Rockets don't pick up his option, he is left to an uncertain situation.

Westbrook is only making $4M this year. Do you think he is worth just $4M?


Players don't 'own' bird rights. Teams do. Bird rights aren't even in a player's best interest. They serve the team's best interest. Unrestricted free agency is what players want and is what Fred will have.

You're making a big deal out of bird rights and I have no idea why. He will be an unrestricted free agent if houston doesn't pick up the team option. This is not an unusual situation and is perfectly normal for a 31 year old player. It's not any sort of loss of leveredge for fred. He will get paid handsomely regardless barring injury. Especially after last season.


Players want teams to maintain their bird rights, so that there are less restrictions on them getting paid max money. It is the reason Pascal gave the Raps such a hard time, and was killing potential deals. He wanted to end up on a team where his bird rights would matter.

When Fred hits FA, if Houston opts out of his 3rd year, then he has to compete with other FA's in that class for what cap dollars exist.


…and he’ll still get paid because he’s worth more than the MLE, bird rights or not.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#837 » by Merit » Sat Apr 27, 2024 12:39 pm

JB7 wrote:
ConSarnit wrote:
JB7 wrote:
He'll get $25M to $30M if a bottom feeder team has that cap space and thinks investing it in Fred is better than what else is available in FA. Depending on what the Spurs do this offseason, they might sign him.

Problem is all the good teams, where he would be a good complementary piece will not have any cap space. So the only option to join one of those teams is the MLE.


You do realize that if Fred gets his option declined he’s going to become a free agent under the following circumstances:

-31 years old. Not an age where he would be expected to have declined

-hits volume 3’s, can defend and run offense. Basically a valuable player type to every team in the league

-is going to become a UFA during a year when the cap is expected to spike 10%, therefor freeing up more money

-will be 1 year removed from this season, in which he was good. This season was similar to his previous season where he had multiple offers above $25m per season. Do you see where I’m going here?

If Fred gets his option declined teams are going to line up to try and sign and trade for FVV if he’s only going to get $20m. Half the league will try to get him if he’s willing to get paid that cheap.

The MLE is reserved for the Dennis Schroder’s of the world, not proven starters like Fred. Fred will get paid either as a UFA or in a sign and trade. He’s not getting the MLE because every team with an MLE level player would trade that player + flotsam to upgrade to FVV at $20-25m a year (which would be a bargain deal).

Just consider how many teams would send out flotsam salary to get FVV on $20m deal and then reconsider your “only bad teams will pay Fred” position.


I get what you guys are saying. Fred is a valuable and teams would easily pay him if they could clear space.

My argument is that most teams are going to be capped out. According to Spotrac, cap is projected to be $155M in 2025-26, and the only teams currently projected to have cap space are: DET, IND, OKC, PHI, SAS, UTA, with only UTA, DET and PHI having serious cap space. Presuming Sixers sign someone this offseason, they are off the list. Once Pascal and Turner are extended, Indy is completely off the list. OKC is not investing major dollars in Fred, when they have their own big 3 to pay. Maybe SAS tries to clear space, if they can't get a PG this offseason.

I get that things will change, and teams will try to create space. It is just hard to clear that much space below the cap, especially when so many of the good teams are operating around the luxury tax.

This is where Bird rights are so critical, because the team holding those rights can blow past those thresholds (cap & lux tax) to sign the player.

It would be hilarious though to see him join NN on the Sixers.


Please stop. All consarnit had to say was the cap is going up and that’s why Fred put an option in his contract. He’s looking to maximize his career earnings.

Bird rights in this case mean bupkis. Just own that you severely underrated Fred’s value because you weren’t able to see it. That’s okay. It’s better than looking silly when you keep hammering at a point that’s largely irrelevant.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#838 » by causal_fan » Sat Apr 27, 2024 12:50 pm

IMO the Raptors will come out ahead in the Siakam trade because his value over the next 2 years would have been underutilized by the Raptors in addition to the $ cost - we probably have to wait years to evaluate the Raptors end of the deal including how the Raptors use the plus 40m that Siakam would cost - how well Siakam plays for the Pacers doesn't really affect the Raptors end of the deal except for the potential 2026 pick.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#839 » by 2019nbachamps » Sat Apr 27, 2024 1:01 pm

OAKLEY_2 wrote:Basically nothing. What?

Bruce Brown (via Pacers)
Kira Lewis (via Pelicans)
Jordan Nwora (via Pacers)
Two 2024 first-round picks (via Pacers)
Conditional 2026 first-round pick (via Pacers)

Then a follow up.
Raptors surrender Pacers late first-round pick in 2024 for solid big man in Olynyk and a promising young prospect in Agbaji, who was the 14th overall pick in the 2022 draft. They gave up (money throw in) Kira Lewis and spare part Otto Porter waived/retired.

So the final tally.
Bruce Brown (via Pacers) age 27
Jordan Nwora (via Pacers) age 25
One first round 2024 first-round pick #19 (via Pacers)
Conditional 2026 first-round pick (via Pacers)
Kelly Olynyk age 32
Ochai Agbaji age 22

This shakes down as two rotation depth vets in Brown, an NBA champion with Denver, and Olynyk a Journeyman rotation player and Olympian. Plus, Ochai Agbaji, a young prospect full of defensive ability and Jordan Nwora unrestricted free agent with size and shooting from Buffalo. The number 19 pick in 2024. The #? first round pick in 2026.

For lack of any consistent takes from the many mocks Bleacher Report (still has us at 17 as of April 11 which we know is #19). Bleacher Report has JaKobe Walter and Zac Edey available at the Pacers pick. Would be extremely happy with ether.

So that's 5 bodies 2 to 2.5 of whom will be on the Scottie Timeline. Agbaji, possibly Zac Edey (or JaKobe Walter), Scottie bubble timeliner Nwora, depth big Olynyk and 6th man or trade chip a healthy Bruce Brown.

I think Masai, who never wanted to part with Fred or Paskal having plucked them from obscurity was clearly, finally, on plan B. Is 5 rotation players for Paskal, a 27th pick Senior, nothing? We haven't even mentioned not paying Fred 42/ or Paskal multi year similar. Fred, Paskal and agents wanted the best business deal. We punted. Good down field tackling was simply not overpaying the two 2019 champions and allstars. We are a victim of our own development success.

At the very worst the back end of our roster is not populated with two way towel waivers. What happens with Brown is a big yet to be determined component on how to assess this deal which so far is a proposition of quantity and probability of mostly unknowns over quality.

It is not to be scoffed at.


Sorry man but you laying it out like this gives me PTSD of the Vince Carter trade.

As you know, stars carry a premium in the NBA since they have an outsized impact on winning. We don’t know if Nwora and Agbaji are NBA players. Moreover, our front office hasn’t hit on a single prospect acquired on the margins in 5+ years (dating back to hitting on FVV, Siakam, Powell). I’m not going to call these guys busts, but it’s fair for fans to keep expectations low.

Olynk is not an impact player. Nice to have more depth but he isn’t going to do much for him.

The draft picks are TBDs but seem like they’ll be low due to the Pacers trending up.

Bruce Brown has trade value and will increase the overall return for Siakam. Let’s wait to see what we get.

Overall, the return for Siakam was a B-/C so given we didn’t get any impact players or projected high draft picks back. The one saving grace is it gives us cap flexibility which I value at a time we’re rebuilding.

Another useful way of assessing the trade is by comparing it to other star player trades in the NBA the last few seasons, and focusing on guys with 0-1 years left on their deals. In every example I can think of the return was better than what the Raptors got for Siakam.
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Re: Siakam trade for basically nothing is now showing its effect 

Post#840 » by OAKLEY_2 » Sat Apr 27, 2024 1:51 pm

PTSD is treatable and we have done better than Ewil Awil and giving Alonzo 10 mil. Stop the fake comparisons. Vince was twice or more the player Siakam is-was. The comparison is brutally dishonest. The Rudy Gay trade is a better comparison. That and Lowry were first moves in a process that brought the Larry OB to Toronto. That is on the resume no denying. Comparing Masai to Babcock VC deal is revisionist history with added tabloid fakery. You should know better.

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