The 0,7% wins. Pick or Trade?

millslapper · Post #1 » by **millslapper** » Tue May 19, 2015 10:15 am

Let's assume the Jazz win the Lottery!

Would you pick? Or trade down a bit because of teamneed?

Or would you trade for the desired superstar (All-Star!) if it is possible?

bucephalus · Post #2 » by **bucephalus** » Tue May 19, 2015 10:53 am

I think that there is no way any team would trade a superstar for this year's no. 1. The way I define superstar (someone who could be the best player on a championship team and is currently in their prime) is essentially what you want out of a guy who goes no. 1 overall, and if you have a guy who is currently like that there is no way you trade him for someone who could possibly be that in the future. Andrew Wiggins, the no. 1 last year, was/is considered a better prospect than anyone at the top this year, and he was part of a package that netted Kevin Love (who is a good player, just not someone who could be the best player on a champion). If you changed the phrasing to "trade for an All-Star," I think that's more accurate as to what the Jazz (or anyone) could get in return for the no. 1 pick.

As for the choice, I voted to just make the pick. There are enough future studs at the top of the draft that the Jazz can be happy taking any one of them. Sure, they can shop the pick to see if there's any interest league-wide, but ultimately I don't think there would be any trades where the return would potentially be as great. And the Jazz don't need to trade down for "fit" because there are no glaring holes in this roster that could be addressed by a lesser prospect. They're set at all five starting positions (and if you think 1 or 2 is iffy, you can take Russell or Mudiay with 1), there is no need to trade down.

BudTugly · Post #3 » by **BudTugly** » Tue May 19, 2015 12:57 pm

I don't think you can trade any single pick for an established top player.

millslapper · Post #4 » by **millslapper** » Tue May 19, 2015 1:24 pm

ok. it is more a theoretical approach...assuming it is possible. which players could be available and so on.

bucephalus · Post #5 » by **bucephalus** » Tue May 19, 2015 1:35 pm

millslapper wrote:ok. it is more a theoretical approach...assuming it is possible. which players could be available and so on.

Yeah that's an interesting question. I would phrase it, "What players could be had for a package including the number 1 pick?" It would have to be a player who is an All-Star (otherwise, why bother trading for him) whose future is controlled by his team for at least three years (or who the team getting him is confident they can re-sign), ideally he's younger than 30, in his prime or near it, but whose future with his current franchise is so foggy that he could be had for the right price. So you couldn't get a stud like Davis, Curry, Harden, etc. because their team isn't trading them. I think Cousins' situation in Sacramento is interesting, but the Kings are unlikely to part with him this summer. I would say the best guy you could get would be Damian Lillard, maybe a S&T for Jimmy Butler at a later date (if that's legal) if Reinsdorf decides he never wants to pay the tax.

AingesBurner · Post #6 » by **AingesBurner** » Tue May 19, 2015 3:29 pm

Trade it for KD.

Post #7 » by **MHSL82** » Tue May 19, 2015 3:55 pm

Would you trade a locked in 11th pick for a 12th pick that had a chance at the first pick overall? (Assuming you were the 11th best team)?

10th for the 11th with that chance? 9th for the 10th? Etc.

How high would that percentage (0.7 in this case) have to be to make that trade? 10%. Assume it's 12th or 1st (nothing in-between).

Post #8 » by **MHSL82** » Tue May 19, 2015 4:03 pm

GobertReport wrote:Trade it for KD.

But how would he handle a small market? Just kidding.

sipclip · Post #9 » by **sipclip** » Tue May 19, 2015 5:32 pm

bucephalus wrote:I think that there is no way any team would trade a superstar for this year's no. 1. The way I define superstar (someone who could be the best player on a championship team and is currently in their prime) is essentially what you want out of a guy who goes no. 1 overall, and if you have a guy who is currently like that there is no way you trade him for someone who could possibly be that in the future. Andrew Wiggins, the no. 1 last year, was/is considered a better prospect than anyone at the top this year, and he was part of a package that netted Kevin Love (who is a good player, just not someone who could be the best player on a champion). If you changed the phrasing to "trade for an All-Star," I think that's more accurate as to what the Jazz (or anyone) could get in return for the no. 1 pick.

As for the choice, I voted to just make the pick. There are enough future studs at the top of the draft that the Jazz can be happy taking any one of them. Sure, they can shop the pick to see if there's any interest league-wide, but ultimately I don't think there would be any trades where the return would potentially be as great. And the Jazz don't need to trade down for "fit" because there are no glaring holes in this roster that could be addressed by a lesser prospect. They're set at all five starting positions (and if you think 1 or 2 is iffy, you can take Russell or Mudiay with 1), there is no need to trade down.

If Wiggins were in this draft Towns would still be the #1 pick without a doubt. In fact if Wiggins were in this draft I think there is a pretty good chance that he would go behind Okafor and Russell as well. I think this draft pretty much blows last years draft away.

I think there would be one trade that would make sense to possibly move down and it would be a deal with the lakers if they had the 3rd pick but really wanted Towns and Russell dropped to 3. I would do Towns for Russell and Julius Randle. We get a possible future star guard and very good backup pf prospect.

sipclip · Post #10 » by **sipclip** » Tue May 19, 2015 5:40 pm

If we get the top pick then we take Towns and enjoy the future dynasty that will come.

babyjax13 · Post #11 » by **babyjax13** » Tue May 19, 2015 6:14 pm

bucephalus wrote:I think that there is no way any team would trade a superstar for this year's no. 1. The way I define superstar (someone who could be the best player on a championship team and is currently in their prime) is essentially what you want out of a guy who goes no. 1 overall, and if you have a guy who is currently like that there is no way you trade him for someone who could possibly be that in the future. Andrew Wiggins, the no. 1 last year, was/is considered a better prospect than anyone at the top this year, and he was part of a package that netted Kevin Love (who is a good player, just not someone who could be the best player on a champion). If you changed the phrasing to "trade for an All-Star," I think that's more accurate as to what the Jazz (or anyone) could get in return for the no. 1 pick.

As for the choice, I voted to just make the pick. There are enough future studs at the top of the draft that the Jazz can be happy taking any one of them. Sure, they can shop the pick to see if there's any interest league-wide, but ultimately I don't think there would be any trades where the return would potentially be as great. And the Jazz don't need to trade down for "fit" because there are no glaring holes in this roster that could be addressed by a lesser prospect. They're set at all five starting positions (and if you think 1 or 2 is iffy, you can take Russell or Mudiay with 1), there is no need to trade down.

I don't think Wiggins would be a consensus top pick in a draft with Towns. Not saying that he wouldn't go first (that's obviously where he would be selected hindsight being 20/20), just that Towns would be in the conversation - and clearly above Parker. Parker, likewise, would be in the same conversation with Okafor/Russell to go #2.

AingesBurner · Post #12 » by **AingesBurner** » Tue May 19, 2015 7:04 pm

I think we trade it for a player like KD in all fairness, I bet Lindsey doesnt want to add another rookie, even a high profile rookie.

SoCalJazzFan · Post #13 » by **SoCalJazzFan** » Tue May 19, 2015 7:38 pm

I think Towns could end up being great. However, would it be a good idea for the Jazz to try to play Favors and Towns together, splitting time? Would it be a good idea for the Jazz to trade Favors (who is a top 10 PF in the league, has a favorable contract, is experienced and likes Utah) with the hope that Towns will be a better player and want to stay in Utah in the future?

However, if the Jazz could trade the rights to Towns to another team for Mudiay or Russell (or whomever) and get a future pick or player and retain all the current players, I have to wonder if the Jazz wouldn't be better off in this particular case, which is why I voted trade down.

bucephalus · Post #14 » by **bucephalus** » Tue May 19, 2015 8:49 pm

babyjax13 wrote:
bucephalus wrote:I think that there is no way any team would trade a superstar for this year's no. 1. The way I define superstar (someone who could be the best player on a championship team and is currently in their prime) is essentially what you want out of a guy who goes no. 1 overall, and if you have a guy who is currently like that there is no way you trade him for someone who could possibly be that in the future. Andrew Wiggins, the no. 1 last year, was/is considered a better prospect than anyone at the top this year, and he was part of a package that netted Kevin Love (who is a good player, just not someone who could be the best player on a champion). If you changed the phrasing to "trade for an All-Star," I think that's more accurate as to what the Jazz (or anyone) could get in return for the no. 1 pick.

As for the choice, I voted to just make the pick. There are enough future studs at the top of the draft that the Jazz can be happy taking any one of them. Sure, they can shop the pick to see if there's any interest league-wide, but ultimately I don't think there would be any trades where the return would potentially be as great. And the Jazz don't need to trade down for "fit" because there are no glaring holes in this roster that could be addressed by a lesser prospect. They're set at all five starting positions (and if you think 1 or 2 is iffy, you can take Russell or Mudiay with 1), there is no need to trade down.

I don't think Wiggins would be a consensus top pick in a draft with Towns. Not saying that he wouldn't go first (that's obviously where he would be selected hindsight being 20/20), just that Towns would be in the conversation - and clearly above Parker. Parker, likewise, would be in the same conversation with Okafor/Russell to go #2.

I wasn't talking just about hindsight re: Wiggins. I agree he wouldn't be consensus no. 1 (only a generational player usually is), but that wasn't what I was saying. I said that he was considered the better prospect. Last year people saw his potential as a top 5-10 player in the league while the guys at the top of this draft are more considered to be potential perennial All-Stars. But I think if you have a big and a wing at the top of the draft you're always going to have a conversation as to who will go first because you really can't compare the two, thus no real consensus. In my opinion, Wiggins would be the heavy favorite over Towns, though.