We're going to be awful in 2024

[bkohler]

I didn't know another way to title this but I think we're going to be very surprised by how bad our team is in 2024. We've fallen into the 2013-2014 Suns trap where we play way above what we probably should (great) and have some players stand out (awesome), but I don't think that Danny is the type that will let those two things make him think he has a contender when he doesn't.

I'm fully expecting a Jazz team anchored around our three untouchables, sexton, two or three contracts we eat to gain assets (Bertans, Robinson, and Simmons?), and 3 draft picks to play entertaining and overall unfruitful basketball next year as we cruise to a top 3 pick.

This is going to surprise lots of people when it happens because they'll expect a repeat of this year but I just don't see that happening.

Plus 24' pick is top ten protected so it gives even more incentive for us to be completely off the fence this coming year. Obviously, this could change with the right lottery luck and or with the right star asking out but signs point toward us feeling the pain we thought we'd feel this year, next year.

What do you think? Are we better or worse next year?

[AingesBurner]

Let’s have this conversation around the draft.

[CAE15]

Lor of turnover is possible and who knows we could improve the team in the offseason. I don't know that we can be bottom 3 though with how much Hardy has kicked ass at being a head coach

[bkohler]

Lor of turnover is possible and who knows we could improve the team in the offseason. I don't know that we can be bottom 3 though with how much Hardy has kicked ass at being a head coach

That is probably true - Hardy is awesome

[bkohler]

Let’s have this conversation around the draft.

I gotta start managing expectations (my own mainly) early!

[Inigo Montoya]

I don't think we will be awful next season. If the Jazz wanted to be awful, this was the year to do it. I think Ainge will try to consolidate some assets to bring in another disgruntled star when one becomes available. I also think he'll probably sign Clarkson to a new contract in the $22M per year range because the owner wants him to (Smith really likes Clarkson).

[BigJimFinn]

I don't think we will be awful next season. If the Jazz wanted to be awful, this was the year to do it. I think Ainge will try to consolidate some assets to bring in another disgruntled star when one becomes available. I also think he'll probably sign Clarkson to a new contract in the $22M per year range because the owner wants him to (Smith really likes Clarkson).

I don't buy that Jazz would be serious tankers next season, even if they give the new rookie crop plenty of time.
Lottery is still probable, unless the vet contracts they should absorb into cap space are still good players, or if they manage to trade for that disgruntled star who doesn't get even more disgruntled about landing in Utah.

However, I find it hard to believe that Ainge would allow the owner to influence basketball decisions. That never ends well,
and Smith liking Clarkson as a long-term piece is a good reminder why. He could become quite hard to trade with such a contract, and would eat into the space needed for major facilitation moves. Despite the few early flashes, I don't see JC ever being a starter for a serious playoff team; his undisciplined high-usage game and poor D is a better fit for teams with no winning expectations like the Jazz right now, or a microwave bench scorer role. So giving him solid starter level money for 3 or more years is not a good idea.

[dautjazz]

Way to early to tell, we're going to have a lot of cap space this summer, so we're going to get some talent, and ofcourse we got 3 FRPs. We got so many young players who will naturally improve as well, especially our rookies.

[FranchisePlayer]

Only if Sexton is our starting PG.

[bkohler]

Only if Sexton is our starting PG.

Yeah, we’re going to be awful.

[Jammer]

If the Jazz can stay out of the Top 10 in either 2024 or 2025, and actually convey a pick to OKC, then in 2026 the Jazz will be able to execute a swap with Cleveland or Minnesota if either Minnesota or Cleveland blow.

The way the OKC pick works is that it's Top 10 Protected in 2024, 2025 and 2026 - otherwise the Jazz keep it.

I suspect that the Jazz would like to convey a pick to OKC in one of the next 2 years to be able to execute a swap in 2026. I wouldn't expect the Jazz to be bottom 10 in 2026 with three 1rst Round picks in 2025.

The Jazz will have a boatload of cap room in 2023 to sign Free Agents with now that they've jettisoned Conley, Vanderbilt, NAW and Beasley. The Jazz can selectively add as needed, and I expect Jordan Clarkson to be re-signed for 4 years $80-86 Million WITHOUT a Player Option in Year 4.

Your rotation next year is not as weak as you think when you factor in three 1rst Round picks. The Jazz will almost certainly draft a PG, an SF and a PF or C. The Jazz don't have any picks in 2024 unless they are in the bottom 10 Teams NEXT year.

Personally as a conspiracy theorist I consider the Jazz as one of the 3 most logical places for Victor Webanyama to end up (the others being Toronto and Golden State). But in order to believe in NBA conspiracy theory you would have to believe that Billionaires would actually place the Top picks, like running a corporate business, rather than having the Top talents end up someplace by CHANCE. If you doubt this, go watch the Patrick Ewing draft (7 footer out of Georgetown) to New York in 1985, when Commissioner David Stern dealt envelopes with the first SEVEN picks to Team representatives. Someone handed Commissioner Stern a stack of 7 envelopes, with 1 envelope having a corner angled at 90 degrees to the front. He shuffled and shuffled and shuffled, ALWAYS KEEPING THE ENVELOPE WITH THE UPTURNED CORNER ON TOP, and then the envelope with the 90 degree upturned corner was handed to the New Yorks Knicks Team President before dealing out the six remaining envelopes. Stern could have simply said "Here's Ewing" for the #1 Pick that year. I still can't believe that the NBA let that happen on live TV, with the upturned corner of the #1 pick envelope so prominently visible.

Center
Walker Kessler
Free Agent
Damian Jones (Player Option that will likely be exercised)

PF
Kelly Olynyk
1rst Round Pick
Simone Fontecchio

SF
Laurie Markkanen
1rst Round Pick
Rudy Gay

SG
Jordan Clarkson (Free Agent likely to be re-signed)
Ochai Agbaji
G Leaguer or Undrafted Player

PG
Collin Sexton
1rst Round Pick
Talen-Horton Tucker

[FranchisePlayer]

Only if Sexton is our starting PG.

Yeah, we’re going to be awful.

The way Markkanen has played all season.

The rate Kessler keeps on developing.

The way Clarkson has played the last month (if they can agree on the contract issues).

The way THT has played the last games.

The addition of Dunn and the way he's come out of the gates.

Conclusion: we cannot be awful in 2024 even if you throw Sexton in there and give Gay starting minutes.

They're fun to watch, they're building a good team culture before our eyes and logically, individually they'll be better come the next season.

[red4hf]

Only if Sexton is our starting PG.

Yeah, we’re going to be awful.

The way Markkanen has played all season.

The rate Kessler keeps on developing.

The way Clarkson has played the last month (if they can agree on the contract issues).

The way THT has played the last games.

The addition of Dunn and the way he's come out of the gates.

Conclusion: we cannot be awful in 2024 even if you throw Sexton in there and give Gay starting minutes.

They're fun to watch, they're building a good team culture before our eyes and logically, individually they'll be better come the next season.

Exactly..... There's a lot of reasons why we're not going to awful next year......

[TNJazz]

After watching the Spurs game, the grit the Jazz play with will be super important in the long game. They decided early on not to position themselves exclusively to be in the Wemby sweepstakes, which I feel will be a terrific decision over time. His frame will not hold up and injuries will inevitably come into play. He doesn't have the build to stand the rigors of big bodies banging, and while he looks to be an incredible player, there have been several who have come into the league, gotten injured, and never lived up to the hype. Shane Bradley comes to mind, as does Zion, Greg Oden, the kid from Ganzaga who was hurt this summer and a host of others.

But building a winning culture through grit and toughness, that will stay as part of the DNA, something the Jazz lost during the Corbin years. No one liked coming into the Delta Center during Sloan's run, for fear of him taking you out , never mind about Stockton's toughness and Malone's abilities. This team has gotten some of that back and they are really fun to watch. Being down by 14, winning by 16...toughness. The Spurs players don't have that toughness and grit experience and when everything hinges on 1 guy, who then gets hurt, they won't have anything to fall back on and that will be another lost season. That is why I don't think they Jazz will be bad next year. They are setting themselves up to be winners even if (when) they don't win the Wemby raffle. Now jut think where they will be if by some ridiculous miracle they do end up winning the lottery...

[bkohler]

The Jazz have been awesome this year but also have had excellent injury luck and have no guarantee to retain Clarkson, Dunn or THT plus are entering one of the worst free agent classes in recent memory.

Since their hot start they’re actually 22-28 in their last 50 games - including games with Conley/Vando/Beasley. We've also faced a surprisingly weak western conference this year.

Hardy, Kessler and Lauri might be enough to keep us decent but I’m still skeptical.

[AingesBurner]

The Jazz have been awesome this year but also have had excellent injury luck and have no guarantee to retain Clarkson, Dunn or THT plus are entering one of the worst free agent classes in recent memory.

Since their hot start they’re actually 22-28 in their last 50 games - including games with Conley/Vando/Beasley. We've also faced a surprisingly weak western conference this year.

Hardy, Kessler and Lauri might be enough to keep us decent but I’m still skeptical.

THT has a player option and why wouldn’t he stay with a coach finally showing his potential for a bigger contract? Dunn was in the G-League, so same idea as THT? Smaller markets provide larger player error without being benched, which is great for player development.

Sexton is hopefully at Stockton or D-Will boot camp this summer, maybe both! Clarkson is the only flight risk but he’s 30, do you want to pay a 30 year old 6th man 20 mill plus? Probably not.

[bkohler]

The Jazz have been awesome this year but also have had excellent injury luck and have no guarantee to retain Clarkson, Dunn or THT plus are entering one of the worst free agent classes in recent memory.

Since their hot start they’re actually 22-28 in their last 50 games - including games with Conley/Vando/Beasley. We've also faced a surprisingly weak western conference this year.

Hardy, Kessler and Lauri might be enough to keep us decent but I’m still skeptical.

THT has a player option and why wouldn’t he stay with a coach finally showing his potential for a bigger contract? Dunn was in the G-League, so same idea as THT? Smaller markets provide larger player error without being benched, which is great for player development.

Sexton is hopefully at Stockton or D-Will boot camp this summer, maybe both! Clarkson is the only flight risk but he’s 30, do you want to pay a 30 year old 6th man 20 mill plus? Probably not.

I don't disagree - but a team with Sexton/THT/Dunn as your guard lineup isn't a playoff team. It's a lottery team.

I agree completely with you on Clarkson, I love him but I love him at 12M a year. Much more than that and it gets dicey.

[AingesBurner]

The Jazz have been awesome this year but also have had excellent injury luck and have no guarantee to retain Clarkson, Dunn or THT plus are entering one of the worst free agent classes in recent memory.

Since their hot start they’re actually 22-28 in their last 50 games - including games with Conley/Vando/Beasley. We've also faced a surprisingly weak western conference this year.

Hardy, Kessler and Lauri might be enough to keep us decent but I’m still skeptical.

THT has a player option and why wouldn’t he stay with a coach finally showing his potential for a bigger contract? Dunn was in the G-League, so same idea as THT? Smaller markets provide larger player error without being benched, which is great for player development.

Sexton is hopefully at Stockton or D-Will boot camp this summer, maybe both! Clarkson is the only flight risk but he’s 30, do you want to pay a 30 year old 6th man 20 mill plus? Probably not.

I don't disagree - but a team with Sexton/THT/Dunn as your guard lineup isn't a playoff team. It's a lottery team.

I agree completely with you on Clarkson, I love him but I love him at 12M a year. Much more than that and it gets dicey.

You are judging those PG’s without a summer of development. Sexton never had the chance to and same with THT.

[bkohler]

THT has a player option and why wouldn’t he stay with a coach finally showing his potential for a bigger contract? Dunn was in the G-League, so same idea as THT? Smaller markets provide larger player error without being benched, which is great for player development.

Sexton is hopefully at Stockton or D-Will boot camp this summer, maybe both! Clarkson is the only flight risk but he’s 30, do you want to pay a 30 year old 6th man 20 mill plus? Probably not.

I don't disagree - but a team with Sexton/THT/Dunn as your guard lineup isn't a playoff team. It's a lottery team.

I agree completely with you on Clarkson, I love him but I love him at 12M a year. Much more than that and it gets dicey.

You are judging those PG’s without a summer of development. Sexton never had the chance to and same with THT.

Sure, but relying on either to make the jump to a starting PG seems highly unlikely to me. Sexton is more of a SG in a PG body and (I think the team knows this) is best suited as a 6th man. Hopefully, he proves me wrong. THT is exactly the same player he was with the Lakers. He just has the ball in his hands more often. I don't think he's bad by any means, I think he's just an 8-9th man on a good team.

The truth is that besides Lauri and Walker, we're really short on high-end long-term talent, and there's not a lot out there on the free agent market this year. Unless a star wants out and wants to come to UTA it feels like we'll get what we expected this year to be just next year. Especially if Lauri misses time, he's close to breaking his own personal most games played in a single season mark right now, so his track record has normally been missing about 1/4 of the games each season. If he returns to that form next year, the Jazz would be toast.


Don't get me wrong; this isn't an incitement on this team at all - I love how hard they play and love what Hardy's done with them. I think it's just a high likelihood, based on past experience with overperforming teams, that this type of play is a flash in the pan and not sustainable next year. (Or even this year, as without the blazing hot start, we wouldn't be anywhere near the playoffs).

Couple with the lack of quality options in free agency, the fact that we'll probably roster at least three rookies next year, the relative lack of high-quality talent, and that Lauri is probably not going to be healthy the entire season makes me very bearish on where we are next year.

[FranchisePlayer]

I don't disagree - but a team with Sexton/THT/Dunn as your guard lineup isn't a playoff team. It's a lottery team.

I agree completely with you on Clarkson, I love him but I love him at 12M a year. Much more than that and it gets dicey.

You are judging those PG’s without a summer of development. Sexton never had the chance to and same with THT.

Sure, but relying on either to make the jump to a starting PG seems highly unlikely to me. Sexton is more of a SG in a PG body and (I think the team knows this) is best suited as a 6th man. Hopefully, he proves me wrong. THT is exactly the same player he was with the Lakers. He just has the ball in his hands more often. I don't think he's bad by any means, I think he's just an 8-9th man on a good team.

The truth is that besides Lauri and Walker, we're really short on high-end long-term talent, and there's not a lot out there on the free agent market this year. Unless a star wants out and wants to come to UTA it feels like we'll get what we expected this year to be just next year. Especially if Lauri misses time, he's close to breaking his own personal most games played in a single season mark right now, so his track record has normally been missing about 1/4 of the games each season. If he returns to that form next year, the Jazz would be toast.


Don't get me wrong; this isn't an incitement on this team at all - I love how hard they play and love what Hardy's done with them. I think it's just a high likelihood, based on past experience with overperforming teams, that this type of play is a flash in the pan and not sustainable next year. (Or even this year, as without the blazing hot start, we wouldn't be anywhere near the playoffs).

Couple with the lack of quality options in free agency, the fact that we'll probably roster at least three rookies next year, the relative lack of high-quality talent, and that Lauri is probably not going to be healthy the entire season makes me very bearish on where we are next year.

Lauri missing out so many games in previous years was completely the result of bad player development, bad advice how to physically improve himself, terrible medical staff by the Bulls. That franchise is a joke when it comes to keeping their players fit.

Don't commit yourself to the false narrative that Lauri is injury prone without any context. Lauri has played all season big minutes, hard, and as of late he's been really seeking for body contact to get to the line.