Why Do We Want To Keep The Pick This Year?

[WaltFrazier]

Agree. Next year will be Barnes 4th season, IQ's 5th season and RJ's 6th season. They (BBQ) are young but have enough experience to be performing like seasoned veterans capable, we hope, to be playoff bound next year.

If it doesn't convey until 2027 as two 2nd rounders, that means we were bottom 6 in 2024, 2025 & 2026. If we're this bad for 3 straight seasons, it means BBQ core will have failed, Masai likely fired and your "dream come true" will become a nightmare.

The way I see it, we are tanking hard now to try and keep our 2024 pick because we expect BBQ to propel us to the playoffs next season & improve from there. That has to be the goal. Being basement dwellers for 3 seasons is not a viable option for this FO.

In complete agreement, but I would take it a step further and say it's not just the FO or even the ownership, it's the league as a whole. That kind of tanking - if purposeful - just can't be done in this league post Process Sixers; 2 years is all you get.

Our most recent case study is Prestie who got 2 years to tank with a potential number 1 on his team in SGA. Similarly, the Magic were out of the tank after 2 years. The Spurs will also shift direction after the 2nd year of their tank. Even Ainge hasn't bottomed out in Utah. The process Sixers tank job is just not allowed in this league anymore.

Teams that have been perpetually bad and often in the top of the lottery (Detroit, Houston, Charlotte) get there despite their efforts to win and compete. So yeah, if we hold on to our pick for the next 3 years, it means either a massive injury has derailed the team and/or Barnes/IQ/Barrett/Dick were complete let downs. I don't see any world where this is a dream come true, even for the most hardcore tanker out there. And if someone thinks this is the more realistic possibility for this team, they should be advocating a complete tear down now while these guys have value.

If we can tank next year for a top 5 and then push to win the following year, I could live with that. But if we make win now moves this off season, I'm entirely done with the FO. This team just lacks high end talent, and the upcoming draft does not look like even a 1st OA would solve that issue.

The question is can Barnes RJ and IQ live with that? Those 3 plus Jak, Gradey and Gary or whoever are too good to tank. If healthy they'll be borderline play-in team.

[Anticon]

You would think the play in against the Bulls was three years ago by the vibe around the team. It's been half a season of focused tanking and people are done or losing interest.

So the scenario of getting a strong player this year and going for it next year with roster stability and another year under Darko's belt makes sense. BBQ plus Poeltl/Dick, two lottery picks, and whoever else they add is a decent base. The team likely competes for the play in and ideally the pick is 10 to 16.

It's not an amazing base of talent and could be stronger if they'd made less short sighted decisions in 2022/23, but it's enough that it makes sense to go for the pick now and keep the losing confined to one season. Going into Larry T's last year coming out of a tank is a bad idea as well.

[maternal85]

This is pretty much my thought as well - that the optics would look bad for the FO if they gave up a high pick for a player that wasn't nearly as impactful as they anticipated. Thus the FO would rather keep the pick this year.

My guess is Masai/Bobby probably won't be canned even if we gave up the 7th pick, but MLSE may just not renew their contract(s) when they're up depending on how these high picks look next season.

I still can't fathom how we didn't have better pick protection for an expiring Jakob, crazy.

Y’all are hilarious thinking MLSE’s board cares about a 2024 draft pick especially when there is no clear hyped prospect projected in our slot. They only care about money, so unless the Raptors revenue drops significantly, Masai is safe (and probably Bobby too). Oh, rumors are Raptors are rebranding this off-season, so more money for MLSE is on its way.

Bobby and Masai will be fired if this continues for 1-2 more seasons.

Then you hire who. ??

[DelAbbot]

In complete agreement, but I would take it a step further and say it's not just the FO or even the ownership, it's the league as a whole. That kind of tanking - if purposeful - just can't be done in this league post Process Sixers; 2 years is all you get.

Our most recent case study is Prestie who got 2 years to tank with a potential number 1 on his team in SGA. Similarly, the Magic were out of the tank after 2 years. The Spurs will also shift direction after the 2nd year of their tank. Even Ainge hasn't bottomed out in Utah. The process Sixers tank job is just not allowed in this league anymore.

Teams that have been perpetually bad and often in the top of the lottery (Detroit, Houston, Charlotte) get there despite their efforts to win and compete. So yeah, if we hold on to our pick for the next 3 years, it means either a massive injury has derailed the team and/or Barnes/IQ/Barrett/Dick were complete let downs. I don't see any world where this is a dream come true, even for the most hardcore tanker out there. And if someone thinks this is the more realistic possibility for this team, they should be advocating a complete tear down now while these guys have value.

If we can tank next year for a top 5 and then push to win the following year, I could live with that. But if we make win now moves this off season, I'm entirely done with the FO. This team just lacks high end talent, and the upcoming draft does not look like even a 1st OA would solve that issue.

The question is can Barnes RJ and IQ live with that? Those 3 plus Jak, Gradey and Gary or whoever are too good to tank. If healthy they'll be borderline play-in team.

Not with Darko at the helm

[DelAbbot]

Presti's approach can only work with ownership approval. That approval will not be provided in Toronto. There's too much money to be made and the team is not owned by a wealthy individual.

The approval has been provided for the Leafs (Austin Matthews) so why not for the Raptors? Leafs can stay sub 50% winning for decades and still out earn the Raptors.

Make too much money? Say we matched HOU for FVV at 40M+ and kept Poeltl and PS + OG, going into the luxury tax, and eventually this core just plays like they did against Diar Derozan for a few seasons, would this still be a profitable team?

[DelAbbot]

Y’all are hilarious thinking MLSE’s board cares about a 2024 draft pick especially when there is no clear hyped prospect projected in our slot. They only care about money, so unless the Raptors revenue drops significantly, Masai is safe (and probably Bobby too). Oh, rumors are Raptors are rebranding this off-season, so more money for MLSE is on its way.

Bobby and Masai will be fired if this continues for 1-2 more seasons.

All of this tanking could have been hailed as brilliant had they started in summer 2022. Now they are getting blamed for the team tanking possibly losing the pick.

[anotherhomer]

Y’all are hilarious thinking MLSE’s board cares about a 2024 draft pick especially when there is no clear hyped prospect projected in our slot. They only care about money, so unless the Raptors revenue drops significantly, Masai is safe (and probably Bobby too). Oh, rumors are Raptors are rebranding this off-season, so more money for MLSE is on its way.

Bobby and Masai will be fired if this continues for 1-2 more seasons.

All of this tanking could have been hailed as brilliant had they started in summer 2022. Now they are getting blamed for the team tanking possibly losing the pick.

the time to pivot to tank was winter 2022.....everyone knew that
trade pascal, FVV, and you pivoted nicely

[Scase]

In complete agreement, but I would take it a step further and say it's not just the FO or even the ownership, it's the league as a whole. That kind of tanking - if purposeful - just can't be done in this league post Process Sixers; 2 years is all you get.

Our most recent case study is Prestie who got 2 years to tank with a potential number 1 on his team in SGA. Similarly, the Magic were out of the tank after 2 years. The Spurs will also shift direction after the 2nd year of their tank. Even Ainge hasn't bottomed out in Utah. The process Sixers tank job is just not allowed in this league anymore.

Teams that have been perpetually bad and often in the top of the lottery (Detroit, Houston, Charlotte) get there despite their efforts to win and compete. So yeah, if we hold on to our pick for the next 3 years, it means either a massive injury has derailed the team and/or Barnes/IQ/Barrett/Dick were complete let downs. I don't see any world where this is a dream come true, even for the most hardcore tanker out there. And if someone thinks this is the more realistic possibility for this team, they should be advocating a complete tear down now while these guys have value.

If we can tank next year for a top 5 and then push to win the following year, I could live with that. But if we make win now moves this off season, I'm entirely done with the FO. This team just lacks high end talent, and the upcoming draft does not look like even a 1st OA would solve that issue.

Might be really hard with Scottie/IQ/Barrett on the roster. Portland and Washington will be deep in the tank to begin the season. I also suspect Ainge will trade Laurie and also begin his tank next season.

Then you have the Spurs, Charlotte and Detroit who will go into the season with worse rosters and the off-season could also put Brooklyn, Atlanta and Chicago in this group depending on what they do. So 6 potential teams to “compete” with for the final 2 spots. Barring another injury riddled season, it will be very hard for us to out tank all these guys with our roster as it stands.

I suspect this is why they’ve prioritized keeping the pick this year.

It wouldn't be a walk in the park for sure, but the Spurs will definitely not be that bad, CHA should be inching upwards with Miller playing well, and Lamelo being healthy for once in his life, DET is a weird one. The nets dont have their picks until 2028, so no incentive there, ATL seems to play better w/o trae, so who knows maybe they trade him and come back better, Chicago is an unknown, but probably not competing.

I think it can be done, this team has zero bench, and this off season isn't changing that. Jak isn't some ironman, he misses 10-20 games a season, throw in some random injuries to the rest of the core, and you aren't looking so solid. RJ misses about 10 a season, IQ looks to be 10-15 as well. Stretch out some missed games a couple longer and there you are.

This is just like the past Raps teams, starting 5 is solid, no bench to speak of. Any prolonged injuries and you lose a bunch of games, or you lose a bunch of close ones cause the starting 5 is gassed.

[DelAbbot]

Bobby and Masai will be fired if this continues for 1-2 more seasons.

All of this tanking could have been hailed as brilliant had they started in summer 2022. Now they are getting blamed for the team tanking possibly losing the pick.

the time to pivot to tank was winter 2022.....everyone knew that
trade pascal, FVV, and you pivoted nicely

yeah that's true, I was referring to how in summer 2022 Pascal and FVV both rejected extensions which was the snowball that rolled to today

[anotherhomer]

All of this tanking could have been hailed as brilliant had they started in summer 2022. Now they are getting blamed for the team tanking possibly losing the pick.

the time to pivot to tank was winter 2022.....everyone knew that
trade pascal, FVV, and you pivoted nicely

yeah that's true, I was referring to how in summer 2022 Pascal and FVV both rejected extensions which was the snowball that rolled to today

That's true....
When things fall apart, raps should had traded them quickly

[bballsparkin]

Presti's approach can only work with ownership approval. That approval will not be provided in Toronto. There's too much money to be made and the team is not owned by a wealthy individual.

The approval has been provided for the Leafs (Austin Matthews) so why not for the Raptors? Leafs can stay sub 50% winning for decades and still out earn the Raptors.

Make too much money? Say we matched HOU for FVV at 40M+ and kept Poeltl and PS + OG, going into the luxury tax, and eventually this core just plays like they did against Diar Derozan for a few seasons, would this still be a profitable team?

I remember reading once "that the Maple Leafs could add razor blades to candy apples during Halloween and still sell out". Not sure they are similar comparisons. Also, Connor McDavid was up for grabs followed by Mathews the following year. Plus with Shanahan brought in everything was new and shiny. Bottoming out in hockey is not quiet as ugly as in basketball either.

You answered your own question: going into the luxury tax for that team is not worth it. They have Barnes now. And traded for IQ and RJ. They are not planning to bottom out intentionally imho.

[islandboy53]

Y’all are hilarious thinking MLSE’s board cares about a 2024 draft pick especially when there is no clear hyped prospect projected in our slot. They only care about money, so unless the Raptors revenue drops significantly, Masai is safe (and probably Bobby too). Oh, rumors are Raptors are rebranding this off-season, so more money for MLSE is on its way.

Bobby and Masai will be fired if this continues for 1-2 more seasons.

All of this tanking could have been hailed as brilliant had they started in summer 2022. Now they are getting blamed for the team tanking possibly losing the pick.

By who, though? I mean, anyone important?

[DelAbbot]

Presti's approach can only work with ownership approval. That approval will not be provided in Toronto. There's too much money to be made and the team is not owned by a wealthy individual.

The approval has been provided for the Leafs (Austin Matthews) so why not for the Raptors? Leafs can stay sub 50% winning for decades and still out earn the Raptors.

Make too much money? Say we matched HOU for FVV at 40M+ and kept Poeltl and PS + OG, going into the luxury tax, and eventually this core just plays like they did against Diar Derozan for a few seasons, would this still be a profitable team?

I remember reading once "that the Maple Leafs could add razor blades to candy apples during Halloween and still sell out". Not sure they are similar comparisons. Also, Connor McDavid was up for grabs followed by Mathews the following year. Plus with Shanahan brought in everything was new and shiny. Bottoming out in hockey is not quiet as ugly as in basketball either.

You answered your own question: going into the luxury tax for that team is not worth it. They have Barnes now. And traded for IQ and RJ. They are not planning to bottom out intentionally imho.

SB + IQ + RJ might just hoover around 40-50% or underperform that because of Darko, or there is an injury - then we can do a tactical tank in Jan-April 2025 and get a top 10 pick in 2025 draft. For that to be possible, we need to convey 2024 FRP to spurs

[DelAbbot]

Bobby and Masai will be fired if this continues for 1-2 more seasons.

All of this tanking could have been hailed as brilliant had they started in summer 2022. Now they are getting blamed for the team tanking possibly losing the pick.

By who, though? I mean, anyone important?

me

[bballsparkin]

SB + IQ + RJ might just hoover around 40-50% or underperform that because of Darko, or there is an injury - then we can do a tactical tank in Jan-April 2025 and get a top 10 pick in 2025 draft. For that to be possible, we need to convey 2024 FRP to spurs

Good luck with the coin flip Del! You seem heavily invested in this. I'ma wait and see what happens.

[islandboy53]

All of this tanking could have been hailed as brilliant had they started in summer 2022. Now they are getting blamed for the team tanking possibly losing the pick.

By who, though? I mean, anyone important?

me

Sure, but anyone who’s important beyond in their own mind?

[DelAbbot]

SB + IQ + RJ might just hoover around 40-50% or underperform that because of Darko, or there is an injury - then we can do a tactical tank in Jan-April 2025 and get a top 10 pick in 2025 draft. For that to be possible, we need to convey 2024 FRP to spurs

Good luck with the coin flip Del! You seem heavily invested in this. I'ma wait and see what happens.

I'm motivated by the fact that current "retool" is reminiscent of the 2021/2022 team, which we eventually found out is not good enough, but led Masai to push his chips in too early (Thad and Poeltl trades). To avoid that scenario happening again, it's best to let 2024/2025 play out as a rebuild season (much like this season post PS trade), and that likely results in a top 10 pick in 2025 draft.

[bballsparkin]

I'm motivated by the fact that current "retool" is reminiscent of the 2021/2022 team, which we eventually found out is not good enough, but led Masai to push his chips in too early (Thad and Poeltl trades). To avoid that scenario happening again, it's best to let 2024/2025 play out as a rebuild season (much like this season post PS trade), and that likely results in a top 10 pick in 2025 draft.

That's the upside should the pick convey. I'm greedy though I want the top 4 pick now. And should they flounder next season they better make moves to position to keep the pick or perhaps the proverbial "heads shall roll!" may actually be true.

[dohboy_24]

Sorry, I don't see we are in the #15 to #18 range. We are more in the #7 to #13 range. Therefore the scenarios are:

If we miss the play-in tournament and are in the lottery, our pick in the 2025 draft could be somewhere between #7 and #14, but if we make the play-in tournament as one of the #7 to #10 seeds that pick could end up somewhere between #15 and #18 instead.

SCENARIO #1: Keep on of the top 6 picks in the 2024 draft. Convey the #10 pick in the 2025 draft
SCENARIO #2: Convey the #7 or #8 pick in the 2024 draft. Keep the pick in the 2025 draft, which allows you to 1) trade future pick 2) have another change to get a higher pick (serious in tanking).

Yes, if we convey the pick this draft that would allow us the flexibility to trade a future pick anytime this season but the same can be said of the 2025 draft and off-season should we not convey our pick until then.

Obviously, scenario #2 is better from many perspective, because you got control of your pick and you can make a decision tank harder or trade future pick. Way more flexible.

During the past 23 seasons, our winning percentage was less than 40% in 2005-06 (32.9%), 2011-12 (34.8%), and 2021-22 (37.5%) and only dipped below 30% in 2002-03 (29.3%) and 2010-11 (26.8%). The rest of the time our record saw us win just over 40% of our games to end up with a 41.5% win percentage in 2012-13 and 40.2% win percentage in 2003-04, 2004-05, and 2008-09.

During the past 23 seasons, we've only tanked harder than we have this year two other times - during the 2002-03 and 2010-11 seasons. During the past 23 seasons, how many times have we traded our first round draft pick before the draft?

While the scenarios you proposed are possible and would give the team more flexibility in theory, they aren't very probable and are unlikely to affect the decisions the FO makes moving forward.

[Johnny Bball]

Y’all are hilarious thinking MLSE’s board cares about a 2024 draft pick especially when there is no clear hyped prospect projected in our slot. They only care about money, so unless the Raptors revenue drops significantly, Masai is safe (and probably Bobby too). Oh, rumors are Raptors are rebranding this off-season, so more money for MLSE is on its way.

Bobby and Masai will be fired if this continues for 1-2 more seasons.

All of this tanking could have been hailed as brilliant had they started in summer 2022. Now they are getting blamed for the team tanking possibly losing the pick.

Lmao. Now I see why you blame them in every post, its to try and prove yourself right. How very weak.

They aren't getting fired. This is so stupid.