Woj: Expect a lot of player movement this summer

[billy_hoyle]

I feel like OKC is going to slow roll their plan again and then everyone gets super expensive and they're going to get stuck again. In about 2 seasons, they're looking at Shai with a supermax, Chet at max, Williams at max before we even talk about guys like Dort, Giddey, Wallace. They need to be really aggressive now before everyone gets super expensive because once the core gets paid, they're going to have fill out the rest of the roster with cheaper, more limited depth players.

I think the slow roll IS the plan. They are going to sell off ancillary pieces (Giddey, Wallace etc) when they get expensive. Trade the for more picks.

They already have a mountain of picks. They should just keep that pick mountain trudging along. Acting now undermines their salary structure (kinda like adding Tavares to the Matthews, Marner, Nylander Leafs).

Wallace and Dieng might start contributing alot next year, and they have another lottery pick this year, and likely lottery pick next year. I'd stay patient.

[dagger]

Anyone who thinks trading for Wiggins is actually about Wiggins needs to actually follow how roster and cap management works.

You get some future assets (Moody, a first, whatever) - and then you have the ability to later parlay Wiggins + other salaries (GTJ maybe?) if you want to make a bigger splash down the road. You also cant ignore the possibility a move revitalizes Wiggins career - he is is overpaid but he is far from a bad player. A guy who is a solid defender who is shooting 38% from 3 the last 4 years.

IQ/RJ/Wiggins/Barnes/Poeltl is far from a bad lineup to have as we transition as a franchise.

Not to mention that eventually Wiggins is an expiring, and having a $24M expiring in the current NBA client where teams need to get off money could be extremely valuable to have.

All of this Wiggins stuff is off-the-charts unlikely. There is only so much dead money a team will take on to get a middling talent like Moody or another (likely to be lottery protected pick). Moody is extension eligible this summer, so add an MLE-type contract for him on top of the Wiggins money. That becomes enormously expensive for a bunch of bench guys.

The same pressures created by the new CBA ton tax teams also are formulating the thinking of currently non-tax teams. Every team looks at all of its downstream cost pressures - notably extensions or new contracts with their own players to be negotiated, future draft pick salaries, etc. The Raptors will be adding a new contract for IQ. They will have a couple of draft pick salaries to add, and one fairly significant one if they keep their own pick and even jump up in this draft.

For Toronto, the Wiggins thing sailed when GSW didn't become a Siakam bidder.

Not necessarily. The team will have enough room after RJ ($26M), Yak ($20M), IQ ($26-30M) and Scottie ($10M next season, probably followed by $36M the following) to absorb a contract like Wiggins ($26M), and still fill out the rest of the roster.

The choice on Wiggins, is whether there is a better trade candidate for Bruce Brown's contract that could become available next season, and whether the team wants to resign GTJ. If they are fine letting both Brown and GTJ walk this offseason, they could probably easily absorb Wiggins deal into that space (could tack on McDaniels' deal in the trade to free up $5M, and even Boucher's deal, almost $11M if it is required to make the trade work).

The good thing about Wiggins deal is it ends the same year as RJ, Yak and Gradey's deals. So when RJ and Gradey's deal need to be renegotiated, the team has just freed up space from Wiggins and Yak's expiring deals.

But that means then the core is probably set for the next 3 years: Barnes, RJ, IQ, Yak, Wiggins, Dick, plus whatever players they acquire through draft picks. And there are complimentary pieces like KO and OA.

The question on Wiggins is whether he is the best asset the Raps could acquire with that additional cap space room, as teams look to dump salaries with the new CBA restrictions kicking in.

Then Scottie jumps up, so don't go with $10m, but his max.

[JB7]

All of this Wiggins stuff is off-the-charts unlikely. There is only so much dead money a team will take on to get a middling talent like Moody or another (likely to be lottery protected pick). Moody is extension eligible this summer, so add an MLE-type contract for him on top of the Wiggins money. That becomes enormously expensive for a bunch of bench guys.

The same pressures created by the new CBA ton tax teams also are formulating the thinking of currently non-tax teams. Every team looks at all of its downstream cost pressures - notably extensions or new contracts with their own players to be negotiated, future draft pick salaries, etc. The Raptors will be adding a new contract for IQ. They will have a couple of draft pick salaries to add, and one fairly significant one if they keep their own pick and even jump up in this draft.

For Toronto, the Wiggins thing sailed when GSW didn't become a Siakam bidder.

Not necessarily. The team will have enough room after RJ ($26M), Yak ($20M), IQ ($26-30M) and Scottie ($10M next season, probably followed by $36M the following) to absorb a contract like Wiggins ($26M), and still fill out the rest of the roster.

The choice on Wiggins, is whether there is a better trade candidate for Bruce Brown's contract that could become available next season, and whether the team wants to resign GTJ. If they are fine letting both Brown and GTJ walk this offseason, they could probably easily absorb Wiggins deal into that space (could tack on McDaniels' deal in the trade to free up $5M, and even Boucher's deal, almost $11M if it is required to make the trade work).

The good thing about Wiggins deal is it ends the same year as RJ, Yak and Gradey's deals. So when RJ and Gradey's deal need to be renegotiated, the team has just freed up space from Wiggins and Yak's expiring deals.

But that means then the core is probably set for the next 3 years: Barnes, RJ, IQ, Yak, Wiggins, Dick, plus whatever players they acquire through draft picks. And there are complimentary pieces like KO and OA.

The question on Wiggins is whether he is the best asset the Raps could acquire with that additional cap space room, as teams look to dump salaries with the new CBA restrictions kicking in.

Then Scottie jumps up, so don't go with $10m, but his max.

Yes, that's why I included his max number. They would still have space in the following year, because that core and complementary pieces (Barnes, IQ Yak, Wiggins, Dick, KO & OA) would cost about $160M, and the luxury tax threshold that year is projected at $188M. So still room to add salaries for draft picks (this year and next) and some other low cost vets.

The key is Wiggins deal ends when RJ, Yak and Dick's deals end.

[OakleyDokely]

I feel like OKC is going to slow roll their plan again and then everyone gets super expensive and they're going to get stuck again. In about 2 seasons, they're looking at Shai with a supermax, Chet at max, Williams at max before we even talk about guys like Dort, Giddey, Wallace. They need to be really aggressive now before everyone gets super expensive because once the core gets paid, they're going to have fill out the rest of the roster with cheaper, more limited depth players.

I think the slow roll IS the plan. They are going to sell off ancillary pieces (Giddey, Wallace etc) when they get expensive. Trade the for more picks.

They already have a mountain of picks. They should just keep that pick mountain trudging along. Acting now undermines their salary structure (kinda like adding Tavares to the Matthews, Marner, Nylander Leafs).

Wallace and Dieng might start contributing alot next year, and they have another lottery pick this year, and likely lottery pick next year. I'd stay patient.

I think they should be really aggressive targeting players with 1-2 year commitments. Even this year, there weren't aggressive enough as a 1 seed. When you have a legit shot to make the finals, take that shot seriously. Major injuries happen, regressions happen, losing key depth happens, super teams form, you can't just bank on winning in the future because that future may never come.

[YogurtProducer]

I feel like OKC is going to slow roll their plan again and then everyone gets super expensive and they're going to get stuck again. In about 2 seasons, they're looking at Shai with a supermax, Chet at max, Williams at max before we even talk about guys like Dort, Giddey, Wallace. They need to be really aggressive now before everyone gets super expensive because once the core gets paid, they're going to have fill out the rest of the roster with cheaper, more limited depth players.

I think the slow roll IS the plan. They are going to sell off ancillary pieces (Giddey, Wallace etc) when they get expensive. Trade the for more picks.

They already have a mountain of picks. They should just keep that pick mountain trudging along. Acting now undermines their salary structure (kinda like adding Tavares to the Matthews, Marner, Nylander Leafs).

Wallace and Dieng might start contributing alot next year, and they have another lottery pick this year, and likely lottery pick next year. I'd stay patient.

I think they should be really aggressive targeting players with 1-2 year commitments. Even this year, there weren't aggressive enough as a 1 seed. When you have a legit shot to make the finals, take that shot seriously. Major injuries happen, regressions happen, losing key depth happens, super teams form, you can't just bank on winning in the future because that future may never come.

Yeah IMO they should have been aggressively trying to get Poeltl. 19.5M for 4 years and he fills a need? Would have made a ton of sense for them, especially since if they needed cap later he would be easily moveable for assets again. Instead they got Hayward to play 19 minutes and take 1 shot.

[Scase]

Outside of Toronto, I'm most intrigued by what OKC does this offseason -- Do they push some assets in and an all-star level player to add to the core of Holmgren, SGA, Jalen Williams. Or they keep the path, look for internal growth to create a "4th" to add to those 3, and not disrupt things.

They can probably get to up to $50M of cap space if they wanted, but assuming that type of player is not out there.

But with 10-12 future first available to trade, and some attractive pieces like Wallace, and decent cap filler in Dort, they can easily make a move for another really good core player.

I think that cap space is a trap, the amount of money they will have to shell out in the near future for Chet/SGA/Williams/Dort is gonna be a LOT, so unless they use that cap for short term deals, or players with not much term left on their contracts, I don't see what they can do.

That said, I am hoping JV continues to pop off in that series win or lose, cause it keeps showing how they dont have someone who can handle a strong C down low with Chet. Hopefully Masai can jump on that and try to steal some assets for Jak.

[billy_hoyle]

I feel like OKC is going to slow roll their plan again and then everyone gets super expensive and they're going to get stuck again. In about 2 seasons, they're looking at Shai with a supermax, Chet at max, Williams at max before we even talk about guys like Dort, Giddey, Wallace. They need to be really aggressive now before everyone gets super expensive because once the core gets paid, they're going to have fill out the rest of the roster with cheaper, more limited depth players.

I think the slow roll IS the plan. They are going to sell off ancillary pieces (Giddey, Wallace etc) when they get expensive. Trade the for more picks.

They already have a mountain of picks. They should just keep that pick mountain trudging along. Acting now undermines their salary structure (kinda like adding Tavares to the Matthews, Marner, Nylander Leafs).

Wallace and Dieng might start contributing alot next year, and they have another lottery pick this year, and likely lottery pick next year. I'd stay patient.

I think they should be really aggressive targeting players with 1-2 year commitments. Even this year, there weren't aggressive enough as a 1 seed. When you have a legit shot to make the finals, take that shot seriously. Major injuries happen, regressions happen, losing key depth happens, super teams form, you can't just bank on winning in the future because that future may never come.

I think they are being realistic. There's a near zero chance they make a dent in their first playoffs. They are a 1 seed in number only - do the Vegas odds even give them top 4 odds in their conference?

They would have needed to add a star player with playoff experience and contract control at a reasonable rate. Was that even available at the trade deadline?

I think seeing how they play in the playoffs makes sense.

They have a ton of cap space this summer. They should try and poach a star with that first before settling on trading draft assets.

Paul George is a Free Agent, and they did right by him before.... Stranger things have happened.

[OakleyDokely]

I think the slow roll IS the plan. They are going to sell off ancillary pieces (Giddey, Wallace etc) when they get expensive. Trade the for more picks.

They already have a mountain of picks. They should just keep that pick mountain trudging along. Acting now undermines their salary structure (kinda like adding Tavares to the Matthews, Marner, Nylander Leafs).

Wallace and Dieng might start contributing alot next year, and they have another lottery pick this year, and likely lottery pick next year. I'd stay patient.

I think they should be really aggressive targeting players with 1-2 year commitments. Even this year, there weren't aggressive enough as a 1 seed. When you have a legit shot to make the finals, take that shot seriously. Major injuries happen, regressions happen, losing key depth happens, super teams form, you can't just bank on winning in the future because that future may never come.

I think they are being realistic. There's a near zero chance they make a dent in their first playoffs. They are a 1 seed in number only - do the Vegas odds even give them top 4 odds in their conference?

They would have needed to add a star player with playoff experience and contract control at a reasonable rate. Was that even available at the trade deadline?

I think seeing how they play in the playoffs makes sense.

They have a ton of cap space this summer. They should try and poach a star with that first before settling on trading draft assets.

Paul George is a Free Agent, and they did right by him before.... Stranger things have happened.

They definitely aren't the favorite, but anytime you have a legit MVP candidate, you have a shot. They have so many projected late 1sts that trading 1 or 2 for some help wouldn't have mattered much for them in the long run.

[Pointgod]

What no one is thinking about with OKC is that they could easily trade their assets to either move up in the draft or trade for an impact guy on a rookie contract. So even when you have Chet, Shai and Williams on a max you could legitimately have an allstar or borderline all star on a rookie deal. That’s the beauty of having a ton of assets to trade. I do think Presti needs to stop the draft pick Ponzi scheme and start consolidating for impact.

[JB7]

What no one is thinking about with OKC is that they could easily trade their assets to either move up in the draft or trade for an impact guy on a rookie contract. So even when you have Chet, Shai and Williams on a max you could legitimately have an allstar or borderline all star on a rookie deal. That’s the beauty of having a ton of assets to trade. I do think Presti needs to stop the draft pick Ponzi scheme and start consolidating for impact.

Yes, that is the benefit to Presti's accumulation of picks. The downside is OKCs picks are worth less relative to another teams picks, because every other team knows Presti needs to either trade picks, or cut roster players. And it will only get worse in the coming years as more picks transfer to OKC.

[Vorticity]

I think they should be really aggressive targeting players with 1-2 year commitments. Even this year, there weren't aggressive enough as a 1 seed. When you have a legit shot to make the finals, take that shot seriously. Major injuries happen, regressions happen, losing key depth happens, super teams form, you can't just bank on winning in the future because that future may never come.

I think they are being realistic. There's a near zero chance they make a dent in their first playoffs. They are a 1 seed in number only - do the Vegas odds even give them top 4 odds in their conference?

They would have needed to add a star player with playoff experience and contract control at a reasonable rate. Was that even available at the trade deadline?

I think seeing how they play in the playoffs makes sense.

They have a ton of cap space this summer. They should try and poach a star with that first before settling on trading draft assets.

Paul George is a Free Agent, and they did right by him before.... Stranger things have happened.

They definitely aren't the favorite, but anytime you have a legit MVP candidate, you have a shot. They have so many projected late 1sts that trading 1 or 2 for some help wouldn't have mattered much for them in the long run.

isn't this similar (def not the same) to Ja and Memphis, last year? 2nd seed, young inexperienced team first round exit 2-4 to LAL?

[Ell Curry]

Something like Giddey, #12 and a future first for Avdija would make a lot of sense for OKC, and the Wizards are still in tank/asset accumulation mode. Avdija's deal goes down to 11M at the end, he fits what they like to do and improves their rebounding.

[YelloC]

I would like the Raps to after Naz Reidsince he is somewhat buried behind Rudy and KAT and would likely want to showcase himself in a starting role as he approaches his next contract.
Bruce Brown, Boucher a First and a pick swap could potentially get it done but at least we now have the pick flexibility to sweeten the pot in future trades that are close but need a bump to get over the line.

[Tripod]

I think the slow roll IS the plan. They are going to sell off ancillary pieces (Giddey, Wallace etc) when they get expensive. Trade the for more picks.

They already have a mountain of picks. They should just keep that pick mountain trudging along. Acting now undermines their salary structure (kinda like adding Tavares to the Matthews, Marner, Nylander Leafs).

Wallace and Dieng might start contributing alot next year, and they have another lottery pick this year, and likely lottery pick next year. I'd stay patient.

I think they should be really aggressive targeting players with 1-2 year commitments. Even this year, there weren't aggressive enough as a 1 seed. When you have a legit shot to make the finals, take that shot seriously. Major injuries happen, regressions happen, losing key depth happens, super teams form, you can't just bank on winning in the future because that future may never come.

Yeah IMO they should have been aggressively trying to get Poeltl. 19.5M for 4 years and he fills a need? Would have made a ton of sense for them, especially since if they needed cap later he would be easily moveable for assets again. Instead they got Hayward to play 19 minutes and take 1 shot.

They don't want a lane clogging C who can't shoot because so much of their offense is from getting into the lane fir easy buckets or kicking out to shooters. If they add a 20 million C, it will be one who can shoot from outside.

I mentioned WCJ as a fit.

They should have added more at the deadline because the future is never promised. Look at Philly with injuries. Denver lost a season with Murray hurt. Bucks this year with Giannis. When you have a great team AND unlimited assets, spend a few to help your chances.

[YogurtProducer]

I think they should be really aggressive targeting players with 1-2 year commitments. Even this year, there weren't aggressive enough as a 1 seed. When you have a legit shot to make the finals, take that shot seriously. Major injuries happen, regressions happen, losing key depth happens, super teams form, you can't just bank on winning in the future because that future may never come.

Yeah IMO they should have been aggressively trying to get Poeltl. 19.5M for 4 years and he fills a need? Would have made a ton of sense for them, especially since if they needed cap later he would be easily moveable for assets again. Instead they got Hayward to play 19 minutes and take 1 shot.

They don't want a lane clogging C who can't shoot because so much of their offense is from getting into the lane fir easy buckets or kicking out to shooters. If they add a 20 million C, it will be one who can shoot from outside.

I mentioned WCJ as a fit.

They should have added more at the deadline because the future is never promised. Look at Philly with injuries. Denver lost a season with Murray hurt. Bucks this year with Giannis. When you have a great team AND unlimited assets, spend a few to help your chances.

They can want shooters everywhere all they want - guys like JV already are feasting on them. When they play against a team with a big they cannot run off the floor they are screwed.

Every team wants a big that can shoot. Reality is you aren't getting one for less than 30M a year or without giving up a huge # of assets

[PoundTown]

If I’m OKC, I’m using a pick and giddy to land a Center not Advija. Basically, if I were them I’d be dangling giddy, dieng, picks for a big 3 and D wing and a good defensive, rebounding big giving them the flexibility of going small with Chet at 5 and big 3 and D wing at 4, or big with Center, Chet, j dub, shai and one of dort or Cason.

Their top 3 guys are probably going to be considered a big three as early as next year, if not the year after. Need to get the role players alongside those guys.

[MiamiSPX]

I would like the Raps to after Naz Reidsince he is somewhat buried behind Rudy and KAT and would likely want to showcase himself in a starting role as he approaches his next contract.
Bruce Brown, Boucher a First and a pick swap could potentially get it done but at least we now have the pick flexibility to sweeten the pot in future trades that are close but need a bump to get over the line.

Reid just won 6MOY, ix only 24, and is on arguably the best contract in the NBA. The Wolves likely won't trade him for anything, and will move KAT this summer.

[ArthurVandelay]

I would like the Raps to after Naz Reidsince he is somewhat buried behind Rudy and KAT and would likely want to showcase himself in a starting role as he approaches his next contract.
Bruce Brown, Boucher a First and a pick swap could potentially get it done but at least we now have the pick flexibility to sweeten the pot in future trades that are close but need a bump to get over the line.

Reid just won 6MOY, ix only 24, and is on arguably the best contract in the NBA. The Wolves likely won't trade him for anything, and will move KAT this summer.

Reid only has one year left on that deal. 2025-2026 is a player option which I'm sure he opts out.

You need to know Taylor owns the paper it was published in, but it was reported ARod and new ownership was planning to cut salary and trade KAT. That is part of the reason behind why Taylor halted the sale, apparently.

They are going to be another interesting team to watch.

[dTox]

I got excited reading seeing the Woj post, then the following posts about trading for Wiggins made me lose my boner. Thanks.

[MiamiSPX]

I would like the Raps to after Naz Reidsince he is somewhat buried behind Rudy and KAT and would likely want to showcase himself in a starting role as he approaches his next contract.
Bruce Brown, Boucher a First and a pick swap could potentially get it done but at least we now have the pick flexibility to sweeten the pot in future trades that are close but need a bump to get over the line.

Reid just won 6MOY, ix only 24, and is on arguably the best contract in the NBA. The Wolves likely won't trade him for anything, and will move KAT this summer.

Reid only has one year left on that deal. 2025-2026 is a player option which I'm sure he opts out.

You need to know Taylor owns the paper it was published in, but it was reported ARod and new ownership was planning to cut salary and trade KAT. That is part of the reason behind why Taylor halted the sale, apparently.

They are going to be another interesting team to watch.

I'm well aware of the battle going and IMO it's just Taylor trying to back out because of how much the team's valuation has soared.

I should have clarified that "if anything" they move KAT, and I think that because it's the logical move. They have a guy that's on the cusp of being a top 5 player, they have a guy who is about to win his 4th DPOY, they have the 6MOY on a bargain deal, and even the McDaniels contract is looking like it's going to be a great value deal. If they move anyone, it will be KAT, IMO, who has been constantly injured the last 5 years and is probably the guy they can most afford to lose.