JB7 wrote:mtcan wrote:dohboy_24 wrote:
For the future development, growth and potential of this team, the best case scenario is to retain our top 6 pick this year and next year to deal conveying the pick to the Spurs until 2026.
Ideally, we'd even retain the pick in 2026 so it's only 2 second rounders we have to convey, but I don't think that's going to be likely after adding 3 draft picks this year and another in 2025, especially if two of them are among the top 6 selections and the FO does a good job drafting the right players, making trades, and/or adding free agents to the squad.
After the 2025 draft, we'd have to re-sign Scottie to an extension and pick up the team options for Ochai and Gradey to start the 2025-26 season with the following players under contract:
G - IQ, Dick, Ochai
F - Scottie, RJ
C - Jakob, KO
2024 draft: Top 6 pick, #18, #31
2025 draft: Top 6 pick
That's 11 players in total, leaving 4 spots open on the active roster and another 3 spots available for two-way contracts.
Payroll: Dick ($5m), Ochai ($6m), Jakob ($19.5m), RJ ($27.7), KO ($12m), IQ ($25m), Top 6 pick in 2024 ($7m), #18 pick in 2024 ($3m), #31 pick in 2024 ($2m), Top 6 pick in 2025 ($8m) = $115m total salary
Assuming the salary cap in 2025-26 is $155m, we'd have enough cap space available ($40m) to offer a max contract to a single player or could split it up among multiple players to fill the remaining gaps in the lineup with players who can compliment a core of IQ, Dick, Scottie, RJ, Jakob/KO, and the draft picks we can hopefully add through the next two drafts in a best case scenario that positions us to win 50%+ of our games for multiple seasons, place among the top 4 teams in the East, and hopefully make some deep runs in the playoffs that end up with us playing in the Conference Finals and Finals again.
I don't disagree that tanking next season would be the best way to go...but I just don't think the team is bad enough. And RJ, Quick and Scottie are good enough such that we won't be top 4 bad...and that's really where we would need to land in order to get a Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey.
I wouldn't be mad if we tank next season but the complaining around here will be insufferable and it will be a difficult season to endure.
I believe that the front office purposely wanted NBA-tested guys like RJ and Quick along with Kelly because they believe that we are closer to the play-in than we are a top 4 pick. They clearly want to turn the ship around sooner rather than later. I can't argue with that either especially if we are a fringe playoff team next year while being able to draft a player hopefully in the top 6 this summer.
Next year, the tanking teams could be truly awful. Wiz, Blazers and Pistons will all probably be tanking hard, and possibly even Utah and Charlotte, with actual talent at the top end of the draft. These teams won 14-21 games in a year with a historically weak draft.
The only way Raps bottom out that bad is if BBQ all go down with season ending injuries.
Pistons can't afford to tank, they have tons of cap space and need to start winning. Either that or they trade everyone and try for tanking round 2 electric boogaloo. But I don't see that happening as they are looking to hire a new prez of bball ops.
Definitely Wiz. Blazers are a bit weird, if Simmons/Sharpe take a solid step as would be expected, and if Scoot and Ayton continue how they ended last season, they might not be bad enough to be truly awful. Utah has been unable to really bottom out the entire time they have been tanking, so no real concern there. CHA is another weird one, with Miller, and if Lamelo can be healthy, they will definitely not be as bad.
I can see the blazers and hornets eeking out maybe 5-7 more wins putting them around 26-28, Spurs are definitely gonna be better, Utah likely is 30+, Wiz will be sub 20 for sure. So that would mean you could potentially get bottom 3 with the current 25 win total we ended with this year.
It is definitely doable. How likely, well, there's a lot of variables. But less than 30 wins could easily score you a bottom 5 finish.
. It's s not the team's job to entertain its fans.