Keith Smith: Raptors 2024 offseason analysis

[Jadoogar]

Wondering what can we get for Gary Trent jr’s sign and trade

not much i'm assuming. He's not a good enough player for a team to give up anything of value instead of just using cap

[Scase]

Bobby marks said theres 6 teams in the double apron and 10 teams in the first apron once the szn is over

The repeater tax and what these teams have that worth giving up are what's more important than the raw number of teams. I took a quick peek and saw teams like the C's, they could benefit from his expiry, but they don't fit as a trade partner for a few reasons.

I'm trying to think of realistic trade partners, and I'm not seeing too many tbh.

I'm assuming we're discussing Brown's deal?

If so, I've sort of reached the same conclusion as Scase. If we're going to use the Brown contract as way of bailing out other teams from the tax, that means we'll be taking on a significant amount of salary and I'm not sure that's best for us either. I guess it depends on the contract coming back and the asset attached to him but with the money being owed to Poeltl, Quickley's extension, Barnes extension, Barrett's money etc... we might be up against some issues ourselves.

This is what I'm struggling with as well. The only way it is beneficial for us, if we get some serious compensation to take on the returning salary. GSW makes sense theoretically, but is shedding a prospect and/or picks that could set back the inevitable rebuild by a couple years, worth the what 20-40mil they pay in repeater tax? Seems kinda short sighted for a team that was basically running a 400mil payroll, like does another 20-40mil even matter at that point?

My concern is our FO picks up Browns option to save face since the Siakam trade is already looking pretty bad, and letting him expire makes it look "worse". We are many years removed from the Masai who moved Bargs, or turned Vasquez into Norm, he hasn't really had any wins aside from the OG one recently, and that's suspect as well how much of that was him vs the OG/Knicks connection.

[Jadoogar]

Not adding talent.... Uh ok Keith

How can anyone watch these games and think the Raps are fine as far as talent is concerned lol?

So you are saying a healthy..

IQ
Trent or a decent replacement
RJB
SB
Poetel

With Olynyk, Abaji and Dick coming off the bench isn't the team good enough to make the Playoffs or the Play-in next season?
Now add in an actual backup point and Center and we ain't good enough?

Personally, I think the Raps will get Trent back.. they will look for some future picks.. already have possibly 3 this season.. trades incoming for sure..

Is the goal to make the play-in? Because if so, then yes we are close to grabbing that 10th seed.
Idk how you can watch the Celtics or any team in the west and think we're close to being a contender.

[ConSarnit]

The repeater tax and what these teams have that worth giving up are what's more important than the raw number of teams. I took a quick peek and saw teams like the C's, they could benefit from his expiry, but they don't fit as a trade partner for a few reasons.

I'm trying to think of realistic trade partners, and I'm not seeing too many tbh.

I'm assuming we're discussing Brown's deal?

If so, I've sort of reached the same conclusion as Scase. If we're going to use the Brown contract as way of bailing out other teams from the tax, that means we'll be taking on a significant amount of salary and I'm not sure that's best for us either. I guess it depends on the contract coming back and the asset attached to him but with the money being owed to Poeltl, Quickley's extension, Barnes extension, Barrett's money etc... we might be up against some issues ourselves.

This is what I'm struggling with as well. The only way it is beneficial for us, if we get some serious compensation to take on the returning salary. GSW makes sense theoretically, but is shedding a prospect and/or picks that could set back the inevitable rebuild by a couple years, worth the what 20-40mil they pay in repeater tax? Seems kinda short sighted for a team that was basically running a 400mil payroll, like does another 20-40mil even matter at that point?

My concern is our FO picks up Browns option to save face since the Siakam trade is already looking pretty bad, and letting him expire makes it look "worse". We are many years removed from the Masai who moved Bargs, or turned Vasquez into Norm, he hasn't really had any wins aside from the OG one recently, and that's suspect as well how much of that was him vs the OG/Knicks connection.

I don't think taking a salary dump really puts us up against it. I definitely agree that we would need to be paid reasonably well to do so.

Just looking at 2025/26, the combined salaries for Barnes, Barrett, Poeltl, IQ, Trent, Dick, Olynyk, Agbaji, #6, #19, #31 + '25 1st (tbd) would still put us nearly $24m under the tax line (assuming the cap goes up 10%). It seems like we could eat a $20m+ contract in 2025/26, maybe more if we move off of Trent or Olynyk before then (if Trent is re-signed).

The problem I see: the market for guys being dumped doesn't look that strong right now. Some of the tax teams would only have to dump $10m or less to clear the tax and the cost for them to do that won't be huge. It's tough to see who the "here's a 1st for player X's bad salary" guy is.

PHX: can't really pay anything worthwhile because they are so asset poor
BOS: seems like their big tax dodge move would be moving Brown and that's not a salary dump
DEN: Nnaji, who only makes $8.8m
MIN: would probably have to be Reid, who is not a dump because he's actually good
MIL: Connaughton, only makes $9.4m
MIA: Robinson, who is partially guaranteed in '25/26, so that doesn't make sense for Brown
GSW: could just waive CP3.

Might be best to look for the teams trying it make a splash in '2026 and help them clear some long term salary but even then who knows if such a team materializes.

The market for salary dumps isn't looking that great right now unless I'm missing something.

[SpezNc]

I am not sure why I didn’t know until now but I just came to the realization that mathematically it’s virtually impossible to extend Quickley (AAV b/w 25 to 30), exercise Brown option (23M), sign Trent (B/W full MLE to 20M) as well as rookie scale for #19 + rookie scale a top6 pick.

Obviously for many reasons the above scenario would not have made any sense anyway. I would argue in all scenarios (convey, not convey) the choice is likely either Trent is back, or Brown option is exercised but not both. Or even none of them back(my preferred choice TBH)

But I found it interesting that should we get lucky on the lottery, this would all but guarantee that both Trent/Brown aren’t going to be back.

what do you mean? we have bird rights so we can operate over the cap to bring brown/trent back and sign Quickley if that is the way FO prefers.

The luxury tax, see below a scenario that could bring us over the luxury taxes.

Obviously I said virtually impossible because Boucher could be traded or maybe Trent/Quick extend for less than expected. But Quick at over 25M + Trent + Brown at 23M + Rookie scale Pick #6 + rookie scale Pick 19 = trying to fit a square in a triangle. Not impossible but difficult. Hence virtually impossible. And then you have to think about Barnes incoming extension.

2023-24 Cap maximum summary
1 RJ Barrett $25,794,643
2 Scottie Barnes $10,130,980
3 Jakob Poeltl $19,500,000
4 Gradey Dick $4,763,760
5 Immanuel Quickley $25,500,000
6 Jalen McDaniels $4,741,800
7 Chris Boucher $10,810,000
8 Ochai Agbaji $4,310,280
9 Kelly Olynyk $12,804,878
10 Gary Trent Jr $15,000,000
11 Bruce Brown Jr $23,000,000
12 Gary Temple $2,093,637
13 Javon Freeman Liberty $1,891,857
14 Pick #6 —> $7,510,680
15 Pick #19 —> $3,475,200
Total $171,327,715
Cap $141,000,000
Cap space $(30,327,715)

Luxury tax $171,315,000
Luxury space $(12,715)

[Godaddycurse]

I am not sure why I didn’t know until now but I just came to the realization that mathematically it’s virtually impossible to extend Quickley (AAV b/w 25 to 30), exercise Brown option (23M), sign Trent (B/W full MLE to 20M) as well as rookie scale for #19 + rookie scale a top6 pick.

Obviously for many reasons the above scenario would not have made any sense anyway. I would argue in all scenarios (convey, not convey) the choice is likely either Trent is back, or Brown option is exercised but not both. Or even none of them back(my preferred choice TBH)

But I found it interesting that should we get lucky on the lottery, this would all but guarantee that both Trent/Brown aren’t going to be back.

what do you mean? we have bird rights so we can operate over the cap to bring brown/trent back and sign Quickley if that is the way FO prefers.

The luxury tax, see below a scenario that bring us luxury taxes.

Obviously I said virtually impossible because Boucher could be traded or maybe Trent/Quick send for less than expected. But Trent + Brown at 23M + Pick #6 + Pick 19 = trying to fit a square in a triangle. Not impossible but difficult.

2023-24 Cap maximum summary
1 RJ Barrett $25,794,643
2 Scottie Barnes $10,130,980
3 Jakob Poeltl $19,500,000
4 Gradey Dick $4,763,760
5 Immanuel Quickley $25,500,000
6 Jalen McDaniels $4,741,800
7 Chris Boucher $10,810,000
8 Ochai Agbaji $4,310,280
9 Kelly Olynyk $12,804,878
10 Gary Trent Jr $15,000,000
11 Bruce Brown Jr $23,000,000
12 Gary Temple $2,093,637
13 Javon Freeman Liberty $1,891,857
14 Pick #6 $7,510,680
15 Pick #19 $3,475,200
Cap hold $171,327,715
Cap $141,000,000
Cap space $(30,327,715)

Luxury tax $171,315,000
Luxury space $(12,715)

we would have more space if we keep a 14man roster (ie no temple)

[SpezNc]

what do you mean? we have bird rights so we can operate over the cap to bring brown/trent back and sign Quickley if that is the way FO prefers.

The luxury tax, see below a scenario that bring us luxury taxes.

Obviously I said virtually impossible because Boucher could be traded or maybe Trent/Quick send for less than expected. But Trent + Brown at 23M + Pick #6 + Pick 19 = trying to fit a square in a triangle. Not impossible but difficult.

2023-24 Cap maximum summary
1 RJ Barrett $25,794,643
2 Scottie Barnes $10,130,980
3 Jakob Poeltl $19,500,000
4 Gradey Dick $4,763,760
5 Immanuel Quickley $25,500,000
6 Jalen McDaniels $4,741,800
7 Chris Boucher $10,810,000
8 Ochai Agbaji $4,310,280
9 Kelly Olynyk $12,804,878
10 Gary Trent Jr $15,000,000
11 Bruce Brown Jr $23,000,000
12 Gary Temple $2,093,637
13 Javon Freeman Liberty $1,891,857
14 Pick #6 $7,510,680
15 Pick #19 $3,475,200
Cap hold $171,327,715
Cap $141,000,000
Cap space $(30,327,715)

Luxury tax $171,315,000
Luxury space $(12,715)

we would have more space if we keep a 14man roster (ie no temple)

Indeed but i don’t see us operating at 14 just to bring back Trent + Brown. Also should we get a top6 pick, it’s likely we will need playing minutes to give to that high pick. Making it unlikely we would want both of them back anyway.

Should the pick convey, then there is no issue as our second rounder will be much lower than rookie scale a top6 pick.

[SpezNc]

A Wiggins or DeAndre Hunter trade seems inevitable - any wing player that has 2 or 3 yrs left for an expiring

I would be intrigued with Hunter + Picks for Brown as long as we factor in Barnes extension prior (factoring in does not means extend but already making sure that space is available for 25-26).

[HumbleRen]

I think people who are expecting IQ to make mid 20’s are going to be in for a shock lol.

[Asif16]

1. Absorb Deandre Hunter with Pascal TPE
2. SIgn Tyus Jones with MLE
3. Sign James Wiseman to a low level contract

Immanuel Quickley / Tyus Jones
RJ Barrett / Gradey Dick
Deandre Hunter / Ochai
Scottie Barnes / Chri Boucher
Jakob Poetl / Wiseman

[OakleyDokely]

I think people who are expecting IQ to make mid 20’s are going to be in for a shock lol.

It might start in the mid 20s, but it won't end there.

[JB7]

I think people who are expecting IQ to make mid 20’s are going to be in for a shock lol.

It might start in the mid 20s, but it won't end there.

Can they do a 5 year deal with IQ? Would expect something like 5 years $150M.

[Rapsfan07]

A Wiggins or DeAndre Hunter trade seems inevitable - any wing player that has 2 or 3 yrs left for an expiring

I would be intrigued with Hunter + Picks for Brown as long as we factor in Barnes extension prior (factoring in does not means extend but already making sure that space is available for 25-26).

Can't see it. Unfortunately, the Hawks are pretty indebted to the Spurs from the Murray deal. IIRC, they don't have a FRp until 2028.

Plus, with the numbers as shown above, I can't see how the Raptors could rationalize taking on that much long term salary. Safe to say, unless Jalen Johnson is coming back, I don't think we should even be remotely considering it. It would probably be better to open up some capspace and make a run at Williams or acquire him via S&T than to consider taking back Hunter with whatever Atlanta can cobble together.

I think people who are expecting IQ to make mid 20’s are going to be in for a shock lol.

It might start in the mid 20s, but it won't end there.

Honestly, I'm hoping for $25M per flat or something that already averages out to that. I like Quick but I don't know if I'm totally sold and we have to be careful here with the money we're spending. We're not that far away from the lux tax in the near future and still a lot of holes and questions to address with this roster.

[Rapsfan07]

1. Absorb Deandre Hunter with Pascal TPE
2. SIgn Tyus Jones with MLE
3. Sign James Wiseman to a low level contract

Immanuel Quickley / Tyus Jones
RJ Barrett / Gradey Dick
Deandre Hunter / Ochai
Scottie Barnes / Chri Boucher
Jakob Poetl / Wiseman

Siakam TPE is not big enough to absorb Hunter and if we want to go the capspace route, we need to denounce the TPEs.

Best we could do is a Brown for Hunter swap with compensation coming back from the Hawks to account for Hunter's future money. Since they don't really have any picks, I imagine they'll probably sort the Murray/Young issue and then they might have enough to pay for a move like that.

[Rapsfan07]

I think people who are expecting IQ to make mid 20’s are going to be in for a shock lol.

It might start in the mid 20s, but it won't end there.

Can they do a 5 year deal with IQ? Would expect something like 5 years $150M.

Someone might need to correct me but I think you can only have one 5 year on your books, which will be going to Scottie.

Could be wrong about that though.

[HumbleRen]

I think people who are expecting IQ to make mid 20’s are going to be in for a shock lol.

It might start in the mid 20s, but it won't end there.

Can they do a 5 year deal with IQ? Would expect something like 5 years $150M.

It’ll be similar to Devin Vassell’s deal IMO.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=jjXxOoE4yWMd4fG6_-MQMQ

Hopefully no player option but Bobby gives them out like candy lol.

[JB7]

A Wiggins or DeAndre Hunter trade seems inevitable - any wing player that has 2 or 3 yrs left for an expiring

I would be intrigued with Hunter + Picks for Brown as long as we factor in Barnes extension prior (factoring in does not means extend but already making sure that space is available for 25-26).

Can't see it. Unfortunately, the Hawks are pretty indebted to the Spurs from the Murray deal. IIRC, they don't have a FRp until 2028.

Plus, with the numbers as shown above, I can't see how the Raptors could rationalize taking on that much long term salary. Safe to say, unless Jalen Johnson is coming back, I don't think we should even be remotely considering it. It would probably be better to open up some capspace and make a run at Williams or acquire him via S&T than to consider taking back Hunter with whatever Atlanta can cobble together.

I think people who are expecting IQ to make mid 20’s are going to be in for a shock lol.

It might start in the mid 20s, but it won't end there.

Honestly, I'm hoping for $25M per flat or something that already averages out to that. I like Quick but I don't know if I'm totally sold and we have to be careful here with the money we're spending. We're not that far away from the lux tax in the near future and still a lot of holes and questions to address with this roster.

Raps would be better off taking back Hunter or Wiggins deals, which only have 3 years left, then signing Williams to a 4 or 5 year deal that would probably be starting at $30M.

[OakleyDokely]

I think IQ's contract is pretty low risk regardless. You're getting his 25-29 years, which will probably be the best of his career, he has no history of serious injuries and he's pretty much a lock for 20/7/5 on solid efficiency, with the upside to better those totals.

[Scase]

A Wiggins or DeAndre Hunter trade seems inevitable - any wing player that has 2 or 3 yrs left for an expiring

I would be intrigued with Hunter + Picks for Brown as long as we factor in Barnes extension prior (factoring in does not means extend but already making sure that space is available for 25-26).

ATL would do better finding a buyer for Trae than sending us Hunter + compensation. They are going nowhere fast and don't have the capital to even give up. They have 2 firsts this year, and then nothing until 2028,I guess the best thing would be Brown + 19th for Hunter +10th?

But is hunters contract worth moving up 9 spots in a bad draft? I don't know, I just don't see many, if any teams that will benefit from this, including us.

[Pointgod]

I think the FO will take on some bad contracts this summer, as long as they can get back some 2025 and 2026 first round picks.

Something like...
Bruce Brown for John Collins + 2025 1st round Pick [CLE]

I’d love that but all this talk about trying to make the play in worries me