"4th quarter or overtime, less than 2 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 3 points"
http://www.82games.com/SCSORT11.HTM
This is probably a better indicator than the first batch, which used 5 minutes left and 5 points. Check out Chris and Jose's percentages. Also, Manu Ginobili is unreal.
"Super Clutch" stats
Moderators: Morris_Shatford, DG88, niQ, 7 Footer, lebron stopper, Reeko, Duffman100, HiJiNX, tsherkin
"Super Clutch" stats
-
Ted Lasso
- General Manager
- Posts: 8,276
- And1: 1,214
- Joined: Mar 17, 2008
-
-
raps4life~
- General Manager
- Posts: 7,664
- And1: 25
- Joined: Mar 13, 2007
- Location: California
-
-
Seasontickets
- Bench Warmer
- Posts: 1,407
- And1: 600
- Joined: Jan 01, 2005
-
Very interesting stats.
1) Bosh with a .333 pct FG% in super clutch moments. Along with a 78% FT%, less than his usual average.
2) Nowitzki is clutch, kinda. He needs 50% of his points to be passed to him, which means...he's not really money on iso plays. Also, he's an overall negative in plus minus which means, he's more often on the losing end of clutch moments.
3) I think that CP3 is still the player you want on the floor during crunch time.
High assists, many steals, CRAZY low turnovers 1.2 per 48?.
He could improve in FG% though.
4) Ginobili is coldblooded.
These stats are awesome.
1) Bosh with a .333 pct FG% in super clutch moments. Along with a 78% FT%, less than his usual average.
2) Nowitzki is clutch, kinda. He needs 50% of his points to be passed to him, which means...he's not really money on iso plays. Also, he's an overall negative in plus minus which means, he's more often on the losing end of clutch moments.
3) I think that CP3 is still the player you want on the floor during crunch time.
High assists, many steals, CRAZY low turnovers 1.2 per 48?.
He could improve in FG% though.
4) Ginobili is coldblooded.
These stats are awesome.
-
Schad
- Retired Mod
- Posts: 59,608
- And1: 18,692
- Joined: Feb 08, 2006
- Location: The Goat Rodeo
-
One thing to keep in mind before reaching any concrete conclusions: those are tiny sample sizes. With the exception of a few players, those minutes are equivalent to less than one game.
Take Billups, as an example: because the Pistons have a tendency to blow people out, he has just 33 minutes of 'super-clutch' playing time, and his resultant stats are pretty bad.
Same holds true for Bosh...while his +/- 5 under 5 ('normal clutch') stats are excellent, his 'super-clutch' are very poor simply because the latter represents such a small sample: that .333 mark is actually 5 for 15, and his free throw percentage is 7 of 9.
Take Billups, as an example: because the Pistons have a tendency to blow people out, he has just 33 minutes of 'super-clutch' playing time, and his resultant stats are pretty bad.
Same holds true for Bosh...while his +/- 5 under 5 ('normal clutch') stats are excellent, his 'super-clutch' are very poor simply because the latter represents such a small sample: that .333 mark is actually 5 for 15, and his free throw percentage is 7 of 9.
**** your asterisk.
-
ponder276
- Head Coach
- Posts: 6,075
- And1: 68
- Joined: Oct 14, 2007
Schadenfreude wrote:One thing to keep in mind before reaching any concrete conclusions: those are tiny sample sizes. With the exception of a few players, those minutes are equivalent to less than one game.
Take Billups, as an example: because the Pistons have a tendency to blow people out, he has just 33 minutes of 'super-clutch' playing time, and his resultant stats are pretty bad.
Same holds true for Bosh...while his +/- 5 under 5 ('normal clutch') stats are excellent, his 'super-clutch' are very poor simply because the latter represents such a small sample: that .333 mark is actually 5 for 15, and his free throw percentage is 7 of 9.
Agreed, this is an extremely small sample size. You can't really base anything off of 34 total minutes of play by Bosh. Their normal "clutch" stats, over a much better sample size (129 minutes for Bosh), show Bosh to be a very good clutch player. And "4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points" (the definition for their normal clutch stats) is still crunch time, without a doubt.
-
Ted Lasso
- General Manager
- Posts: 8,276
- And1: 1,214
- Joined: Mar 17, 2008
-
Schadenfreude wrote:One thing to keep in mind before reaching any concrete conclusions: those are tiny sample sizes. With the exception of a few players, those minutes are equivalent to less than one game.
Take Billups, as an example: because the Pistons have a tendency to blow people out, he has just 33 minutes of 'super-clutch' playing time, and his resultant stats are pretty bad.
Same holds true for Bosh...while his +/- 5 under 5 ('normal clutch') stats are excellent, his 'super-clutch' are very poor simply because the latter represents such a small sample: that .333 mark is actually 5 for 15, and his free throw percentage is 7 of 9.
Considering the conditions required, how many games those minutes are spread over, and the fact that the body of work in question is now an entire NBA season, it's difficult to say that the sample sizes are tiny.
Total "Super Clutch" minutes over a season, because of the very nature of the concept, will never make for a satisfactory sample size.
One could concentrate on a player's entire career, i suppose. It would be interesting to see whether there are fluctuations or if "clutchness" is a real trait or skill.
-
Schad
- Retired Mod
- Posts: 59,608
- And1: 18,692
- Joined: Feb 08, 2006
- Location: The Goat Rodeo
-
Chandler Bing wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
Considering the conditions required, how many games those minutes are spread over, and the fact that the body of work in question is now an entire NBA season, it's difficult to say that the sample sizes are tiny.
The number of months over which those 30 minutes and 15 shots are spread have absolutely no bearing on the sample size. The fact that it took Larry Hughes five months to become the clutchiest passer who ever did play (in 16 minutes) doesn't make it any less silly.
Total "Super Clutch" minutes over a season, because of the very nature of the concept, will never make for a satisfactory sample size.
One could concentrate on a player's entire career, i suppose. It would be interesting to see whether there are fluctuations or if "clutchness" is a real trait or skill.
Absolutely...these stats are never going to have much bearing, because 20-30 shots simply isn't enough to gauge a player. There is only one player who almost approaches a sample large enough to be statistically relevant is LeBron: 61 shots. That's still very small, in the grand scheme.
**** your asterisk.
-
Ted Lasso
- General Manager
- Posts: 8,276
- And1: 1,214
- Joined: Mar 17, 2008
-
[quote="Schadenfreude"]-= original quote snipped =-
I fully agree with the points you make. But we have to keep in mind the nature of this exercise. I, personally, would refrain from using sample size to question this particular study because there are only so many opportunities to be "clutch" during a season. Unless numbers for entire careers are available, this is what we have to go with. Better this than reputation.
Edit: Perhaps this is a better way of making my argument..... I am satisfied with the sample size because players are judged as clutch or not by the media, fans, coaches, and other players by what they are reputed to have done in these limited opportunities. So if 82games can show me what they really did in those clutch situations, then i am happy.
I fully agree with the points you make. But we have to keep in mind the nature of this exercise. I, personally, would refrain from using sample size to question this particular study because there are only so many opportunities to be "clutch" during a season. Unless numbers for entire careers are available, this is what we have to go with. Better this than reputation.
Edit: Perhaps this is a better way of making my argument..... I am satisfied with the sample size because players are judged as clutch or not by the media, fans, coaches, and other players by what they are reputed to have done in these limited opportunities. So if 82games can show me what they really did in those clutch situations, then i am happy.
