Why Do We Want To Keep The Pick This Year?

[Indeed]

Sorry, I don't see we are in the #15 to #18 range. We are more in the #7 to #13 range. Therefore the scenarios are:

If we miss the play-in tournament and are in the lottery, our pick in the 2025 draft could be somewhere between #7 and #14, but if we make the play-in tournament as one of the #7 to #10 seeds that pick could end up somewhere between #15 and #18 instead.

SCENARIO #1: Keep on of the top 6 picks in the 2024 draft. Convey the #10 pick in the 2025 draft
SCENARIO #2: Convey the #7 or #8 pick in the 2024 draft. Keep the pick in the 2025 draft, which allows you to 1) trade future pick 2) have another change to get a higher pick (serious in tanking).

Yes, if we convey the pick this draft that would allow us the flexibility to trade a future pick anytime this season but the same can be said of the 2025 draft and off-season should we not convey our pick until then.

Obviously, scenario #2 is better from many perspective, because you got control of your pick and you can make a decision tank harder or trade future pick. Way more flexible.

During the past 23 seasons, our winning percentage was less than 40% in 2005-06 (32.9%), 2011-12 (34.8%), and 2021-22 (37.5%) and only dipped below 30% in 2002-03 (29.3%) and 2010-11 (26.8%). The rest of the time our record saw us win just over 40% of our games to end up with a 41.5% win percentage in 2012-13 and 40.2% win percentage in 2003-04, 2004-05, and 2008-09.

During the past 23 seasons, we've only tanked harder than we have this year two other times - during the 2002-03 and 2010-11 seasons. During the past 23 seasons, how many times have we traded our first round draft pick before the draft?

While the scenarios you proposed are possible and would give the team more flexibility in theory, they aren't very probable and are unlikely to affect the decisions the FO makes moving forward.

You don't have to put unrealistic winning percentage for our current core, they are far from creating their own shots to win games for us.

[dohboy_24]

You don't have to put unrealistic winning percentage for our current core, [b]they are far from creating their own shots to win games for us.[/b]

SCENARIO #2: Convey the #7 or #8 pick in the 2024 draft. Keep the pick in the 2025 draft, which allows you to 1) trade future pick 2) have another change to get a higher pick (serious in tanking).

Obviously, scenario #2 is better from many perspective, because you got control of your pick and you can make a decision tank harder or trade future pick. Way more flexible.

If we make the decision to tank harder to get a higher pick in the 2025 draft, those are the types of winning percentages we'd have to end the season with to secure a top 6 pick.

I'm not predicting our record to end up being such, I'm just suggesting that's what it would need to be should the team decide to tank harder to secure a better pick in the 2025 draft as you've proposed...

We are unlikely to be bottom 6th next year, and unlikely to be in the playoffs.

Sorry, I don't see we are in the #15 to #18 range. We are more in the #7 to #13 range.

If we are unlikely to be among the 6 worst records, yet also unlikely to be in the playoffs and among the top 6 best teams in the East, our record next year would likely land in the range of the 7th to 18th worst in the league.

This season, the 7th worst record is Memphis with 27 wins & 51 losses for a 34.6% winning percentage while the 18th worst record is New Orleans with 46 wins & 32 losses for a 59% winning percentage.

I'm not trying to put an unrealistic winning percentage on our current core and agree they can create their own shots to win games, but if they're not going to be a top 6 team in the East and aren't going to be a bottom 6 team in the NBA, the range of possible outcomes suggest we could end up winning somewhere between 30% to 60% of our games next season.

At best, we're likely going to win half of our games next season and end up with the #11, #12, #13, or #14 pick in the 2025 draft and at worst, we'll win 3-4 games out of every 10 we play and end up with the #7, #8, #9, or #10 pick.

So... would you rather have the #4 pick in the 2024 draft or the #8 pick in the 2025 draft?
What about the #6 pick in the 2024 draft or the #12 pick in the 2025 draft?

At #4 or #6, we could pick Stephon Castle or Donovan Clingan and walk away with one of the key players from UConn's championship team. Otherwise we can wait until next year to get a pick that will likely be two times worse that will give us the opportunity to select an unknown player who likely won't have the same resume after just one season of college experience.

Given the opportunity we'd have to select either of these two players among the top 6 picks in the 2024 draft, who would you pick at #8 or #12 in the 2025 draft ahead of them?

[Indeed]

You don't have to put unrealistic winning percentage for our current core, [b]they are far from creating their own shots to win games for us.[/b]

SCENARIO #2: Convey the #7 or #8 pick in the 2024 draft. Keep the pick in the 2025 draft, which allows you to 1) trade future pick 2) have another change to get a higher pick (serious in tanking).

Obviously, scenario #2 is better from many perspective, because you got control of your pick and you can make a decision tank harder or trade future pick. Way more flexible.

If we make the decision to tank harder to get a higher pick in the 2025 draft, those are the types of winning percentages we'd have to end the season with to secure a top 6 pick.

I'm not predicting our record to end up being such, I'm just suggesting that's what it would need to be should the team decide to tank harder to secure a better pick in the 2025 draft as you've proposed...

We are unlikely to be bottom 6th next year, and unlikely to be in the playoffs.

Sorry, I don't see we are in the #15 to #18 range. We are more in the #7 to #13 range.

If we are unlikely to be among the 6 worst records, yet also unlikely to be in the playoffs and among the top 6 best teams in the East, our record next year would likely land in the range of the 7th to 18th worst in the league.

This season, the 7th worst record is Memphis with 27 wins & 51 losses for a 34.6% winning percentage while the 18th worst record is New Orleans with 46 wins & 32 losses for a 59% winning percentage.

I'm not trying to put an unrealistic winning percentage on our current core and agree they can create their own shots to win games, but if they're not going to be a top 6 team in the East and aren't going to be a bottom 6 team in the NBA, the range of possible outcomes suggest we could end up winning somewhere between 30% to 60% of our games next season.

At best, we're likely going to win half of our games next season and end up with the #11, #12, #13, or #14 pick in the 2025 draft and at worst, we'll win 3-4 games out of every 10 we play and end up with the #7, #8, #9, or #10 pick.

So... would you rather have the #4 pick in the 2024 draft or the #8 pick in the 2025 draft?
What about the #6 pick in the 2024 draft or the #12 pick in the 2025 draft?

At #4 or #6, we could pick Stephon Castle or Donovan Clingan and walk away with one of the key players from UConn's championship team. Otherwise we can wait until next year to get a pick that will likely be two times worse that will give us the opportunity to select an unknown player who likely won't have the same resume after just one season of college experience.

Given the opportunity we'd have to select either of these two players among the top 6 picks in the 2024 draft, who would you pick at #8 or #12 in the 2025 draft ahead of them?

Keep in mind that we aren't better than New Orleans with Siakam. Even one of BBQ can become Siakam level, we are not better than 50% record. Yet, we are not worse than Memphis. It is very likely we are between 30% and 40%, won't make the playin and not bad enough against the ultra tanking teams (this year already proved we can't tank better than those teams with BBQ).

As for next year, I don't need to pick, but definitely has higher ceilings. All I feel is that in 2025, there are higher ceiling players in Zikarsky / Bidunga who would project better than Clingan in lower pick. The comparison in Castle will have to wait for next year, but there are few high ceiling players who are projected to be better and may able to find one near lottery.

[mrsocko]

Manifest destiny. Bet against yourself, then spend the next few years proving you didn't make a mistake...by tanking.

Well you clearly don't have any idea what manifest destiny means. Smfh.

He made the mistake, he manifested it.

Thanks for explaining what manifest destiny means. I always wondered.

[DelAbbot]

He's defending the trade at this point.

It will look even worse on Masai's Poeltl mistake if and when we convey the 7th (we finish 6th but someone bumps us). Not sure why he's risking his entire reputation by tanking this hard with only ~50% chance of keeping this 2024 FRP.

[DelAbbot]

It's simple. We're not going to be this bad again next season. Scottie, Quickley, RJ, Dick, and Ochai will all have had another off-season of development under their belt.

Ending up with a top-6 pick this season will be better than ending up with an 11-15 pick next year.

It's these takes that brings me back to this place as tWo

[Indeed]

He's defending the trade at this point.

It will look even worse on Masai's Poeltl mistake if and when we convey the 7th (we finish 6th but someone bumps us). Not sure why he's risking his entire reputation by tanking this hard with only ~50% chance of keeping this 2024 FRP.

Depends if we get back some fortunes from Poeltl.

As for tanking, I don't think it is intentional like people said. I think the roster is much worse than the FO thought, that may even started from Nurse with the departure of Lowry.

[DelAbbot]

He's defending the trade at this point.

It will look even worse on Masai's Poeltl mistake if and when we convey the 7th (we finish 6th but someone bumps us). Not sure why he's risking his entire reputation by tanking this hard with only ~50% chance of keeping this 2024 FRP.

Depends if we get back some fortunes from Poeltl.

As for tanking, I don't think it is intentional like people said. I think the roster is much worse than the FO thought, that may even started from Nurse with the departure of Lowry.

Let's say we got $1.50 for the $1.0 that is OG, and then account for the $0.50 (present value) on $1 for other trades or $0 return for left as FA - how is it possible that posters can think this roster can next year be at the same level as 2022/2023? Even if you extrapolate some organic growth from the young players, we will miss the play-in next year, especially with the downgrade from Nurse->Darko being at 3-5 wins.

[Tha Cynic]

If this team does make the play-in next season, would it have been better to give up a pick this year in the top 10 or better to keep this year's pick and draft in the mid first rounds next season? Or is it a wash?

[JB7]

If we can tank next year for a top 5 and then push to win the following year, I could live with that. But if we make win now moves this off season, I'm entirely done with the FO. This team just lacks high end talent, and the upcoming draft does not look like even a 1st OA would solve that issue.

Might be really hard with Scottie/IQ/Barrett on the roster. Portland and Washington will be deep in the tank to begin the season. I also suspect Ainge will trade Laurie and also begin his tank next season.

Then you have the Spurs, Charlotte and Detroit who will go into the season with worse rosters and the off-season could also put Brooklyn, Atlanta and Chicago in this group depending on what they do. So 6 potential teams to “compete” with for the final 2 spots. Barring another injury riddled season, it will be very hard for us to out tank all these guys with our roster as it stands.

I suspect this is why they’ve prioritized keeping the pick this year.

It wouldn't be a walk in the park for sure, but the Spurs will definitely not be that bad, CHA should be inching upwards with Miller playing well, and Lamelo being healthy for once in his life, DET is a weird one. The nets dont have their picks until 2028, so no incentive there, ATL seems to play better w/o trae, so who knows maybe they trade him and come back better, Chicago is an unknown, but probably not competing.

I think it can be done, this team has zero bench, and this off season isn't changing that. Jak isn't some ironman, he misses 10-20 games a season, throw in some random injuries to the rest of the core, and you aren't looking so solid. RJ misses about 10 a season, IQ looks to be 10-15 as well. Stretch out some missed games a couple longer and there you are.

This is just like the past Raps teams, starting 5 is solid, no bench to speak of. Any prolonged injuries and you lose a bunch of games, or you lose a bunch of close ones cause the starting 5 is gassed.

I think the path to the Raps rising in the standings is so much easier in the East. This year, because of trades and other unfortunate circumstances, plus clear tanking at the back end, is the reason they have the record they have for this season.

But next season, with a core of Barnes (22), RJ (23), IQ (24), Yak (28), Dick (20) and Olynyk (32), there is a lot of room for growth and development.

In terms of the teams out of the playoffs:
- Wiz are just tanking hard all next season
- Pistons, despite their better efforts this season, have continued to suck. They need a roster shake up, and that would put them a step back most likely.
- Hornets: potential room for growth, but that all rests on the health of LaMelo's ankles, which have not held up the last two years
- Nets: tried to win this year and still sucked. Unless a star player drops in their laps (which they are waiting for with the Suns picks), they are going to continue to suck, as their core is primary players that are 27 or older.
- Hawks: probably trading one of Trae or DM this summer, and I doubt they get back any players that could help them more in the short term than what is going out
- Bulls: could lose DD to FA, and are just waiting to blow it up and tank, even though that is not what ownership wants. No decent FA is signing there, and they are stuck with LaVine's contract.

In terms of the playoff teams:
- Heat: can't push more in the season because Jimmy is pacing himself to be ready for the playoffs
- Sixers: will they get a decent FA, because without Embiid, the team is horrible and he is hurt for a minimum third of the season
- Pacers: have room to grow with their young players and Hali
- Cavs: Could they lose Mitchell this offseason, and can what they get back actually improve the team?
- Magic: room for growth, but there is also the potential for a drop back in the standings after such a rise this season (as teams figure out better how to exploit their weaknesses)
- Knicks: room for growth, but that growth depends on the health of OG
- Bucks: just aging, and who knows if Giannis demands a trade if the Bucks **** the bed in of the playoffs
- Celtics: are championship or bust. If they don't win the chip, do they consider trading Brown? For a team that relies so heavily on 6 core players, Horford will be 38 next season, Holiday could be a FA this offseason, and can KP remain healthy?

All I see across the East is a lot of downward potential for most teams. If the Raps have a healthy team, and Darko figures things out, they could be in for a big rebound next season.

[Drakeem]

You would think the play in against the Bulls was three years ago by the vibe around the team. It's been half a season of focused tanking and people are done or losing interest.

So the scenario of getting a strong player this year and going for it next year with roster stability and another year under Darko's belt makes sense. BBQ plus Poeltl/Dick, two lottery picks, and whoever else they add is a decent base. The team likely competes for the play in and ideally the pick is 10 to 16.

It's not an amazing base of talent and could be stronger if they'd made less short sighted decisions in 2022/23, but it's enough that it makes sense to go for the pick now and keep the losing confined to one season. Going into Larry T's last year coming out of a tank is a bad idea as well.

And this is the reason why teams very very rarely want to go into a tanking situation from a financial/interest stand point. I'd say if you're on RealGM, your interest in the team/sport is probably higher than the average joe. If people here are tired of half a season of tanking, that means the regular person's interest is even lower in the team. Not good for the bottom dollar.

[DelAbbot]

You would think the play in against the Bulls was three years ago by the vibe around the team. It's been half a season of focused tanking and people are done or losing interest.

So the scenario of getting a strong player this year and going for it next year with roster stability and another year under Darko's belt makes sense. BBQ plus Poeltl/Dick, two lottery picks, and whoever else they add is a decent base. The team likely competes for the play in and ideally the pick is 10 to 16.

It's not an amazing base of talent and could be stronger if they'd made less short sighted decisions in 2022/23, but it's enough that it makes sense to go for the pick now and keep the losing confined to one season. Going into Larry T's last year coming out of a tank is a bad idea as well.

And this is the reason why teams very very rarely want to go into a tanking situation from a financial/interest stand point. I'd say if you're on RealGM, your interest in the team/sport is probably higher than the average joe. If people here are tired of half a season of tanking, that means the regular person's interest is even lower in the team. Not good for the bottom dollar.

Not according to someone who went to the yesterday's game

was actually a pretty full and lively crowd given the circumstances, and they was giving out bags of blue only (?) sour patch kids

[Drakeem]

You would think the play in against the Bulls was three years ago by the vibe around the team. It's been half a season of focused tanking and people are done or losing interest.

So the scenario of getting a strong player this year and going for it next year with roster stability and another year under Darko's belt makes sense. BBQ plus Poeltl/Dick, two lottery picks, and whoever else they add is a decent base. The team likely competes for the play in and ideally the pick is 10 to 16.

It's not an amazing base of talent and could be stronger if they'd made less short sighted decisions in 2022/23, but it's enough that it makes sense to go for the pick now and keep the losing confined to one season. Going into Larry T's last year coming out of a tank is a bad idea as well.

And this is the reason why teams very very rarely want to go into a tanking situation from a financial/interest stand point. I'd say if you're on RealGM, your interest in the team/sport is probably higher than the average joe. If people here are tired of half a season of tanking, that means the regular person's interest is even lower in the team. Not good for the bottom dollar.

Not according to someone who went to the yesterday's game

was actually a pretty full and lively crowd given the circumstances, and they was giving out bags of blue only (?) sour patch kids

In person will always be solid bc Toronto generally brings good attendance for their sports teams. I can't imagine their ratings + overall merch sales are doing too hot right now though.

[DelAbbot]

If this team does make the play-in next season, would it have been better to give up a pick this year in the top 10 or better to keep this year's pick and draft in the mid first rounds next season? Or is it a wash?

My question is: will this core SB+RJ+IQ be making the play-in next season organically (from their own growth) or will the FO be motivated to sell future assets for a short term push (trade for vest) to make the play-in next season because of need to convey 2025 FRP to the Spurs after we kept the 2024 FRP?

[OakleyDokely]

The Raptors are at a point where almost all their tickets are sold before the season, at least the big dollar seats. Basically, you just need a little hype going into the season in order to sell most of the tickets. Its also become a place to be seen so the game becomes secondary for a lot of people. The bigger concern is probably the TV numbers which have likely dropped off a cliff.

[Indeed]

If this team does make the play-in next season, would it have been better to give up a pick this year in the top 10 or better to keep this year's pick and draft in the mid first rounds next season? Or is it a wash?

If we straightly measure just the pick, a top 8 pick this year is better than a non lottery pick in next year, I suppose.
However, is it better to not have a pick next year is another question, as it will not allow us to trade the pick for better record.

[islandboy53]

If this team does make the play-in next season, would it have been better to give up a pick this year in the top 10 or better to keep this year's pick and draft in the mid first rounds next season? Or is it a wash?

My question is: will this core SB+RJ+IQ be making the play-in next season organically (from their own growth) or will the FO be motivated to sell future assets for a short term push (trade for vest) to make the play-in next season because of need to convey 2025 FRP to the Spurs after we kept the 2024 FRP?

The current group - Barnes, Barrett, Quickly, Dick, Poeltl, Olynyk, Agbaji - supplemented by 2 rookies, a FA signing, the return for Brown, and possibly a returning Trent is quite capable of winning the 38 to 40 games typically needed to make the play in in the east, whether we keep the pick this year or not. We will be looking to accumulate assets.

If we keep the pick this year, we are likely to trade one (Detroit?) for other assets. The Spurs will be welcome to our 25 pick.

[Tha Cynic]

If this team does make the play-in next season, would it have been better to give up a pick this year in the top 10 or better to keep this year's pick and draft in the mid first rounds next season? Or is it a wash?

My question is: will this core SB+RJ+IQ be making the play-in next season organically (from their own growth) or will the FO be motivated to sell future assets for a short term push (trade for vest) to make the play-in next season because of need to convey 2025 FRP to the Spurs after we kept the 2024 FRP?

Maybe, but they just have to be better than 5 of Chicago, Detroit, Washington, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Atlanta. I think this team has more talent than all of them (except maybe Atlanta) and better room for growth.

If this team does make the play-in next season, would it have been better to give up a pick this year in the top 10 or better to keep this year's pick and draft in the mid first rounds next season? Or is it a wash?

If we straightly measure just the pick, a top 8 pick this year is better than a non lottery pick in next year, I suppose.
However, is it better to not have a pick next year is another question, as it will not allow us to trade the pick for better record.

Yeah this is where I would rather keep this year's pick and hope we're at minimum a play-in team next season with young players actually taking a step. This is how the Raptors increased the value of all their players in the past and traded for Gasol, Green and Leonard. I prefer the drafting well and developing while increasing player value, over hoping we get lucky by sucking every year and hoping for the best. I think this is probably the route the front office is trying to go.

[ArthurVandelay]

If this team does make the play-in next season, would it have been better to give up a pick this year in the top 10 or better to keep this year's pick and draft in the mid first rounds next season? Or is it a wash?

My question is: will this core SB+RJ+IQ be making the play-in next season organically (from their own growth) or will the FO be motivated to sell future assets for a short term push (trade for vest) to make the play-in next season because of need to convey 2025 FRP to the Spurs after we kept the 2024 FRP?

Maybe, but they just have to be better than 5 of Chicago, Detroit, Washington, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Atlanta. I think this team has more talent than all of them (except maybe Atlanta) and better room for growth.

If this team does make the play-in next season, would it have been better to give up a pick this year in the top 10 or better to keep this year's pick and draft in the mid first rounds next season? Or is it a wash?

If we straightly measure just the pick, a top 8 pick this year is better than a non lottery pick in next year, I suppose.
However, is it better to not have a pick next year is another question, as it will not allow us to trade the pick for better record.

Yeah this is where I would rather keep this year's pick and hope we're at minimum a play-in team next season with young players actually taking a step. This is how the Raptors increased the value of all their players in the past and traded for Gasol, Green and Leonard. I prefer the drafting well and developing while increasing player value, over hoping we get lucky by sucking every year and hoping for the best. I think this is probably the route the front office is trying to go.

Ibaka too

[Indeed]

If this team does make the play-in next season, would it have been better to give up a pick this year in the top 10 or better to keep this year's pick and draft in the mid first rounds next season? Or is it a wash?

If we straightly measure just the pick, a top 8 pick this year is better than a non lottery pick in next year, I suppose.
However, is it better to not have a pick next year is another question, as it will not allow us to trade the pick for better record.

Yeah this is where I would rather keep this year's pick and hope we're at minimum a play-in team next season with young players actually taking a step. This is how the Raptors increased the value of all their players in the past and traded for Gasol, Green and Leonard. I prefer the drafting well and developing while increasing player value, over hoping we get lucky by sucking every year and hoping for the best. I think this is probably the route the front office is trying to go.

The problem is that we are at best a play-in with Siakam creating isolation to win games. However, we just don't have someone at that level to be a play-in team, as I don't feel comfortable that we can close out games.

I think we will be similar to the Orlando Magic drafting Suggs, and we still need a very good player for making the playoffs.