The Kevin Durrant Long Shot

[blackham9258]

Kevin Durrant (if he returns to full health) will be the top free agent prize next summer, since Lebron seems tied to his home town.

The question is will he stay or will he go? My bet is that he is 90% likely to stay in OKC. You don't donate $1M to tornado ravaged Oklahoma residents like KD did without feeling a sense of ownership in your community. But I do think there are some scenarios where Durrant moves on from OKC. I will address just of few of those now:

1) Major injury to Westbrook or Ibaka
2) Breakdown of current team due to coaching, roster chemistry, and ability to compete
3) Another failed season and Westbrook tells KD he is likely to go after the next year
4) Chemistry with new coach and front office becomes tenuous over non moves and tax moves etc.

The next step: assess which teams he would be interested in going to:

Teams under consideration (and my two cents): First off, I think he will likely pick a team (if he moves) that has complimentary pieces in place. He has to have a solid roster from top to bottom. One that isn't aging too rapidly as he heads into his prime and one that isn't too young that while he is in his prime his teammates wouldn't be ready. He also needs a couple running mates that can be legitimate 2nd and 3rd fiddles to him. Its a little bit of a red riding hood test... Some porridge is too hot.... too cold... and just right, if you follow the thinking. Some teams are just too old while others are just too young, and some may not be good fits as far as the make up of the total roster.

East Options:
Miami-he will seriously consider but like Lebron passed on being in Jordon's legacy town of Chicago, I think Durrant would skip Miami for similar reasons... but I would not be shocked. Ultimately despite having some upside that is young, too much of the roster is aging and on their final contract.

Orlando- I think this would be a good fit for him and he should consider. He should also consider because they are young and can stay together for a long time, but they lack currently even a third fiddle. Ultimately I think the porridge is to cold.

Washington- It being his hometown is the biggest draw or the reason people feel he will seriously consider the Wiz. In Washington he would have a great 2nd fiddle in Wall, and 3rd fiddle in Beal. But the lack of a young frontcourt that will age well with him might be a reason to be skeptical of this choice. This is where the total roster construction would be concerning.

New York, Milwakee, Brooklyn, Detroit, Toronto, Chicago, Boston, Charlotte, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Indiana are all no's to me because I think the teams are just headed in the wrong direction or not there yet with viable 2nd and 3rd options.

East Summary: Ultimately I think Durrant wants to face Lebron in the Finals, not the eastern conference finals. I just think if he leaves OKC it will be to another western team.

West Options: Besides OKC

Houston: I think this would be the top option. I think Houston would present the best and quickest option to a championship. A resigned and healthy Dwight Howard, and reuniting with his buddy Harden would make for a fierce combination. Add in the fact that its Texas where he spent college, no state tax etc and I think this is the most likely non OKC option. He may not choose however because James has become the man himself and is a bonafide MVP candidate himself. If Durrant is one to win a championship he can call his own he may not choose Houston. He may also see Houston as a Lebron type bandwagon move like Lebron buddying up with Wade in Miami.

San Antonio: Maybe. I would never put it past the Spurs for all the reasons we all know. But, I also think Durrant would feel like he is just bandwagoning here too.

The following teams are no's for the following reasons: LAL-too young, LAC-too old, GSW-bandwagon, Portland-Not ready, Phoenix-not ready and no 2nd fiddle, Sacramento-Demarcus Cousins, Minnesota-too young, Denver-messed up, Dallas-too old, no second or third fiddle, wrong direction.

Memphis- solid maybe. Not the craziest idea. Best center in basketball, unselfish, good PG, good supporting cast with flexibility. Why not. With KD could definately win.

New Orleans- Ok just the shear idea of KD and AD together. Nuff said.

Utah- Okay so it is a long shot, but we have like 3 2nd fiddles in Gordon, Favs, and Rudy. Plus a potential star in Exum and a very good Burks etc. I think we will impress this year and if KD is looking for a young team to grow with I could see him fielding a meeting with Utah if the 10% chance of him leaving becomes a reality.

As I look at the construction of the teams and what I think he should be looking for, the Utah Jazz have about the best team to match up with as any other.

My top 5 for him: Houston, New Orleans, Utah, San Antonio, Washington

I know its a pipe dream, but I honestly believe that if we take the next step this year we are a scoring star away from being a contender. I think KD is a thoughtful guy. I think he cares about his legacy and what his departure would mean. If he feels its best to leave I think it will be in a very reasoned and thought out way. He remembers how Lebron was villified for the way he left and that he left. I also remember when KD stayed all he did was post a picture and made the simple comment that he was staying. If circumstances change in OKC, that a departure could happen I think he will look long and hard at the kind of team he wants to be a part of. I don't think he will be rushing off to create a super team. I think he wants to lead a team to a championship, not a clique.

I don't think he is one to chase the big lights, or to simply hop on the bandwagon. I think Utah may show something this year to free agents to make free agents truly consider the Jazz. Things will have to turn in our favor for us to catch on, but I don't think it would be crazy to see Utah exceed expectations this year as the next up and coming well coached team to compete for the west and then have a guy like Durrant decide to jump on board as the Man.

Utah is the one team from my top 5 that he would immediately become the man on day one! In Houston he would be in the shadow of his former teammate. In Nola he would be in the shadow of AD. Washington is the one team that I don't think he could win with out of the 5, and San Antonio just seems like too much of a bandwagon play.

To be the man, the only STAR like Lebron was during the finals..Kevin Durrant could choose us, and Dennis Lindsay will have gotten his Reggie White. The guy that Dennis always talks about as the guy that changed the perception of Green Bay to outsiders. I think Dennis will make a play next summer. Will KD listen? Time will tell.

[Paper Face]

I believe he is more concerned with winning than he is with stardom and location. His willingness to re-sign with OKC in the first place shows that.

There may be an outside chance. A slim one, but its there. Rudy & Faves mean a lot.

[pickIBL]

All thinks considered, if you want to start a long shot thread... start with Mike Conley.

[goober]

Ooooo would I love me to have some Mike Conley on this team


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[DelaneyRudd]

I think he'd be a guy who'd resign in Utah, but there's no particular reason this team is more poised to break out than many other teams. At that point I think familiarity with Texas or the allure of a big market wins out.

[bondom34]

FWIW, I don't think he's too familiar w/ Texas . Oklahoma though he is! Best to you all, hoping Burke plays well, would love to see you in the PO.

[stitches]

I think OKC(I'd say huge favourite), Washington(underdog) and possibly GSW(very distant possibility) would be the real contenders for his signing. We need to make some crazy push and make some noise in the playoffs for him to even think twice about us.

[AingesBurner]

The thing Utah has going for it is youth and depth more so than GSW, Washington, and even OKC.

[StocktonShorts]

If we promise to spell his name right maybe he'll talk to us.

[Inigo Montoya]

If we promise to spell his name right maybe he'll talk to us.

I don't think so. An imaginary Durrant is a long shot to end up in Utah. The real Durant is an impossibility.

[StocktonShorts]

If we promise to spell his name right maybe he'll talk to us.

I don't think so. An imaginary Durrant is a long shot to end up in Utah. The real Durant is an impossibility.

Maybe this thread is really about former BYU player Devin Durrant.